“It’ll take us years to contend”

[imahobgoblin]

I don’t think the depth is as bad as common belief would have it.

We just saw an example in the last game, with the entire left side of the OL being backups.

I think there are certainly opportunities for improvement, but I don’t think the situation is as dire as some would make it seem.

It’s pretty clear at this point in the season that we are serious contenders this year. There’s no real reason for that to change just because the calendar rolls over. It could change because other teams make moves in the future but we’ll be moving too.

So there’s likely only reason to say the new dynasty hasn’t been established is because we need to demonstrate sustained success. It’s been formed, just as of now has not yet endured.

Really? You don't think the O-line depth, RB depth, CB depth, Saftey depth, and WR is all that bad? McD did a great job scheming against the Giants and Drake stepped up, but that is not the line we want or need. Have you not checked out our run game? Our starters cannot get a TD on the 1 yard line let alone the backups. We are not even close to rebuilding the O-line and it will have three new starters within 1-2 years. Rham is gone next season and we don't know if Gibby will be ready to go. Jennings and bums from the practice squad are not the answer. If Gonzo goes down, we are ok for a few games, but anything more and we are in trouble. The D-line depth is sweat, but the lack of pass rush and depth there needs work. We need a true FS.

The foundation for a new dynasty is being laid still, and they are doing a great job. It has not been formed. We have not won anything yet. Yes, we are serious contenders, but not where we need to be yet.

 

[mgteich]

And Marcus Bryant looks likely to be a future starter who just couldn’t crack the starting lineup as a rookie over veteran Morgan Moses and his $24million contract.

and who couldn't make the active roster over a street free agent who covered both RT and LT.
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Bryant is a great 7th round pick. However, he hasn't shown anything yet.

 

[mgteich]

Really? You don't think the O-line depth, RB depth, CB depth, Saftey depth, and WR is all that bad? McD did a great job scheming against the Giants and Drake stepped up, but that is not the line we want or need. Have you not checked out our run game? Our starters cannot get a TD on the 1 yard line let alone the backups. We are not even close to rebuilding the O-line and it will have three new starters within 1-2 years. Rham is gone next season and we don't know if Gibby will be ready to go. Jennings and bums from the practice squad are not the answer. If Gonzo goes down, we are ok for a few games, but anything more and we are in trouble. The D-line depth is sweat, but the lack of pass rush and depth there needs work. We need a true FS.

The foundation for a new dynasty is being laid still, and they are doing a great job. It has not been formed. We have not won anything yet. Yes, we are serious contenders, but not where we need to be yet.

Yes, 11-2 is nowhere good enough.
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Obviously, we will not be where we need to be until we win at least 3 additional Super Bowls.
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We have one of best 5 teams in the NFL. I understand that isn't anywhere enough for you.

We will likely have another huge free agent spend and another good draft. And that won't be enough either.
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[1960Pats]

Remember the people before the season who insisted this to be true? That it was silly to expect even a postseason bid this year, because this team was going to be a 3-5 year rebuild?

Welcome to 2025. You get the right QB, right coach. Anything can happen. This isn’t the John McKay era anymore. Rebuilds don’t take 5 years.

I didn't expect them to be in the postseason either. Not many fans did. I've also been surprised at the level of play of Diggs. He makes tough catches look easy.

Now the question is can they pull off another 2001-ish season with a newer HC coming off of a poor season with a QB in his second year. And after adding a few free agents they win a few straight and then beat a stacked Rams team in the SB.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Remember the people before the season who insisted this to be true? That it was silly to expect even a postseason bid this year, because this team was going to be a 3-5 year rebuild?

Welcome to 2025. You get the right QB, right coach. Anything can happen. This isn’t the John McKay era anymore. Rebuilds don’t take 5 years.

The turnaround has come a lot quicker than expected.

Three big factors come into play here.

First we have the softest schedule of any team in the NFL.

Second we hit on nearly all of our free agent pickups and draft picks.

Third we hired the right coach in Mike Vrabel. He then hired the right staff and Maye was already here waiting. Maye just needed competent coaching and Josh McDaniel looks to have been the perfect guy to elevate his game. McDaniel was also a great mentor for an all time great in Tom Brady.

When you're coming off back to back 4-13 seasons it's really difficult to predict this perfect storm. It was more reasonable to advocate patience for a rebuilding team with a lot of youths coming in and new cogs that had never been with the team before.

But somehow Vrabel cooked up a perfect mix of ingredients that helped lead to an 11-2 record at this point in the season. If you told me before the season started that you expected the Patriots to go on a 10 game win streak and be top of the AFC at this point of the season, I'd find that really had to believe.

