PatsFans.com Menu
PatsFans.com - The Hub For New England Patriots Fans
PatsFans.com - The Hub For New England Patriots Fans

2025 NFL Draft Order Tracker (Tracking the Patriots Draft Position)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Only in the latter case. SOS is interesting in that you can also make a case for saying that highest SOS should draft first (that team "earned" it most), but the NFL chose lowest (that team "needs" it most).
You earn draft slot by being worse not better.
 
I’m gonna try the math


Our 17 opponents have played 14 games each except LA who played Thursday.
So 17x14+1=239 239x.464=110.896 111/239=0.464
So our opponents are 111-128

Jacksonvilles opponents have played 238 because they don’t oppose Denver or LA

So 238x.483=114.954 so their opponents are 115-123

Not as big of a gap as I assumed but if we assume our opponents stay at .464 for Jacksonville to be worst with 17x3=51 games left they would have to end up 289x.464=134.096 with 134 wins or less so their opponents would need to go 20-31 or 0.392

FYI the do the math function in posts is awesome
Actually since Jacksonville must lose out for it to matter that is 3 wins for their opponents so the other 48 games would have to be 17-31 or .354.

I think we are safe to be the highest pick if any team we are tied with.
 
Only in the latter case. SOS is interesting in that you can also make a case for saying that highest SOS should draft first (that team "earned" it most), but the NFL chose lowest (that team "needs" it most).

But the lower strength of schedule means that you lost as many games to worse teams. Since the point is to benefit the worst teams then lower strength of schedule makes sense.
 
Only in the latter case. SOS is interesting in that you can also make a case for saying that highest SOS should draft first (that team "earned" it most), but the NFL chose lowest (that team "needs" it most).
I think the team that need it most is the NFL philosophy.
 
I think the team that need it most is the NFL philosophy.
I don't disagree. My point is simply that there is an argument to be made for rewarding the teams that play the toughest schedules, not that it should be done that way.
 
Several years ago we had a forum member who would post a weekly thread titled "Who To Root For", based on which games helped/hurt the Patriots (plus a few rivals a Pats fan could never root for). In memory of those great threads, I'll attempt to resurrect that thought process.


Remaining Week 16 Games

Rams at Jets - The Patriots have played the Jets twice and the Rams once, so (thankfully) we want the Jets to lose, just as we always do, as it lowers the Pats strength of schedule. While NYJ is close in the current draft order, it doesn't matter as long as the Pats don't pull off an upset in the last three games. Just play competitively and keep the score close.
Root for the Rams.

Browns at Bengals - The Pats played the Bengals but not the Browns, so we want Cincy to lose. In addition a Cleveland victory gives them four wins, so a tiebreaker with the Browns would no longer be in play.
Root for the Browns.

Titans at Colts - A Tennessee victory removes them from the current five-team logjam at 3 wins. In addition, they play Jacksonville twice, so a win hurts the Jaguars' SOS. As a bonus, there is the schadenfreude factor of the Colts being eliminated, resulting in a Jim Irsay alcohol and drug binge, being covered by the idiot Indy Star sports writers Gregg Doyel and some other hack I thankfully cannot remember.
Root for the Titans.

Eagles at Commanders - Neither team plays the Pats or the Raiders this year, they both play the Giants twice and Carolina once, so that doesn't matter either. The only team affected is Jacksonville, who played Philly earlier, so an Eagles win makes the Jags SOS increase. On a side note that also makes the NFC race for the #1 seed more interesting, as well as the race for the #7 seed.
Root for the Eagles.

Lions at Bears - Patriots played Chicago and thankfully never faced Detroit. A Chicago loss lowers the Pats strength of schedule.
Root for the Lions.

Giants at Falcons - Obviously we want the Giants to win their third game (slight throwup in my mouth), so the Patriots can pass them in the draft order. And if that doesn't happen, at least we can watch the train wreck unfold in Atlanta, who decided that it would make sense to spend $90,000,000 on a QB, and rather than use the draft on a player that could help him (WR, OL), they instead used their first round pick on his replacement.
Root for the Giants.

Cardinals at Panthers - A Carolina victory drops them from the ranks of the 3-win teams, avoiding a potential tiebreaker scenario with the Panthers. An Arizona loss also benefits us, by dropping the Pats' SOS.
Root for the Panthers.


Late Games

Vikings at Seahawks - Both teams played the Giants, and neither team played the Raiders, Patriots or Panthers. Minnesota did play Jacksonville though, so if they win that increases the Jaguars' strength of schedule.
Root for the Vikings.

49ers at Dolphins - The Patriots played Miami twice, so this game counts double for New England's SOS. The Raiders and Jaguars played the Dolphins as well, but only once. All three teams benefit from a Miami loss lowering their respective strength of schedules, but moreso for the Patriots.
Root for the 49ers.

Patriots at Bills - Of course we don't want to openly root against our favorite team. But the reality is, we are on to 2025. Hope for a close, competitive game, no injuries, with Buffalo winning on a fluke play or egregiously bad officiating.
Root for whatever feels right to you.

