A little early, but: should the Patriots try to re-sign Wes Welker?

[Huckleberry1]

Why would Talib sign a contract that only averages $6 million/year when a second tier cornerback such as Richard Marshall signed a 3 year, $16 million contract?

Richard Marshall - Miami Dolphins - 2013 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

Tip, if you re-read my post you will see that I called it doubtful that he would sign for a lower end deal if bigger money is on the table.

 

[JackBauer]

Talib's not important, in and of himself. A CB capable of keeping McCourty at the S position is important. At this point, I think you keep McCourty at safety and hope he avoids Eugene Wilson Syndrome.

While this is certainly true, the commodity you've described has been seen around these parts about as often as the abominable snowman in recent years. Luckily unless Talib is completely full of it he seems to have found himself here and hopefully that will factor in to some extent in the contract negotiations.

 

[JackBauer]

Just the targets alone at 174 speak volumes to what would happen if he were gone.

They'd have to redistribute his targets to other players in the offense?

 

[Deus Irae]

While this is certainly true, the commodity you've described has been seen around these parts about as often as the abominable snowman in recent years. Luckily unless Talib is completely full of it he seems to have found himself here and hopefully that will factor in to some extent in the contract negotiations.

While I agree with your sentiments, my point was that if the 'troubled' Talib is asking for too much money, the team can look elsewhere for a viable replacement. As we've seen in recent years, looking is no guarantee of successfully finding.

 

[JackBauer]

While I agree with your sentiments, my point was that if the 'troubled' Talib is asking for too much money, the team can look elsewhere for a viable replacement. As we've seen in recent years, looking is no guarantee of successfully finding.

Agreed.

I certainly hope he works out. It would be great to use the limited resources at our disposal (particularly in the draft) on other areas of need...DE/DT, S, WR, OG/OT.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

So............. trade Brady?

No smart ass, I said let Welker walk, never mentioned Brady.

 

[Deus Irae]

No smart ass, I said let Welker walk, never mentioned Brady.

Read the exchange with Manxman, who was trolling. You'll see the point of the "trade Brady" comment.

 

[JackBauer]

No smart ass, I said let Welker walk, never mentioned Brady.

Curious but how and with whom do you plan on replacing Welker, should the Patriots decide to follow your course of action?

 

[RobertWeathers]

It doesnt matter. Thats what he costs, thats what players his age get, and he is invaluable to this team. Let me guess, next it will be let Brady go to save on the cap?.

I really don't know why you keep bringing up this cut Brady stuff. I almost think you are doing it just to try to prove a point when it a horrible example to use...

He has not at all been an upgrade over McCourty. He has helped the D by allowing McCourty to upgrade the safety position, but it is ridiculous to say Talib has played better at corner as a Patriot this season than McCourty, simply ridiculous.
I know there is a lot of hope for Talib to play well, but he has been awful in 2 games (remember everyone blamed the first one on rustiness) and has missed others. He has not been above average in any way, other than the hopes of fans. Yes, if healthy he can be, but that hasn't happened on the field consistently yet.

We'll agree to disagree here. Talib represents an upgrade over McCourty.

But health is the most important part of the equation. You can't pay or value a guy who has health issues as if they didn't exist.
I think we can agree that for the last 2 seasons Vollmer has been an average RT at best, and an unreliable one as well. Right?

I think hes been above average.

Where do you get #16 of all NFL OL? Did you make that up?
And that was his best season ever and he hasn't played nearly as well in 2 years.

I read it somewhere. The criteria was sacks allowed, # 4yd gains to their side, hurries allowed, stuff like that. He finished #16 in You know I do not make stuff up.

There is no such statistic and even the bogus ones don't put him there.

Well you are wrong because i read it. I think it was in football outsiders. I read it once the pats acquired him.

Many players have obscure awards, that doesnt mean they are one of the top 50 players in the league, especially 2 years, and many issues later.
Do we agree neither has ever made a probowl, meaning the peers and coaches have never had them in the top 100 in any season?.

