“It’ll take us years to contend”

[One-If-By-Sea]

Trying to make people eat crow about moderated expectations going into what has been a delightfully surprising season is quite possibly the most fanboard type of post here in a long time.

Because it is fun. Shove it up their ass.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Winning games is good but my biggest worry/fear/concern if you can call it that is that we'd have a season like the Giants in 2022 or even us in 2021 where the record was good but it looked fluky.

The Giants in 2022 made the playoffs with Daniel Jones in Daboll's first year, but 8 of their 9 wins were 8 points or less. That's not to discredit those wins, because wins are wins, but it was obvious that team was fluky. Daniel Jones obviously still wasn't "good" and they just had a lot of close game luck to be blunt about it.

In 2021 with Mac Jones, we made mass FA signings to improve the baseline talent and then Mac Jones added some stability to the QB position. With the good coaching it was enough to beat up the cupcakes but get shredded by all the "real" teams most of the time.

Both those teams made the playoffs (NYG even won a game) so not to say those are bad seasons or not enjoyable as fans. But just bigger picture, those teams kind of just got themselves stuck in mediocrity. Make the playoffs and pick later even though your team is starving for top talent. With our schedule so weak, I was kind of "nervous" we'd do similar where we win some games but it just wasn't really sustainable. I put nervous in quotes because winning is good, but I think most will understand the nuance of what I'm saying.

Fortunately, this looks like a "real" playoff team. This doesn't feel fluky. They aren't just squeaking by. Their QB looks truly ELITE unlike those teams. Gonzo and Campbell look like building block players are critical positions. The cap situation is good now and into the future. This doesn't feel artificial or fluky at all.

 

[Ring 6]

What you said makes sense. I am just trying to offer an explanation to the other side.

I’m not disputing that thinking exists, I’m just questioning why people prefer that approach.

I equate it to not feeling well scheduling a doctors appointment to get tested and spending 2 weeks convinced you are going to die. Regardless of the diagnosis you are going to feel the same whether you were hopeful or dour for 2 weeks, so why not enjoy the 2 weeks?
I think that people think the bad news won’t be as bad if you expect it but I don’t think that’s true, the result is what the result is. And of course the other side is if the news is good you spent 2 weeks miserable for no reason.

 

[NFL Mystique]

"Ya you gotta draft Marvin Harrison Jr cause this team can't support a QB"

"You gotta trade down and get picks and pick Penix or JJ McCarthy"

Amazing how people still haven't figured out if you get the coach/QB right you're almost consistently a fringe playoff team even if the rest of the team kinda blows, once those 2 positions are sorted that's when the build starts there is no roster building without the quarterback.

Of course,

Winning games is good but my biggest worry/fear/concern if you can call it that is that we'd have a season like the Giants in 2022 or even us in 2021 where the record was good but it looked fluky.

The Giants in 2022 made the playoffs with Daniel Jones in Daboll's first year, but 8 of their 9 wins were 8 points or less. That's not to discredit those wins, because wins are wins, but it was obvious that team was fluky. Daniel Jones obviously still wasn't "good" and they just had a lot of close game luck to be blunt about it.

In 2021 with Mac Jones, we made mass FA signings to improve the baseline talent and then Mac Jones added some stability to the QB position. With the good coaching it was enough to beat up the cupcakes but get shredded by all the "real" teams most of the time.

Both those teams made the playoffs (NYG even won a game) so not to say those are bad seasons or not enjoyable as fans. But just bigger picture, those teams kind of just got themselves stuck in mediocrity. Make the playoffs and pick later even though your team is starving for top talent. With our schedule so weak, I was kind of "nervous" we'd do similar where we win some games but it just wasn't really sustainable. I put nervous in quotes because winning is good, but I think most will understand the nuance of what I'm saying.

Fortunately, this looks like a "real" playoff team. This doesn't feel fluky. They aren't just squeaking by. Their QB looks truly ELITE unlike those teams. Gonzo and Campbell look like building block players are critical positions. The cap situation is good now and into the future. This doesn't feel artificial or fluky at all.

Everyone could see Daniel Jones season was not that good....except for the front office. So they signed him to a huge extension that backfired.

I think a team's worst nightmare is when an average to good QB is up for an extension. They aren't bad enough to get rid of. They aren't good enough to carry a team. It's what happened to the Jags with Lawrence. Miami with Tua. Those are two elite contracts for good QB's at best. The Texans face it this offseason with Stroud.

