2019 Draft - where do you even start?

[scott99]

Trade first round to detroit for 2(7), 3(17), 4(7)

Round 2 Pick 7 (DET): Jones, DreMont, DT, Ohio State
Round 2 Pick 26: Okwuegbunam, Albert, TE, Missouri
Round 2 Pick 27: Thorson, Clayton, QB, Northwestern
Round 3 Pick 7: Edwards, TJ, ILB, Wisconsin
Round 3 Pick 17 (DET): McGary, Kaleb, OT, Washington
Round 4 Pick 7 (DET): Morgan Jr, Stanley, WR, Nebraska
Round 4 Pick 26 : Breeland, Jake, TE, Oregon
Round 7 Pick 18: Green, Gerri, OLB, Mississippi State

Geez, I'd be THRILLED with this draft, Therefore, it has no chance in hell of happening.

 

[maineman209]

Seems like a solid strategy until it comes time when the pats are on the board and each time they have a position other than DT highest rated.

BB drafted a DT with his first pick in 2015 and everybody hates him.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Poor recent drafts ...

The jury is still out on 2018, IMHO, since 6 of the 9 prospects (with no previous injury history) ended up on IR. Kind of ironic that the one guy who did have an injury history is the one who's still playing). JC Jackson was a UDFA.

2017 - Made only four picks, and traded the rest for players. Of the four, Rivers (3rd round) lost his rookie season to injury and hasn't panned out this year. Garcia (3rd round) succumbed to a previously undiagnosed serious illness (bad luck). Wise (#131) has been a solid rotational DE. McDermott (#211) was claimed off waivers during cutdowns. Adam Butler was a UDFA. Langi was a UDFA (auto accident - who knew THAT was going to happen?).

2016 - Thuney, Roberts, Karras. Had a good rookie year out of Mitchell, and a decent rookie year out of Valentine. Those two, plus Cy Jones, lost their sophomore seasons to injury and never bounced back. Brissett was a backup QB for four games before getting injured. Jon Jones was a UDFA.

2015 - Brown, Flowers, Mason, Cardona. Stork was the starting Center for a year. Richards and Grissom were high-end special-teamers for three seasons. Derby (6th) was flipped to Denver after a year for a future 5th. David Andrews was a UDFA. Brandon King was a UDFA.

2014 - Garoppolo, White. Cam Fleming was a utility/reserve OL for four seasons. Malcolm Butler was a UDFA.

2013 - Collins, Logan Ryan, Harmon. Ryan Allen was a UDFA. Josh Kline was a UDFA.

2012 - Jones, Hightower, Ebner. Wilson was a high-end special-teamer for four seasons (and went on to greater success in DET, before getting injured). Dennard was a decent CB for one season. Bolden was a UDFA.

2011 - Solder, Vereen, Ridley, Cannon. Mallett was the backup QB for a bit. Lee Smith was claimed off waivers during cutdowns. Danny Aiken was a UDFA.

My mindset is basically that you can evaluate the quality and depth of a team first and foremost by looking at its last four drafts, because those are the guys still under their rookie contracts. So looking at the guys who are under rookie contracts right now, we've got a couple really good players from 2015, one of whom has already been extended (Mason) and one who's hitting UFA (Flowers). Over the last 3 years, OTOH, it's too early to make broad declarations, but what we can say is that to date, and in this football season, the production from these draft classes has hurt the team's depth more than helped it.

The Pats won SB49 in large part because they got huge contributions from the guys on their rookie contracts (the 2011-2014 draft classes, which you highlighted in your post). Less so for the 2016 team, which leaned a little more on FA talent, but still had a broad base of rookie-contract talent that allowed them to win largely on the strength of depth, especially with the emergence of Butler and White as core players on their respective units.

I'm not going to declare the 2016-2018 drafts busts because it's too early to make that kind of evaluation. What I will say is that the 2018 Patriots are suffering how little production they've received from their rookie contracts.

 

[BradyFTW!]

BB drafted a DT with his first pick in 2015 and everybody hates him.

Who, ironically, was pretty much the consensus BPA where he was picked. It's hard to say if the Pats were drafting for BPA or need with that pick, because there was a compelling case to be made that he was regarded as both at the time.

 

[BelizePats]

Booby Grier? Did someone just post that the Pats should bring back Booby Grier? The same Booby Grier that WHIFFED on 29 of 31 draft picks after Bedsore's buddies, Rucci and lane signed thsoe ridiculous contracts?

Don't get me started on Booby...it'll be a bloodbath

This. I get angry just hearing the name Bobby Grier. The worst GM in the history of our franchise and single handedly responsible for putting us into the wastelands of franchise irrelevance for half a decade. Anyone who mentions Grier in a positive light simply has no idea what they are talking about. The guy pretty much killed us. **** Bobby Grier!

 

[borg]

Hypothetical time.....don't get too twitchy on these topics:

Let's say all the gimpy aging TB12 clients retire after a rough showing in the Wild Card round (remember.....hypothetical )
And let's also say that the Kraft family is on board with a rebuild strategy that will require a lost season or two.
To expedidite the rebuilding process, let's then say NE decides to dangle some assets in the trade market prior to the 2019 draft.
Which NEP players still under contract could fetch a #1 (or more) this offseason?
Gilmore
Cannon ?
Is the cupboard that bare hence the rebuild?

Next hypothetical.....
How important is BB's legacy to him in term's of game's won / winning % ?
In my hypothetical rebuild, I'm generously handing the NEP 4 wins in year 1 despite no franchise QB + no seasoned playmakers. And because Blake Bortles shows no sign of improvement , I'm assuming NE remains a 4-8 win team going forward, especially given the young roster the team is newly assembling.
So......does BB see this out or does he Phil Jackson it and jump when the stars exit the stage?