Jaguars at Raiders - The most important game of the season in regards to the 2025 NFL draft order. The Pats did lose to Jacksonville earlier this year, so a Jags win helps their SOS - while simultaneously giving the Jags (who are dangerously close to the Pats in SOS) a fourth win.
On the other hand a Las Vegas victory would give them a third victory, same as New England. The Raiders currently have a .541 SOS, compared to NE's .462; the Raiders would drop from the #1 spot all the way to #7. Wins by Buffalo, NYG and Vegas would mean that the Patriots would own the #1 draft position heading into Week 17.
Root for the Raiders.


Night Games

Bucs at Cowboys - The Giants played both teams; the Pats and Jags played neither. The Raiders played Tampa once, and Carolina plays Tampa twice. As much as it pains me to say this a Tampa Bay loss is helpful to the Patriots. Hopefully the Giants and Raiders win, making this game a moot point, because I just can't bring myself to want to see Jerry Jones' team succeed.
Root for the Cowboys.

Saints at Packers - Jacksonville played Green Bay in week 8, and Carolina plays the Saints twice. More importantly, Las Vegas is at New Orleans next week. Jacksonville (.479 SOS) appears to be a bigger tiebreaker threat to New England (.462 SOS) than Carolina (.498) or Las Vegas (.541). This is a tossup, but I'll go with the result that hurts Jacksonville the most.
Root for the Saints.
 
Giants better beat ATL today! since they will lose their last 2 games
 
It's early I know, but right now the Panthers are winning .
 
Atlanta and penix could actually lose to the giants and Mac jones surely could choke one to the raiders and by the end of the day we could be in the drivers seat for the first pick and since we have zero chance of winning again it would kind of be locked up.
 
Atlanta and penix could actually lose to the giants and Mac jones surely could choke one to the raiders and by the end of the day we could be in the drivers seat for the first pick and since we have zero chance of winning again it would kind of be locked up.
Sadly, Drew Lock has thrown two pick-sixes, and Atlanta is now up big.
 
Sadly, Drew Lock has thrown two pick-sixes, and Atlanta is now up big.
Yeah I posted that when the giants were up 7-0. I think the final was 34-7
Go Raiders.

Giants are cooked. We might even be able to beat them.
 
I think the Giants will get the #1 pick, and if they DON’T pick a QB, they are the dumbest franchise in history.
 
Raiders win, placing the Patriots in the #2 spot for the 2025 NFL draft.

1.) 2-13 Giants, .554 SOS - lost to Atlanta
2.) 3-12 Patriots, .463 - lost to Buffalo
3.) 3-12 Jaguars, .480 - lost to Raiders
4.) 3-12 Titans, .512 - lost to Colts
5.) 3-12 Browns, .530 - lost to Bengals
6.) 3-12 Raiders, .545 - beat Jaguars
7.) 4-11 Panthers, .500 - beat Arizona
8.) 4-11 Jets, .502 - lost to Rams
9.) 4-11 Bears, .557 - lost to Vikings
 
Raiders win, placing the Patriots in the #2 spot for the 2025 NFL draft.

1.) 2-13 Giants, .554 SOS - lost to Atlanta
2.) 3-12 Patriots, .463 - lost to Buffalo
3.) 3-12 Jaguars, .480 - lost to Raiders
4.) 3-12 Titans, .512 - lost to Colts
5.) 3-12 Browns, .530 - lost to Bengals
6.) 3-12 Raiders, .545 - beat Jaguars
7.) 4-11 Panthers, .500 - beat Arizona
8.) 4-11 Jets, .502 - lost to Rams
9.) 4-11 Bears, .557 - lost to Vikings
And so now, things get interesting. I doubt the Patriots can get three firsts like Miami did, but I can certainly see something like, say, the Browns trading up from 5 to 2 for their second this year and next.
 
I was on the fence with trading back with #3…but now I’m leaning that way with #2.
 
I'm not a fan of tanking when you have a QB now but a win in these last 2 games probably costs us a first round pick.

Giants, Titans, Browns, Raiders are all in the QB market and we're going to finish with a higher pick than 3 of them if we just lose out, that has potential to slide back 2/3 spots and pick up another first.
 
I'm not a fan of tanking when you have a QB now but a win in these last 2 games probably costs us a first round pick.

Giants, Titans, Browns, Raiders are all in the QB market and we're going to finish with a higher pick than 3 of them if we just lose out, that has potential to slide back 2/3 spots and pick up another first.

They're not tanking. They're just not very good.
 
They're not tanking YET.
FIFY. I think there will be serious discussion about that in the next few days. “We need to see if Polk and Baker can contribute”.
 
They're not tanking. They're just not very good.
Right. They have attempted to win every game, they just can’t. Hell we lost to how many 3 or 4 win teams?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Patriots Insider on Kayshon Boutte Trade: “I don’t know if it should happen”
Patriots News 05-17,  And Patriots’ Schedule Analysis
MORSE: 2026 Patriots Schedule, Win Projection and UDFA Bonuses
2026 Patriots Schedule Sets Up Tough Start In Vrabel’s Second Season
MORSE: Patriots Rookie Mini Camp and Signings
Patriots News 05-10, Patriots Rookie Minicamp Starts
MORSE: Way Too Early 53-man Roster Projection
Several Remaining Patriots Free Agents Still Seeking Homes
ESPN Insider on A.J. Brown Patriots Trade Rumors: ‘I Think He Knows Where His Future is Headed’
Former Patriots Staffer Reveals Surprising Person Behind Two Key Player Cornerstone Additions in 2021
Back
Top