A little early, but: should the Patriots try to re-sign Wes Welker?

[supafly]

According to one NFL analyst, Aqib Talib is the top rated cornerback in the upcoming 2013 unrestricted free agent market. It's hard to argue against that analysis especially considering Brent Grimes is recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. Why would Aqib Talib even bother listening to discounts? 5 years $50 million is the current market for a top notch unrestricted free agent cornerback.

This message board has become so ridiculous that every potential unrestricted free agent should take the "home town discount" when that wasn't the case whatsoever with Brady, Wilfork, Mankins, Mayo, Welker.

Pay Wes Welker and if that means Talib and Vollmer depart, so be it.

No one is claiming that they want Talib to receive any "home town discount," the debate is over what his worth is to the New England Patriots, and that is where we differ.

Using the fact that "one NFL analyst is rating him as the top FA corner" is nice, but it's also one man's opinion. Let's remember that Talib has not contributed here all that much yet, and when he came here not only was he having a pretty lousy year statistics wise, but he was also under suspension and there were many, many rumors that he was in danger of being outright cut for being unproductive and a pain in the ass.

I think the bar has been set so incredibly low around here in the secondary in the past few years that when we finally see some improvement we automatically start making that player (who hasn't really played all that much) THE top CB free agent in the entire NFL...c'mon.

Comparing Aqib Talib to Cortland Finnegan or Brandon Carr and their 5 year/50 million dollar contracts is silly in my opinion.

If someone is willing to pay him that kind of money instead of the 7-8 million or so (on a shorter term pact, no less) that we may offer him, then that's their stupidity.

Apparently you don't remember the big debates when he came here in mid-Nov about his shoddy stats this year, passes allowed, yardage allowed, completion percentage allowed, opponent passer rating, etc...

Now all of a sudden he plays in the IND, NYJ, MIA, and 1/2 of the HOU game and he's due more money than Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan after deflecting 2 passes in those 3 1/2 games. That's quite a large leap from being in danger of an outright cut for the Tampa Bay Bucs and their insanely pathetic pass defense, while serving a suspension and putting up crappy numbers.

 

[Huckleberry1]

How about WR who can consistently threaten the deep part of the field or a consistent outside the numbers Threat? Brandon Lloyd is a complementary WR at best...in 2013 I woudn't feel comfortable with him alone as our lone outside threat. The Pats Offense do most of their damage over the middle, we need to mix it up more on the outsides...Our Offense is Very Good but Not complete. As good we are inside the numbes some Teams like Greenbay -Atlanta and the Saints are Great outside the numbers.

They will have to draft one because they won't have the money. That's the best route to go anyways as a deep threat is only going to see 40-50 balls and shouldn't tie up big money.

 

[ATippett56]

Comparing Aqib Talib to Cortland Finnegan or Brandon Carr and their 5 year/50 million dollar contracts is silly in my opinion.

One last item regarding the 2013 League Year:

Per-team spending minimum doesn’t apply until 2013 | ProFootballTalk

 

[supafly]

How about WR who can consistently threaten the deep part of the field or a consistent outside the numbers Threat? Brandon Lloyd is a complementary WR at best...in 2013 I woudn't feel comfortable with him alone as our lone outside threat. The Pats Offense do most of their damage over the middle, we need to mix it up more on the outsides...Our Offense is Very Good but Not complete. As good we are inside the numbes some Teams like Greenbay -Atlanta and the Saints are Great outside the numbers.

I think many of us feel as though that would be the final push for an insane offensive output, but then we go back and look at the ridiculously productive offensive numbers already, not to mention the fact that we've improved again since last year too.

It seems as though the deeper, "stretch the field" young WR will still be courted and that the issue will try and be resolved again, and then I actually wonder sometimes if Bill Belichick even sees it as an "issue" at all? It's certainly a great fantasy to think about the kind of WR you speak of, but it's also hard to argue with the kind of offensive production that we've seen lately too.