I think when healthy and playing up to their ability they are dominant players. Call it top 50. Your ranking is different than mine.

I didn't say he sucks, but top 50 is ridiculous, totally ridiculous.

Of course you won't find anyone anywhere arguing Welker is not in the top 50, and that is the less risky guy you are championing keeping these risky ones ahead of while at the same time ignoring the design of our offense, the best offense in the NFL, revolves around Welkers role.

I don't think the offense resolves around WWs role. The offense is designed around TB's strengths of reading defenses and making decisions that put the offense in the best position to suceed.

 

[Deus Irae]

Curious but how and with whom do you plan on replacing Welker, should the Patriots decide to follow your course of action?

Don't forget, it's more than just letting him go if he's asking too much. He's letting him just walk away after a Super Bowl win:

Let him win this Sb and then walk, focus on defense.

 

[JackBauer]

Don't forget, it's more than just letting him go if he's asking too much. He's letting him just walk away after a Super Bowl win:

I don't know why prioritizing Welker and focusing on defense need be mutually exclusive. Even if Talib walks, if Welker goes WR instantly becomes the weakest position on the team. Given the scattershot track record in both FA and the draft, I don't have much faith the FO can accept that level of risk when it comes to replacing WW's production. If we had something coming down the pike it might be different but there is literally nothing.

1.) Re-sign Welker
2.) Re-sign Talib and Vollmer if they're not priced out
3.) Use draft to shore up OL and add defensive pieces

 

[RobertWeathers]

Here are the problems:

1.) You're looking at the numbers of outside receivers and comparing them to Welker (with Welker winning the comparisons, by the way), while you're not arguing that Welker should be paid at the top of the outside WR charts, along with Fitzgerald and Johnson. You're basically arguing that even though his numbers are better than a select list of all-time greats, he should take a crappy deal. That makes no sense.

First of all, i never stated that WW should take a crappy deal. I've always said that the Patriots should not pay huge money for a WR whos taken a ton of punishment and will be 32 next season and other reasons that ive alrady mentioned.

You brought up the particulars of WWs career numbers. What kind of response where you hoping for? Simple yes answers? i'm confused..

2.) You avoided answering my questions, when they went to the point of current and recent productivity for the sake of determining future worth.

3.) Your examples:

Herman Moore was done before he ever reached 30 years of age. From age 30-33, he totaled 60 catches.

Jerry Rice played until he was 41, and he had a 92 reception season at the age of 40. He also had 3 straight 100 catch seasons from age 32-34, and the reason that he had a drop off at age 35 was that he suffered an ACL/MCL injury and missed almost all of the season, so he's clearly buttresses the Welker case as opposed to undermining it.

Marvin Harrison, while not reaching 100 catches again after the age of 30 (something Welker's obviously not had a problem doing), still had a pair of 90+ catch seasons and a pair of 80+ catch seasons from age 31-34. His precipitous decline after that, like Rice's, came as the result of a knee injury which cost him most of the season (Unlike Rice, Harrison had an injury from which he never really rebounded).

Chris Carter, like Harrison, never got past 100 catches after age 30. Again, Welker's had no problem doing so. Carter, however, played until he was 37, and had 3 90+ catch seasons, an 89 catch season and 2 seasons with 70+ catches before his final season.

I could go on, but I think the point is obvious:

Welker, who's done something nobody has ever done, is in the kind of company that shows he's likely to have mulitiple years of high production left in his career. Now, I'm not saying that he should be paid like a Fitzgerald/Johnson, because I think he's essentially created a second type of WR who should be paid at a slightly different level, but he deserves significant remunerations for his efforts, and the desire of people here to low ball him is an embarrassment.

ok. i've stated what i think the pats should pay WW. please list out what you think they should pay for his services. I do not think they should pay big money for a WR who will be 32 years old regardless.