 

[Toofy]

Winning games is good but my biggest worry/fear/concern if you can call it that is that we'd have a season like the Giants in 2022 or even us in 2021 where the record was good but it looked fluky.

The Giants in 2022 made the playoffs with Daniel Jones in Daboll's first year, but 8 of their 9 wins were 8 points or less. That's not to discredit those wins, because wins are wins, but it was obvious that team was fluky. Daniel Jones obviously still wasn't "good" and they just had a lot of close game luck to be blunt about it.

In 2021 with Mac Jones, we made mass FA signings to improve the baseline talent and then Mac Jones added some stability to the QB position. With the good coaching it was enough to beat up the cupcakes but get shredded by all the "real" teams most of the time.

Both those teams made the playoffs (NYG even won a game) so not to say those are bad seasons or not enjoyable as fans. But just bigger picture, those teams kind of just got themselves stuck in mediocrity. Make the playoffs and pick later even though your team is starving for top talent. With our schedule so weak, I was kind of "nervous" we'd do similar where we win some games but it just wasn't really sustainable. I put nervous in quotes because winning is good, but I think most will understand the nuance of what I'm saying.

Fortunately, this looks like a "real" playoff team. This doesn't feel fluky. They aren't just squeaking by. Their QB looks truly ELITE unlike those teams. Gonzo and Campbell look like building block players are critical positions. The cap situation is good now and into the future. This doesn't feel artificial or fluky at all.

And there are no dominant teams .

The only team which looks more well rounded than us is rams .

We are weak in pass rush , red zone offense and defense. But each team has it's quirks. And I don't think we have pulled into our bag of tricks yet . I am sure Josh will do that in playoffs to motigate some offensive weakness and with much needed rest and Milton williams coming back we should be good for our post season run . We would have built our depth really well by giving them opportunities in these last 4-5 weeks.

 

[Rob0729]

The Pats were fortunate to have nearly every offseason move click or be an absolute homerun. There was really no way to expect all this unless you are an eternal optimist or a homer.

Most of their free agents have met or even far exceeded expectations. Few people thought Milton Williams would live up to his contract (even people who loved the move), but he has. Diggs is playing like he was never injured. Guys like Tonga and Chaisson seemed like nothing moves, but have been solid starters. People thought the LB corp was going to be a disaster, but Spillane, Elliss, Chaisson, and Gibbens have all played really well. Morgan Moses has stayed healthy. Bradbury has played better than expected. This free agent class reminds me of 2001 or 2003.

Almost every draft pick hit this year. The only draft pick draft in the first six rounds that hasn't at least been a contributor is Swinson. There are three starters from this draft class (Campbell, Wilson, and Woodson) and all are playing really well. Henderson is coming on. Williams is scoring a TD or two. Farmer is an underrated draft pick.

Also, Maye has developed far faster any could have expected. He is playing like a veteran with five or more years of experience. He has already exceeded most people's ceiling of what he could be.

And add several players who were here that no one thought much of are playing really well most notably Boutte. But Lowe was solid since replacing Campbell and no one saw that coming.

It is normally a 2-3 year development process to rebuild a team. The Pats did far faster with an abnormally great offseason and a QB who is having an MVP caliber year when people didn't think he would have anyone to throw to going into the season. This isn't something people should have expected before the season because it rarely happens.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The Pats were fortunate to have nearly every offseason move click or be an absolute homerun. There was really no way to expect all this unless you are an eternal optimist or a homer.

Most of their free agents have met or even far exceeded expectations. Few people thought Milton Williams would live up to his contract (even people who loved the move), but he has. Diggs is playing like he was never injured. Guys like Tonga and Chaisson seemed like nothing moves, but have been solid starters. People thought the LB corp was going to be a disaster, but Spillane, Elliss, Chaisson, and Gibbens have all played really well. Morgan Moses has stayed healthy. Bradbury has played better than expected. This free agent class reminds me of 2001 or 2003.

Almost every draft pick hit this year. The only draft pick draft in the first six rounds that hasn't at least been a contributor is Swinson. There are three starters from this draft class (Campbell, Wilson, and Woodson) and all are playing really well. Henderson is coming on. Williams is scoring a TD or two. Farmer is an underrated draft pick.

