Content Post All-Time QB Rankings / QB Hall of Fame Monitor

[Tony2046]

Sorry it's only Patriots history.

Bob Hyldbrug

Here's his latest book.

Amazon product ASIN 099699212X

@jmt57 , is this you? You've put up a ton of Patriots history over the years.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

The other side of coin with Manning is this list of QBs who faced Brady in the postseason...I'm only listing the players that were (a) MVPs and, (b) probable Hall of Famers. I'm leaving off the sub-par/average QBs whose teams were already stacked, hence they were in the game...those guys were the team's kryptonite but also every team's kryptonite.

Peyton Manning (Won 3 times, 3-2)

Philip Rivers (Did not beat Brady, 0-3)
Patrick Mahomes (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Ben Roethlisberger (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Andrew Luck (Did not beat Brady, 0-2)
Russell Wilson (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Drew Brees (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Aaron Rodgers (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Kurt Warner (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Rich Gannon (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Donovan McNabb (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)
Steve McNair (Did not beat Brady, 0-1)

Say what you want about Manning...yes, he did get some of Brady's worst offensive supporting casts and all wins were at home, but he won three times. Three. That's impressive. No other all-time great/very good QB carrying his squad from the last 20 years has beaten Brady in the postseason, and many of them have also had all of the advantages going into the game. Manning's career has a lot of negatives; as Patriots fans, we certainly remember those and emphasize them...but he is absolutely an all-time great, despite everything.

I've always been a Manning supporter in these arguments. He's been #2 for a while now. And Young for that matter, top 5.

One thing I always bring up when looking at Manning, Manning V Brady, what is considered successful for PM is coaching/philosophy. Brady having Bill was such a luxury, such an ace it trumped everything else the opposing QB had most of the time.

Like what was generally asked, jow they approached and attacked a game was completely different. Manning was asked and basically demanded it be put on him. Now every QB has that attitude but Manning is Manning - groomed from birth, #1 overall ... So he needed a tough/bad cop on the other side of the line. Someone to push back a little. Show him you can win different ways. Manning was trying to score 30 points every pass.

Brady came in under totally different circumstances so he had to adapt, adjust and compromise to an extent. Right from the jump he saw you could win taking different paths to the SB. Forget about year to year. Brady was accustomed to things changing week to week. Whereas it was all Manning all the time in Indy.

Now again I'm sure Manning had a lot to do with this. But in an alt universe I wonder what would have happened if he had a more confrontational - established coach. Choose your fighter there - Bill is an easy one. Cower, Gruden, Reid? Maybe those are bad choices but you get the point. He was the HC, OC & QB at times imo.

Good work & job on the thread.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I don't understand when people point to Manning's playoff failures but ignore the other four. Yes, Manning lost and under-performed as the favorite more than them, but the records are almost the same

Manning: 14-13
Favre: 13-11
Rodgers: 11-9
Brees: 9-9
Marino: 8-10

A bunch of 1 & done but 3 came in his first 3 years. Those teams were good but not legit contenders. Not until 4-5 years later did they become real contenders imo. Plus they had to go through some good teams - Brady & Bill.

There's definitely some "what it's" or "should have been" but I think his accomplishments speak for themselves in that regard. And when you look atbhow they QB position is supposed to be played it's tough not wanting him vs 99.9% of what's out there if you had the choice. At least imo.

 

[pazrul72]

Not bashing anyone, but I do wonder how Tom Brady would perform in the 70's and 80's when Roughing the passer calls were never made and when QB's really had to worry all the time about getting knocked out for the season on every play.

TB12 is the most accomplished in the era that he played, but I think in the 70's or 80's he would get squared like a mosquito.

I think TB12’s most underrated ability is his toughness. Listen to the Giants Dline talk after the 2007 Super Bowl. They thought they had knocked him out like 5 times, and he would just jump right back up, smack them on the butt, and say nice rush baby, then go swear at his oline. Justin Tuck said I hate QBs bunch of Nancy pretty boys that make too much money, but one dude I respect is Tom Brady, toughest QB I have faced. i can not imagine anyone taking a bigger beating then the 2015 Denver Broncos laid on Brady, that was like watching the football version of passion of the Christ. I forgot which one of our early dynasty oline said it but paraphrasing it was don’t call tom a pretty boy he will smash you in the mouth. Point being I think Brady is plenty tough enough to play in any era.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

My biggest problem with Manning was the absurd narrative in the 2000s that he was carrying some JV team, laughingstock franchise. Those Colts teams had a few down years on defense (run defense, in particular), but overall the defense wasn't bad, considering how much money was being pumped into the offense. Freeney is a borderline Hall of Famer, Mathis was a damn good player; Sanders, for that short time when he was healthy, was one of the best defenders in the league; their secondary was often underrated and solid. On offense, though, I don't think there's a team in the 2000s offering a better supporting cast for a QB. Harrison and Wayne, who weren't just great but always healthy; Clark, who Sean Payton in SB44 claimed was their best offensive player; James and Faulk, two Hall of Fame running backs. Solid offensive line with Saturday the perrennial all star. Coached by a guy who had just led TB to a handful of playoff runs with bad quarterbacks and GM'd by a guy who had taken two previous franchises to the Super Bowl.