One way or another I think the team will finally hit on a younger WR. The problem is that many of them simply aren't a fit for this system, and I think that limits the possibilities a lot. I also think that this system is tailored to get rid of the ball quicker and utilize Brady's talents with finding the open man. It may also allow him to even potentially take less hits and extend his career a bit. Hell, for all we know maybe Belichick even believes that Brady isn't the best deep ball passer anyway, so this kind of system may provide more benefit to him?

I'd be very interested to hear Belichick's thoughts on the entire subject, no doubt about that.

As far as it pertains to keeping Welker I just have a hard time seeing them let him walk at this point. He provides a security blanket for Brady and is one of the all around toughest WR's in the entire game.

 

[supafly]

One last item regarding the 2013 League Year:

Per-team spending minimum doesn’t apply until 2013 | ProFootballTalk

I think you are certainly right that someone always tends to overpay, and the cap minimum will likely add to the spending spree, but then we see the flat cap remain again and that tends to even things out in my opinion.

We will have to see if Talib draws the kind of interest that you are projecting or not. Personally I see what you are saying, but we are not seeing the same value on the player.

I just don't think that he has permanently made the move to the "elite" category for top tier CBs like Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan that you are putting him in. I think he could potentially do that if/when he plays at an elite level again for at least another season.

Several games out of a terrible stretch both statistically and attitude-wise do not equal the likes of 50+ million dollar contracts for me, although it is a step in the right direction. He would have to prove himself to me personally, for a longer period of time but on and off the field. To you, maybe not so much...

 

[ATippett56]

How about WR who can consistently threaten the deep part of the field or a consistent outside the numbers Threat? Brandon Lloyd is a complementary WR at best...in 2013 I woudn't feel comfortable with him alone as our lone outside threat. The Pats Offense do most of their damage over the middle, we need to mix it up more on the outsides...

How about re-signing Wes Welker instead?

Our Offense is Very Good but Not complete.

That's a bunch of baloney!

New England Patriots Offensive Rankings

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Points per Game on TeamRankings.com

Points per Game - First

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) on TeamRankings.com

Red Zone % - First

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Yards per Game on TeamRankings.com

Total Yards per Game - First

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team First Downs per Game on TeamRankings.com

First Downs per Game - First

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Third Down Conversion Percentage on TeamRankings.com

Third Down Conversion % - First

I guess ranking first in a slew of offensive categories just isn't good enough for you?

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Hmmmm, I wonder what is more important, winning more Super Bowls before Brady hangs them up or having a few million extra 4 years from now?


Screw winning more championships. Time to get rid of Welker, otherwise they won't be able to re-sign Brandon Bolden in 2015.

No one said Brandon Bolden...


Try Steven Ridley, Sebastian Vollmer, Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty, Aqib Talib, Nate Solder, Ryan Wendall, Brandon Spikes, Chandler Jones, Dante Hightower....

There are a lot of players that they'll want to keep on this team. They may let Chung walk if he asks for anything stupid, but hes excellent depth and can be utilized in this defense. I really like McCourty and Gregory at safety though, but they NEED Talib in order to continue that.

Don't be cute and try to use nobodies like Brandon Bolden, there are clear cut players that will be the foundation of this team for years to come that are going to need new contracts, like the players I listed above.. No one is worried about brandon bolden, to even use him as an example is just you trying to sensationalize and distract from the point.

 

[Deus Irae]

No one said Brandon Bolden...


Try Steven Ridley, Sebastian Vollmer, Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty, Aqib Talib, Nate Solder, Ryan Wendall, Brandon Spikes, Chandler Jones, Dante Hightower....

There are a lot of players that they'll want to keep on this team. They may let Chung walk if he asks for anything stupid, but hes excellent depth and can be utilized in this defense. I really like McCourty and Gregory at safety though, but they NEED Talib in order to continue that.

Don't be cute and try to use nobodies like Brandon Bolden, there are clear cut players that will be the foundation of this team for years to come that are going to need new contracts, like the players I listed above.. No one is worried about brandon bolden, to even use him as an example is just you trying to sensationalize and distract from the point.

