...and the Pyper will lead us to reason... Draft Strategy and Mock Draft 2.0

[PYPER]

WE MUST TRADE DOWN!!! This draft is particularly deep in the 2nd round. There are a lot of high end starters in this draft. The Pats have a lot of holes to fill. We are a bad football team but there is an opportunity in this draft to become legitimate SB contenders. To go from worst to first, a team needs to win free agency and win the draft. The way to win this draft is to trade down multiple times. Our first pick needs to be LT but not at #4. If we don't fix the OT issues, it will torpedo our season.

Trading down allows us to select as many as five players in the first two rounds and 7 or 8 of the top 100 picks. This is how you build a roster.

I just completed what might be the greatest mock draft in NFL history. The Pro Football Hall of Fame contacted me about putting it on display.

When I do mock drafts, I have certain rules that I follow. I never initiate any trades. I hate when others trade all their future picks to move up. Totally unrealistic. The only trades I accept are ones that are offered to me.

Anyhow, here it is...

PFN's free NFL Mock Draft Simulator with trades

Dive into PFN's free NFL Mock Draft Simulator with user-sim, sim-user, and sim-to-sim trades, and be the GM of your favorite NFL team(s) ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft.

www.profootballnetwork.com

Goal: To draft LT Josh Simmons with my first pick and load up on 2nd rounders while doing so.

TRADES:
Pick #4: Traded down to Bears for Pick 10 and Pick 41
Pick #10: Traded down to Broncos for Pick 20, Pick 51, and Pick 122
Pick #20: Traded down to Texans for Pick 25 and Pick 58
Pick #77: Traded down to Seahawks for Pick 82 and Pick 137

Note: Trading down from #20 to #25 was an unnecessary risk that worked out for me here but in real life I would be more conservative. I think I would pull trigger on Simmons somewhere in the 14-18 range. I don't want to risk losing him.

Picks:
25. OT Josh Simmons - Ohio State

Josh Simmons Offensive Tackle Ohio State | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 87.9 Rank: #4 Forty: 5.15 Simmons isn't just a good athlete who can move in space - he's a tone-setter who brings legitimate power and finishing ability to pair with his high-end mo...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

I believe Josh Simmons may be the best LT in this draft. The downside is that he will need to start the season on PUP due to his injury. Therefore, we need multiple options. My strategy brings multiple options.

38. DT Kenneth Grant - Michigan

Kenneth Grant Defensive Tackle Michigan | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 87.6 Rank: #7 Forty: 5.11 Grant's going to wreck shop in the right system. The film shows a defender who already dominates one-on-one blocks and has the raw tools to develop into a ...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

For some reason he's been falling to #38 in just about all of my mocks. I'm fearful that Barmore may have more blood clot complications and Grant provides us with a Stud to put next to Milton Williams.

41. WR Jaylin Noel -

Jaylin Noel Wide Receiver Iowa State | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 85.8 Rank: #7 Forty: 4.39 Noel has "dangerous weapon" written all over him as a vertical slot receiver with deep-ball tracking ability that jumps off the film. The way he stresses d...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

Speed, quickness, the lowest drop rate pct in the draft, and reportedly the best route runner in the draft. Thats my kind of receiver.

51. CB Trey Amos - Ole Miss

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Trey-Amos-CB-Louisiana

There are not a whole lot of CB's in this draft that I like but Amos is one of the good ones.

58. OT Josh Conerly Jr - Oregon

Josh Conerly Jr. Offensive Tackle Oregon | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 87.1 Rank: #6 Forty: 5.05 Put on the Washington tape and you'll see everything you need to know about Conerly's NFL readiness. Watch him mirror that explosive edge rusher play after...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

I've never seen him drop this far in my other mocks but thats probably b/c I'm usually the one drafting him. Personally, I think he goes in the first round. I was targeting Ozzy Trapilo here but was excited to see Conerly still available.

69. WR Jayden Higgins - Iowa State

Jayden Higgins Wide Receiver Iowa State | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 85.9 Rank: #5 Forty: 4.47 Higgins is a plug-and-play receiver whose game tape absolutely pops. While his forty might raise eyebrows, the film shows a savvy route runner who consiste...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

A faster, harder working version of T Mac? 6'4" with 4.4 speed

82. RB Cameron Skattebo - Arizona State

Cam Skattebo Running Back Arizona State | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 84.5 Rank: #7 Forty: 4.65 Every few years, a back emerges from the depths of college football to force NFL evaluators to throw their traditional metrics out the window. Skattebo ...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

106. Edge Kyle Kennard - Georgia Tech

Kyle Kennard Defensive End - EDGE South Carolina | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 85.1 Rank: #22 Forty: 4.73 I see a player who can step in and contribute immediately as a situational pass rusher while developing into a more complete edge defender. His explosive g...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

122. Edge Jack Sawyer - Ohio State

Jack Sawyer Defensive End - EDGE Ohio State | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 85.9 Rank: #20 Forty: 4.60 Sawyer projects as an immediate contributor in base defensive packages with the potential to develop into an every-down player. His power game and run defe...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

137. OT Anthony Belton -NC ST

Anthony Belton Offensive Tackle NC State | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 83.5 Rank: #19 Forty: 5.26 Anthony Belton brings a tantalizing combination of massive size and surprising pass protection skill that smart offensive line coaches will be eager to dev...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

All the extra picks lets us draft 3 OT's and completely revamp the oline. Now our oline can become the strength of the team. Imagine that.

