According to Jason Cole, teams are alreadying vying for Garoppolo!

[RobertWeathers]

For a while the "Jimmy Johnson chart" was out of whack in weighing the very top of the 1st round, because of the skyrocketing salaries involved. There was huge risk in giving massive $$ to untested players. But with the rookie cap in place it's a good estimate of trade values.

Ok thats what I was thinking about then...the JJ chart.

 

[patchick]

Ok thats what I was thinking about then...the JJ chart.

Yeah, I probably should have been clearer that the standard "draft value chart" that you see everywhere IS the Jimmy Johnson chart. It still does a good job of modeling real-world trades -- though after 25 years of use, that's partially because the trades themselves have been modeled on it!

 

[BobDigital]

The Browns have #12 and #52. Adding those 2 would equal about the 7th pick on most charts.

That would be fine. Personally I am not a big fan of the draft value chart but i use it cause other teams do as well and it is well known so it makes it easier.

Here is my draft value chart. #1 Any top QBs? If no we drop from 3000 to 2000.

#1 2000
#2 1800
#3 1700
#4 1600
#5 1500

At this point all the top teir players should be gone.

#6-10 drop from 1450-1200
#11-20 drop from 1200-1000
#20-26 drop from 1000-800 (your first big talent drop off starters here so that is why the bigger drop.
#27-32 drop from 800-700 (very little drop off)

Why is it like this IMO?

IF you don't have that top QB then even a Von Miller or Joe Thomas will not change your franchise by himself so lets not act like it. The #32 pick is not 3 times less valuable then the #1 pick unless it is a top QB.

Also the picks fall off less quick

2nd round is about 700-500
3rd round is about 500-300
4th round is about 300-100
5th-7th drop from 100-0

2nd rounds are not badly valued until you get late where they are way under valued.
3rd and 4th round picks are highly undervalued.
the 5th or 7th can have value if you draft for specialist and STs stars.

 

[dafoe2016]

I'll go totally rogue on this with a little history supporting my crazy conspiracy theory.

Back in 1988, the NHL Board of Governors gave the LA Kings major (under the table) revenue sharing considerations so they can pay/afford Wayne Gretzky to play in a major US market.

In LA and SF, you have two franchises in top 5 markets that completely suck and with new stadiums.

It would not surprise me at all if Bend Over Bob cut a deal with Goody, Kroenke or York to send Brady to the West Coast for a boatload of whatever.

Hes sold out the fans before. Whats stopping him as long as the Pats continue to win?

Nobody is giving up a boatload of anything valuable for a 40 year old QB. Especially a team that isn't even close to contending.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Nobody is giving up a boatload of anything valuable for a 40 year old QB. Especially a team that isn't even close to contending.

You are talking about two desperate franchises here who has shown zero competence.

With that said, the 49ers got a 1st rounder for 36 year old Joe Montana and Tom is 1000% better shape than Joe and has 2-3 more years in him.

 

[kennyb]

Still don't think anyone is going to treat him like the second coming after seeing 6 quarters.

A late first maybe.

As for brady to sf, if he threatens to retire, then that falls apart. Does he have a no trade clause?

 

[kennyb]

What would the mindset of kraft be to trade the goat qb who brought 4 or 5 sbs and rescued the team from perpetual mediocrity to palookaville so he could bet it on 6 quarters JG?

What would the fan reaction be?

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

Still don't think anyone is going to treat him like the second coming after seeing 6 quarters.

A late first maybe.

As for brady to sf, if he threatens to retire, then that falls apart. Does he have a no trade clause?

Disagree. He's better than any of these QBs coming out. I feel we will get multiple picks in the end if he's moved.

 

[fnordcircle]

What would the mindset of kraft be to trade the goat qb who brought 4 or 5 sbs and rescued the team from perpetual mediocrity to palookaville so he could bet it on 6 quarters JG?

What would the fan reaction be?

I get that Kraft hating is a year-long sport around here now, but there's no way that trading Brady would be Kraft's call. If Brady gets trade BB made the call.

 

[deroc5050]

I doubt that Brady would be happy with a move to any west coast team, with or without Josh. Such a trade would virtually eliminate any chance of his winning additional titles, could possibly result in losing seasons thus tarnishing his legacy, and, finally, might get him killed behind a crappy offensive line. If informed that he was being traded, he might just say "I'm retiring."

Nope, no chance. If Brady wanted to play he is going to play.. and the **** you tour will be directed at the Pats for trading him.

 

[kennyb]

It's kraft's team, you think bb won't call him? You think he wouldn't have veto power? "Hi bob, we just traded Brady for a whole bunch of Cyrus jones picks".