First, you're including players who shouldn't be included because of their play(Chung). Second, you're including players who's deals are down the road past when a 3 year Welker deal would be an issue, such as Jones and Hightower.

You probably shouldn't be admonishing Ivan about his allegedly trying to sensationalize and distract while doing the same thing you're accusing him of doing, and doing it on a grander scale.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Oh God, not the Edelman can easily replace Welker argument.
Just to address your claim that Brady and Edelman were developing the same chemistry as Brady and Welker, here were Edelmans reception totals in his last 6 games 2, 1, 0, 5, 2, 1. Thats 11 in 6 games and 6 in total in 5 of them.
Sorry to interupt your theory with facts.

Yea but that is also because Welker was on the field and taking a majority of the targets. Edelman filled in nicely that year that Welker went down in the Texans game with his knee injury and had 11 catches and like 2 TDs against the Ravens in the playoffs.

I think that Edelman could take over Welker's role and be productive, but obviously not quite as productive as Welker.. But thats just the thing, do you pay Welker $10M a year for 110 catches, or pay Julian Edelman $1M a year for 90 catches and use that $9M in savings on signing/extending multiple players, or going after a big bodied, deep threat like Bowe to add an extra dimension to our passing attack.

The case can be made, I don't think the Front Office will be wrong either way, what they should have done was extend Welker years ago to avoid all of this, but I can see them going either way, either moving on from Welker or paying him a decent contract for 3-4 years.

Personally I won't be shocked to see Welker playing in another teams uniform next year sitting on a mega contract with lots o guaranteed monies

 

[JarOfMayo51]

I would be ecstatic if he would sign for 3/24. But his agent will probably want more.

Probably want more? lol... If Welker goes to another team, it will be 3/30+ with 20 or so guaranteed. He will land a monster contract somewhere else, and he deserves it, but I wouldn't want to see the Pats screw their cap future ala the Colts with Marvin Harrison on a 32 year old receiver.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yea but that is also because Welker was on the field and taking a majority of the targets. Edelman filled in nicely that year that Welker went down in the Texans game with his knee injury and had 11 catches and like 2 TDs against the Ravens in the playoffs.

:bricks:

He rang up some stats in a blowout. Edelman is not a Welker replacement.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Welker should have the good sense to realize that he isn't worth as much anywhere else. He has a great QB throwing to him now, where's he going to go to get that? 18M / 3 years with 12M guaranteed shoujld be more than enough...he should take one for the team.

Sometimes when he catches the ball it looks like the ball is about to swallow him up he's so tiny. All it takes is for him to slow down a bit and he'll be pedestrian. I like the guy too, but he needs to be realistic, he's not going to get paid like the true #1 guys.

Welker and his agent would be fools to agree to a contract that small. Also, no he should not take one for the team, because hes already been taking one for the team for the last 5 years on his slave contract that the Patriots got him with in the trade with Miami.

Welker deserves to be paid top dollar and he won't get it from the Patriots. They will either franchise him for the year and try to make another run with him, trade him, or just let him go and we'll get a 3rd round compensatory pick for him.

There is no home town discount, Welker is one of the greatest slot receivers to ever play the game and he hasnt had his big contract yet in his career.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

I don't disagree with this but as much as I hate to admit it Felger made a good point with his "the cap is crap" schtick in citing the Manning lead Colts. They never seemed impacted by the dreaded cap when it came to retaining their quality players.

Ha, the Colts gambled with those contracts, they had so much money tied up in such few players, if they sustained an injury to any one of them they were screwed.

Oh, and Marvin Harrison's contract haunted them and their cap for years after he retired.. dont even kid yourself.. The Colts had ZERO depth on that team and it was directly the result of their poor cap management to keep all the big name players

 

[Ring 6]

The Patriots had other options on the DL if they wanted to keep Seymour, such as not paying Warren, so the speculation that it was a decision to sign Wilfork that led to Seymour leaving is just that, speculation.

