2017 . Trade Deadline . thread

[long distance]

That 10th overall could've been Deshaun Watson. Given how tepid the organization has been about Taylor, one would think they'd be a bit more critical over not taking a shot at a guy with all the makings of a franchise QB who was right there for the taking.

They didn't like him enough. Almost nobody did. Lombardi was one of the very very few people mentioning “franchise QB“ in the same sentence w Watson.

Hindsight is too easy. And there's long way to go before Watson is a franchise QB esp. now unfortunately. Plenty of move QBs shined in their first year in this league and quickly disappeared..

 

[mgteich]

As do you, but if this guy hasn't helped us win vs Donkeys & Faiders, then we'll have our answer.

I agree that we need more production for our #4 WR receiver. Our top three
receivers are out there over 90% of the reps (Cooks, Hogan and Gronkowski).
We need Dorsett to be out there more than 19% of the time, his average for the first half. Of course, we could rely more on Lewis, White and Burkhead.

I don't predict player stats for individual games. A lot the depends on game plan.

However, I will give you the average 1/2 year stats for previous receivers that were #4 for the year in yards and receptions.

Average for 8 game for #4 receivers over the past 5 years is 20 catches for 235 yards, or 2.5/29 per game. I expect that Dorsett will likely meet this low bar over the remaining half of the year, even with our several RB's who are targets before him.

 

[supafly]

Dorsett is a nice project piece for next year, but I find it doubtful that he’ll do anything worth a damn this season.

I was actually pretty surprised that they managed to get him the ball a few times in his early weeks, here. What happened to a few of those designed plays for him? If Hogan is still in a sling, then there’s probably a decent chance that he doesn’t make the 2 week trip a week from today.

 

[captain stone]

I agree that we need more production for our #4 WR receiver. Our top three
receivers are out there over 90% of the reps (Cooks, Hogan and Gronkowski).
We need Dorsett to be out there more than 19% of the time, his average for the first half. Of course, we could rely more on Lewis, White and Burkhead.

I don't predict player stats for individual games. A lot the depends on game plan.

However, I will give you the average 1/2 year stats for previous receivers that were #4 for the year in yards and receptions.

Average for 8 game for #4 receivers over the past 5 years is 20 catches for 235 yards, or 2.5/29 per game. I expect that Dorsett will likely meet this low bar over the remaining half of the year, even with our several RB's who are targets before him.

Dorsett is our #3 WR for the foreseeable future, so the bar is now naturally higher than it is for #4, but he's also too physically smaller to run many of Hogan's routes. Perhaps Hollister replaces Hogan's snaps, especially in 2- and 3-TE formations,
more than Dorsett does in 2- and 3-WR formations.

 

[supafly]

Dorsett is our #3 WR for the foreseeable future, so the bar is now naturally higher than it is for #4, but he's also too physically smaller to run many of Hogan's routes. Perhaps Hollister replaces Hogan's snaps, especially in 2- and 3-TE formations,
more than Dorsett does in 2- and 3-WR formations.

Dorsett has caught 1 ball since week two, when he surprised most of us by having a nice game (3 catches for 68 yards). I hope they can get back to having him run some plays that he’s comfortable with. The jet sweep and some variation of the screen pass would be nice to go with the out + up that he’s been targeted on. The crossers that Cooks sometimes runs would be another way to take advantage of his speed, but those take more trust and timing practice. Luckily, they’re on the bye week so they should be able to prepare him a bit for his extended role. As you said, I’m not expecting much, but a couple/few plays over the course of the 2 game road trip would be great.

We should be able to run the ball against one or even both of DEN/OAK, so that may help. As a matter of fact, it would probably make sense to try and avoid putting Brady in harm’s way against DEN’s secondary + pass rush, so I expect a bit of a run heavy gameplan.

 

[DarrylS]

Have thought the deficit of this offense this year is not spreading the ball around, not sure if it is the ineptitude of the WR's and TE's or if #12 does not have confidence in them..

Last win was somewhat better, but far short of the pass distribution we have become accustomed to.. Gronk said something about that as well, they are mugging him at the line of scrimmage.. which usually means that someone else might be open.

Dorsett, Allen and Hollister all getting paid.. try a little harder.

 

[long distance]

Have thought the deficit of this offense this year is not spreading the ball around, not sure if it is the ineptitude of the WR's and TE's or if #12 does not have confidence in them..

Last win was somewhat better, but far short of the pass distribution we have become accustomed to.. Gronk said something about that as well, they are mugging him at the line of scrimmage.. which usually means that someone else might be open.

Dorsett, Allen and Hollister all getting paid.. try a little harder.

Patriots are spreading the ball to 7.5 different receivers per game through 8 games. That's despite Burkhead being out most of the time and other inj. situations. Id guess this is towards the top of the league if not top.

Last year people complained he goes to Jules too much..

 

[mgteich]

Have thought the deficit of this offense this year is not spreading the ball around,

A another poster indicated, this simply isn't true.

Not counting the 3 you mentioned, Brady has used his 7 primary targets: 3 WR's, 3 RB's and 1 FB.

Much depends on game plan.

 

[Joker]

I like and agree with this ,MG. BTW, the number one QB in passing yards so far this season is?

 

[Pats1989]

TJ Ward was cut in early September; wonder if BB took a look.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I like and agree with this ,MG. BTW, the number one QB in passing yards so far this season is?

