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Massive oversight. My god.Jackson???
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After the draft, I believe the defense will be better than last year.
Pennel should be an upgrade over Brown.
Bennett has always been the better player to Flowers and I think he could give the Pats one more productive year to have us forget about Flowers. Flowers on the other hand, like most ex Pats, will end up in obscurity (but with a lot of money).
I see JC Jackson improving from last year.
Dawson should have a fire lit under him with Williams being drafted. Should be a good competition.
Winovich should be another disrupter on the D-line and he plays violent from the highlights I’ve seen. I don’t see him going down the path of Jake Bequette or even Shawn (I skipped leg day) Crable.
And it’s put up or shut up time for Derek Rivers as Winovich/Cowart or coming to take his job. Anything from him would be a bonus.
Bentley and Sam will be added to the rotation of LB’s which will allow Van Noy and Hightower some breathers during games.
Nice analysis. I agree with almost all of your individual projections but I dont think the results are additive because several of the 'slight downgrades' are due to age so the likelihood of those players under performing in 2019 due to injury is much higher than the younger players on the roster.Starters Comparison
Pos - 2018 - 2019 - Verdict
DE - Wise - Wise - Slight upgrade, because of experience
DT - Guy - Guy - No change, added experience countered by more mileage on the tires
DT - M.Brown - Pennel - Slight upgrade, as Brown was a bit of a disappointment
DE - Flowers - Bennett - Slight downgrade, though it's very close
LB - Hightower - Hightower - No change, assuming good health
LB - Van Noy - Van Noy - No change
LB - Roberts - Roberts - Slight upgrade, because of experience
CB - Gilmore - Gilmore - No change, all-pro player in his prime
S - Chung - Chung - Slight downgrade, as he's getting older
S - D.McCourty - D.McCourty - Slight downgrade, as he's getting older
CB - J.McCourty - J.McCourty - Slight downgrade, as he's getting older
Reserves
Pos - 2018 - 2019 - Verdict
DL - Butler - Butler - Slight upgrade, because of experience
DL - Grissom - Winovich - Major upgrade, on talent and motor
DL - Shelton - Parry - No change, hard to see one being better than the other
DL - Simon - Simon - No change
DL - Rivers - Rivers - Slight upgrade, because of experience
DL - Davis - Davis - Slight upgrade, because of experience
DL - Kamalu - Cowart - No idea
D - Grigsby - Calhoun - No idea
LB - King - King - No change
LB - Bentley (IR) - Bentley - Major upgrade, assuming good health
LB - Sam - Sam - Slight upgrade, assuming good health
CB - Rowe - Williams - Major upgrade, as Rowe just wasn't great and Williams can be
CB - Crossen - Crossen - Slight upgrade, because of experience
CB - J.Jones - J.Jones - Slight upgrade, because of experience
CB - Dawson (IR) - Dawson - Slight upgrade, assuming good health
S - Harmon - Harmon - Slight downgrade, as he's getting older
S - Melifonwu - Melifonwu - Slight upgrade, because of experience
You can see that basically I assume that if you're on the front end of the curve (i.e., before you reach your peak), you'll improve with experience, but if you're on the back end of the curve, you'll decline due to age and mileage. Someone like Guy is right at that point where the two probably counter each other. I assume that people like Bentley and Dawson will represent upgrades if only because they would be healthy, and a healthy Bentley is better than Bentley on IR. A few spots, I have no way of knowing or even really guessing.
Obviously I'm spitballing here, but I see:
3 major upgrades
11 minor upgrades
5 minor downgrades
0 major downgrades
8 no changes
2 no ideas
That to me would represent a pretty significant cumulative improvement from 2018 to 2019. Of course, who knows really, and injuries could play a big factor and such. But I think they have a chance to be very good on D, *especially* if Bennett still has enough in the tank and Winovich is the real deal.
Nice analysis. I agree with almost all of your individual projections but I dont think the results are additive because several of the 'slight downgrades' are due to age so the likelihood of those players under performing in 2019 due to injury is much higher than the younger players on the roster.
Take the secondary for example, three of the four starters will be 32 by game one. The likelihood that that unit makes it through the season without one or more players missing significant time is pretty slim so you have to assume a high likelihood that the reserves will be stepping up to fill in or possibly a scheme change to window dress the expected drop off in talent.
I agree with your conclusion and I think your analysis is about as good one can do at this point in the year but I also feel there is more risk this year due to age at some key positions.
Jackson???
I’m cautious here. Surprising rookies, particularly at corner, often take a step back in year 2.Gads. Yes obviously omitted by accident. He should be a bit of an upgrade over last year's Jackson. Great young CB. Good pick up.
Some drafts listed him as a DE. Either way, Rivers has Winovich competing for time.Small nitpick but Cowart is a DT and seems most physically similar to Malcom Brown, maybe lighter.
EDGE:
Bennett
Wise
Winovich
Simon
IDL:
Guy
Pennel
Butler
TBD
LB:
Hightower (also EDGE)
Van Noy (also EDGE)
Bentley
Roberts
Collins
CB:
Gilmore
Jackson
McCourty
Jones
Williams (also SS)
S:
McCourty
Chung
Harmon
This defense looks suspiciously similar to the defense that lost to the Lions in Detroit and the Dolphins in Miami last year. God help us all.
I’m cautious here. Surprising rookies, particularly at corner, often take a step back in year 2.