Pats schedule showing Vegas projected wins total of opponents.
PATRIOTS (8.5) 2022 SCHEDULE
Wk 1: at Miami, 8.5
Wk 2: at Pittsburgh, 7.5
Wk 3: vs. Baltimore, 9.5
Wk 4: at Green Bay, 10.5
Wk 5: vs. Detroit, 6.5
Wk 6: at Cleveland, 10
Wk 7: vs. Chicago, 6.5
Wk 8: at NY Jets, 5.5
Wk 9: vs. Indianapolis, 9.5
Wk 10: Bye week
Wk 11: vs. NY Jets, 5.5
Wk 12: at Minnesota, 8.5
Wk 13: vs. Buffalo, 11.5
Wk 14: at Arizona, 9.5
Wk 15: at Las Vegas, 8.5
Wk 16: vs. Cincinnati, 9.5
Wk 17: vs. Miami, 8.5
Wk 18: at Buffalo, 11.5
Easiest run are Weeks 5 thru 8. Gets difficult after the Bye.
I see 7 easy/probable wins and 8 probable losses. That leaves 2 games that could go either way. The Vegas 8.5 total projected wins seems about right.