For god's sake Joker don't leave me in suspense. Who is the #1 QB in passing yards this year??

 

[Joker]

heh...here's a hint...it ain't Colin Kaepernik

 

[Clonamery]

heh...here's a hint...it ain't Colin Kaepernik

I can’t stand it...if it’s not Kaepernick, who is it? With a little luck, it will be someone obvious like Aaron Rodgers.

 

[Joker]

here's another hint...he likes holding goats

 

[maineman209]

Spreading the ball around - Brady's tgts by opponent:


OPP ... tgts ... att ... Comp% ... y/att ... run%
KCY ....... 8 ....... 36 ........ 44% ......... 7.4 ........ 49%
NOL ..... 10 ....... 39 ........ 77% ........ 11.5 ........ 44% (Amendola OUT)
HOU ...... 8 ....... 35 ........ 71% ........ 10.8 ........ 36%
CAR ...... 10 ...... 45 ......... 71% ......... 6.8 ........ 30%
TBY ........ 7 ...... 40 ......... 75% ......... 8.6 ........ 37% (Gronk OUT)
NYJ ........ 6 ...... 38 ......... 53% ......... 7.6 ........ 40%
ATL ........ 7 ...... 29 ......... 72% ......... 8.6 ........ 55% (Burkhead return)
LAC ........ 9 ...... 47 ......... 68% ......... 7.1 ........ 41%

A another poster indicated, this simply isn't true.

Not counting the 3 you mentioned, Brady has used his 7 primary targets: 3 WR's, 3 RB's and 1 FB.

Much depends on game plan.

You pretty much nailed it.

Other notes:
- Dwayne Allen hasn't seen a target since week-4 (CAR)
- Dorsett went 0 for 3 in the Jets game and hasn't seen a target since.
- Gillislee has yet to see a target (not that he's any great receiver, but I have to figure that Brady will catch some defense sleeping on Gillislee at some point).

Of course, the above are "official targets" and don't include plays that may have been wiped out by penalties.

Still, in addition to the game plan, the number of viable targets that Brady has available to throw to is a factor in how much he "spreads the ball around".

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

here's another hint...he likes holding goats

Goats?? Hmmmmm, I'm still stumped. Is it one of these guys?

 

[Clonamery]

here's another hint...he likes holding goats

Hmm, he owns a farm or a petting zoo. Or his (kids) are future great players. If you said “sheep” instead of goats I would have said Eli Manning.

 

[DarrylS]

A another poster indicated, this simply isn't true.

Not counting the 3 you mentioned, Brady has used his 7 primary targets: 3 WR's, 3 RB's and 1 FB.

Much depends on game plan.

Do not want to go on ad infinitum.. some stats to back up this contention.. IMO there are underused assets on this team.

Develin 5 targets and 3 catches
Lewis 10 targets and 10 catches
Gillislee 0 targets
White 53 targets and 43 catches
Burkhead 15 targets and 12 catches
Cooks and Hogan 54 targets and 33 catches
Amendola 42 targets and 31 receptions
Dorsett 8 targets and 4 receptions
Gronk 56 targets and 34 receptions
Hollister 6 targets and 3 receptions
Allen 8 targets and 0 receptions

 

[maineman209]

Do not want to go on ad infinitum.. some stats to back up this contention.. IMO there are underused assets on this team.

Develin 5 targets and 3 catches
Lewis 10 targets and 10 catches
Gillislee 0 targets
White 53 targets and 43 catches
Burkhead 15 targets and 12 catches
Cooks and Hogan 54 targets and 33 catches
Amendola 42 targets and 31 receptions
Dorsett 8 targets and 4 receptions
Gronk 56 targets and 34 receptions
Hollister 6 targets and 3 receptions
Allen 8 targets and 0 receptions

Lewis is the only one I can say has definitely been "underused". His 1.25 tgts/game is dramatically lower than the 7.1 tgts/game he saw through the first 7 games of 2015, and lower even than the 3.4 tgts/game he saw last season. I have to think that could change soon.

Burkhead has only been active for four games but has seen almost 4 tgts/game (and 3 catches) when he's been active - not that far behind Amendola in terms of tgts/game.

Develin's 5 tgts in 8 games is in line with the way he's been used his entire career with the Pats. Gillislee has been targeted only 18 times in his career - all of them dump-offs over the course of his 20 games active on the Bills (less than 1 tgt/game).

With the other three (bolded), the question for me is, are they viable targets who are "underused" or have they simply not been particularly viable targets so far for whatever individual reasons?

With the potential that Hogan is out for "a few games", I'd expected Dorsett to see more targets, almost regardless. Hollister and Allen, though? Even including Develin, that's 19 total targets and 6 total receptions - abysmal receiving production out of the TE position after Gronk. Sure, the RBs can compensate for some of that, but it seems to me that the offense would be improved if there was another guy who's a more viable receiving threat out of an inline position. He doesn't need to be Bennett level, just more viable than what the Pats have put out there so far.

Maybe if Hollister's blocking improves he'll see more snaps? He's currently under a 6-snap/game average compared to Allen's 24 snaps/game.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

here's another hint...he likes holding goats

Hint #3: He likes taking pics of Brazilian women in bikinis on sandy beaches!

@Joker your hint was accurate but not as pleasing to the eye. Obviously not in your 20s anymore ;-).