 

[lancerman]

Manning is third behind Brady and Montana. 5 MVP’s and 4 SB appearances is significant. But he basically got carried to both rings and anyone who watched him remembers his unclutch deer in the headlights look in big games.

 

[Zarozzor]

Here's the offensive rankings for Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers

Manning
1998: 14
1999: 5
2000: 2
2001: 8
2002: 19
2003: 3
2004: 1
2005: 3
2006: 1
2007: 2
2008: 5
2009: 6
2010: 6
2011: N/A
2012: 2
2013: 1
2014: 3
2015: 24

Brady
2001: 11
2002: 9
2003: 14
2004: 3
2005: 7
2006: 4
2007: 1
2008: N/A
2009: 1
2010: 1
2011: 3
2012: 1
2013: 4
2014: 6
2015: 5
2016: 2
2017: 1
2018: 5
2019: 11
2020: 3

Brees
2002: 16
2003: 12
2004: 5
2005: 6
2006: 8
2007: 11
2008: 4
2009: 2
2010: 11
2011: 2
2012: 9
2013: 5
2014: 8
2015: 8
2016: 6
2017: 2
2018: 4
2019: 4
2020: 7

Rodgers
2008: 11
2009: 5
2010: 7
2011: 1
2012: 3
2013: 10
2014: 1
2015: 11
2016: 4
2017: N/A
2018: 7
2019: 8
2020: 1

 

[Zarozzor]

And here’s the defensive rankings for them

Manning
1998: 28
1999: 27
2000: 22
2001: 30
2002: 17
2003: 12
2004: 20
2005: 5
2006: 26
2007: 2
2008: 10
2009: 16
2010: 26
2011: N/A
2012: 6
2013: 15
2014: 4
2015: 1

Brady
2001: 13
2002: 15
2003: 2
2004: 6
2005: 28
2006: 7
2007: 10
2008: N/A
2009: 14
2010: 23
2011: 30
2012: 17
2013: 20
2014: 12
2015: 11
2016: 16
2017: 31
2018: 19
2019: 1
2020: 5

Brees
2002: 23
2003: 30
2004: 12
2005: 16
2006: 16
2007: 27
2008: 19
2009: 12
2010: 8
2011: 24
2012: 27
2013: 7
2014: 27
2015: 32
2016: 28
2017: 6
2018: 8
2019: 8
2020: 2

Rodgers
2008: 13
2009: 2
2010: 2
2011: 26
2012: 8
2013: 31
2014: 16
2015: 9
2016: 21
2017: N/A
2018: 29
2019: 15
2020: 17

 

[Zarozzor]

So we have

Average Offensive Ranking
Brady: 4.8
Rodgers: 5.8
Manning: 6.2
Brees: 6.8

Average Defensive Ranking
Brady: 14.7
Manning: 15.7
Rodgers: 15.8
Brees: 17.5

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

So we have

Average Offensive Ranking
Brady: 4.8
Rodgers: 5.8
Manning: 6.2
Brees: 6.8

Average Defensive Ranking
Brady: 14.7
Manning: 15.7
Rodgers: 15.8
Brees: 17.5

Thanks - great work here.

As suspected, Rodgers has a sky high passer rating and a much more human PPG split. Sacks aren't taken into account, and we all know Rodgers has been working to manufacture that passer rating on every pass he throws. I think Wilson is guity of some of this too. In fact, I've been able to fix numerous problems with the rankings for players being overranked and underranked, but Rodgers and Wilson are probably the biggest issues at the moment. I think it's a huge stretch that Rodgers is the 10th best QB all-time...he shouldn't be ahead of Starr or within range of Young, Staubach, etc. And I think it's also a huge stretch that Wilson is the 20th best QB all-time, when he's maybe the 5th or 6th best QB since 2000. I'm talking 1920-2020 rankings there. The rankings look worse when it's 1967-2020...with these two at around #5 and #10.

 

[Zarozzor]

Thanks - great work here.

