Patriots Pregame Thread Pre-Game thread - 2025 AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

NFL Mystique said:

Denver's defense leads the league with 68 sacks. Second place was 57. They led with 213 pressures, second was 197. They knock the QB down on 15.5% of passing attempts, also a league leader.
Opponents completed 57.8% of passes against them, 2nd in the league. They are 3rd in the league in passes defended. They don't miss many tackles either.

Opponents average 3.9 ypc, tied for 2nd best in the NFL.

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Denver gave up 30 points to the Bills.
Patriots gave up 19 points across 2 games.

Denver had the 5th worst Points differential of all the play-off teams at +90. Compared to +170 for the Patriots.

Pats averaged 28.8 PPG during the regular season while allowing 18.8PG.
Denver averaged 23.6PPG during the regular season while allowing 18.3PPG.

Granted, it's a small sample size, but the Patriots have held opponents below their Season average 18.8 in two games. Denver has allowed significantly more PPG than their average.

Two maligned pats are playing at a high level the second half of the season from weeks 11-DP:

Onwenu

1 sack
0 hits
4 hurries
98.8 pass block efficiency (4th/47th)

He has 0 sacks, 0 hits & 2 hurries in the last 5 games. This stretch is arguably the best he's played of his career.

Davis

37 targets
20 receptions
174 yards
0 TDs
2 INTs
44.2 passer rating (2nd/66th)

Similar to Gilmore in 2017, Davis had to adjust to a new scheme. While he's also had 7 penalties some of them have been questionable. Hopefully he can go this week vs. the broncos.

NFL Mystique said:

Buffalo has a better OL though

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I was waiting for that one to come!

DaBruinz said:

I'm one of the people who has weighed in on Wolf in the negative. He IS a horrible talent evaluator. He seems like an excellent manager. When Wolf was preparing the lists for BBs reviews, he was OK. When WOLF had the final say, we got the 2024 draft. Arguably the worst Patriots draft (outside of Maye) since 2007 and it ranks as one of the worst in Franchise history .

The reason for the change in 2025 is multiple. Vrabel KNOWS what he's looking for in players. Vrabel clearly has the ability to articulate these requirements. He's brought in people in Highsmtih, Streicher, and Cowden to guide the Scouting Department at both the Pro and College level. Vrabel brought in coaches who understand that articulation and whom can put it in motion on the field. Those coaches also have weighed in with the ability to let the Pro-Scouting Dept know which players they had first hand knowledge of who would fit those requirements. The previous sentence is based on the fact that when people looked at all the FAs the Pats brought into TC, every one of them had a direct tie to either Vrabel or the Coaches that he brought in. That's also extended to players like Charles Woods, Leonard Taylor and Thayer Munford.

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Is he a horrible talent evaluator or Belichick gave him nothing to work with to evaluate talent? I say the latter. Belichick had one of the smallest scouting department in the league in his final years. Belichick did not believe in analytics for talent evaluation. So the Pats had none of the tools that most other teams had to evaluate talent. In 2024, Mayo didn't even know what he wanted for talent. And he misused talent across the board. Belichick's grading system which was used to draft players drafted in the 2024 was based on fit in the system. Since Mayo had no system, it was impossible to grade.

And it has been documented that after Wolf was made GM, he started to build an analytics department. He has been working for the last year and a half to get the Patriots to a point that they are not miles behind everyone else in scouting tools. Belichick made Wolf scout blindfolded.

Also, Wolf brought in Highsmith to help implement the Packers' grading system for prospects and free agents that emphasized athleticism, explosiveness, and versatility. It is a whole new system than what Belichick used. But unfortunately, he was hired in February of 2024 long after most of the scouting for the 2024 draft prospects and free agents was already completed. You can't start over in February and try to find players that grade well on a completely different system.

And reports are Vrabel loves Wolf scouting and that they work well together selecting players for the team.

My one fear with Drake never having played in Denver is the thin air. Everyone talks about the extra distance on kicks, but with Drake liking the long passes will they carry further then he expects. This might throw off the passing game a little I don't know if this is a factor or not.

It is a factor. Physics rules.
But DM had to compensate for wet air and did OK so he's not oblivious.
Bet he throws deep a lot pre game.

mike_usagisan said:

I liken Wolf to Drake on Mayo's Patriots. He sort of floundered and wasn't given direction and a solid team around him. Wolf now has Vrabel's direction on what he wants for the team and Cowden, Stretch, etc. around him helping to contribute to these personnel pick ups.

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Someone made the picks in 2024 after Drake.

Whoever that was needs to be far away from picking players for the Pats.

If we get turnovers we absolutely need to capitalize on them on offense. We did not do well on that against Houston but in Denver every possession is going to matter.

On defense, I seem to recall Stidham likes TEs because he's not a very accurate passer and likes a larger catch radius. LBs and Safeties need to take TEs away.

