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All-Time QB Rankings / QB Hall of Fame Monitor

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Sep 12th

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Bleedthrough

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
I think Manning is a top 10 all-time QB, and in the 5-8 range; part of the reason is that the system is impartial if nothing else, and I don't ever recall seeing Manning outside the top 10, even with very aggressive parameters. I've made some pretty big adjustments to account for his shortcomings. He's 14-13 in the postseason, and if you weigh that into his overall win pct., it hurts his overall winning % as much as any player ever. It's hard to see this because you're not going to see him drop to #15 overall; if he drops that low, the rankings are broken. Manning's postseason failures punish him against the very best of the best like Montana, Staubach, Starr, etc. They don't make a difference against 98% of the QBs - and that's probably the way it should be. And even if I removed his last Super Bowl win (Denver) altogether, it really wouldn't make a huge difference...he would still be in that 5-8 range...maybe just a little closer to 8.

If you remove postseason and championships altogether, Manning is battling for the #1 position. When you had them in, he's battling for top 5. That's a big deal...I think there's some overcorrection beyond that. Just my .02.
My thoughts as well. I've tried discrediting him many times, but I can't put him out of the top 10. He checks almost every box other than the postseason results of guys like Brady, Montana, Starr, and Staubach. So I understand punishing him for that but I still don't see how he can be out of any top 10. The guys you'd replace him with (Favre, Marino, Brees, Rodgers, etc) all have more flaws.
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

Team Bill's Worst Nightmare
PatsFans.com Supporter
My thoughts as well. I've tried discrediting him many times, but I can't put him out of the top 10. He checks almost every box other than the postseason results of guys like Brady, Montana, Starr, and Staubach. So I understand punishing him for that but I still don't see how he can be out of any top 10. The guys you'd replace him with (Favre, Marino, Brees, Rodgers, etc) all have more flaws.

That last part is so correct and so critical...can’t overemphasize it enough. The guys who would replace Manning have the same problems as him, plus some. Which guys should move ahead of him? 8-10 postseason Marino? One-ring guys like Brees/Farve/Rodgers?

I understand why some want to barf seeing Manning over Young, Staubach, etc...the championship count there doesn’t quite seem fair in the end. But those guys are right up there jockeying with him. When one guy has 37 points and the other 36 points, it means they’re essentially even and it comes down to preference. The rankings are supposed to establish consistent tiers across eras using broad strokes. I can consider just posting them without the rank/total points and just putting them into tiers based on a point total margin. Because having a guy at 21.32 points over a guy at 21.09 points seems to be driving at something bigger than intended...and I think our minds are all susceptible to that overreaction on that.

Or just remove recent players because they seem to dominate the discussion...when frankly it’s hard to say right now what we’ll think about them years from now.
 

Bleedthrough

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
That last part is so correct and so critical...can’t overemphasize it enough. The guys who would replace Manning have the same problems as him, plus some. Which guys should move ahead of him? 8-10 postseason Marino? One-ring guys like Brees/Farve/Rodgers?

I understand why some want to barf seeing Manning over Young, Staubach, etc...the championship count there doesn’t quite seem fair in the end. But those guys are right up there jockeying with him. When one guy has 37 points and the other 36 points, it means they’re essentially even and it comes down to preference. The rankings are supposed to establish consistent tiers across eras using broad strokes. I can consider just posting them without the rank/total points and just putting them into tiers based on a point total margin. Because having a guy at 21.32 points over a guy at 21.09 points seems to be driving at something bigger than intended...and I think our minds are all susceptible to that overreaction on that.

Or just remove recent players because they seem to dominate the discussion...when frankly it’s hard to say right now what we’ll think about them years from now.
I don't understand when people point to Manning's playoff failures but ignore the other four. Yes, Manning lost and under-performed as the favorite more than them, but the records are almost the same

Manning: 14-13
Favre: 13-11
Rodgers: 11-9
Brees: 9-9
Marino: 8-10
 

sean10mm

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Peyton Manning was A historically great player, but should have been THE historically great player of the modern era. Reasonable scoring systems not ranking him #1 overall IS his failure.

