2017 Patriots Defense

[Oswlek]

What you're stating is that the Patriots offensive line playing poorly is to be celebrated

Celebrated? Who the hell said that?

Moreover, I'm not exactly sure why you tried to "ah hah!" me with the "preseason record" versus "preseason play" argument

It wasn't a "gotcha", I pointed out that you had specifically misrepresented my comment (ironically in an attempt to construct a "gotcha" of your own).

BTW, I scrolled through the thread again and I'm not seeing a link to a PS record study in any of your replies to me. Please include it in your response, if you choose to offer one. I suspect that any study that demonstrates a positive correlation will be reliant on rather large sample sizes and won't have much applicability when it comes to individual teams' 4 game samples.

For instance, the two worst BB/Brady teams are undoubtedly 2002 and 2009, both of which went 3-1. By contrast, 2004 and 2007 went 1-3 and 2-2, respectively.

You might say that I am cherry picking - and to some extent you'd be correct - but those four years account for 25÷ of the total sample! When that much of your data actually shows a negative correlation, any cumulative positive correlation is going to be too weak to be meaningful.

 

[luuked]

Yes, we have the same discussion each year. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't be concerned about the defense giving up more points through 3 games than any other team since Belichick came here.

Except that is an arbitrary meaningless stat.

We never played with this set of players against those specific opponents (with their current) ever before and never will again. What are you comparing ?

And if you just look at the teams of this year then how do you normalize for the opponent the Ravens had compared to who we had ? Arent the Chiefs better than the Bengals ? Or the Saints better than the Browns ?

Those stats that are being thrown around are just too simplistic to explain anything worth talking. If you want to talk about how we played various snaps or what went wrong against specific formations then just go into the rewind thread and you will see a good discussion about that. But talking about total yards or total points allowed is a simplistic waste of time because they dont mean much if anything.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Summary of Bedard:

With that out of the way, we have to ask two questions: Have the Patriots really been that bad? And will they continue to be?

Sort of. And no.
​

Don't agree with a lot here, but this is an interesting read from the Washington Post:

Analysis | The biggest problem with the Patriots’ defense may be Bill Belichick’s philosophy

 

[Oswlek]

For ****s and giggles, here are the preseason records and the corresponding seasons (and reg season wins).

4-0: 2003 (14)

3-1: 2001 (11), 2002 (9), 2009 (10), 2013 (12), 2016 (14)

2-2: 2005 (10), 2006 (12), 2007 (16), 2010 (14), 2011 (13), 2014 (12), 2015 (12)

1-3: 2004 (14), 2012 (12)

I'll be impressed if anyone can parse distinct correlations from that. Also, if going 1-3 is somehow meaningful, does that mean that NE would be more likely to succeed this year if NY had missed the FG in game four?

 

[SHOWTIME15]

The only team in recent memory that has given up 95 points in the first 3 games and won the lombardi is the 2007 NY Giants. Thus, it's certainly not impossible for a team that has given up this many points in the first 3 games to go on and win the super bowl.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Summary of Bedard:

With that out of the way, we have to ask two questions: Have the Patriots really been that bad? And will they continue to be?

Sort of. And no.
​

Don't agree with a lot here, but this is an interesting read from the Washington Post:

Analysis | The biggest problem with the Patriots’ defense may be Bill Belichick’s philosophy

Yeah I skimmed over the Post article. These were the same people that called for Tom Brady to be benched after the KC game a few years ago. They know very little about football. Bill will right the ship.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I think the biggest advantage that the pats have now is that every one is doubting them. When that happens, good things usually occur for NE.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

Celebrated? Who the hell said that?

I'm just took "rite of passage" with poor play to be taking them off the hook.

The link was embedded in the post. It looks at preseason records from 2010-14 for all teams and how that translated into playoff appearances. Here is the link:
The NFL preseason matters a little more than you think

[/QUOTE]I suspect that any study that demonstrates a positive correlation will be reliant on rather large sample sizes and won't have much applicability when it comes to individual teams' 4 game samples.[/QUOTE]

You are correct that it is for all teams. I'm not sure if we look at the Patriots success with such a small sample we have enough data to support or refute a correlation. With larger groups of teams, there is a slight correlation. I'm not sure that with the Patriots stats the past 15 years there is a way to prove that there isn't a correlation. I'll take a look. The 3-1 and 4-0 teams fared worse with playoff berths than 2-2 teams in USA Today's sample, so that fits with the Patriots data.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

For ****s and giggles, here are the preseason records and the corresponding seasons (and reg season wins).

4-0: 2003 (14)

3-1: 2001 (11), 2002 (9), 2009 (10), 2013 (12), 2016 (14)

2-2: 2005 (10), 2006 (12), 2007 (16), 2010 (14), 2011 (13), 2014 (12), 2015 (12)

1-3: 2004 (14), 2012 (12)

I'll be impressed if anyone can parse distinct correlations from that. Also, if going 1-3 is somehow meaningful, does that mean that NE would be more likely to succeed this year if NY had missed the FG in game four?