Also, Maye has developed far faster any could have expected. He is playing like a veteran with five or more years of experience. He has already exceeded most people's ceiling of what he could be.

And add several players who were here that no one thought much of are playing really well most notably Boutte. But Lowe was solid since replacing Campbell and no one saw that coming.

It is normally a 2-3 year development process to rebuild a team. The Pats did far faster with an abnormally great offseason and a QB who is having an MVP caliber year when people didn't think he would have anyone to throw to going into the season. This isn't something people should have expected before the season because it rarely happens.

What you have called out is what good organizations do. Their high draft picks contribute. They do a good job in FA. The coaching staff develops the talent and determines how much they can contribute. The NEP did this very well from 2001-2016ish and spotty-to-****ty after that. The Eagles, Rams, and other teams who have good QB play also do this consistently.

Yes- they are fortunate but I wouldn't call it luck.

 

[Real fan 02]

Remember the people before the season who insisted this to be true? That it was silly to expect even a postseason bid this year, because this team was going to be a 3-5 year rebuild?

Welcome to 2025. You get the right QB, right coach. Anything can happen. This isn’t the John McKay era anymore. Rebuilds don’t take 5 years.

Absolutely correct. The NFL is a QB driven league. We have 19 years of evidence. Add in the HC and you more often than not become successful.

I was optimistic before the season started and felt we could see double digit wins..

 

[Real fan 02]

What you have called out is what good organizations do. Their high draft picks contribute. They do a good job in FA. The coaching staff develops the talent and determines how much they can contribute. The NEP did this very well from 2001-2016ish and spotty-to-****ty after that. The Eagles, Rams, and other teams who have good QB play also do this consistently.

Yes- they are fortunate but I wouldn't call it luck.

Agree. I myself was ready to call one of the FAs a bust. Davis... but I've changed that thinking. He's come on strong lately. We also have 3 rookies well 4 actually starters in borregales, Campbell, Woodson, Wilson. All playing well. Also Williams is also contributing and making plays.

Even veterans like Hawkins under the coaching and system have been playing well.

 

[203Pat]

I will admit I thought this team's ceiling was 9 wins, but I never bought into the "years to contend" or last year's nonsense about keeping Drake on the bench multiple years until we built the team up around him. This league has always been the haves vs the have-nots when it comes to QB, and we look to be lucky enough to be in the "have" camp in addition to finding the right coach.


As far as coaching goes, I think the biggest thing Vrabel has done is establish a culture. I don’t know how many players I have heard say it that this is one of the best, if not the best, locker rooms they have been a part of. Maye is one of the most humble, down-to-earth quarterbacks in the league, and Vrabel paired him with some newly added veterans who helped instill his message. The culture the last few years prior to Vrabel has been a complete mess. The receiver room could not act like adults for 5 minutes, and the coaching staff seemed completely lost. Then, of course, there was the whole mess Bill made driving Brady out of town, then a couple of years later icing out other coaches as well as his starting QB. I am just glad we have adults in charge again and a quarterback with a good attitude and some actual talent.

 

[Rob0729]

What you have called out is what good organizations do. Their high draft picks contribute. They do a good job in FA. The coaching staff develops the talent and determines how much they can contribute. The NEP did this very well from 2001-2016ish and spotty-to-****ty after that. The Eagles, Rams, and other teams who have good QB play also do this consistently.

Yes- they are fortunate but I wouldn't call it luck.

Even the best teams don't hit like this. Almost every move during the offseason was a hit or homerun. Even teams like the Eagles make really bad moves. They just have years of success to cover up those mistakes. It took years for the Eagles and the Rams to build their team. They are at the point that they only have to make several moves here and there to maintain being a contender.

But you look at teams like San Diego or the the Bengals and you will see a team with a top QB with horrible management who cannot build a team around them and they flounder.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Imagine if the Patriots did that trade that many suggested and had JJ McCarthy right now and the Vikings had Drake Maye.

We look like the last 3 years of Patriots football and are probably are closer to 2-11 right now than 11-2 and the Vikings are the best team in the NFL.

 

[palialka]

I think they knew it was a draft choice. I don’t know of any LT that they pursued.

Agreed…in hindsight, they were always going to draft a LT. It was just a matter of who and where in the first rd.

Pretty sure the Pats had inside info on where Carter and Hunter were going and were perfectly fine to sit at four and draft Campbell.

