I've always been a Manning supporter in these arguments. He's been #2 for a while now. And Young for that matter, top 5.The other side of coin with Manning is this list of QBs who faced Brady in the postseason...I'm only listing the players that were (a) MVPs and, (b) probable Hall of Famers. I'm leaving off the sub-par/average QBs whose teams were already stacked, hence they were in the game...those guys were the team's kryptonite but also every team's kryptonite.
Peyton Manning (Won 3 times, 3-2)
Philip Rivers (Did not beat Brady, 0-3)
Patrick Mahomes (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Ben Roethlisberger (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Andrew Luck (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Russell Wilson (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Drew Brees (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Aaron Rodgers (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Kurt Warner (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Rich Gannon (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Donovan McNabb (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Steve McNair (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Say what you want about Manning...yes, he did get some of Brady's worst offensive supporting casts and all wins were at home, but he won three times. Three. That's impressive. No other all-time great/very good QB carrying his squad from the last 20 years has beaten Brady in the postseason, and many of them have also had all of the advantages going into the game. Manning's career has a lot of negatives; as Patriots fans, we certainly remember those and emphasize them...but he is absolutely an all-time great, despite everything.
A bunch of 1 & done but 3 came in his first 3 years. Those teams were good but not legit contenders. Not until 4-5 years later did they become real contenders imo. Plus they had to go through some good teams - Brady & Bill.I don't understand when people point to Manning's playoff failures but ignore the other four. Yes, Manning lost and under-performed as the favorite more than them, but the records are almost the same
I think TB12’s most underrated ability is his toughness. Listen to the Giants Dline talk after the 2007 Super Bowl. They thought they had knocked him out like 5 times, and he would just jump right back up, smack them on the butt, and say nice rush baby, then go swear at his oline. Justin Tuck said I hate QBs bunch of Nancy pretty boys that make too much money, but one dude I respect is Tom Brady, toughest QB I have faced. i can not imagine anyone taking a bigger beating then the 2015 Denver Broncos laid on Brady, that was like watching the football version of passion of the Christ. I forgot which one of our early dynasty oline said it but paraphrasing it was don’t call tom a pretty boy he will smash you in the mouth. Point being I think Brady is plenty tough enough to play in any era.Not bashing anyone, but I do wonder how Tom Brady would perform in the 70's and 80's when Roughing the passer calls were never made and when QB's really had to worry all the time about getting knocked out for the season on every play.
TB12 is the most accomplished in the era that he played, but I think in the 70's or 80's he would get squared like a mosquito.
So we have
Average Offensive Ranking
Average Defensive Ranking
I’ll point out that the rankings are DVOA. I prefer it over PPG or YPG and since they have all the data for seasons those four played in, I decided to use it.Thanks - great work here.
As suspected, Rodgers has a sky high passer rating and a much more human PPG split. Sacks aren't taken into account, and we all know Rodgers has been working to manufacture that passer rating on every pass he throws. I think Wilson is guity of some of this too. In fact, I've been able to fix numerous problems with the rankings for players being overranked and underranked, but Rodgers and Wilson are probably the biggest issues at the moment. I think it's a huge stretch that Rodgers is the 10th best QB all-time...he shouldn't be ahead of Starr or within range of Young, Staubach, etc. And I think it's also a huge stretch that Wilson is the 20th best QB all-time, when he's maybe the 5th or 6th best QB since 2000. I'm talking 1920-2020 rankings there. The rankings look worse when it's 1967-2020...with these two at around #5 and #10.
I’ll point out that the rankings are DVOA. I prefer it over PPG or YPG and since they have all the data for seasons those four played in, I decided to use it.
DVOA seems to be higher on some of the Saints defenses and lower on some of the Patriots compared to PPG. Same goes for offense with those two.
That would be interesting. I saw the other day that they finished 1983 and are working on getting the info for 1982. Here is an article where someone estimated DVOA back to 1950. It’s probably off on some spots compared to the real thing but still may be useful.It's possible for me to use DVOA for the seasons where it exists and then other stats where it doesn't, just as long as I can convert them into consistent numbers to compare against each other.
Great stuff. Luckman and Baugh are very interesting. I’m glad this thread has made me learn more about them and research them more. I have the below in my notes at the moment, just as a referenceAll of the data has been processed; I only have some more military service years to go through.
Luckman and Baugh in virtual dead heat, but as soon as the career setting is pushed up at all, Baugh goes ahead...so unless you are going with pure efficiency, Baugh has the advantage due to throwing more passes over more years.
I've been saying for almost a month - since I first started with the Hall of Fame monitor - that Danowski should be in the Hall of Fame and Thompson also has a pretty strong case.
After Isbell, this list gets really interesting; I had no idea how these guys would stack up after #7.
#8 Glenn Presnell was the Lions closest thing to a quarterback with their heavy run game in the 30s; he was the guy with the most passing responsibility during the Dutch Clark years...better on the accolades and championships, but his era rating and peak score are decent too.
#9 Ace Parker is a Hall of Famer....very promising career cut short by WWII service.
#10 Harry Newman is another guy whose career was cut short. He was an absolute stud in 1933, one of the best QBs the league had seen to date. Lost a heartbreaker in the title game. The next year, he was knocked out with a spinal injury and Danowski replaced him and won the job permanently. Newman tried to start his own football team, and it didn't go well.
#11 Paul Christman is a bit supririsng to me; I had seen him as a very limited QB who got lucky to be along for the ride for the 1947 (champ) and 1948 (runner up) Cardinals. But his era and peak scores show more of an average QB, so overall, a very solid player.
#12 Frank Filchock is the guy I posted about before...suspended for a few years for allegedly taking a bribe to throw the 1946 championship game. Also put together a solid career a backup/role player to Baugh in Washington.
#13/#14. Irv Comp and Bernie Masterson are your modern "system quarterbacks" in the mold of Joe Flacco. Not very good but can be steady when needed. Comp won a championship with the Packers while Masterson was a part of numerous title contenders during the 30s.
#27. Dutch Clark falls below the 0 line...meaning he's not a quarterback, after all. The 0 line is supposed to show that you either add negative value as a quarterback, or, in the context of the older times, you're not actually a real passing quarterback.
Might post some other stuff tomorrow...the 1920-49 totals are making me think about whether or not I'm overvaluing the 1920s guys. I wouldn't say it's extreme, but it might require some minor changes in calculating the 1920s scores...not suprising it would need to be recalibrated, since it's a different system using the only available passing performance measure: TD passes. I think I might just try to bring those numbers closer to the historical average 50% mark to hedge my bets. Dunn and Herber are virtually deadlocked; I don't know if that's right. I think Dunn did dominate his era like Herber, but with Dunn there's some degree of speculation. I think that should put some distance between Herber and Dunn.
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