Everything is speculatoin, but this is pretty obvious.
Warren wouldn't have touched the amount of money.
It was Seymour or Wilfork, not accepting that is simply being in denial.

While making mistakes is always a part of personel decisions there are riskier decisions, such as Ocho and Haynesworth that really don't need to be made, and if the only thing blocking them from getting Welker done is that they will have a little less money to take those risks then i have no problem with that.

I have no idea what you are talking about. Those were risks at positions of need where there was cap room to use. Why do they have anything to do with what we are discussing? Your argument seems to be the cap isn;t a problem if you only never make a mistake, which is silly.

To me maximizing Brady's remaining years is the priority, not cap frugality.

Huh? Do you understand the cap? Who has ever suggested being a worse team in order to not spend money?
The cap is about choosing between options, not saying spend or don't.

that doesn't mean they should blow money left and right like the Yankees or dodgers, it just means they should be more aggressive with their highest quality players to make sure they don't lose them.

It sounds like you support a top heavy salary structure. I don't think that is the best way to build the best team today.
Again, Im not sure you understand the cap.

Teams should take different approaches depending upon the situation they find themselves in and my position in this all along has been that they are poised for championships and should solidify their position and improve it, not deliberately get worse.

Who deliberately gets worse? Are you supporting mortgaging the future? Are you talking about a Dan Snyder approach? Sounds like it

As i said before, I think we agree on his value.

So what is the gripe?

 

[Ring 6]

Yea but that is also because Welker was on the field and taking a majority of the targets. Edelman filled in nicely that year that Welker went down in the Texans game with his knee injury and had 11 catches and like 2 TDs against the Ravens in the playoffs.

So Welker only sets records because he gets the chance to be on the field and anyone else can do that? 1 game 4 years ago makes him equal to the best ever at his role? Your argument is foolish.

I think that Edelman could take over Welker's role and be productive, but obviously not quite as productive as Welker.. But thats just the thing, do you pay Welker $10M a year for 110 catches, or pay Julian Edelman $1M a year for 90 catches and use that $9M in savings on signing/extending multiple players, or going after a big bodied, deep threat like Bowe to add an extra dimension to our passing attack.

Lets save 19mill at QB, because clearly Mallett can replace Brady at a fraction of the cost too.
90 catches, lol. He doesnt have that in his career.
We dont need another dimension, we have the best offense in the NFL.

The case can be made, I don't think the Front Office will be wrong either way, what they should have done was extend Welker years ago to avoid all of this, but I can see them going either way, either moving on from Welker or paying him a decent contract for 3-4 years.

Why would they have done that? According to you a guy who caught 11 passes in 2010 and 2011 COMBINED (yes that is less than Welker caught in a signle game twice this year and last as well) could easily replace him. Trade him for a 7th.

Personally I won't be shocked to see Welker playing in another teams uniform next year sitting on a mega contract with lots o guaranteed monies

Lets hope BB is smarter.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Everything is speculatoin, but this is pretty obvious.
Warren wouldn't have touched the amount of money.
It was Seymour or Wilfork, not accepting that is simply being in denial.


I have no idea what you are talking about. Those were risks at positions of need where there was cap room to use. Why do they have anything to do with what we are discussing? Your argument seems to be the cap isn;t a problem if you only never make a mistake, which is silly.




Huh? Do you understand the cap? Who has ever suggested being a worse team in order to not spend money?
The cap is about choosing between options, not saying spend or don't.



It sounds like you support a top heavy salary structure. I don't think that is the best way to build the best team today.
Again, Im not sure you understand the cap.




Who deliberately gets worse? Are you supporting mortgaging the future? Are you talking about a Dan Snyder approach? Sounds like it


So what is the gripe?