That being said, I'm glad it has happened. They proved me wrong. I expected a modest improvement. I did not expect a lock for the playoffs and actual contention for the #1 seed in the AFC at this time of the year. Hopefully we have more great moments to come but it has been a really fun and unexpected ride so far.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Wozzy]

The few who got it right were the ones who said...................

Six years back in 2020

You just making up stuff now?

Let me guess, you said “multiyear rebuild” this offseason…

 

[Wozzy]

I got +2800 odds back in July when we had the 31st worst ranked weapons.

 

[Toofy]

Yep, I missed Bryant. I like his potential.

And you also forgot ponder who is killing it as a udfa

 

[n1997y]

Really? You don't think the O-line depth, RB depth, CB depth, Saftey depth, and WR is all that bad?

No. I don’t think they are all that bad.

OL depth was just tested and came through okay. RB depth was tested when Gibson went down and Jennings has been okay. I expect if he goes down either Johnson or Reynolds will step up just as well. I’d like more CB depth but our CB2 could be CB1 on a lot of teams, and we’ve got some guys waiting for their chance so I’m not seeing that as “all that bad”. Safety ditto. WR I’m thinking we’re good with our top 5 WRs and have EFCIII and others waiting to step up.

So, no, I don’t think they’re all that bad.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

We /did/ have this easy of a schedule last year.

It wasn't this easy; it was .471 last year (136 wins). Right now they're around .400, and the theoretical maximum is only .453.

 

[Huckleberry1]

That's the opposite of what you think.

The ones crying 'easy schedule', are terrified of what they're seeing. The Bills, for example, have a near-identical schedule to the Patriots. The Broncos and Colts haven't played much more difficult schedules.

A lot of the 'AFC is down' and 'AFC is wide open' talk, is from people a) who don't want their preseason picks to be wrong, never discount that, and b) they're scared of what they're seeing from the Patriots.

How many decades did we hear about 'easy schedules' and 'easy divisions', and the Patriots won plenty. The 'weakness' of the AFC East during the Brady/Belichick-era was the most overblown ********, nonsense take from any talking head. Tell me about those murderers-rows the Peyton Manning's Colts or Phillip Rivers Chargers went through every year.

To me, when a talking head starts talking about 'easy schedule' at /this/ point in the season, it's easy to discount them for ever having any serious analysis, and it's ok to ignore them.

I agree with much of this, but one of the dynamics that comes into play when there is a long term dominant team in a division actually is an easier schedule. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy because the other owners in that division get antsy and start firing their coaches and GM's over and over because they keep failing to overtake that dominant team. I have never counted up the Coaches and GM's that were fired in the AFCE during the 20 year Dynasty run but it had to be a ****load of them, and that kind of turnover inevitably means bad hires and bad teams.

And while I'm on this subject I'll say that I never hated the Bills the way I hated the Jets and Fish, but if they go back to the pack without winning a Lombardi during the Patriots slump, and the Patriots go on another Dynasty run I am going to laugh my ass off..

 

[patfanken]

Continuity is a built in advantage for teams with established coaching staffs and good organizations. It was a big advantage for us for close to 2 decades until it finally ran its course. It's been that way for KC and the Eagles the last 10 years and hopefully will be that way again for us in the coming decade. Teams that have to change their HC's every 3-5 years take a step back every time they make a change that they have to overcome.

The culture and message Mike Vrabel has brought to the Pats has been well received, but the true test will come 3-4 years from now to see if that same message doesn't go stale. It took almost 20 years for Bill's voice to be tuned out and that is a remarkable result. But what Mike has going on now is remarkable in that there seems to be a universal by in so fast, though a 10 game win streak will get the staff a LOT of credibility. It will be interesting to see if they will keep that same level of by in when they have a period of sustained adversity. That's the true test of a team's by in.

 

[1960Pats]

That's totally random year to year. Some seasons you have a division where there are 3 playoff teams and another where 3 teams are in the top third of the draft. Smooth out decades of performance to an average/mean and there's probably little difference. But your schedule is a one year at a time thing and in any given year there are bound to be extremes. Sometimes you get lucky and play the weak end of those extremes and sometimes you get unlucky and play the year where a division is a juggernaut. And sometimes it's just a ho-hum "normal" win total distribution in the division you play where the best team is good the worst teams is bad and 2nd/3rd fall in order.

Yup, there can be big differences in schedules in a single season. Look at the AFCN. They suck and could end up with a very poor team in the playoffs while teams with better records and wins against that team sit home. You just play the games and hope you aren't the better team that's sitting home.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Yes, 11-2 is nowhere good enough.
==========
Obviously, we will not be where we need to be until we win at least 3 additional Super Bowls.
========
We have one of best 5 teams in the NFL. I understand that isn't anywhere enough for you.

