Patriots Pregame Thread Pre-Game thread - 2025 AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

jal said:

We have to treat this game like it's going to be a defensive battle and we are a defensive-oriented team. Take care of the ball, play field position, and we will have our best chance to win the thing. We cannot GIVE Denver's offense short fields - that's the only way they are going to score 20+. Our offense even playing conservatively should be able to manage 20 or more. There will be opportunities in the intermediate pass game and taking some shots on Riley Moss (DPI machine) down the field. But we have to protect the ball - deep shot interceptions are ok, fumbles and short throw interceptions (esp. to the outside) are not.

We cannot expect to be the 2007 Patriots or any of the second dynasty 2010's Pats - we do not have the offensive line or the QB that's skilled/experienced enough to avoid a run of turnovers against elite pass rushes. We can't play that way. We are fortunate to be facing some impaired offenses and our defense should have a major advantage again. Play into that.

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To be honest - Buffalo showed some weaknesses in this Denver defense. They had guys getting open quite frequently, and Buffalo hardly has a scary offense. Maye is similar to Allen, Williams is similar to Cooks, Diggs is better than Shakir, Henry is similar to Kincaid, Boutte is better than any other WR they have, etc. The Pats don't have an RB as good as Cook, but Stevenson and Henderson are still pretty solid and Buffalo was somewhat pass-happy anyway.

If I was Josh I'd be studying what Buffalo did because I think Joe Brady may have given us the blueprint. The key, of course, is just to not turn it over 4+ times like Allen.

Internet loves invoking Foles and Osweiler or even Matt Flynn (deep cut)

As if any of those Patriots' defensive players and coaches are still with this team...

Gonna go out on a limb and say that Vrabel and TW/Kuhr's defensive gameplans aren't as film dependent as BB's. Vrabel has also shown that he likes to have his defense dictate/pressure a ton more than we saw under BB and the various DCs. I could be wrong but I feel that BB was extremely dependent on breaking down film and he was incredibly good at it, obviously.

Still, point is, I don't think we're gonna get bit anywhere near the way we did. And our defense is the best defense in the playoffs, currently. I don't expect to see that change, I think our defense is going to be the highest functioning unit the next two games and it's the exact right time.

Ross12 said:

To be honest - Buffalo showed some weaknesses in this Denver defense. They had guys getting open quite frequently, and Buffalo hardly has a scary offense. Maye is similar to Allen, Williams is similar to Cooks, Diggs is better than Shakir, Henry is similar to Kincaid, Boutte is better than any other WR they have, etc. The Pats don't have an RB as good as Cook, but Stevenson and Henderson are still pretty solid and Buffalo was somewhat pass-happy anyway.

If I was Josh I'd be studying what Buffalo did because I think Joe Brady may have given us the blueprint. The key, of course, is just to not turn it over 4+ times like Allen.

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Josh is gonna help on offense AND defense. Nobody knows Stidham more than McDaniels. He knows his strengths and weaknesses.

fnordcircle said:

Internet loves invoking Foles and Osweiler or even Matt Flynn (deep cut)

As if any of those Patriots' defensive players and coaches are still with this team...

Gonna go out on a limb and say that Vrabel and TW/Kuhr's defensive gameplans aren't as film dependent as BB's. Vrabel has also shown that he likes to have his defense dictate/pressure a ton more than we saw under BB and the various DCs. I could be wrong but I feel that BB was extremely dependent on breaking down film and he was incredibly good at it, obviously.

Still, point is, I don't think we're gonna get bit anywhere near the way we did. And our defense is the best defense in the playoffs, currently. I don't expect to see that change, I think our defense is going to be the highest functioning unit the next two games and it's the exact right time.

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Never understood the Matt Flynn game. Was Bill that ****ing stubborn back then too? No adjustments.

I sure hope we can get some pressure on Stidham. Pass rush has been wanting. There were plays where Stroud had all day. Hoping this doesn't happen on Sunday.

denverpatsfan said:

Never understood the Matt Flynn game. Was Bill that ****ing stubborn back then too? No adjustments.