Your the one with the gripe Andy, not me. I have been making the case that the Patriots can afford to pay Welker 4-40 and you chimed in supporting those who were arguing with me. You believe that the decision was between Wilfork and Seymour and I believe Seymour wanted more than they were going to pay him and traded him for that reason. And yes, the people I have been arguing with want them to get rids of Welker rather than pay him a fair deal, and Edelman to replace him, which would absolutely make them worse. I believe paying welker that money won't hurt them and see keeping him as vital to success for Brady's stretch run. And yes Andy, despite your constant snark I do understand the cap and don't beleive paying Welker is going to hurt them and if it costs them a few million they can't use elsewhere i am more than willing to sacrifice that. If you need any more answers than that you can read the 1,000 posts I have made on it, because my position has been clear and it has been out there through this whole debate.

 

[zipster9]

Yea but that is also because Welker was on the field and taking a majority of the targets. Edelman filled in nicely that year that Welker went down in the Texans game with his knee injury and had 11 catches and like 2 TDs against the Ravens in the playoffs.

I think that Edelman could take over Welker's role and be productive, but obviously not quite as productive as Welker.. But thats just the thing, do you pay Welker $10M a year for 110 catches, or pay Julian Edelman $1M a year for 90 catches and use that $9M in savings on signing/extending multiple players, or going after a big bodied, deep threat like Bowe to add an extra dimension to our passing attack.

The case can be made, I don't think the Front Office will be wrong either way, what they should have done was extend Welker years ago to avoid all of this, but I can see them going either way, either moving on from Welker or paying him a decent contract for 3-4 years.

Personally I won't be shocked to see Welker playing in another teams uniform next year sitting on a mega contract with lots o guaranteed monies

First of all, you will be mistaken if Edelman will sign a new contract for $1M a year. Pure fantasy.

It is not to say Edelman is a bad slot receiver. He is probably an average+ slot receiver. But, only when healthy. Which is the key. Past history does indicate future health (in most cases). The more Patriots played Edelman this year, the more he became fragile.

Can you say that about Welker?

Nothing is guaranteed, but, again, past history does give a peek at future health.

 

[supafly]

First of all, you will be mistaken if Edelman will sign a new contract for $1M a year. Pure fantasy.

It is not to say Edelman is a bad slot receiver. He is probably an average+ slot receiver. But, only when healthy. Which is the key. Past history does indicate future health (in most cases). The more Patriots played Edelman this year, the more he became fragile.

Can you say that about Welker?

Nothing is guaranteed, but, again, past history does give a peek at future health.

Which is also the main concern regarding a player like Danny Amendola, for those who feel that he may be a better long term move, not that I believe the Rams would part ways with him anyways.

 

[goheels22002]

If the cap is pretty much the same as 2012, Welker's gone. The Pats can go out there and get three quality guys for what they'll have to pay him.

With 7 coaching changes and new GMs around the league, all sorts of quality veterans will be expunged as teams build for new systems. Welker's $10 million/year can be much better spent on some younger guys who can contribute immediately and three/four years down the road.

$10+ million/year is just too much to sink into the slot position at the expense of other positions.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

:bricks:

He rang up some stats in a blowout. Edelman is not a Welker replacement.

I never said he would be a replacement for Welker, I said he would replace some of his production for a lot less money.

Again, do you pay Welker $10M/YR for 110+ catches, or do you pay Edelmen $1-2M/YR for 90 catches and use those savings to strengthen the team in other areas?


What helps the team more:

Wes Welker

or

Aqib Talib + Danny Woodhead?

Granted Woodhead may not be a great example because our RB position is very deep, but I think that Woodhead is a special player for us and is often undervalued. Hes like a white version of Kevin Faulk, he always seems to be able to gash defenses for huge chunks of yardage and is a great 3rd down back. Demps and Vereen though could be used to replace his production as a tandem, but Woodhead is a great player.



Its going to come down to how much of WWs production they think they can replace with Edelman. They know that they won't be able to replace all of it obviously, hes one of the best ever at what he does, but they can replace some of it. They won't go from 110 catches to 0, there will be a falloff but the amount of money they would save could be used somewhere else on the team. Sure it might not relate directly to offensive production from that position, but the team as a whole could still improve overall if the money was used wisely and not spent on wastes of oxygen like Ocho and Haynesworth.