 

[aluminum seats]

1.) Re-sign Welker
2.) Re-sign Talib and Vollmer if they're not priced out
3.) Use draft to shore up OL and add defensive pieces

Agree w/the priorities...might put Edelman & Woodhead in there as a "2a" kind of thing.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Of course it is belittling to reduce the discussion about the value of Wes Welker to "I'm sure BB doesn't stand in the lockerroom saying we cant win without Welker" and the post you thought was sarcastic was not it was a response to you turning the discussion of the value of Wellker into 'well every player on the team has value too'. As I said and meant then, if you don't want to be realistic, lets just stop the conversation..

I really don't understand what I stated is unrealistic. This is potentially the Richard Seymour/Asante Samuel situation all over again re: they player has a tremendous amount of value to the team and on the market, but has a salary requirement that is more that what we either can afford or want to pay. Thats not belitting or unrealistic- that is part of a roster/team building exercise and since we get to play GM on this board, I will use that approach in determining if WW fits on the 2013 Pats and beyond.

This is another example of your disingenuous approach.
We are discussing what we would do without knowing what the team will do, and you attempt to buoy your stance by saying you know what they think. You don't.


I'm not reading anything into it, I am reading and responding to exactly what you are saying.

Ug. It's part of my thought-process and I am sharing it with you. Just saying WW needs to be on the team just because he is incredibly valueble to offense (which is what I am hearing you say) I think represents a partial view of the decision making process in whether a player stays or goes.

 

[supafly]

They'd have to redistribute his targets to other players in the offense?

Of course they would, but with 174 targets I think it shows his value in being where he's supposed to be, and also bailing Brady out of jams.

174 targets shows that he is truly Brady's right hand man, and that the offense would indeed go through a period of transformation without him.

The 72 first downs speak volumes to me too.

They may be able to end up doing okay after some growth period, but it isn't something I want to see happen, especially when all accounts point to Welker not trying to break the bank, but simply get paid something "fair."

 

[Ring 6]

I really don't know why you keep bringing up this cut Brady stuff. I almost think you are doing it just to try to prove a point when it a horrible example to use...

Because you are approaching this from a standpoint of Welker is costly so must go. Brady is the most extreme example to illustrate it is foolish to let outstanding players go to afford more JAGs.

We'll agree to disagree here. Talib represents an upgrade over McCourty.

Wait, you are telling me that you think Talibs play in 2012 as a Patriot at corner has been better than McCourtys play in 2012 at corner as a Patriot?
If you really believe that, I might as well talk football with a plant.
Talib hasn't even been on the field for a large chunk of his Patriot career.

I think hes been above average.

Well you haven't been watching his struggles, I supopose, but 'above average' is a long way from top 50 and not in the same universe as Welker.

I read it somewhere. The criteria was sacks allowed, # 4yd gains to their side, hurries allowed, stuff like that. He finished #16 in You know I do not make stuff up.

Come on. You are telling me his is the 16th best because you read SOMEWHERE that someone had a ranking system that you don't quite know what it was, when it covered or what the quality of the person making the assessment is, and it ranked him 16th, so that makes him 16th best? How does 16th best RT make him top 50?

Well you are wrong because i read it. I think it was in football outsiders. I read it once the pats acquired him.

How can I be wrong when there simply is no such statistic?
QB rating is a QBs statistics. Nowhere in any legitimate statistical realm is there a 'passer rating against a defender'. It doesn't exist. Anyone who wants to try to make such a statistic would have to know the coverage, the responsiblities, and determine who to 'blame' the catch on.
It is a made up statistic and useless.

I think when healthy and playing up to their ability they are dominant players. Call it top 50. Your ranking is different than mine.

That means that there are only 48 players combined on the other 31 teams that are better than Talib and Vollmer.
Please give me a list of the teams that either would be the best or 2nd best player on. Please tell me which Patriots they are not better than. I have them no better than 10th on their own team, you have them on average behind only 1.5 players on each team. You cannot seriously be defending that they are top 50 in the NFL. But I'll review your list before discussing further.

I don't think the offense resolves around WWs role. The offense is designed around TB's strengths of reading defenses and making decisions that put the offense in the best position to suceed.

