WR Speed

[n1997y]

Another way to think about it is the space that creates. A .05 lead can equate to about two extra footage of separation compared to someone who was .05 slower.

That’s a good starting point. On an unimpeded straight line dash a .05 difference is about 2’ which is significant, or can be depending on what the player can do with it. Where things get interesting is on the football field where it’s uncommon to be unimpeded and running in a straight line. It’s great when the ball in his hands in open space, that’s what we all want to see (when it’s our guy with the ball of course). Question is how much does that straight line speed help get the ball into his hands? Or are the benefits of those two extra feet of separation lost when he gets jammed, has to cut, or runs the wrong route? So I’m thinking not just about the two feet but also what if it’s only a foot and he’s more physical, more agile, and/or runs better routes?

 

[Salsalife]

Mass (weight), height, length (wingspan), inline speed (forty), agility (shuttle/cone), explosion (jumping), strength (bench/weight room data)…. all measurables matter.

Do some fans overrate forty times in a vacuum… for sure. But a great forty time paired with great accompanying measurables is what a scout is looking at… along with brains and football smarts.

Randy Moss was tall, long, explosive, had good agility for a tall guy and was really football smart… but his speed on top of these things made him dominant.

In a league full of fast people, Moss was the fastest… and by chance you ran with him, he could out leap and out stretch you.

There’s alternative versions of this where agility for example was the defining trait. Look at Stephon Gilmore for one, he was fast and had all the measurables, but what made him unique was at 6 feet tall he had absurd agility, he had the quickness of a much smaller player. His 3.94 shuttle and 6.61 cone were absurd for his height.

Measurables and speed aren’t all that matter, but they matter a lot.

It took 7 years for Troy Brown to become a starter. Jules 4 years. Let that sink in. Speed + knowledge....

 

[n1997y]

Yeah, but you're assuming a defender isn't equally as fast and athletic. I guarantee that in the NFL most physical advantages are negated by the guys on the other side. Guys like Darrell Green and Deion Sanders. Fans (and scouts, it seems) sometimes forget that receivers don't play in a vacuum. Then they compound that error by assuming the NFL is like college and high school. The NFL is no joke. When you look at how few players every year get jobs in the league compared to how many are made available, it's clear the NFL represents an elite group of athletes.

That’s a really good point. Even the JAGs are really good athletes. It’s hard to find the elite traits that stand out, like speed. Guys like Deion Sanders are just as rare as guys like Randy Moss. Maybe it’s okay to have a one trick pony who’s just so fast in a straight line that he has to be covered by the elite speed of the opposing CB1 even if he’s not much of a threat in any other way? So his catches may be sporadic but he gets teammates more catches (not just about speed, re AJ and Doubs)? Or is that not good, if he is too easily jammed or rerouted so any CB can shut him down? It’s another dimension to consider how one speedy WR affects the overall team offense.

Nearly without exception, the biggest success stories every year are the guys who put in the mental work. The Patriots dynasty was built on guys like that. Troy Brown, Tom Brady, Welker, Edelman, Malcolm Butler, Stephen Neal, Tedy Bruschi, Dan Koppen, Kevin Faulk, Vrabel himself... they were all guys who studied their way into greatness.

This is a great point, guys who are relatively mediocre athletes in the overall NFL population can become the biggest stars by outworking the guys around them. That’s why I hate the fans who are quick to dismiss young players as JAGs before they even see the field in the NFL, and love it when we see one of those players put in the work to become an outstanding player. Nink was one, among many others. Tedy was another who had lots of heart, even if it had a hole in it. Those are guys it’s easy to root for even if they lack elite traits, such as speed.

 

[Wozzy]

It took 7 years for Troy Brown to become a starter. Jules 4 years. Let that sink in. Speed + knowledge....

Some take longer, some take less time… some have a great rotation in front of them on the depth chart and could have played offense a lot sooner. Edelman was a college QB, it’s all relative.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Some take longer, some take less time… some have a great rotation in front of them on the depth chart and could have played offense a lot sooner. Edelman was a college QB, it’s all relative.

Edelman is a weird case. He was leading all rookies in receptions when he broke his arm against the Titans. And then that offseason BB brought in numerous pass catchers [most notably two TEs] that ended up burying Edelman on the depth chart. Without those . . . who knows?

 

[TheRainMaker]

Edelman is a weird case. He was leading all rookies in receptions when he broke his arm against the Titans. And then that offseason BB brought in numerous pass catchers [most notably two TEs] that ended up burying Edelman on the depth chart. Without those . . . who knows?

Edelman has said on his podcast that the Pats were trying to run him off the roster. Tate and Price were drafted in 2009/2010, Branch was back in the mix, Ocho Cinco traded for and Lloyd was signed in 2012. Had Welker stayed and Hernandez not been arrested, he was set to sign with the Giants in 2013.

 

[mgteich]

Exactly. Except that I think Williams has not yet conclusively demonstrated that he has all the necessary abilities. That’s why his place on the squad is still an open question.

Unless Vrabel views Williams in the category, he will be given another year to develop, even if he were to be inactive for much of the year.

 

[mgteich]

It took 7 years for Troy Brown to become a starter. Jules 4 years. Let that sink in. Speed + knowledge....

That's one of the reasons we have 4-year rookie contracts. That being said, teams don't usually keep players because they might develop in Year 4, 5 or 6.

 

[Grogan14]

Larry Fitzgerald 4.63
Jerry Rice 4.71
Anquan Boldin 4.71
Jarvis Landry 4.73
Chris Carter 4.63
Ochocinco 4.57
Hines Ward 4.55
Antonion Brown 4.57
Wes Welker 4.6.5
Puka Nacka 4.5.7

"nuff said"

pure straight line speed in underwear is so overrated.