We will likely have another huge free agent spend and another good draft. And that won't be enough either.
===========

I said none of the idiocy you just wrote.

 

[Thelonious]

I think this is right to a significant degree, though I suppose it depends in part on how one defines "contending" or "competitive."

I predicted eight wins and thought they had a chance - <50% chance - of making the playoffs. I thought they had no chance of getting into the SB and no chance of winning it. I still pretty much don't, tbh. The quirky schedule gave us all a chance to get a closer look recently at other teams competing for playoff/championships. I left that experience thinking that while we probably have the best quarterback of the bunch, and one of the better HC's, we are not - top to bottom of the roster - at the same level as several of them. Shortening the length of the gauntlet wby securing the top seed, greasing the skids a little, would certainly improve our chances, but I still don't think we'd make it.

I will happily acknowledge that I have been too pessimistic at every turn re this year's team, so it's entirely possible - likely if you prefer - that I and those of my ilk are wrong. If I am, I'll be as happy as anybody about that.

Part of the reason for my contentment either way is that I think the team has already accomplished everything and more I was hoping for out of this season - I was looking for solid, empirically confirmable progress, and that we have seen in spades. I'll be happy if they advance to the SB or win it, but I won't be disappointed if they don't, because I dont expect them to, and because it's all gravy from here on out.

 

[Wozzy]

No. I don’t think they are all that bad.

OL depth was just tested and came through okay. RB depth was tested when Gibson went down and Jennings has been okay. I expect if he goes down either Johnson or Reynolds will step up just as well. I’d like more CB depth but our CB2 could be CB1 on a lot of teams, and we’ve got some guys waiting for their chance so I’m not seeing that as “all that bad”. Safety ditto. WR I’m thinking we’re good with our top 5 WRs and have EFCIII and others waiting to step up.

So, no, I don’t think they’re all that bad.

This ^

The notion there are multiple teams out there with multiple high quality starting offensive linemen and every other position sitting on their bench is nonsense.

Some teams are deeper than others at certain position groups, but no team is supremely deep at all positions.

A rebuild begins with a godawful talent deprived roster and gobs of dead cap hindering your ability to pay anyone… not league best available cap space, talented young players and a franchise QB already on the roster.

It’s a great example of team building by Vrabel/Cowden, but not a rebuild. That started in 2020 when they tore it down to the foundation.

 

[Ring 6]

Really? You don't think the O-line depth, RB depth, CB depth, Saftey depth, and WR is all that bad? McD did a great job scheming against the Giants and Drake stepped up, but that is not the line we want or need. Have you not checked out our run game? Our starters cannot get a TD on the 1 yard line let alone the backups. We are not even close to rebuilding the O-line and it will have three new starters within 1-2 years. Rham is gone next season and we don't know if Gibby will be ready to go. Jennings and bums from the practice squad are not the answer. If Gonzo goes down, we are ok for a few games, but anything more and we are in trouble. The D-line depth is sweat, but the lack of pass rush and depth there needs work. We need a true FS.

The foundation for a new dynasty is being laid still, and they are doing a great job. It has not been formed. We have not won anything yet. Yes, we are serious contenders, but not where we need to be yet.

I think our depth is easy to criticize bit it’s not worse than most teams.
We have had starters at RB, DL, S, WR, LT, LG miss time and didn’t really miss a beat.

Look around the league. Backups are either guys who have never done anything or pretty much slugs. We aren’t different. But where we have been different is that the next man up has been fine and we haven’t missed a beat.

No team is flawless. We are as good as any, and you can list needs for every team.

 

[Bill Lee]

I will happily acknowledge that I have been too pessimistic at every turn re this year's team, so it's entirely possible - likely if you prefer - that I and those of my ilk are wrong. If I am, I'll be as happy as anybody about that.

That's not good enough. Clearly some posters want to stand over you and wave their willy at you. That's what this thread's for AFAICT.

 

[Brotherblues]

The foundation for a new dynasty is being laid still, and they are doing a great job. It has not been formed. We have not won anything yet. Yes, we are serious contenders, but not where we need to be yet.

Is anyone ever "where they need to be" to be a dynasty? Even in the middle of a run, we hear ad nauseum about a team's shortcomings. Look at the 2014-2018 Pats dynasty as a prime example.

What you strive for is to be a serious contender for an extended period. To sustainably be at the big dance with the best odds possible. Right now that's where they are, and it's exactly where they need to be.