Drake Maye Sack Problem: Fix Release, or Fix Protection?

[Sect140]

Drakes development is a process that is just at the beginning. He is great at throwing the ball downfield, damn he is already top five as a long ball passer, I want the short game to come to him naturally and not forced on to him, next season we will be saying remember last year we were worried about his short passing game.

The sacks are a combination of things, short reads aren’t open yet, O-Line getting beat and Drake looking down field. The six sacks in the Browns game Drake had the ball in his hands for over four seconds.

 

[Ring 6]

Drakes development is a process that is just at the beginning. He is great at throwing the ball downfield, damn he is already top five as a long ball passer, I want the short game to come to him naturally and not forced on to him, next season we will be saying remember last year we were worried about his short passing game.

The sacks are a combination of things, short reads aren’t open yet, O-Line getting beat and Drake looking down field. The six sacks in the Browns game Drake had the ball in his hands for over four seconds.

No one should be worried about his short passing game it is equally outstanding.

People are trying to say he should take what is winning games for us and stop doing it so he can be Mr dink and dunk and throw checkdowns to avoid the rush.
It’s ridiculous.

 

[PatriotSpy]

What I just discovered that blows my mind is he's actually getting sacked more often this year than last. (Feel free to check my math on this.)

According to the stats at Pro Football Reference he was in for 681 snaps last year and got sacked 34 times, or a 5% sack rate. This year he's been in for 563 snaps and has the same number of sacks, 34 or a 6% sack rate. Over time that adds up.

When I first watched his highlights before he was drafted I thought to myself that he seems to be a guy who runs at the first sign of danger, which can make for some big plays but can also get you RGIII'd. I remember members of the Patriots community crapping all over a certain post Brady Patriots QB who shall remain nameless for doing the same thing, so I wonder if we can get some consistency here. Nick Cattles of Locked on Patriots believes that 2 of the sacks on Sunday were on Drake, but I'm too poor for All 22 so I don't know if that's true.

I counted 4. But I'm no expert and will not pretend to be one!

The line struggled against stunts and the blitz. Falcons watched the titans game where they got a free rusher from a corner blitz and did the same thing. A couple of weak side blitzes posed problems. These are correctible and I think overall, Maye has handled the blitz pretty well during his career so far.

One one of the sacks I found interesting was in the red zone. The falcons linebacker lined up right in front of diggs to the right of Maye. He then came down to the edge at the los and Maye was looking right at him presnap. That seamed to be a pretty easy pre snap read because if Maye started with Diggs, it would have been an easy touchdown with Digg's defender playing off. But it looks like his progression started to the left and did not look Digg's way so I wonder if he does not have leeway from Josh to make adjustments to his progression based off what he sees presnap.

Again, I'm not an expert. I'm just an armchair quarterback.

 

[PP2]

Points 1-10, I love Drake Maye, he knows his game, he knows what he's doing, and he's managing some pretty impressive games while getting sacked at historic rates,, but...

...what do you do about the sacks?

(or do you?)

Spoiler: Drake himself says "it's on me"

So, there's indecisiveness, there's protection, and there's failed escapes. I'll take the unlikeliest culprit first, protection.

This is a Myles Garrett sizzle reel from (we have to assume) a butt-hurt Brownies fan establishing that Myles Garrett won his part of the game sort of like how T.O. won his part of the super bowl once.


Anybody who can count Mississippis can see that there's plenty of protection to get him to 3.5 seconds, the oft-quoted league average, in most of these sack plays (I didn't quickly find an "all sacks" clip, but this takes us through 5 of them).

I invite folks to counter with clips of the line just getting beaten by the D, but that's not what happens here. He's getting 4+ & usually 5+ seconds before he has to deal with the sack.

Next, indecision. The good news is, this is coachable. Just get the ball out. This is pro football. There are really big fast guys paid a lot to eff up your highlight reel (or more generously, paid to mess up your desire to excel in service of the team.) Basically, Drake says this is the issue: Get the ball out faster. He's upside-down Brady: he does have that escapability and speed, and he sometimes spins it into gold. But sometimes it perhaps adds to overestimating time till sack.

It's a beautiful thing to have a sky-high completion percentage. It's a little ugly to pad it with sacks taken instead of incompletions out of bounds where called for.

Finally, there's "technical" sacks where the idea is to exploit his legs, whether on a designed run/option, or creating a run threat. That's a risk it helps the team to take, to an extent. But it is still the case that running QBs are at greater risk of injury, so I love every successful scamper, and none of them specifically look like cause for concern, but I hate seeing a high number of runs, because it only takes one bad one for us to be back to crossing our fingers and praying for the next Maye on draft day. Loved the 40-odd yard run against the Clots last season, where he climbed the pocket, saw daylight, tucked and ran. From that moment on, a defense has to play differently. Hated taking that much more fractional chance of injury.