 

[palialka]

I sensed many on this board were doing this because they wanted to delay any possible disappointment that Maye could be a bust and the team would be ready to contend when the stack the roster with All Pro's.

The NFL has been designed for offensive players to succeed, so if Maye was any good, he would've shown us by now like he has. Guys like Sam Darnold who were terrible with the former teams rarely become respectable QB's. He's stacking two years in a row now with very good numbers.

It took Darnold a few years to finally shake off the “JETES ghosts” to show that he’s actually a good starting QB.

 

[Guts]

It took Darnold a few years to finally shake off the “JETES ghosts” to show that he’s actually a good starting QB.

and even then he reverts back to the old Jete Darnold at times but hes been solid

 

[Guts]

We are way ahead of what I thought would happen. I thought next year we would take the big step to contenders not necessarily this year.
We have the guy at QB which is what matters the most everything else is easy to solve compared to finding the QB.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Even the best teams don't hit like this. Almost every move during the offseason was a hit or homerun. Even teams like the Eagles make really bad moves. They just have years of success to cover up those mistakes. It took years for the Eagles and the Rams to build their team. They are at the point that they only have to make several moves here and there to maintain being a contender.

But you look at teams like San Diego or the the Bengals and you will see a team with a top QB with horrible management who cannot build a team around them and they flounder.

Good teams don't hit every year but it happens more often than not and always get something out of the draft and FA.

Chargers are not a horrible team. They are 19-10 with Harbaugh. Bengals need Burrow to play. With him they are 39-23-1

 

[palialka]

Winning games is good but my biggest worry/fear/concern if you can call it that is that we'd have a season like the Giants in 2022 or even us in 2021 where the record was good but it looked fluky.

The Giants in 2022 made the playoffs with Daniel Jones in Daboll's first year, but 8 of their 9 wins were 8 points or less. That's not to discredit those wins, because wins are wins, but it was obvious that team was fluky. Daniel Jones obviously still wasn't "good" and they just had a lot of close game luck to be blunt about it.

In 2021 with Mac Jones, we made mass FA signings to improve the baseline talent and then Mac Jones added some stability to the QB position. With the good coaching it was enough to beat up the cupcakes but get shredded by all the "real" teams most of the time.

Both those teams made the playoffs (NYG even won a game) so not to say those are bad seasons or not enjoyable as fans. But just bigger picture, those teams kind of just got themselves stuck in mediocrity. Make the playoffs and pick later even though your team is starving for top talent. With our schedule so weak, I was kind of "nervous" we'd do similar where we win some games but it just wasn't really sustainable. I put nervous in quotes because winning is good, but I think most will understand the nuance of what I'm saying.

Fortunately, this looks like a "real" playoff team. This doesn't feel fluky. They aren't just squeaking by. Their QB looks truly ELITE unlike those teams. Gonzo and Campbell look like building block players are critical positions. The cap situation is good now and into the future. This doesn't feel artificial or fluky at all.

I understand where you’re coming from. It’s normal to feel that way with a team that’s in its first year of ascension but there’s nothing “fluky” about this team.

We have the right HC and OC. We’ve drafted a franchise QB, a cornerstone LT and a lockdown CB…all of whom are still on their first contract. On top of that, we’ve hit on almost all of our FA signings and our draft (last season) with the current front office hopefully intact for years to come. I envision we’ll do well in FA and the draft for the foreseeable future.

Obviously no one knows the future for certain, but how could any Pats fan not be optimistic with the way things are stacked up for this team.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Imagine if the Patriots did that trade that many suggested and had JJ McCarthy right now and the Vikings had Drake Maye.

We look like the last 3 years of Patriots football and are probably are closer to 2-11 right now than 11-2 and the Vikings are the best team in the NFL.

If BB had been here he sure didn't sound too keen on Maye either

 

[Grogan14]

Nothing is guaranteed for the future and yes its possible next year with a much tougher schedule, everything might not look as rosie as it does now BUT:

1. We have a potential top tier franchise QB
2. We have great coach who connects with the players

Neither of these were sure things back in the summer......what an unexpected surprise

Even though we will not have premium draft picks in 26......
I expect more quality UFAs might be interested in coming to a team with 1 and 2 above
With a full year under their belt, I expect the front office will be better able to target gaps in the roster
All of our young players will have a year of experience under their belt and a 2nd year ;cap is possible


The future is so bright I have to wear shades