As suspected, Rodgers has a sky high passer rating and a much more human PPG split. Sacks aren't taken into account, and we all know Rodgers has been working to manufacture that passer rating on every pass he throws. I think Wilson is guity of some of this too. In fact, I've been able to fix numerous problems with the rankings for players being overranked and underranked, but Rodgers and Wilson are probably the biggest issues at the moment. I think it's a huge stretch that Rodgers is the 10th best QB all-time...he shouldn't be ahead of Starr or within range of Young, Staubach, etc. And I think it's also a huge stretch that Wilson is the 20th best QB all-time, when he's maybe the 5th or 6th best QB since 2000. I'm talking 1920-2020 rankings there. The rankings look worse when it's 1967-2020...with these two at around #5 and #10.

I’ll point out that the rankings are DVOA. I prefer it over PPG or YPG and since they have all the data for seasons those four played in, I decided to use it.

DVOA seems to be higher on some of the Saints defenses and lower on some of the Patriots compared to PPG. Same goes for offense with those two.

Just a quick example

PPG
Brady: 3 First Place Offense
Rodgers: 3 First Place Offense
Manning: 2 First Place Offense
Brees: 2 First Place Offense

DVOA
Brady: 5 First Place Offense
Rodgers: 3 First Place Offense
Manning: 3 First Place Offense
Brees: 0 First Place Offense

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I’ll point out that the rankings are DVOA. I prefer it over PPG or YPG and since they have all the data for seasons those four played in, I decided to use it.

DVOA seems to be higher on some of the Saints defenses and lower on some of the Patriots compared to PPG. Same goes for offense with those two.

It's possible for me to use DVOA for the seasons where it exists and then other stats where it doesn't, just as long as I can convert them into consistent numbers to compare against each other.

 

[Zarozzor]

It's possible for me to use DVOA for the seasons where it exists and then other stats where it doesn't, just as long as I can convert them into consistent numbers to compare against each other.

That would be interesting. I saw the other day that they finished 1983 and are working on getting the info for 1982. Here is an article where someone estimated DVOA back to 1950. It’s probably off on some spots compared to the real thing but still may be useful.

https://www.footballperspective.com/estimated-dvoa-ratings-from-1950-to-2013/

 

[jmt57]

@jmt57 , is this you? You've put up a ton of Patriots history over the years.

No, he's someone different - with a whole lot more time on his hands than me!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

1932-49

One of the major QB components missing is the middle class. During this era, there's 8 teams. Of those, maybe 4 have a real quarterback, and those 4 teams win almost every championship...up until the mid-40s/early-50s when teams start looking for real quarterbacks who can just throw the ball and stop looking for quarterbacks who will platoon with others, play defense, etc.

The top QBs in this era are very obvious, and while I'm still working on the data, I expect it gel with what I had before.

Baugh/Luckman / A+
Herber / A
Waterfield, Danowski / A-
Isbell / B+ (that's due to longevity; he had arguably the most dominant 5-year stretch ever)
Thompson / B

That list accounts for almost every champion quarterback over the 18 year period from 1932-49. Those 6 quarterbacks won 14 championships during this period...the only ones they didn't win were two Bears titles in 32 & 33 (QB committee, but they did have a great overall passing game), the Lions in 1935 (Dutch Clark more of a halfback carrying their average QBs) and two journeyman type QBs in 44 and 47 (Comp and Christman); those guys were very much "quarterbacks" but weren't elite.

So, all in all, you have an elite class of quarterbacks, then you have a few average guys who played for a few years, a couple stumbling upon a championship, and then a whole bunch of backups, by-committee approaches, and busts. Quarterbacks reigned supreme during this era, though. While Baugh really set the new standard in the 1937 season, Herber and Danowski were already showing the value of a pure passer.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

1932-1949

How much were quarterbacks carried by their teams/systems during this era?

This is where I think the perception is off, as usual, about how much responsibility is on the coaching and how much is on the QB. I've given some examples of guys who were carried by a great supporting cast, and this happens in any era. But in terms of the overall trend...similar to today...

Arnie Herber - He was already a great QB before the Packers signed Don Hutson in 1935; you might think of it like Montana and Rice or Brady and Moss. You take a guy whose already outstanding and give him the best weapon in the league. Here's the incredible thing about Herber: he retired in 1940 after the Packers were leaning towards Isbell as their primary QB. Herber stayed retired for three years before the Giants convinced him to come out of retirement in 1944, at age 44. Herber led the Giants back to the Championship Game, falling to his former team. (This in itself is an epic side story, like Favre going to the Vikings.)