144. RB Brashard Smith - SMU

Brashard Smith Running Back SMU | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 82.9 Rank: #11 Forty: 4.39 The burst, acceleration, and natural pass-catching traits show Day 2 potential in a spread-based attack. Inside zone and duo concepts maximize his one-cut ...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

This is one of my favorite Day 3 picks. Smith could emerge as an amazing weapon out of the backfield for Maye. He's a converted WR who runs routes and catches the ball like a WR and he has 4.39 speed. Imagine Buffalo's LB's trying to cover him out of the backfield.

171. TE Mitchell Evans - Notre Dame

Mitchell Evans Tight End Notre Dame | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 82.1 Rank: #8 Forty: 4.74 TE2 with starter upside in heavy personnel packages, particularly for teams that prioritize multiple tight end sets and a power running game. Think of Evan...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

220. DE Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins - Georgia

Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins Defensive Line - EDGE Georgia | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 79.9 Rank: #45 Forty: 4.86 The gap between Ingram-Dawkins' run defense and pass rushing ability tells the story of a player with half-developed tools. When asked to anchor, extend,...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

238. NT Nazir Stackhouse - Georgia

Nazir Stackhouse Defensive Line Georgia | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 79.0 Rank: #47 Forty: 5.15 Stackhouse brings immediate value in the run game where his anchor strength and gap discipline shine brightest. His ability to hold ground against double t...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

 

[jboston19]

It’s an interesting exercise. I think if I’m trading down from 4th overall to the late 1st, I’d want the return to be more than 3 mid round seconds and a fourth rounder.

I am fans of a lot of the players you chose, though. I don’t know if grant will be there that late but he’d be a huge help to the D.

 

[manxman2601]

Now all you have to do is find enough GMs who don’t see the same value in the 2nd round that you do and are therefore willing to trade up.

I appreciate the effort and like your picks however.

 

[bakes781]

 

[Water Boy]

4 teams willing to sacrafice 2nd and 3rd round picks to move up in the first round in a deep draft devoid of blue chip talent?

 

[PatsFan2]

@PYPER I think one Trade is good enough we have Two Thirds already: all we need is another Second. I have Never seen a NFL Team do that in the First Round: yeah and i've been watching the Draft for quite some time.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Scenarios like this always look good on paper but in reality I doubt anyone ever has hit on all of the picks like this. As much as you can love the draft board, reality is a ton of those guys will bust. And you can love these specific players but who is to say that each of them don't get taken 5 picks ahead of where you have them? You can't plan a draft around who you want to take 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100 picks in. Too much variance.

I'm not dismissing the idea. Part of the logic of trading down though is that the draft is a crapshoot so you just want to take more cracks at it. Trading down with the idea that you're going to hit on all the picks is kind of a fool's errand, IMO. Every draft board is different, but in general if you're trading back I think it should be with the logic that you know you won't hit on all of it but you just don't feel strongly enough about anyone where you're picking that you'd rather take multiple cracks at it, albeit in lower draft slots.

 

[stinkypete]

Fun draft simulator. I traded down about 6 times andf picked up Tyler Warren, Josh Connerly, TreVeyon Henderson, Tate Ratledge and Austin Gillotte.

Then I closed the browser window because the results to so incredibly unrealistic.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

It all depends on what the Patriots' grades are for these OT's. The mocks have it as Campbell & Membou as top 10 (grade A-), Banks as a 12-15 (B+), Simmons as a 17-23 (B), Conerly and Ersery as 25-35(B-). Who knows what we have for grades and expected slots? If we have them all as B's, then we'll trade way back. If we think say Membou is an A and the only A, then we're not moving at all.

 

[Brotherblues]

Lotta steals and value picks. I personally avoid going for "steals" in these simulators as it feels like abusing a clunky AI.

That way, I end up with mocks that feel more like real possibilities than dream scenarios. Like this:

 

[Mark Morse]

The big problem with these Draft Simulators is that trading is too easy. As long as you meet the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Chart in compensation, the trades usually go through. In reality you have to find a trade partner, another team that is interested in trading up or down. Jason Licht the GM in Tampa Bay and former Patriots College Scout said that he doesn't expect many trades in the 1st round because teams are not willing to give up draft capital to move up.

Hence the danger to the Patriots is not selecting an OT at #4 and failing to get back into the 1st round to select one of the other top Tackles. There is one team, the Minnesota Vikings at #24 that may be willing to trade. Minnesota has just 4 selections in draft (1, 3, 5 and 6).

As I said in my Draft Scenarios article, I would love to trade down with New Orleans and grab another 2nd Rd pick, then trade back into the 1st with MIN and grab an OT using our 2nd #38 and 3rd #77.

 

[PYPER]

Obviously it takes two to tango. If no teams want to move up, no trade downs happen. Having said that, I expect we'll see just as many trades this year as we do in most typical years. We'll all find out soon enough...