How is that hating kraft? I don't think he'd do it.

 

[deroc5050]

What would the mindset of kraft be to trade the goat qb who brought 4 or 5 sbs and rescued the team from perpetual mediocrity to palookaville so he could bet it on 6 quarters JG?

What would the fan reaction be?

Fans that have less knowledge about football but love the Patriots which is probably 85% of fans.. well its hard to give a % but I think those fans would be ****ing outraged.

The smartest football fans would be saddened/pissed off but would understand the move.

The pink hats.. who cares what they think.

You wouldn't be betting it on 6 quarters. BB clearly has a much bigger picture of JG's potential. From practice through training camp and now some game action. Plus he probably has a good idea of makes JG tick as a person.

 

[kennyb]

Nope, no chance. If Brady wanted to play he is going to play.. and the **** you tour will be directed at the Pats for trading him.

There's no chance Brady retires if traded to a terrible team? "If Brady wants to play, he'll play". You realize you didn't answer the question as to whether he'll want to play, which is what the poster was opining on. I think he wants to win sbs, not play for a terrible team as a 40 year old.

As to his fu tour, that's a little difficult with a 2-14 team that would only play ne if they got to the sb. So that's ridiculous.

 

[deroc5050]

There's no chance Brady retires if traded to a terrible team? "If Brady wants to play, he'll play". You realize you didn't answer the question as to whether he'll want to play, which is what the poster was opining on. I think he wants to win sbs, not play for a terrible team as a 40 year old.

As to his fu tour, that's a little difficult with a 2-14 team that would only play ne if they got to the sb. So that's ridiculous.

If Brady wants to play, he is going to play. Plain and simple. Brady makes the team he goes to an automatic playoff team.

 

[kennyb]

Fans that have less knowledge about football but love the Patriots which is probably 85% of fans.. well its hard to give a % but I think those fans would be ****ing outraged.

The smartest football fans would be saddened/pissed off but would understand the move.

The pink hats.. who cares what they think.

Who are the pink hats?

I think kraft would realize it's a terrible PR move and wouldn't do it. And I think he'd have veto power.

 

[deroc5050]

Who are the pink hats?

I think kraft would realize it's a terrible PR move and wouldn't do it. And I think he'd have veto power.

The pink hats are the people who jumped on the Pats bandwagon but don't know **** about football. Its more of a Red Sox fan reference.

And I agree that Kraft would veto a Brady trade. I just don't think it would come to that. Bill is not going to trade Tom.

 

[kennyb]

If Brady wants to play, he is going to play. Plain and simple. Brady makes the team he goes to an automatic playoff team.

I don't dispute that he would play if he wanted to. I don't think he would want to. So your statement isn't saying anything.

I don't think he makes 2-14 basket case sf into an 8-8 team let alone playoffs but it's debateable.

 

[heavyde050]

Fans that have less knowledge about football but love the Patriots which is probably 85% of fans.. well its hard to give a % but I think those fans would be ****ing outraged.

The smartest football fans would be saddened/pissed off but would understand the move.

The pink hats.. who cares what they think.

You wouldn't be betting it on 6 quarters. BB clearly has a much bigger picture of JG's potential. From practice through training camp and now some game action. Plus he probably has a good idea of makes JG tick as a person.

FWIW, BB has watched JG his entire career and still spent a relatively high pick (3rd round) on another QB last year.
There is no reason to pick Jimmy G over Brady if we are talking about 2017 to 2019. Moving Brady instead of Jimmy G decreases the Pats' SB chances over that time frame.
BB is cold-blooded; he didn't give Bledsoe back his job because Brady earned it. IIRC, there was talk around the Patriots that Brady had been outplaying Bledsoe in the preseason and the practices. I have yet to see/hear any of that about Jimmy G.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The pink hats are the people who jumped on the Pats bandwagon but don't know **** about football. Its more of a Red Sox fan reference.

And I agree that Kraft would veto a Brady trade. I just don't think it would come to that. Bill is not going to trade Tom.

BB will not trade Tom.

If Kraft tells BB he can't trade Tom, Bill will quit.

 

[upstater1]

When I first learned about sunk cost theory, I thought it was damn near pointless because at any level of professional evaluation it should just be common sense.

Decisions like this constantly prove that initial thought wrong. Bortles is a sunk cost, and he sucks

I work for an institution that has sunk 200m into a failing unit, and it bleeds 25m a year. And it can't let it go.

That said, sunk costs are trickier when it comes to players. It's not like a replacement guarantees you better performance.

Look at Alex Smith. He's not great, but he's better than what San Fran has.