I sure hope we can get some pressure on Stidham. Pass rush has been wanting. There were plays where Stroud had all day. Hoping this doesn't happen on Sunday.

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I was extremely happy with our pass rush, but maybe I'm still just used to the zero pressure play the percentages, bend don't break **** that made watching defense such a chore for the latter like 60% or more of BB's reign.

Stiddy should wear hockey pants, cuz we're gonna put foot to dat ass!

Rob0729 said:

Is he a horrible talent evaluator or Belichick gave him nothing to work with to evaluate talent? I say the latter. Belichick had one of the smallest scouting department in the league in his final years. Belichick did not believe in analytics for talent evaluation. So the Pats had none of the tools that most other teams had to evaluate talent. In 2024, Mayo didn't even know what he wanted for talent. And he misused talent across the board. Belichick's grading system which was used to draft players drafted in the 2024 was based on fit in the system. Since Mayo had no system, it was impossible to grade.

And it has been documented that after Wolf was made GM, he started to build an analytics department. He has been working for the last year and a half to get the Patriots to a point that they are not miles behind everyone else in scouting tools. Belichick made Wolf scout blindfolded.

Also, Wolf brought in Highsmith to help implement the Packers' grading system for prospects and free agents that emphasized athleticism, explosiveness, and versatility. It is a whole new system than what Belichick used. But unfortunately, he was hired in February of 2024 long after most of the scouting for the 2024 draft prospects and free agents was already completed. You can't start over in February and try to find players that grade well on a completely different system.

And reports are Vrabel loves Wolf scouting and that they work well together selecting players for the team.

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Wolf is a terrible talent evaluator when left to his own devices. This was proven out last year by Wolf's failure to bring in talent (either in Free Agency or the Draft) that failed under Mayo and then went somewhere else and excelled. Wolf was made the GM in everything but name last year.

I find it ironic that you want to put all the blame on Mayo for "not having a system" but give little credit to Vrabel for having a system and being able to articulate it to Wolf. I also find it ironic that you think it's so hard to change up a spreadsheet or database in terms of providing grades on players. With a properly formed database, it shouldn't be very hard at all and it shouldn't take months for the scouting department to recalibrate in this day and age.

I think it's very telling that every single player signed during the 2025 Free Agency had direct ties to someone that Vrabel brought in. So, why is it inconceivable that Vrabel had the Coaching staff put together list of bottom of the roster players that they had 1st hand knowledge for Wolf to keep an eye out for? Especially when you look at the fact Woods Taylor and Munford all had direct ties? Do you think it's a coincidence that the Pats didn't claim Jakob Johnson off waivers at the end of Training Camp despite McDaniels having had Johnson as a player here and in Vegas? Or that they didn't claim Johnson off waivers when he was cut on December 9th?

Good talent evaluators find talent regardless of the Grading system being used.

Wolf doing his own thing = Failure
Wolf following instructions from Vrabel / Streicher = Looks like a winner..

denverpatsfan said:

Never understood the Matt Flynn game. Was Bill that ****ing stubborn back then too? No adjustments.

I sure hope we can get some pressure on Stidham. Pass rush has been wanting. There were plays where Stroud had all day. Hoping this doesn't happen on Sunday.

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We dont have a great pass rush and Denver has the best OL in the NFL.

So... stone the run. Dont allow them to run. Then play nickel and dime and force them to pass into coverage.

fnordcircle said:

I was extremely happy with our pass rush, but maybe I'm still just used to the zero pressure play the percentages, bend don't break **** that made watching defense such a chore for the latter like 60% or more of BB's reign.

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Funny, I'm the opposite. I like to see a defense slowly suffocate an offense. I'm a frequent complainer about the blitzes that end up in easy completions. It cost us the Raiders game and it really hasn't ever improved. Every time I see them possibly doing a zero blitz, I get a bad feeling

fnordcircle said:

Internet loves invoking Foles and Osweiler or even Matt Flynn (deep cut)

As if any of those Patriots' defensive players and coaches are still with this team...

Gonna go out on a limb and say that Vrabel and TW/Kuhr's defensive gameplans aren't as film dependent as BB's. Vrabel has also shown that he likes to have his defense dictate/pressure a ton more than we saw under BB and the various DCs. I could be wrong but I feel that BB was extremely dependent on breaking down film and he was incredibly good at it, obviously.