Here's a crack at it:

3+: 2000 (*), 2001 (<>), 2002 (*), 2003 (<>), 2009 (w), 2013 (c), 2016 (<>)

2-2: 2005 (d), 2006 (c), 2007 (s), 2010 (d), 2011 (s), 2014 (<>), 2015 (c)

0 or 1: 2004 (14<>), 2008 (*) 2012 (c)

* = non-playoff berth season
w = wild card loss = 1
d = divisional loss = 2
c = conference loss = 3
s = Super Bowl loss = 4
<> = Super Bowl win = 5

Here's an equation, which is up for debate, that gives weight to the Patriots making
the playoffs and, in particular, winning a Super Bowl. I'm assigning 5 points for
a Super Bowl victory, 4 points for a Super Bowl berth and loss, 3 points for a
conference championship loss, 2 points for a divisional loss, and 1 point for a
wild card loss.

2000 onward, Belichick Era (17 seasons for sample):

3+: 0+5+0+5+1+3+5 / 7 = 2.71
2: 2+3+4+2+4+5+3 / 7 = 3.29
1-: 5+0+3 / 3 = 2.66

This weighted model privileges playoff success rather than overall record. The Patriots fare best in the playoffs when their preseason record is 2-2. 3+ wins in the preseason and 0/1 win are far less likely to result in success according to this model. This chart matches the 2-2, 3+, 1- model proposed in the USA Today article (The NFL preseason matters a little more than you think). I think what we can take away from this is that teams that do okay in the preseason tend to get their starters some playing time but also aren't so desperate to establish a winning philosophy that they keep the starters in extra to go 3-1/4-0. The fact only 3 out of 17 Patriots clubs during the Belichick era had 1 win or less demonstrates that this year's team was a slight outlier. And the success of the 0/1 win group was the worst when it comes to playoff success. Also interesting: a 2-2 preseason Patriots squad under Belichick has always made the playoffs. While one game doesn't mean much on its own, let's just say the Patriots would have been playoff bound if the Giants had missed!

Long story short, I've got too much time on my hands and just wanted to see if my gut feeling held up to analysis. This formula can be tweaked more, but I think it gives a rough approximation of how preseason results can have a minor correlation to degrees of postseason success.

 

[Triumph]

Heres a number 32

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2017 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

NE has the worst defense in the NFL right now. If not for a terrible (#31) Saints defense and Bradys heroics last Sunday, you are staring at 0 - 3. I hope we start seeing signs of improvement yesterday. Hightower back and the new faces acclimating to the scheme will no doubt help.

Gilmore has been just OK IMO.

Super Bowl D-mise? Why Patriots are long shots

 

[Oswlek]

And the success of the 0/1 win group was the worst when it comes to playoff success.

I commend your effort, but 0-1 only leads to lower success when you add in Brady's lost season. If you remove 2008 (which you should, given such an important variable), then it grades out a a 4 in your system.

but I think it gives a rough approximation of how preseason results can have a minor correlation to degrees of postseason success.

I know you were just playing around but, fwiw, your exercise shows that records can have a varying relationship to playoff success, not that there is a positive correlation. To the contrary, your results indicate either no correlation or, if we restrict the data to only Brady years, a negative correlation.

Not to take a silly exercise too seriously (too late!), but I'm not fond of basing everything on playoff success, either. The sample is already stretched perilously thin.... and then it hinges upon a set with even worse sample size issues.

Your serve.

 

[Uptown]

2017 Patriots defense makes other quarterbacks look like Tom Brady nearly 80% of the time

 

[Mack Herron]

Reiss:

The Patriots have allowed 95 points through three games, which is the most they have allowed through three games since the 1994 season.

 

[slash83]

Still sucking, hopefully we see some sort of improvement against a bad offense this Sunday.

 

[luuked]

NE has the worst defense in the NFL right now. If not for a terrible (#31) Saints defense and Bradys heroics last Sunday, you are staring at 0 - 3. I hope we start seeing signs of improvement yesterday. Hightower back and the new faces acclimating to the scheme will no doubt help.

So allowing 13 points before garbage time against the Saints means we only won because of their terrible defense ?

 

[Tuck]

The Pats Defense didn't settle down until week 3 last year. With all the personnel changes and Hightower's injury its no wonder they've had trouble with communication so far. It may take the 2017 team a little longer to put it all together but hopefully we'll see it this week.

 

[moejr]

I'll be happy if we can get the D to middle of the pack

 

[farn]

I'll be happy if we can get the D to middle of the pack

There is an immature joke in here somewhere.

(But YES, if the defense is slightly above average, they'll win many games. Having said that : I've felt that what made this recent crew better in huge games is the ability to make a key play when it counted. I had so much more confidence in the 2014 & 2016 D vs the many teams that came between 2004 & 2014. So, I feel NE will win many games, but fear that if BB doesn't right the ship, it might be frustrating this winter.)

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

The only team in recent memory that has given up 95 points in the first 3 games and won the lombardi is the 2007 NY Giants. Thus, it's certainly not impossible for a team that has given up this many points in the first 3 games to go on and win the super bowl.

Well you would think the defense will get better. The secondary has to do a better job in coverage.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

There is an immature joke in here somewhere.

(But YES, if the defense is slightly above average, they'll win many games. Having said that : I've felt that what made this recent crew better in huge games is the ability to make a key play when it counted. I had so much more confidence in the 2014 & 2016 D vs the many teams that came between 2004 & 2014. So, I feel NE will win many games, but fear that if BB doesn't right the ship, it might be frustrating this winter.)

I am curious to see the 3rd down numbers through 3 games. It seems like they give up a lot of those first downs.