With his pedigree, football IQ, durability, general talent, supporting casts and so on he should have been the undisputed GOAT... but he didn't quite do it. He was set up to succeed as an NFL QB at basically every step of his life. He had a Hall of Fame head coach and GM for most of his career, rules were rewritten to accommodate him personally, he got to play in a dome, he was almost always surrounded by great offensive weapons. Peyton Manning wanted for virtually nothing, ever and nobody ever unfairly held him back in life.

There's probably a good argument in there somewhere about how being set up so completely to succeed ultimately set up his (relative) failure, but that's more in the realm of psychology than statistics.
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

Team Bill's Worst Nightmare
PatsFans.com Supporter
Peyton Manning was A historically great player, but should have been THE historically great player of the modern era. Reasonable scoring systems not ranking him #1 overall IS his failure.

With his pedigree, football IQ, durability, general talent, supporting casts and so on he should have been the undisputed GOAT... but he didn't quite do it. He was set up to succeed as an NFL QB at basically every step of his life. He had a Hall of Fame head coach and GM for most of his career, rules were rewritten to accommodate him personally, he got to play in a dome, he was almost always surrounded by great offensive weapons. Peyton Manning wanted for virtually nothing, ever and nobody ever unfairly held him back in life.

There's probably a good argument in there somewhere about how being set up so completely to succeed ultimately set up his (relative) failure, but that's more in the realm of psychology than statistics.

There's a lot of really tough breaks that quarterbacks have gotten thoughout history...which is why it's really hard to fathom Manning's playoff failures. I don't recall a single season - not one - where he didn't have two very good/elite wide receivers as a minimum. I don't recall any times when Harrison, Wayne, Clark, Thomas, Welker, Decker, or really anyone actually missed a postseason game at any point, or where a wide receiver dropped a wide open pass, or any bad break he got.

Sammy Baugh, like Manning, won two championships and it's surprising because he could have won more. But in the 1943 Championship, he came in with an injury and aggravated it early on; he was barely able to throw and the Bears scored 41 points. Two years later, he returned and lost to the Rams on a pretty bizarre, controversial call where he threw the ball out of the endzone, it hit the goapost, and it was ruled a safety (they lost 15-14.) The rule was correct, apparently, but teams weren't even aware of it and they changed it the next year.

Roger Staubach also won two championships, and it seems like he coud have won more, but he, too, had some more difficult things to deal with. He started his career at age 27. The Cowboys made it to SB5 and Landry named Craig Morton the starter, who promptly went 12/26 with 3 picks, and they lost 16-13. The next year Staubach went 10-0 with a league leading passer rating. He was 29 years old when he became a starter. Then in his two Super Bowl losses, he faced the Steel Curtain defense, plus there was that infamous Jackie Smith touchdown drop in SB11.

Steve Young was 31 years old when he finally got a full season as a starter, despite being the top pick in the supplemental draft in 1984. Bad, bad teams (Bucs), crappy leagues (USFL) and an all-time great quarterback (Montana) all led to some extreme circumstances leading to his short career. And when he finally took over, the absolutely stacked, dynasty Cowboys were waiting.

So these are 3 guys very often in the mix with Manning on the all-time rankings, and with them, there's a whole bunch of "what could have been" and it's pretty legitimate. With Manning, it's the opposite; looking at how one can get every imaginable break, including maybe the biggest "freebie" championship in the Super Bowl era.
 
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Sam Bam Cunningham

Practice Squad Player
Not bashing anyone, but I do wonder how Tom Brady would perform in the 70's and 80's when Roughing the passer calls were never made and when QB's really had to worry all the time about getting knocked out for the season on every play.

TB12 is the most accomplished in the era that he played, but I think in the 70's or 80's he would get squared like a mosquito.
 

sean10mm

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Not bashing anyone, but I do wonder how Tom Brady would perform in the 70's and 80's when Roughing the passer calls were never made and when QB's really had to worry all the time about getting knocked out for the season on every play.