I hope we win and leave Denver fans with a "what if we were healthy?" question to ponder all offseason, just like we went through in 2016.

mgteich said:

So, you are saying that Maye will improve from under 60% to 70% because we are playing a weaker Defense. Or perhaps you are saying that Maye will be over 70% simply because that is what you want to happen.

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1 Pats are undefeated on the road.
2 Maye is due for a big game.
3 The weather should be improved.
4 Hollins coukd be back.
5 Pats offense should win TOP because Nix is out.
6 McDaniels coached in Denver and when with the Raiders had to deal with the conditions.
7 Maye is the better QB. Stafford is the better one in the NFC.
8 Pats WRs are better than the Bills.
9. Buffalo beat themselves.
10 NEs defense is vastly underrated.

Triumph said:

1 Pats are undefeated on the road.
2 Maye is due for a big game.
3 The weather should be improved.
4 Hollins coukd be back.
5 Pats offense should win TOP because Nix is out.
6 McDaniels coached in Denver and when with the Raiders had to deal with the conditions.
7 Maye is the better QB. Stafford is the better one in the NFC.
8 Pats WRs are better than the Bills.
9. Buffalo beat themselves.
10 NEs defense is vastly underrated.

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I agree. But this guy does not......

We have to treat this game like it's going to be a defensive battle and we are a defensive-oriented team. Take care of the ball, play field position, and we will have our best chance to win the thing. We cannot GIVE Denver's offense short fields - that's the only way they are going to score 20+. Our offense even playing conservatively should be able to manage 20 or more. There will be opportunities in the intermediate pass game and taking some shots on Riley Moss (DPI machine) down the field. But we have to protect the ball - deep shot interceptions are ok, fumbles and short throw interceptions (esp. to the outside) are not.

We cannot expect to be the 2007 Patriots or any of the second dynasty 2010's Pats - we do not have the offensive line or the QB that's skilled/experienced enough to avoid a run of turnovers against elite pass rushes. We can't play that way. We are fortunate to be facing some impaired offenses and our defense should have a major advantage again. Play into that.

jal said:

We have to treat this game like it's going to be a defensive battle and we are a defensive-oriented team. Take care of the ball, play field position, and we will have our best chance to win the thing. We cannot GIVE Denver's offense short fields - that's the only way they are going to score 20+. Our offense even playing conservatively should be able to manage 20 or more. There will be opportunities in the intermediate pass game and taking some shots on Riley Moss (DPI machine) down the field. But we have to protect the ball - deep shot interceptions are ok, fumbles and short throw interceptions (esp. to the outside) are not.

We cannot expect to be the 2007 Patriots or any of the second dynasty 2010's Pats - we do not have the offensive line or the QB that's skilled/experienced enough to avoid a run of turnovers against elite pass rushes. We can't play that way. We are fortunate to be facing some impaired offenses and our defense should have a major advantage again. Play into that.

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cannot wait for the game day thread whining about josh's conservative play calling!

hahaha

VrabelJr said:

I hope we win and leave Denver fans with a "what if we were healthy?" question to ponder all offseason, just like we went through in 2016.

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I guarantee you that the media is going to downplay the Pats if they win and excuse the Broncos because Nix is out. Since 2007, I have zero sympathy for any team dealing with injuries. Nobody in the media acknowledged Tom Brady's severe high ankle sprain, Colvin, Morris and later Neal out during the Giants game in S42. Nobody acknowledged Gronk's injury in SB46 and the 2012/2013 seasons. Nobody cared that Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense was dead to rights until Aqib Talib tapped out of the 2012 AFCCG. The media's response was that the Pats lost fair and square!

Hunter Henry needs to be better at blocking. That is not his strong suit at all.

TheRainMaker said:

I guarantee you that the media is going to downplay the Pats if they win and excuse the Broncos because Nix is out. Since 2007, I have zero sympathy for any team dealing with injuries. Nobody in the media acknowledged Tom Brady's severe high ankle sprain, Colvin, Morris and later Neal out during the Giants game in S42. Nobody acknowledged Gronk's injury in SB46 and the 2012/2013 seasons. Nobody cared that Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense was dead to rights until Aqib Talib tapped out of the 2012 AFCCG. The media's response was that the Pats lost fair and square!

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So, do you think that an injured QB matters? Is the QB worth 2 points? 3 points? The bettors are making their assessment.

We should be at least 5.5 points favorites. If we win, why should the media be promoting the idea that this result wasn't affected by the loss of their QB?

uknepatsfan said:

I was waiting for that one to come!

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There is some truth to it though.

