Okay; so you meant "It's my opinion that he won't play on Wednesday." Everybody's entitled to one
If I'm Gonzo, I'm encouraging the chunk of the fanbase willing to be mad at the team's ownership, their radio and online "leaders," etc. You've done your part, I guess. And I know that the "pay him now" contingent truly believes they should pay right now whatever his ask is. They also see it as a given that the Pats are "cheap" for asking their employees to perform the services for which they're contracted to receive their pay.
It's all "who wants it more" and gamesmanship. We're over a barrel if he plain breaches his contract. He's over a barrel if he has to honor his contract. Of course he'd like not to do what he signed on to do. Of course he signed when he was only potential, and now it seems like such an inconvenience to do what he said he'd do.
Does he sit next Wednesday, as if taking that action will have no repurcussions? I don't think so. I do think he comes out not the player he'd be if he were putting his all into camp.
I love the guy and want to keep him, and my guess is that the Pats want to keep him. The AI slopbot says he's now expected to sign for $40m/year, without delving into amount guaranteed, etc., this coming off-season. I read numbers like $33m/year here. The cap for the team is $301 M. The team has to be cheap with the rest of the team because a single player out of 53 is commanding 1/8 of our money.
Put another way, let's use the 53 players as the total personnel cost (I know, there are things to think about like PS players, summer rental money, etc.) divide 301M among them evenly. They get an annual average salary of $5.68M a year. Looks like JAG money, because most guys are JAGs and so many guys on a youngish team -- Gonzo, for example -- are on cheap deals.
With Gonzo at $40M, you are dividing 261M by 53, which comes to $4.925M a year. Now I know that Gonzo's got to eat and big macs cost like $12 now, but something tells me that on his rookie contract money for the next year, we won't see him holding a cup in front of the 7-11.
Meanwhile, the lunch-pail guy gets to see management take >$750,000 out of his pocket, on average, so that Gonzo doesn't have to suffer the indignity of "cheap" management. Of course that won't be spread evenly; they can't legally hit the league-minimum guys. So that hit gets absorbed elsewhere. The more you make, the more you get hit by Gonzo's need to get paid a year early.
Gonzo's millions are not a cheap management vs. talented player issue. They're a matter of cap discipline. Cave to every super-talented prima donna -- in contract terms -- and you simply have less to pay the other 52, in any given instance. That's a huge part of the "Dynasty Years" or "Dynasties Years." For a while we were notable for paying a big middle class and having very few contract standouts. Or as you would say, we were "cheap." People didn't mind it as much when you got them a ring
And yeah, the guys are right who said "just watch them try to convince Drake Maye to take less than highest imaginable value." Yeah, the team might do that.
But I consider that "cheap" the moment they don't spend to the cap, and not before. They're not saving on their total bill. They're paying their depth guys, they're paying the other stars, basically they're paying everybody else on the team by making Gonzo do what he committed to doing at the outset.
So I don't know whether a holdout is wise. Seriously - I don't know if it would get him what he wants, if he wants to go down that path.
I don't know that I'd say "why that bastard!" or just say, "okay, he's chosen to do that... now we're in that territory... his business is his business..."
But I DO know that calling the team cheap for its present position is way off base.
Fan GMs, God love them/us, come from the best place, a place of love for the team. But we don't always think through all the implications. We focus on a handful of stars. We forget precisely what Vrabes went public to criticize, our depth. Is Gonzo really the last case of "pay him at the top, now, before his contract is up," etc.? Of course not. We'll have "Pay the Beast" moments every year.
I think this team has clarified that we intend to have money for depth players. Unfortunately for Gonzo, his belief that his signed contract shouldn't count is simply a matter of what he'd like to happen. I'd like to have a lot of things. That doesn't mean that I will. And in this regard, Gonzo and I are in the same boat.
I don't think Gonzo thinks he'll get anything by Wednesday, though I might be wrong. I think he's ginning up fake outrage for when he has to play for mere millions of dollars not tens of millions this year. Then he can bring up the terrible mistreatment that he took for the team -- having to meet his contract obligations -- in hopes that he can monetize it later when they are negotiating his next deal.
One more thing - he can choose to poison the well and be a real problem child if he doesn't get what he wants. The team has actions it can take to at least make it costly for him. Nobody wants that scenario... but if such a scenario unfolds, it's not necessarily because of the terrible ownership that didn't cave like it should.
Ok, I'm done... I've got projects to get to. Sorry for the core dump!
