AFC playoff standings

[BobDigital]

A look and discussion of the AFC playoff picture. First the standings and schedule of the teams still in it. If you aren't at least .500 at this point while not mathematically eliminated I think it is fair to consider them out.

AFCE

Patriots - 9-3 - @Dolphins @Steelers Bills Jets
Miami - 6-6 - Patriots @Vikings Jags @Bills

AFCN

Steelers 7-4-1 - @Raiders Patriots @Saints Bengals (split with Ravens 3-1-1 in Div)
Ravens 7-5 - @Chiefs Bucs @ Chargers Browns (2-3 in Div)

AFCS

Texans 9-3 - Colts @ Jets @ Eagles Jags
Colts 6-6 - @Texans Cowboys Giants @Titans (1-0 vs Titans, Div 2-2)
Titans 6-6 - Jags @ Giants Redskins Colts (Div 2-2)

AFCW

Chiefs 10-2 - Ravens Chargers @Seahawks Raiders (Div 4-0)
Chargers 9-3 - Bengals @Chiefs Ravens @Broncos (Div 2-2)
Broncos 6-6 - @49ers Browns @Raiders Chargers

 

[BobDigital]

A few things that stick out to me.

Miami needs to beat the Patriots no question. I think they are a fraud team and the Vikings are better at home than on the road by a good margin. If they lose to us their ceiling is 8-8 and they are out.

The Steelers can't lose a divisional tie breaker to the Ravens even if they finish with the same record. IF they end up losing to the Pats and Saints they put themselves at risk though. The Ravens could potentially go 3-1 and steal the division if they get an upset against KC or LAC

The Texans are 9-3 and don't play a single team with a winning record. While 3 of their games are against decent teams they do have the easiest path to go undefeated most likely.

The Chargers need help to get past KC even if they beat them. It is possible but perhaps not probable. The Seahawks and Ravens both have a lot to play for and both are on a bit of a role.

The Broncos are playing well right now and have 3 weak opponents on their schedule. They could easily win the next 3 games and have a play in on week 17.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Still think the texans drop one more, finish 12-4. None of the games are against great teams but just tough enough, and that team imo is not a 13 win team despite the creampuff schedule. I believe they lost to nyg an awful team.

That puts us in solid shape for the 2 seed even if we drop a game. Will need to win out for the 1 seed imo.

Whoever gets the 3 seed has a huge advantage over the 4 seed as the 4 seed will get kc or sd while the 3 seed gets a 6-7 loss team.

 

[mosslost]

Colts beat Texans.. bank it

 

[fnordcircle]

Colts beat Texans.. bank it

Interested in a wager? Some sort of forum humiliation bet cause I think the Texans are going to win that game.

 

[everlong]

I thought Denver was better than their record and thought they had a shot against SD and flat out thought they would beat the Steelers and run the table after they pulled off SD. Then they lost Chris Harris yesterday. That's gonna leave a mark.

 

[anditsgood]

Interested in a wager? Some sort of forum humiliation bet cause I think the Texans are going to win that game.

signature bet? sounds like fun

 

[Rob0729]

This may be the year you don't want the #1 seed. Looks like whoever the first wild card team is will be better than either of the two lower division winners and will be one of the best teams in the playoffs. Odds are good either KC or the Chargers will be a wild card team heading to the #1 seed's stadium in the division round.

I am not advocating getting the #2 seed and the potential easier road, but I am just stating that the #2 seed might have the easier road than the #1 seed.

 

[fnordcircle]

signature bet? sounds like fun

I was thinking loser has to post a Patriots or Football related thread of the winner's choosing and defend the premise of the thread as best they can.

We'd have to wait months though, so nobody would catch on.

 

[TB_Helmet]

This may be the year you don't want the #1 seed. Looks like whoever the first wild card team is will be better than either of the two lower division winners and will be one of the best teams in the playoffs. Odds are good either KC or the Chargers will be a wild card team heading to the #1 seed's stadium in the division round.

I am not advocating getting the #2 seed and the potential easier road, but I am just stating that the #2 seed might have the easier road than the #1 seed.

Well just to throw out a hypothetical seeding:

1. Pats
2. Chiefs
3. Texans
4. Steelers
5. Chargers
6. Ravens

Round 1: Ravens vs Texans, Chargers vs Steelers

Chargers would play the Pats in Round 2, unless the Ravens won, in which case the Ravens would play the Pats.

I'd actually say Ravens / Texans could go either way, so not sure it's worth hoping for a 1 or 2 seed based on not wanting to play the Chargers. In the end I agree we should probably all root for the 1 seed and home field if we get to the AFCCG, IMO.

