My Predictions and break downs
SF @ PHI
To me this is a game about which offense will make less mistakes and which defense can force more, and either score points themselves or allow for short drives. It's also about which team is more battle tested. I said in the game threads last week and will repeat again, I believe Philly to be a bit of a fraud. I made the comparison to the 2015 Panthers and I'll stick with that. They've had an easy road. Their only quality win this whole year (against a healthy good team) was the Vikings, and they were an even bigger fraud. Besides that they beat the Giants three times and the Cowboys minus Dak. I just don't buy into it. That isn't to say they can't win this game, but they will be facing the best team they've faced all year.
If SF can force Hurts to win within the pocket/limit his running threat (which i think they can), their offense will struggle mightily. Not to say they don't have weapons, but they will have a hard time. So when it comes to the Philly O vs the SF D. I see this being a huge issue, not only cause they will be facing a great D, but they may have to play a game they haven't played all year to score. Outside of a few big broken plays I don't see them sustaining many drives.
On the side side, SF won't have a cake walk. For all I'm talking down Philly, their D is good. Not as good but good. And while Purdy has done very well so far, a rookie QB in this spot is a hard sell. At some point I keep waiting for the wheels for fall off. And I could absolutely see that happening. He has what? 7 or 8 starts total in his career? If he wins he'd be the youngest winner of all time. He had been very good in these playoffs so far, and I can't imagine him making it through the next 2 games as clean as the last two. The idea of being able to protect a QB and win without one isn't impossible in the playoffs, but it is very very very hard in today's NFL. They will need Purdy to make some big plays vs a tough defense this, and if they win next week. Frankly I don't see them winning the super bowl with him at the helm. But maybe he is the real deal and t his 7th round pick 262 pick rookie will shock me and the world. Sometimes Cinderella stories come true in the NFL as we all know. Luckily for Purdy he has some truly sensational players on offense to make things easier for him. All due respect to AJ Brown, Smith, Sanders and Goedert, but McCaffrey, Kittle and Deebo are ALL a different kind of special. Though Deebo depends on health. I just feel like SF be more explosive without having to rely on broken plays. Personally I see the game as SF's to lose, but it all depends on if Purdy can hang on, which is no sure thing against this very good D. SF 19 Philly 13
Cinci @ KC
Cinci has done an amazing job avoid a slump year, which is very rare to avoid after making it to a super bowl. This team looks hungry and they have the talent to go head to head with anyone. But KC is a tall order. I will make 2 score predictions this game based entirely on Mahomes health.
Cinci has a slightly better defense than KC, but I don't think it matters much (I know they are ranked much higher but in PPG and YPG they are nearly the same). There are only 2 kinds of defense that matters to KC and those are REALLY good ones and REALLY bad ones. Against the really good they struggle but still score, against the bad they are limited only by their mistakes. Against the others they still usually score enough, But Cincy has been that rare so-so D to give them SOME issues. KC which use to have an air of offensive invisibility has finally come back down to earth a bit, and frankly they haven't matched their hype from that hype from the 2018 season for a while, they they have been amazing consistent, they still are, but not the way they use to be. They had 5 games this year of scoring 24 points or less. Something which has been very rare when they've been healthy. Which they were all year in all the key offensive spots. Nope, this is the talent drain, and it has started to show signs of taking a toll. Which is an odd thing to say about the #1 offense in the NFL. But some offenses are special and some aren't. Some years there are multiple special offenses and some years none. This year there were none. Just a few very good ones. And this week it will come down to which offense can fight through the resistance, and which play makers can break the game open, as well how healthy Mahomes is.
IMO the Bengals have the better offensive cast outside of their QB when both are healthy, and have been very battled tested. They face the only 2 truly good Ds in the AFC and come out on top. To me that is huge in a game which is likely to be about offensive production. It's hard to imagine them not being ready to play against the resistance KC is poised to show. Overall it will be a game of offensive keep away with long drives and who can force a few mistakes. While I think both teams should be able to score, they tend not to do it at much as you'd think.
Personally I don't like the fact The Bengals have beaten KC 3 times in a row. I believe in the 'due factor' and if Mahomes is good to go, I think he breaks through, and if he does he has a very good chance to win ring 2 as I think the AFC has the edge this year due to Philly being a bit of a fraud the SF QB situation. So if Mahomes looks good... KC 29 Cinci 27 but if the injury does effect him... I think KC will stall against a team they can't afford to give extra offensive chances too. Cinci 33 KC 24. Personally I think the injury is being slightly overblown. So I have to side with prediction one. But Mahomes looks gimpy WHILE playing (not this after play crap which i think players play up sometimes) then I'll quickly change my tune.
On the defensive side of the ball KC's D is one of just a number of serviceable Ds.
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