Much more important is short line quickness , agility for quick decisive turns, strong hands to push off with and catch, body control, timing

Lightning speed (e.g. 4.3 or less) only rarely shows up on single coverage go routes but other factors are much more important

 

[rkarp1]

It took 7 years for Troy Brown to become a starter. Jules 4 years. Let that sink in. Speed + knowledge....

Brown and Je were not fast
Speed is over rated

 

[Wozzy]

Brown and Je were not fast
Speed is over rated

They were fast is four directions, which is far more important in the slot. Agility, the ability to change direction and break ankles is speed.

4.5 forty isn’t fast, it also isn’t slow, it’s about average for an NFL skill player.

Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson were absurdly fast, speed kills when it can be utilized.

 

[rkarp1]

They were fast is four directions, which is far more important in the slot. Agility, the ability to change direction and break ankles is speed.

4.5 forty isn’t fast, it also isn’t slow, it’s about average for an NFL skill player.

Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson were absurdly fast, speed kills when it can be utilized.

average is not fast
neither is a great 3 cone or a shuttle.
a WR can be very effective with out straight line speed
and the opposite is also true.
a WR can be very ineffective with straight line speed

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson were absurdly fast, speed kills when it can be utilized.

Julio Jones. If Edelman was faster, he would have been so much better.

 

[Wozzy]

average is not fast

It’s average, I verbatim wrote the words “4.5 forty isn’t fast, it also isn’t slow.”

neither is a great 3 cone or a shuttle.

Wrong, it’s a fast change of direction. Fast around corners, fast stop and go.

a WR can be very effective with out straight line speed

Sure if he has some combination of size, length, strength, agility or explosion… along with the know how. These are all measurables, which is why you need to look at the big picture and not hyper focus solely on inline speed.

and the opposite is also true.
a WR can be very ineffective with straight line speed

There’s a tool for every job, if I want a field stretching deep threat ideally he’s fast. The same way I want to use the correct bit socket when I need to wrench something. I don’t use a flounder to hammer in a nail.

 

[Wozzy]

Julio Jones. If Edelman was faster, he would have been so much better.

Edelman had an extraordinary quickness, his agility drills were superior. Fast in four directions.

 

[scott99]

Edelman had an extraordinary quickness, his agility drills were superior. Fast in four directions.

You watch Edelman highlights, and it’s insane how quick he was. And he certainly had enough straight line speed as well. At one point in his career, he was the top all time punt returner in NFL history (yards per return). He would juke the hell out of people, but also ran past them.

My opinion is that players get locked in at a certain speed just because of a run at the combine or pro day. Jerry Rice was certainly much faster that his 4.71 time people say he ran. Same goes with Larry Fitzgerald. It’s quite possible they just ran a bad forty that day.

I go back to Kyle Williams, I think he ran a 4.40 and a 4.42, you can tell he was extremely disappointed with those times. Very fast times indeed, but I would bet anything those weren’t his absolute best 40 times. I bet he can run faster. His highlights and that TD vs Tampa prove to me he can run faster than 4.40. He can fly.

 

[Wozzy]

You watch Edelman highlights, and it’s insane how quick he was. And he certainly had enough straight line speed as well. At one point in his career, he was the top all time punt returner in NFL history (yards per return). He would juke the hell out of people, but also ran past them.

The average NFL fan looks at Edelman as another Patriots “slow white guy.”

Knowledgeable fans who understand scouting look at his 3.92 shuttle and 6.62 cone and understand how exceptionally fast it is.

It’s ignorance plain and simple.

My opinion is that players get locked in at a certain speed just because of a run at the combine or pro day. Jerry Rice was certainly much faster that his 4.71 time people say he ran. Same goes with Larry Fitzgerald. It’s quite possible they just ran a bad forty that day.

The widely cited time of 4.71 seconds for Jerry Rice at the 1985 NFL Combine is generally regarded by historians and scouts as incorrect. It is believed to be an urban myth or a result of hand-timing errors (which were common before electronic timing was standard).

According to multiple scouts and coaches. Bill Walsh (49ers Head Coach) stated Rice ran a 4.59 at the combine.Gil Brandt (former Cowboys GM) timed Rice nine times at the combine and noted he ran a 4.55. Reports also exist of Rice running 4.45 seconds at Mississippi Valley State University during private workouts.

I go back to Kyle Williams, I think he ran a 4.40 and a 4.42, you can tell he was extremely disappointed with those times. Very fast times indeed, but I would bet anything those weren’t his absolute best 40 times. I bet he can run faster. His highlights and that TD vs Tampa prove to me he can run faster than 4.40. He can fly.

Many players workout twice for scouts, once at the combine and again at the pro day. Many players do better the second time around. These prospects play football, they don’t usually train for combine drills. Some schools like Nick Saban’s Alabama players don’t workout at all, or give a minimal effort workout…they’re going in the first few rounds whether they workout at all.

It’s an imperfect process, but it’s all data points. Anyone saying measurables don’t matter simply don’t understand why they matter.

 

[State]

The Navy kid in the last draft ran a faster 3-cone time than the blistering fast Kent State QB ran. Julian Edelman.
Steve Morse really liked Eli Heidenreich or sumthing. Kid looks like the next Julian Edelman.

 

[n1997y]

Sure if he has some combination of size, length, strength, agility or explosion… along with the know how. These are all measurables, which is why you need to look at the big picture and not hyper focus solely on inline speed.

Exactly. All the measurables are important. Straight line speed is one measurable, and it seems to get disproportionate attention. It’s common to hear comments about blazing speed because of a good forty time, much less common to hear comments about breaking ankles because of a fast 3 cone time.

 

[mgteich]

We’re not going to wait 4 years for Chism to develop. full stop.