TB12 is the most accomplished in the era that he played, but I think in the 70's or 80's he would get squared like a mosquito.
Even with modern rules in play, Brady has taken plenty of kills shots over 20+ years, and by guys vastly bigger, stronger and faster than most of the players in the 70s when the rules were super slanted towards defense. And the "tough guy" quarterbacks of the 70s weren't physical titans, Staubach was like 200 lbs.

I'm sure Brady isn't playing into his 40s in the 1970s but he'd likely have a long career by the standards of the era. Conversely, any of the ancient tough guys getting kneecapped like Brady was would have been on their asses too.

e: There's really no answering these era vs era hypotheticals, but my main point is that they go both ways. Brady would be playing against guys who smoked on the sidelines and thought a 260 lb defensive tackle was a monster.
 
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Ice_Ice_Brady

Team Bill's Worst Nightmare
PatsFans.com Supporter
Not bashing anyone, but I do wonder how Tom Brady would perform in the 70's and 80's when Roughing the passer calls were never made and when QB's really had to worry all the time about getting knocked out for the season on every play.

TB12 is the most accomplished in the era that he played, but I think in the 70's or 80's he would get squared like a mosquito.

The thing is, you can just keep going back, which is why this is all so interesting.

In the 1970s, QBs would get crushed by defenses, but at least they wouldn't smash into the goal post at the front of the end zone :rofl:

Those guys in the 50s could take a beating, but the guys in the 1930s apparently had no hash marks so often had 2 downs and quick punting was a normal thing too.

So there's really no "normal" here. It's a cycle...the NFL decides in the 1920s that the forward pass can be allowed; then to increase the offense, 10 years later, they allow it from anywhere behind the line of scrimmage (not just five yards); then they want to increase offense in 1933 and put in hash marks so teams don't waste plays getting to the center of the field; the rules continually dissolve to increase the passing game effectiveness because that's what the fans want. Offense puts fans in the seats and the long pass is the most exciting play. In the 1970s, they start enforcing the roughing the passer calls (think Ken Stabler) and in the ensuing four decades, every few years there's more limitations on what defensive backs can do against wide receivers.

But to address your first point, I think Tom Brady would have done fine in any era, as would most of the quick-release pocket quarterbacks who are drop back and release within two seconds. Would he have played 20 years and been this dominant? Of course not...the rules and physical beating would cut down on it. But would he have been one of the best of his era? I personally believe so. Things do change, but if you go watch film of Norm Van Brocklin or Johnny Unitas in the 1950s, it's the same stuff...precision passes into tight windows with an oncoming pass rush.
 

sean10mm

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
I mean yeah, eventually you rewind far enough and the forward pass barely maters, but at that point Brady's circa 2004 athletic ability looks like a 2011 Cam Newton highlight video does to us. :p
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

Team Bill's Worst Nightmare
PatsFans.com Supporter
The other side of coin with Manning is this list of QBs who faced Brady in the postseason...I'm only listing the players that were (a) MVPs and, (b) probable Hall of Famers. I'm leaving off the sub-par/average QBs whose teams were already stacked, hence they were in the game...those guys were the team's kryptonite but also every team's kryptonite.

Peyton Manning (Won 3 times, 3-2)

Philip Rivers (Did not beat Brady, 0-3)
Patrick Mahomes (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Ben Roethlisberger (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Andrew Luck (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Russell Wilson (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Drew Brees (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Aaron Rodgers (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Kurt Warner (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Rich Gannon (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Donovan McNabb (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Steve McNair (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)

Say what you want about Manning...yes, he did get some of Brady's worst offensive supporting casts and all wins were at home, but he won three times. Three. That's impressive. No other all-time great/very good QB carrying his squad from the last 20 years has beaten Brady in the postseason, and many of them have also had all of the advantages going into the game. Manning's career has a lot of negatives; as Patriots fans, we certainly remember those and emphasize them...but he is absolutely an all-time great, despite everything.
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

Team Bill's Worst Nightmare
PatsFans.com Supporter
I know what I'll be doing when I have free time.