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

BB drafted a DT with his first pick in 2015 and everybody hates him.

Hahaha. Could be because the combo of brown/Easley picks fell well short of the Seymour,warren, and wilfork picks a decade earlier.

 

[IllegalContact]

BB drafted a DT with his first pick in 2015 and everybody hates him.

I don't .... he's done OK......doesn't even come close to a bad pick when put into the context of all the picks since 2015

 

[PatsFan2]

Hahaha. Could be because the combo of brown/Easley picks fell well short of the Seymour,warren, and wilfork picks a decade earlier.

And the Majority here hated the Easley pick at the time undersized DT who didn't fit the BB Scheme. Easley was not the kind of DT we are known to Draft.

 

[maineman209]

Hahaha. Could be because the combo of brown/Easley picks fell well short of the Seymour,warren, and wilfork picks a decade earlier.

Completely different types of players for completely different defensive fronts.

 

[maineman209]

What I will say is that the 2018 Patriots are suffering how little production they've received from their rookie contracts.

That's a more reasonable way to put it. But, is that purely a fault of the drafting? Or does an extremely unfortunate run of injuries factor into it?

In 2017, the Pats were missing Rivers (ACL) and Garcia (illness), plus the sophomore years of Mitchell (knee rolled up on by O'Shnuggipisser), Valentine (knee) and Jones (ACL). Plus, Edelman's ACL. Plus Nink's last minute retirement (plus Branch's semi-retirement). All of which basically happened in Camp. And then, promising UDFA LB Langi got into a car wreck. So, that's 5 draftees (probably now 6, including Rivers) whose development arc was blown up by injuries.

The point being that the 2017 roster, including the 2016 and 2017 draftees, looked pretty decent in mid-July. And, a month later, it looked like crap.

BTW, the Pats current starting center also came out of the 2015 draft class, so the entire starting IOL (and a primary backup) for the past two years came out of the 2015 & 2016 draft classes. I'm not sure how one measures the "production" for that.

 

[maineman209]

Who, ironically, was pretty much the consensus BPA where he was picked. It's hard to say if the Pats were drafting for BPA or need with that pick, because there was a compelling case to be made that he was regarded as both at the time.

And he's fit the role of "4-3 undertackle" quite well. Unfortunately for Brown, an undertackle's "success" is fairly dependent on the quality of the nose tackle he's paired with, and the Pats' NT position players the past two seasons have not been of particularly high quality. Brown turns 25 in February.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I believe that the "best way" to build a long term winner is with a combination of the draft (including UDFA), free agency and trades. It seems to me that this is the way that BB has approached things since he's been with the Pats, but what do I know?

Isn't that literally the only way to build any team? Lol

 

[mgteich]

My gut says that Belichick takes chances on injured and sick players much more than GM's of other teams. Some time that works out (e.g. Gronk, Cannon) and many times it doesn't.
This strategy does not need to work more often than not. It simply needs to produce the best long-term results, as part of a GM's total strategy.

That's a more reasonable way to put it. But, is that purely a fault of the drafting? Or does an extremely unfortunate run of injuries factor into it?

In 2017, the Pats were missing Rivers (ACL) and Garcia (illness), plus the sophomore years of Mitchell (knee rolled up on by O'Shnuggipisser), Valentine (knee) and Jones (ACL). Plus, Edelman's ACL. Plus Nink's last minute retirement (plus Branch's semi-retirement). All of which basically happened in Camp. And then, promising UDFA LB Langi got into a car wreck. So, that's 5 draftees (probably now 6, including Rivers) whose development arc was blown up by injuries.

The point being that the 2017 roster, including the 2016 and 2017 draftees, looked pretty decent in mid-July. And, a month later, it looked like crap.

BTW, the Pats current starting center also came out of the 2015 draft class, so the entire starting IOL (and a primary backup) for the past two years came out of the 2015 & 2016 draft classes. I'm not sure how one measures the "production" for that.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

DL, LB and QB in the first 4 rounds.

Why would anyone want to draft a WR? The Pats can't draft WRs and even by some miracle they got a good one it's unlikely they would be productive enough as a rookie to be a significant factor, i would rather fix that in free agency.

 

[maineman209]

DL, LB and QB in the first 4 rounds.

Why would anyone want to draft a WR? The Pats can't draft WRs and even by some miracle they got a good one it's unlikely they would be productive enough as a rookie to be a significant factor, i would rather fix that in free agency.

2019 FA WRs:

2018 NFL Free Agents and Free Agency Contracts

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

If only we had a dedicated forum for discussion the draft. Maybe we should suggest it to Ian.

DT / DE seems like a no brainer.
TE is necessary as well.
WR.
Safeties are getting up there in age.
LB could use an infusion as well.

@BaconGrundleCandy does an unbelievable job with prospect breakdowns and interviews. He has a podcast, Twitter, and blog, etc. Highly recommend following him.

It would obviously be a great story here in NE. On the positive he runs routes inside, outside, deep short, screen....he's also a strong runner after the catch. On the negative he doesn't seem to have elite speed or quickness and you need one of those unless you're bordering on TE size.

Not related

 

[supafly]

I’m thinking that they should overdraft a player in the secondary by a couple/few rounds, then trade the rest of the picks into next year’s draft.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

2019 FA WRs:

2018 NFL Free Agents and Free Agency Contracts

Yuck. The only ones I may be interested in (not breaking the bank for) are interior guys like enunwa, Beasley and Humphries.

 

[supafly]

Which NEP players still under contract could fetch a #1 (or more) this offseason?
Gilmore
Cannon ?

Dude, did you just include Cannon with the only player (singular) on the team who could fetch a first round pick?

(rubs eyes)

Marcus Cannon?