This leads us to why it matters:
* Injury. Am I wrong that tendency to run raises the chance of injury?
* In-game decrements. It is undeniable that, for example, a throw out of bounds is significantly better than a 3-yard sack, especially at choice moments.
* Yes, with that arm, you dial up more long throws... what amount of erosion to the deep game do we get with insistence on quicker release?

And finally, the scariest part for the rest of the NFL...
If this is simple and coachable, how much better is Drake Maye when you can't slow him down, albeit slightly, with the high sack percentage?

I just woke up early and rather than do the sh!t I should be working on, thought I'd stir up some **** here.

Six sacks given up against the Browns, six against Atlanta, so yes, the line is getting whipped badly. They continue to have struggle picking up stunts, twists, and other scheme-busters that exploit inexperience and ill-suited protection. Everyone likes to beat up on the likes of Onwenu or the inexperience of the entire left side, but Bradbury who is best in zone is just as much of a liability. He is easily displaced at the 0 tech.

I for one don't know why McDaniels is so stubborn about sticking to max protect (a leftover from the BB tree) and slides so often. It could be that he feels it's too much for the linemen to fold block, for instance, or doesn't trust they can mirror effectively. He's just not really trusting anyone's smarts or athletics at this point. The Browns game has really exposed the line's weakness for the rest of the league to exploit. The line simply couldn't stop the cross-dog twists the Browns were throwing at them all game long with Garrett coming off the loops.

It's nice of Drake Maye to try to throw himself under the bus, but he's not responsible for most of those sacks. He, however, is responsible for stopping himself from trying to do too much or play hero ball.

 

[KCSVEN]

Since Bills and Bucs are only 2 teams left with a good pass rush the sacks the rest of the season will come down.

He needs to keep 2 hands on the ball when moving which he has done 90% of the time but needs to do 100% and avoid the fumbles.

He's not getting lit up on these sacks because he is moving so injury due to the number of sacks I don't believe is an extra concern.

He's second in the league in sack % per pass attempt. It is Too High.
However, Lamar Jackson is #1, Hurtz is #5. So not a death sentence to the offense.

Nice to know that even with an MVP type season he has room for improvement.

 

[gobesmug]

Those are also just the best defenses that have the personnel to make **** happen. Dunno if there's much discovery in "sack someone 5 times"; that'll generally rattle any QB play :/

It's like saying the Giants discovered a plan no one else thought of against the Pats in the SB. The plan was pretty straightforward: constantly generate pressure on the middle. It was a matter of personnel.

No but it shows that Maye needs to make better decisions when facing top defenses like that.

Especially as the game wears on the oline gets more tired, he needs to start looking for the quick out. The OP brought up a real point.

 

[borg]

Why do people insist on taking the guy who is playing like an MVP by being aggressive and try to turn him into Chad Pennington.

 

[Triumph]

Those are also just the best defenses that have the personnel to make **** happen. Dunno if there's much discovery in "sack someone 5 times"; that'll generally rattle any QB play :/

It's like saying the Giants discovered a plan no one else thought of against the Pats in the SB. The plan was pretty straightforward: constantly generate pressure on the middle. It was a matter of personnel.

Its a matter of playing coverage and making Maye hold the ball. Then not allowing him to do damage rushing.

Pittsburgh's defense was ranked low when the Pats played them. Clevelands defenses is ranked 17th. Atlanta 13th. None were top 10 so this best defense is all BS.

 

[Triumph]

No but it shows that Maye needs to make better decisions when facing top defenses like that.

Especially as the game wears on the oline gets more tired, he needs to start looking for the quick out. The OP brought up a real point.

Tampa is going to be a real challenge.

 

[Ring 6]

Playing afraid doesn’t prevent injuries.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Many of his sacks are for -3 yards or less, where he's become a runner moving forward and doesn't quite get back to the los. Those aren't really sacks imo, he's not taking a beating falling backward for an 8 yard loss. Whether the QB loses 3 or gains 3, those are mostly neutral plays, nothing to correct really.

There definitely are also cases where he takes too long and is sacked for a bigger loss, and he'll improve on that at least a little over time. Some of those are normal sacks that even a Mahomes or Allen experiences. But you can't just "throw it away" if you're in the pocket, it has to land in a safe spot without being intentional grounding.