Then you do not understand the offense.
The pass patterns and plays do revolve around the QB. The QB is most responsible for executing them.
I think you would agree that if we had the Jets set of receivers, or the Broncos, or the Cardinals, or any teams, we would call different plays than we call for our own set right?
The plays that are designed and called revolve around the role of Welker. That is blatantly obvious to anyone watching who knows what they are looking at.
Pass plays are designed with complementary routes that work together to attack a coverage, part of the field and/or defender. The concept of your passing game has to center around a part of it. There is simply no question that the offense we have run here for years is designed to play off of what Welker does, and how that affects the way we are defended.
Come on, you know that, you are just being argumentative now.

 

[Ring 6]

Of course they would, but with 174 targets I think it shows his value in being where he's supposed to be, and also bailing Brady out of jams.

174 targets shows that he is truly Brady's right hand man, and that the offense would indeed go through a period of transformation without him.

The 72 first downs speak volumes to me too.

They may be able to end up doing okay after some growth period, but it isn't something I want to see happen, especially when all accounts point to Welker not trying to break the bank, but simply get paid something "fair."

174 targets say he got open 174 times. We won't find someone else who can do that.

 

[Ring 6]

I really don't understand what I stated is unrealistic.

OK, then lets just move on. If you cannot discuss the value of a player without there being 2 choices:
1) BB sits and cries that he cant win without him
2) We don't need him
Then there is no reason to have a discussion.

This is potentially the Richard Seymour/Asante Samuel situation all over again

How is it the same? There are many variables that are very different. You can't see that?

re: they player has a tremendous amount of value to the team and on the market, but has a salary requirement that is more that what we either can afford or want to pay.

We can afford to pay Welker very easily.

Thats not belitting or unrealistic- that is part of a roster/team building exercise and since we get to play GM on this board, I will use that approach in determining if WW fits on the 2013 Pats and beyond.

Then use it consistently. You are championing lesser players that are riskier signings.

Ug. It's part of my thought-process and I am sharing it with you. Just saying WW needs to be on the team just because he is incredibly valueble to offense (which is what I am hearing you say) I think represents a partial view of the decision making process in whether a player stays or goes.

What else matters? We are trying to field the best team right? That means when you have the best offense in the NFL you keep the vital pieces rather than cowering in fear that their 4th year of their contract may be less productive.
You think players who arent as good or valuable need to be on the team, even thought they without question represent a greater risk so your logic is horrendous here.
The fact that you cover that problem by saying if they didn't have their built in risks they wouldn't be risky just makes your position look ignorant.

I mean keep the lesser player who is riskier because the better player has risk too, but less, is foolish. And that, in addition to telling me Vollmer is about as good as Red Bryant, Nick Mangold, Von Miller, Ray Rice, Adrain Foster, Jarod Allen, JPP, Clay Matthews, etc ,etc is silly. (Note your top 50 means the 2nd best player on 16 teams is not as good, so there is a sampling of guys who are 2nd best or worse for you to work from)

 

[Ring 6]

Why would Talib sign a contract that only averages $6 million/year when a second tier cornerback such as Richard Marshall signed a 3 year, $16 million contract?

Richard Marshall - Miami Dolphins - 2013 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

Because he is a 2nd tier corner with a lot baggage, who has missed half of this season with injuries and suspensions and played like a mediocre corner the other half of it.

I get that people wish Talib would come here and play like an allpro corner and that he may possibly have the skillset to do that, but no one honestly watching his play as a Patriot can say it has been good. I'm not giving up on him, but he has struggled here, and if he wasn't considered a savior would be being talked about like Arrington right now.

 

[JackBauer]

Because he is a 2nd tier corner with a lot baggage, who has missed half of this season with injuries and suspensions and played like a mediocre corner the other half of it.

I get that people wish Talib would come here and play like an allpro corner and that he may possibly have the skillset to do that, but no one honestly watching his play as a Patriot can say it has been good. I'm not giving up on him, but he has struggled here, and if he wasn't considered a savior would be being talked about like Arrington right now.

Sample size is very limited, but Talib was very good vs. Andre Johnson prior to the injury. In general I think your evaluation is too negative.