I agree that the Chargers would be tough, but if we're gonna win the Super Bowl we are going to have to play some very tough teams regardless, so I say just let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Haterproof]

Well just to throw out a hypothetical seeding:

1. Pats
2. Chiefs
3. Texans
4. Steelers
5. Chargers
6. Ravens

Round 1: Ravens vs Texans, Chargers vs Steelers

Chargers would play the Pats in Round 2, unless the Ravens won, in which case the Ravens would play the Pats.

I'd actually say Ravens / Texans could go either way, so not sure it's worth hoping for a 1 or 2 seed based on not wanting to play the Chargers. In the end I agree we should probably all root for the 1 seed and home field if we get to the AFCCG, IMO.

I agree that the Chargers would be tough, but if we're gonna win the Super Bowl we are going to have to play some very tough teams regardless, so I say just let the chips fall where they may.

I couldn't agree more! I want the Pats lock and load with laser focus in these next 4 games (especially with the next 2 being on the road and the #1 seed still in play)! Put it like this if NE gets home field advantage book the flights to Atlanta! There's still a lot of football to be played! Let the chips fall in place! The chips favor the Pats most of the time anyways!

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

This may be the year you don't want the #1 seed. Looks like whoever the first wild card team is will be better than either of the two lower division winners and will be one of the best teams in the playoffs. Odds are good either KC or the Chargers will be a wild card team heading to the #1 seed's stadium in the division round.

I am not advocating getting the #2 seed and the potential easier road, but I am just stating that the #2 seed might have the easier road than the #1 seed.

I really don't see the Chargers winning that Thursday night game at KC to overtake them in the AFCW. Then again, I gave the Chargers no shot at beating the Steelers yesterday.

 

[Chasing greatness]

I think if anything the pats will play to win all the remaining games. I think the potential hazard of playing at kc far outweighs the potential tougher matchup at number 1. I think we really need to have that bye to get rested and I echo the overall consensus on letting the chips fall as they may

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

To me, it's pretty simple

Go 4-0, we're the #1 seed. (I do believe KC will drop one more)
Go 3-1, we're the #2 seed. (KC is not dropping 2 more)

No need to get more complicated than that. I will guarantee you the Texans are not finishing the season on a 13 game winning streak and Pittsburgh are a 10-5-1 team at BEST at this point.

We have a HUGE SOV tiebreaker over San Diego at the moment that is very unlikely to significantly change (in a potential case of a tie, which I don't see happening regardless).

Our season will be determined in the next two weeks as the last two home games are locks.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

To me, it's pretty simple

Go 4-0, we're the #1 seed. (I do believe KC will drop one more)
Go 3-1, we're the #2 seed. (KC is not dropping 2 more)

No need to get more complicated than that. I will guarantee you the Texans are not finishing the season on a 13 game winning streak and Pittsburgh are a 10-5-1 team at BEST at this point.

We have a HUGE SOV tiebreaker over San Diego at the moment that is very unlikely to significantly change (in a potential case of a tie, which I don't see happening regardless).

Our season will be determined in the next two weeks as the last two home games are locks.

Well Pete you aren't living up to your screenname of Pessimistic so let me be the unfortunate voice of, a small hint, of pessimism. At this point nothing is a lock when you're looking at December football and scrub division teams that have coaches and players trying to keep their current jobs. While it's an overused phrase, to the Bills and the Jets this is their 'superbowl'. To beat the Patriots, at this point in their otherwise irrelevant season, can go a LONG way in cooling off the fan base. This isn't to say I would bet the Jets or Bills even with the line, however, you can bet the whole team will give a gritty max+ effort in the first half (if the Patriots go up 21 at half I'd expect some to start mailing it in a bit). Wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Patriots win one or both by a single score.

With that said, I think you're right about 4-0 giving a very good chance at #1 seed, or go 3-1 and #2 is all but certain (3-1 could get the #1, far stranger things have happened). And you're right that the next two games are the heaviest factor to getting that 4-0/3-1. Hopefully the last 2 days are not what is waiting for Sunday's weather (it's been very humid and very warm in here in [cooler than Miami] Tampa). Hopefully the hex of @Miami isn't in force this year. IMHO Sunday at Miami is the most critical game for getting the bye (losing 2 of last 3 is notably unlikely). And as much as the #1 is optimal, there is nothing more important than getting the week off on WC weekend. Since Denver isn't in the mix, the #2 seed without the @Denver hex looks quite nice.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Uptown]

 

[maust]

Interested in a wager? Some sort of forum humiliation bet cause I think the Texans are going to win that game.

I think your thinking is correct although I'd like to see the number (currently 4.5) drop so I can take $ome 'action' on the thought.

 

[jah]

I don't know if the Colts will beat Houston but I'm calling now that Philly beats them.

 

[maust]

I don't know if the Colts will beat Houston but I'm calling now that Philly beats them.

When it comes to selecting games worth betting on I have a hard enough time 'calling' current week games never mind games that are 3 weeks (and 2 games worth of injuries) away.