And to be clear: it's very possible that the Patriots put up 30 in this game and get back in a groove offensively. IF the OL holds up and turnovers stop.

denverpatsfan said:

For those of you that think Sean Payton is overrated. He directly impacted the game on Saturday.
The Winners and Losers of the NFL’s Divisional Round

This is twofold. The Broncos beat the Bills on Saturday in large part because of head coach Sean Payton’s offensive creativity and his ability to draw up the right play at the right moment for quarterback Bo Nix to exploit the weaknesses in Buffalo’s defense—particularly a banged-up secondary.


In the final minute of the first half, Bills safety Cam Lewis headed to the locker room early because of cramping in his legs. He was replaced by Darnell Savage—and the Broncos immediately took advantage. Nix rolled out of the pocket to his right, planted his feet, and launched a pass deep for receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who went streaking down the right seam and caught Savage out of position just outside the end zone. Savage could only dive at Humphrey’s feet as the receiver hauled in the touchdown.

Late in regulation, the Bills’ most experienced cornerback, Tre’Davious White, briefly left the game after getting pancaked by a Denver offensive lineman during a Nix scramble, and he was replaced by Dane Jackson. Payton determined it was the perfect time to dial up a pass play for Marvin Mims Jr. that the receiver ran to perfection earlier in the week in practice against Pat Surtain II, beating Denver’s best corner and last season’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year with a double move. Payton added the play to the call sheet Friday night and asked his assistants to remind him to call it in the game. “When we did our video the night before and we put the practice clip up, I said, ‘You’re beating the no. 1 corner in the world. All right? I don’t care who they put over there in the game tomorrow, we’re running this play,’” Payton told reporters Sunday morning.

That moment came as soon as White left the game. Mims motioned from the right side of the formation to the left to get lined up opposite of Jackson. A stutter-step about 6 yards into his route froze Jackson just enough for Mims to burst past the corner and get a step ahead as Nix laid the pass over Mims’s shoulder in the end zone. That 26-yard touchdown gave the Broncos a 30-27 lead with 55 seconds remaining.

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He drew up plays to exploit players going out of the game.....? That's an example of genius?

Listen, Payton is a solid ass coach but that’s some basic coaching lol.

patsinthesnow said:

Two maligned pats are playing at a high level the second half of the season from weeks 11-DP:

Onwenu

1 sack
0 hits
4 hurries
98.8 pass block efficiency (4th/47th)

He has 0 sacks, 0 hits & 2 hurries in the last 5 games. This stretch is arguably the best he's played of his career.

Davis

37 targets
20 receptions
174 yards
0 TDs
2 INTs
44.2 passer rating (2nd/66th)

Similar to Gilmore in 2017, Davis had to adjust to a new scheme. While he's also had 7 penalties some of them have been questionable. Hopefully he can go this week vs. the broncos.

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Just always count on Davis getting a flag. He’s big and he’s physical. He is the best at being that bully, large CB I’ve seen in a while - most of his archetype seem to be too slow and then draw way more flags, and come with more of a risk. More often than not, he will make plays that overcome the tacky PI call that he’s prone to drawing.

TheRainMaker said:

I guarantee you that the media is going to downplay the Pats if they win and excuse the Broncos because Nix is out. Since 2007, I have zero sympathy for any team dealing with injuries. Nobody in the media acknowledged Tom Brady's severe high ankle sprain, Colvin, Morris and later Neal out during the Giants game in S42. Nobody acknowledged Gronk's injury in SB46 and the 2012/2013 seasons. Nobody cared that Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense was dead to rights until Aqib Talib tapped out of the 2012 AFCCG. The media's response was that the Pats lost fair and square!

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Hypocrisy at it's finest by ESPN

Nikolai said:

I highly doubt Denver is going to run the ball very well on us and the game will be in Stiddy's hands. That's mostly good for us, but if their OL holds, and there's no reason to think it won't, he'll have his good moments. I wouldn't be shocked to see a stat line like this:

26/41 256 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Lots of attempts due to the running game's ineptitude. I recall Peyton has a tendency to abandon the run game if it's not there (open to correction here).

I don't think it'll be enough to stop whatever McDaniels has cooked up with Maye, to go with a solid run game.

Pats 27
Liddy J Stiddy 20

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I can’t see Stidham putting up 20

Vindicate said:

He drew up plays to exploit players going out of the game.....? That's an example of genius?

Listen, Payton is a solid ass coach but that’s some basic coaching lol.



Just always count on Davis getting a flag. He’s big and he’s physical. He is the best at being that bully, large CB I’ve seen in a while - most of his archetype seem to be too slow and then draw way more flags, and come with more of a risk. More often than not, he will make plays that overcome the tacky PI call that he’s prone to drawing.

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Davis takes a page from the 2013 Seahawks defensive playbook. Meaning, let's grab on most of the plays. Refs will call it a few times. Certainly not on every play though.

For the most part, he has been an asset and not a liability.