Sammy Baugh - The Redskins did make the 1936 NFL Championship game, their last season in Boston, before drafting Baugh in 1937. But a couple of years later, their cheap owner refused to give Cliff Battles a raise, and so the best running back in the game walked away from the NFL at age 28. Did it effect the Redskins much? Not really. They still had the best offense almost every year. Sure, it helps to have a great runner, but with Baugh, just like today, you see so much of the offense dependent on the passing game. The Redskins struggled when Baugh was hurt.

Sid Luckman - Rehashing (but adding to) what I wrote earlier...Halas is credited for creating the monster Bears offense during Luckman's career, but this is just off-base. The Bears were already running their vaunted T-Formation in the years preceeding Luckman. They were also running a committee approach, with a dizzying array of formations and plays, while Masterson, Brumbaugh, and Molesworth would split those snaps. When the Packers, Redskins, and Giants started scoring a lot of points with their great quarterbacks, the Bears were stalling out and couldn't keep up. That's when Luckman arrived in 1937; same supporting cast, same offensive philosophy, but the evolved into a higher volume passing team, culiminating in record setting seasons.

Bob Waterfield - This is another great example of the quarterback supremacy over all else. The Cleveland Rams were not a good team. They began in 1937, and from 37-44, they never had a winnning record. They had an MVP quarterback in 1937, Parker Hall, but I'm going to stan for my rankings system now and point out it ranks Hall extremely low, so I believe that MVP was not so legit. It did serve up Hall three more seasons as the starter, though, before they must have realized at the end of 1942 that he did, indeed, suck. They continued to be a mess though 1944, going to a bunch of backups and busts. Then in 1945, Waterfield, a rookie, turned the team around and led them to a 9-1 record and championship win over Baugh. He continued to lead them and never had a losing record; in fact, the team had 15 straight seasons without a losing record with Waterfield and then Van Brocklin.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

When I finish the data stuff for 32-49, I'm going to be working on a tool to convert statistics from any era...so you can put in a player's career or season stats from one year or era and look up what they translate to in another. Curious to see how Sammy Baugh or Sid Luckman's stats would translate into 2020.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

All of the data has been processed; I only have some more military service years to go through.

Luckman and Baugh in virtual dead heat, but as soon as the career setting is pushed up at all, Baugh goes ahead...so unless you are going with pure efficiency, Baugh has the advantage due to throwing more passes over more years.

I've been saying for almost a month - since I first started with the Hall of Fame monitor - that Danowski should be in the Hall of Fame and Thompson also has a pretty strong case.

After Isbell, this list gets really interesting; I had no idea how these guys would stack up after #7.

#8 Glenn Presnell was the Lions closest thing to a quarterback with their heavy run game in the 30s; he was the guy with the most passing responsibility during the Dutch Clark years...better on the accolades and championships, but his era rating and peak score are decent too.

#9 Ace Parker is a Hall of Famer....very promising career cut short by WWII service.

#10 Harry Newman is another guy whose career was cut short. He was an absolute stud in 1933, one of the best QBs the league had seen to date. Lost a heartbreaker in the title game. The next year, he was knocked out with a spinal injury and Danowski replaced him and won the job permanently. Newman tried to start his own football team, and it didn't go well.

#11 Paul Christman is a bit supririsng to me; I had seen him as a very limited QB who got lucky to be along for the ride for the 1947 (champ) and 1948 (runner up) Cardinals. But his era and peak scores show more of an average QB, so overall, a very solid player.

#12 Frank Filchock is the guy I posted about before...suspended for a few years for allegedly taking a bribe to throw the 1946 championship game. Also put together a solid career a backup/role player to Baugh in Washington.

#13/#14. Irv Comp and Bernie Masterson are your modern "system quarterbacks" in the mold of Joe Flacco. Not very good but can be steady when needed. Comp won a championship with the Packers while Masterson was a part of numerous title contenders during the 30s.

#27. Dutch Clark falls below the 0 line...meaning he's not a quarterback, after all. The 0 line is supposed to show that you either add negative value as a quarterback, or, in the context of the older times, you're not actually a real passing quarterback.

Might post some other stuff tomorrow...the 1920-49 totals are making me think about whether or not I'm overvaluing the 1920s guys. I wouldn't say it's extreme, but it might require some minor changes in calculating the 1920s scores...not suprising it would need to be recalibrated, since it's a different system using the only available passing performance measure: TD passes. I think I might just try to bring those numbers closer to the historical average 50% mark to hedge my bets. Dunn and Herber are virtually deadlocked; I don't know if that's right. I think Dunn did dominate his era like Herber, but with Dunn there's some degree of speculation. I think that should put some distance between Herber and Dunn.