Still, point is, I don't think we're gonna get bit anywhere near the way we did. And our defense is the best defense in the playoffs, currently. I don't expect to see that change, I think our defense is going to be the highest functioning unit the next two games and it's the exact right time.

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Pretty much. But what don’t you like about the Seattle defense?

mike_usagisan said:

I liken Wolf to Drake on Mayo's Patriots. He sort of floundered and wasn't given direction and a solid team around him. Wolf now has Vrabel's direction on what he wants for the team and Cowden, Stretch, etc. around him helping to contribute to these personnel pick ups.

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When your the GM and told that you are the one buying the groceries and you fail to provide quality players to the coach, that's on you.

When you're the GM, but the COACH has the final say on roster additions/subtractions, then the failures are on the coach.

Wolf had the final say on the players brough in during 2024. Go back and look at all the misses he had, in regular free agency as well as the Draft. (I'm not even looking at in season signings or udfa).

Osborn, Okorafor, Jordan, Leverett, Armon Watts, Mike Purcell.

I will give him credit for signing Gibson and Hawkins.

But that's a pretty dismal showing.

Mack Herron said:

Pretty much. But what don’t you like about the Seattle defense?

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I think they're great and have been better than ours up until the playoffs.

Regardless of all the excuses our defense has put up the best stats this postseason last I saw and I think that sort of stuff is something a good coach and defensive unit will build a ton of confidence on. It's such a lovely change of pace from grimacing when the Bills or Bengals would take the field against our D. Like someone else posted when we have Gonzo and Williams active and playing we're a different team.

fnordcircle said:

Internet loves invoking Foles and Osweiler or even Matt Flynn (deep cut)

As if any of those Patriots' defensive players and coaches are still with this team...

Gonna go out on a limb and say that Vrabel and TW/Kuhr's defensive gameplans aren't as film dependent as BB's. Vrabel has also shown that he likes to have his defense dictate/pressure a ton more than we saw under BB and the various DCs. I could be wrong but I feel that BB was extremely dependent on breaking down film and he was incredibly good at it, obviously.

Still, point is, I don't think we're gonna get bit anywhere near the way we did. And our defense is the best defense in the playoffs, currently. I don't expect to see that change, I think our defense is going to be the highest functioning unit the next two games and it's the exact right time.

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I think you're correct.

And the "backup QB" thing is so goddamn dumb because I'd imagine the list of backup QB's being demolished by that dynasty is much larger.

This is different from some people merely stating Stid being better than some are giving credit, who some have maintained a pretty principled line on - merely stating they'd rather face Nix, but that we should win regardless.

Sometimes talking points are just injected into the radio waves so less-than-casual fans have a hot take to take to the water cooler at work the next day. Try and scratch beneath the surface with them, have them explain their point, and they suddenly back off lol.

uknepatsfan said:

They are an elite defense.

But, like Houston, you can score points on them too.

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They have some good pieces, but it's not nearly as good as what the Patriots have faced the last two weeks. Joseph's a pretty good DC, does some scheming, so it's challenging.

I've seen the Giants and Commanders move the ball at will against this team, and I saw the Bills do it last week.

Account for Nick Bonito, they should be ok.

denverpatsfan said:

Mims is really good. Especially on punt and kickoff returns. Can't be kicking the ball to him on Sunday...

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Very good.
Thankfully, the Patriots have a really good secondary.

mgteich said:

Why should we expect no turnovers?

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It won't be a rain/sleet/snow mix like it's been the last two games.

TommyD4207 said:

Very good.
Thankfully, the Patriots have a really good secondary.

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Except for the uncertainty of whether Carleton Davis clears the concussion protocol. I want to see “Full Participant” Friday.

fnordcircle said:

I was extremely happy with our pass rush, but maybe I'm still just used to the zero pressure play the percentages, bend don't break **** that made watching defense such a chore for the latter like 60% or more of BB's reign.

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I enjoyed the championships more than I would enjoyed high risk defense keeping us from winning them.