maineman209
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
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The Pats went into 2017 Camp with these LB:
Hightower
Van Noy
McClellin
Harris
Bates
Roberts
Langi
Freeny
Vereen
Ellis
Maybe could include Rivers here, since they Pats seemed to be trying him as an OLB, on occasion at least. But that's moot for this part, since he didn't make it out of Camp healthy.
I never thought this was a "strong" group, and I wasn't sure if they'd keep five or six. Beyond Hightower, this is how I evaluated them:
Likely Keepers
Van Noy
... quick study in 2016 with only a half season; solid player going into his first full season with the Pats
McClellin
... decent situational/rotational piece on the edge (status unclear with undisclosed injury)
Competing
Harris - veteran backup, 2-down rotational piece
Bates - very athletic, but raw 2016 P-squad guy with some ST chops
Roberts - 2nd-year player, but still raw; backup quality, virtually no ST contributions
Langi - high-investment UDFA, potential ST development prospect, probably wouldn't clear waivers
I thought they'd keep two of the above for five total - OR, if McClellin would be out for awhile, Harris plus two others. I thought they might keep Bates over Roberts, if McClellin could play. Langi was always kind of a wild card.
Likely Cuts
Freeny - veteran STer/emergency reserve
Vereen & Ellis - Camp fodder
And, just before cutdowns, on August 29th, they added Marquis Flowers via trade. I thought this was mostly a special teams move (like the Bademosi acquisition a couple days later during cutdowns), since both Ebner (shoulder) and Slater (hamstring) appeared unlikely to play in week-1. Still, trading for Flowers rather than merely keeping Bates or Freeny made it intriguing.
Anyway, McClellin technically ended up on the roster after final cutdowns, but that was only a temporary move to make him eligible for the IR-DtR option (same with Mitchell and Valentine). So, they kept six "LB":
Hightower
Van Noy
Harris
Roberts
Langi
Flowers
Flowers, of course, was promoted to a much more active role on defense at OLB after Hightower was sent to IR during the BYE Week (week-9).
Then, the Pats added LB/special teamer, and familiar face Trevor Reilly to the PS on October 12th (week-6), promoting him 12 days later (week-8) to replace Langi, who had been injured in a car wreck on October 14th. Reilly filled in with 57 D-snaps and 94 ST snaps (way more than Langi himself had contributed) over the course of six games active before being replaced by Harrison in week-17.
DE Eric Lee replaced DE Marsh just before Thanksgiving (week-12), and contributed 281 D-snaps (only 11 on ST, however) through the end of the regular season, about half of those in an OLB-ish role.
It should be noted that, although Reilly was re-signed to the PS right after week-17, he has apparently declined to sign a futures contract with the Pats (reportedly seeking more playing time on defense elsewhere).
=============
So, here's where the 2018 LB group stands at the moment:
Hightower (coming off IR - pectoral)
Van Noy
Harris (likely early cap cut)
McClellin (coming off IR - concussions ... possibly retires)
Roberts
Langi (coming off NFI)
Flowers - UFA
Harrison - UFA
Plus edge defenders Lee and Rivers (coming off IR - ACL) who might provide some OLB snaps in 2018.
I'm guessing that both Harris and McClellin are released before March 14th. I'm hoping that Flowers can be re-signed, but I'm guessing that the Pats will be competing with Matt Patricia for his future services. Assuming that Flowers IS re-signed, the LB group would look like this going into free agency:
Hightower
Van Noy*
Roberts*
Langi
Flowers
(* the only two LBs who are currently under contract AND healthy)
I think it's likely that this list increases to at least 10-12 guys by post-draft Rookie Camp in May. I think it's likely that Harrison is re-signed (cheaply) around that time, so I'd consider him to be one of that 10-12.
Depending on how the coaches see their possible future roles with the team, Lee and/or Rivers may or may not be considered as part of that 10-12 ... or, instead, part of whatever the off-season head count may be at DE.
In any case, it seems to me that there's likely to be 3-5 spots open for LB candidates on the 90-man roster heading into Free agency and the draft.
My guess is that there may be one (affordable) signing of a relatively accomplished (and not ancient) UFA (in addition to Harrison). Failing in that, the Pats could make another draft-day trade for one. Of course, over the next three weeks, we could see another dozen or two LBs with NFL experience (not all of them "elderly") hit the market as cap cuts. There might be something there, but most will likely be Freeny/Reilly types.
[Wild-*** possibility: If the Eagles manage to re-sign Bradham somehow (they need to do a crap-tonne of cap maneuvering), the Pats trade their 4th-round comp pick (#136) for Jordan Hicks (he's coming off a torn Achilles) and the Eagles 5th-rounder (#147). Hicks is under contract for 2018 at $1.9M, and is still very young.]
I'd also guess that the Pats spend one of their first four picks on an LB (currently #31, #43, #63, #95), and likely backfill the remaining open LB spots with UDFA.
Above and beyond how fans may evaluate various LBs who are currently in-house or elsewhere, it seems virtually certain that the process of building the Pats 2018 LB group will be the most interesting and entertaining part of this off-season, especially given current cap-space constraints.