I read the first one last night, 1933, and I feel like that fifteen minutes of reading gave me more insight about the historical context than two weeks of compliling QB stats and reading blurbs/Wikipedia articles about the older eras. It's just a spectacular resource...pictures (from the games themselves!), quotes, snippets, insights. I feel like, for the first time, I really know what's happening behind these stat lines, scoring summaries, etc. The person who wrote these must have an astounding amount of NFL knowledge to not just provide each one but to summarize them so perfectly.

I can't even find the author of this site or any of the articles. Where on earth did this guy get all of these in-game pictures???? I don't think they even exist anywhere else on the internet. Pretty sure he photo copied them from books.
 
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jmt57

Moderator
Staff member
I don't understand when people point to playoff failures
Agree, because at that point you are only playing against the best of the best.
(Insert Will Smith Men In Black GIF here.)​

Everything above .500 in the playoffs is a job well done, considering the level of competition.
 

Tony2046

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
The other side of coin with Manning is this list of QBs who faced Brady in the postseason...I'm only listing the players that were (a) MVPs and, (b) probable Hall of Famers. I'm leaving off the sub-par/average QBs whose teams were already stacked, hence they were in the game...those guys were the team's kryptonite but also every team's kryptonite.

Peyton Manning (Won 3 times, 3-2)

Philip Rivers (Did not beat Brady, 0-3)
Patrick Mahomes (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Ben Roethlisberger (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Andrew Luck (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Russell Wilson (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Drew Brees (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Aaron Rodgers (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Kurt Warner (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Rich Gannon (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Donovan McNabb (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Steve McNair (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)

Say what you want about Manning...yes, he did get some of Brady's worst offensive supporting casts and all wins were at home, but he won three times. Three. That's impressive. No other all-time great/very good QB carrying his squad from the last 20 years has beaten Brady in the postseason, and many of them have also had all of the advantages going into the game. Manning's career has a lot of negatives; as Patriots fans, we certainly remember those and emphasize them...but he is absolutely an all-time great, despite everything.

Good point. Probably one of the best arguments for PM I've seen.
 

Tony2046

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
I read the first one last night, 1933, and I feel like that fifteen minutes of reading gave me more insight about the historical context than two weeks of compliling QB stats and reading blurbs/Wikipedia articles about the older eras. It's just a spectacular resource...pictures (from the games themselves!), quotes, snippets, insights. I feel like, for the first time, I really know what's happening behind these stat lines, scoring summaries, etc. The person who wrote these must have an astounding amount of NFL knowledge to not just provide each one but to summarize them so perfectly.

I can't even find the author of this site or any of the articles. Where on earth did this guy get all of these in-game pictures???? I don't think they even exist anywhere else on the internet. Pretty sure he photo copied them from books.

There was a guest on one of the 4th and 2 podcasts who wrote two books that apparently compiled a great deal of info of NFL history. I'll try to find it tomorrow. Can't remember his name or the name of his books but they sounded like great reads.

If I recall correctly he's putting together some kind of interactive display at the Patriots hof.

I'm getting old. The mind is slipping. Starting to know how Dory feels.
 

Bleedthrough

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
I read the first one last night, 1933, and I feel like that fifteen minutes of reading gave me more insight about the historical context than two weeks of compliling QB stats and reading blurbs/Wikipedia articles about the older eras. It's just a spectacular resource...pictures (from the games themselves!), quotes, snippets, insights. I feel like, for the first time, I really know what's happening behind these stat lines, scoring summaries, etc. The person who wrote these must have an astounding amount of NFL knowledge to not just provide each one but to summarize them so perfectly.

I can't even find the author of this site or any of the articles. Where on earth did this guy get all of these in-game pictures???? I don't think they even exist anywhere else on the internet. Pretty sure he photo copied them from books.
I read 1933 and 1934. These are amazing and I can't wait to read more.
 

Tony2046

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
There was a guest on one of the 4th and 2 podcasts who wrote two books that apparently compiled a great deal of info of NFL history. I'll try to find it tomorrow. Can't remember his name or the name of his books but they sounded like great reads.

If I recall correctly he's putting together some kind of interactive display at the Patriots hof.

I'm getting old. The mind is slipping. Starting to know how Dory feels.

Sorry it's only Patriots history.

Bob Hyldbrug

Here's his latest book.

 

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