#8

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I think this is really relevant when we talk about how the old timers couldn’t do the things the modern players can do. Breaking it down into its most fundamental stuff is difficult, but here’s the simple notion that across any era, all of these guys are kicking a football as far as they can, and the distance is being measured. Is it so hard to believe Baugh would also be able to throw a fastball between defenders better than anyone else playing today? Diets, weights, supplements, etc. help with many things but not really with those core strengths.

NFL Yards per Punt Single-Season Leaders (since 1939) | Pro-Football-Reference.com

1. Ryan Stonehouse (53.1/2022), 1. Ryan Stonehouse (53.1/2023), 3. Bryan Anger (51.4/2023), 3. Sammy Baugh (51.4/1940), 5. Shane Lechler (51.1/2009),

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[Zarozzor]

All of the data has been processed; I only have some more military service years to go through.

Luckman and Baugh in virtual dead heat, but as soon as the career setting is pushed up at all, Baugh goes ahead...so unless you are going with pure efficiency, Baugh has the advantage due to throwing more passes over more years.

I've been saying for almost a month - since I first started with the Hall of Fame monitor - that Danowski should be in the Hall of Fame and Thompson also has a pretty strong case.

After Isbell, this list gets really interesting; I had no idea how these guys would stack up after #7.

#8 Glenn Presnell was the Lions closest thing to a quarterback with their heavy run game in the 30s; he was the guy with the most passing responsibility during the Dutch Clark years...better on the accolades and championships, but his era rating and peak score are decent too.

#9 Ace Parker is a Hall of Famer....very promising career cut short by WWII service.

#10 Harry Newman is another guy whose career was cut short. He was an absolute stud in 1933, one of the best QBs the league had seen to date. Lost a heartbreaker in the title game. The next year, he was knocked out with a spinal injury and Danowski replaced him and won the job permanently. Newman tried to start his own football team, and it didn't go well.

#11 Paul Christman is a bit supririsng to me; I had seen him as a very limited QB who got lucky to be along for the ride for the 1947 (champ) and 1948 (runner up) Cardinals. But his era and peak scores show more of an average QB, so overall, a very solid player.

#12 Frank Filchock is the guy I posted about before...suspended for a few years for allegedly taking a bribe to throw the 1946 championship game. Also put together a solid career a backup/role player to Baugh in Washington.

#13/#14. Irv Comp and Bernie Masterson are your modern "system quarterbacks" in the mold of Joe Flacco. Not very good but can be steady when needed. Comp won a championship with the Packers while Masterson was a part of numerous title contenders during the 30s.

#27. Dutch Clark falls below the 0 line...meaning he's not a quarterback, after all. The 0 line is supposed to show that you either add negative value as a quarterback, or, in the context of the older times, you're not actually a real passing quarterback.

Might post some other stuff tomorrow...the 1920-49 totals are making me think about whether or not I'm overvaluing the 1920s guys. I wouldn't say it's extreme, but it might require some minor changes in calculating the 1920s scores...not suprising it would need to be recalibrated, since it's a different system using the only available passing performance measure: TD passes. I think I might just try to bring those numbers closer to the historical average 50% mark to hedge my bets. Dunn and Herber are virtually deadlocked; I don't know if that's right. I think Dunn did dominate his era like Herber, but with Dunn there's some degree of speculation. I think that should put some distance between Herber and Dunn.


View attachment 31795
#8

Great stuff. Luckman and Baugh are very interesting. I’m glad this thread has made me learn more about them and research them more. I have the below in my notes at the moment, just as a reference


Sammy Baugh (1937-1952)
2x NFL Champion (1937, 1942)
2x MVP (1947, 1948)
3x First-Team All-Pro
2x Second-Team All-Pro
6x Pro Bowl
22x Black Ink
74-46-4 Regular Season Record (.617%)
3-2 Playoff Record
Career: 1,693 for 2,995 (56.5%), 21,886 Yards, 7.3 YPA, 187 TD, 203 INT, 72.2 Passer Rating

Sid Luckman (1939-1950)
4x NFL Champion (1940, 1941, 1943, 1946)
1x MVP (1943)
5x First-Team All-Pro
1x Second-Team All-Pro
3x Pro Bowl
11x Black Ink
55-19-2 Regular Season Record (.743%)
5-1 Playoff Record
Career: 904 for 1,744 (51.8%), 14,686 Yards, 8.4 YPA, 137 TD, 132 INT, 75.0 Passer Rating

As you said, the edge for Baugh may come down to the fact that he attempted 1,251 more passes and has better longevity.