Unless, of course, Gronk retires.
Hightower
Van Noy
McClellin
Harris
Bates
Roberts
Langi
Freeny
Vereen
Ellis
Maybe could include Rivers here, since they Pats seemed to be trying him as an OLB, on occasion at least. But that's moot for this part, since he didn't make it out of Camp healthy.
I never thought this was a "strong" group, and I wasn't sure if they'd keep five or six. Beyond Hightower, this is how I evaluated them:
Likely Keepers
Van Noy
... quick study in 2016 with only a half season; solid player going into his first full season with the Pats
McClellin
... decent situational/rotational piece on the edge (status unclear with undisclosed injury)
Competing
Harris - veteran backup, 2-down rotational piece
Bates - very athletic, but raw 2016 P-squad guy with some ST chops
Roberts - 2nd-year player, but still raw; backup quality, virtually no ST contributions
Langi - high-investment UDFA, potential ST development prospect, probably wouldn't clear waivers
I thought they'd keep two of the above for five total - OR, if McClellin would be out for awhile, Harris plus two others. I thought they might keep Bates over Roberts, if McClellin could play. Langi was always kind of a wild card.
Likely Cuts
Freeny - veteran STer/emergency reserve
Vereen & Ellis - Camp fodder
And, just before cutdowns, on August 29th, they added Marquis Flowers via trade. I thought this was mostly a special teams move (like the Bademosi acquisition a couple days later during cutdowns), since both Ebner (shoulder) and Slater (hamstring) appeared unlikely to play in week-1. Still, trading for Flowers rather than merely keeping Bates or Freeny made it intriguing.
Anyway, McClellin technically ended up on the roster after final cutdowns, but that was only a temporary move to make him eligible for the IR-DtR option (same with Mitchell and Valentine). So, they kept six "LB":
Hightower
Van Noy
Harris
Roberts
Langi
Flowers
Flowers, of course, was promoted to a much more active role on defense at OLB after Hightower was sent to IR during the BYE Week (week-9).
Then, the Pats added LB/special teamer, and familiar face Trevor Reilly to the PS on October 12th (week-6), promoting him 12 days later (week-8) to replace Langi, who had been injured in a car wreck on October 14th. Reilly filled in with 57 D-snaps and 94 ST snaps (way more than Langi himself had contributed) over the course of six games active before being replaced by Harrison in week-17.
DE Eric Lee replaced DE Marsh just before Thanksgiving (week-12), and contributed 281 D-snaps (only 11 on ST, however) through the end of the regular season, about half of those in an OLB-ish role.
It should be noted that, although Reilly was re-signed to the PS right after week-17, he has apparently declined to sign a futures contract with the Pats (reportedly seeking more playing time on defense elsewhere).
=============
So, here's where the 2018 LB group stands at the moment:
Hightower (coming off IR - pectoral)
Van Noy
Harris (likely early cap cut)
McClellin (coming off IR - concussions ... possibly retires)
Roberts
Langi (coming off NFI)
Flowers - UFA
Harrison - UFA
Plus edge defenders Lee and Rivers (coming off IR - ACL) who might provide some OLB snaps in 2018.
I'm guessing that both Harris and McClellin are released before March 14th. I'm hoping that Flowers can be re-signed, but I'm guessing that the Pats will be competing with Matt Patricia for his future services. Assuming that Flowers IS re-signed, the LB group would look like this going into free agency:
Hightower
Van Noy*
Roberts*
Langi
Flowers
(* the only two LBs who are currently under contract AND healthy)
I think it's likely that this list increases to at least 10-12 guys by post-draft Rookie Camp in May. I think it's likely that Harrison is re-signed (cheaply) around that time, so I'd consider him to be one of that 10-12.
Depending on how the coaches see their possible future roles with the team, Lee and/or Rivers may or may not be considered as part of that 10-12 ... or, instead, part of whatever the off-season head count may be at DE.
In any case, it seems to me that there's likely to be 3-5 spots open for LB candidates on the 90-man roster heading into Free agency and the draft.
My guess is that there may be one (affordable) signing of a relatively accomplished (and not ancient) UFA (in addition to Harrison). Failing in that, the Pats could make another draft-day trade for one. Of course, over the next three weeks, we could see another dozen or two LBs with NFL experience (not all of them "elderly") hit the market as cap cuts. There might be something there, but most will likely be Freeny/Reilly types.
[Wild-*** possibility: If the Eagles manage to re-sign Bradham somehow (they need to do a crap-tonne of cap maneuvering), the Pats trade their 4th-round comp pick (#136) for Jordan Hicks (he's coming off a torn Achilles) and the Eagles 5th-rounder (#147). Hicks is under contract for 2018 at $1.9M, and is still very young.]
I'd also guess that the Pats spend one of their first four picks on an LB (currently #31, #43, #63, #95), and likely backfill the remaining open LB spots with UDFA.
Above and beyond how fans may evaluate various LBs who are currently in-house or elsewhere, it seems virtually certain that the process of building the Pats 2018 LB group will be the most interesting and entertaining part of this off-season, especially given current cap-space constraints.
Unless, of course, Gronk retires.