Probably half of his INT's appeared to be the receiver breaking the wrong way. He's been fooled by defenders on a couple of others, but that happened even to Brady on occasion. A couple of others have been just poor accuracy, but overall his accuracy is off the charts.

Most of his fumbles have been very avoidable, just dumb plays that he'll clean up.

 

[yukon cornelius]

he's young, he's coming off a year where he tried to essentially do it all by himself, and he's got a touch of bledsoe/early tom brady in him......that extreme confidence that he can make the play, always - that causes him to hold the ball too long

brady eventually realized that an incompletion is the lesser of multiple evils, and that if he can live for another down without a loss or a TO, he CAN make the next play.......and that sometimes a punt is not the worst thing that can happen

maye will get there

 

[patfanken]

So, I guess some of you guys are desperate to turn Drake into Bo Nix? We are talking about a game where you can tear an ACL in a non-contact drill in PRACTICE. The best way to lower your injury risk is to play fearless and proactive football. I learned early on in football that it hurt a lot less when you were the "hittER" rather than the "hitEE"

Improve the OL, remember Wilson and Campbell will only continue to get better. Bradbury by all metrics has played well beyond expectations, and Moses is what he is. He's "solid" if flawed and that's what we needed at the time. Owenu is really the only disappointment, and he hasn't really sucked. He is just not as good as we hoped and definitely not living up to the level of his contract.

Drake can cut the number of sacks down by learning to escape a second earlier, or reading the field faster, or by recognizing the defense better, or any of a dozen other small details you only get better at with repetition and experience.

But let's remember this. The thing that makes Drake Maye magical is his ability to throw the ball 15-25 yds down field accurately and with pace. DO NOT take that away from him.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

All this back and forth makes me wonder what data we have on QBs being hurt on QB runs -- including designed runs and improvised runs. I know that introduces the definitional question. @patfanken says above that it hurts less to be the hitter than the hittee. I mean, sure, at a gut level... and we can all conjure up that favorite RB who makes the defense pay more than they can make him pay. But it's not like I saw Drake plow into Myles and knock the wind out of him. He's not that model of running QB, unless we mean running over a little corner in the secondary.

It's also weird that another guy here thinks that people are impugning Drake's accuracy? Not me. I did make the observation that you can look at the lack o' throwaways as a common antecedent to two unusual numbers: The sky-high accuracy, which I love, and the sack percentage, which I don't love.

Let's look at the Cleveland game stats. Stipulate an unproven variable, throw-awayable balls. Let's say he could find a way to safely "ground" (without penalty) on 3 of 6 sack downs. I said stipulate. This is to illustrate the numerical effect I am describing.

Drake went statistically bonkers that game, and I loved it. 18 for 24 (75% completions) for 3 TDs and 282 yards. Also 6 sacks for -37 yards.

let's focus on how this game would be affected if he could safely throw.away 3 of those 6 balls (on which he was sacked.) He ends up sacked 3 times. The rate declines, ipso facto, by 50%.

But his 18 for 24, for 75% completions, becomes 18 for 27, for 66.67% -- 2 completions out of 3 attempts, not 3 out of 4. That's still fantastic for our second-year messiah character, just not OMG high. Well, OMG when you look at where he is in his development.

My point is not whether it's good or bad to achieve that effect (although I do think it's good.)

My point is that there's a sneaky inherent common antecedent to a higher accuracy stat and a higher sack percentage.

Throw the ball away, and you both decrease accuracy (sad) and decrease decrements attending the increased sack rate. Drake's incredible accuracy prior to Atlanta (when he was just good, statistically), was boosted by the high sack number, because at least some of those sacks took away the opportunity for an incomplete pass.

By the way, throwing a very low number off interceptions also boosts accuracy in a much better way, but I've left it out to just focus on the relationship b/w the completion percentage and the sack percentage.

When you hear hoofbeats, look first for horses, not zebras. When you see outlier number in both sacks taken and accuracy, it's good to explore the mechanism empowering both.

That doesn't mean that Drakes inaccurate. It just means that the numbers correlate and that there's discoverable causation driving the correlation.

 

[n1997y]

Playing afraid doesn’t prevent injuries.

Playing smart helps prevent injuries.

 

[n1997y]

PITT - 5 sacks - 1 INT and 1 fumble.

Just as an interesting side note, Sunday PIT played the team with the best record in the NFL (at that time).

Result:

5 sacks, 3 INT, 4 team fumbles (3 lost) 3 by the QB (2 lost).

Quality of defense being faced might be as much a factor as quality of play by the offense.

 

[Ring 6]

Playing smart helps prevent injuries.

It’s not smart to turn Drake Maye into Checkdown Charlie

 

[Ring 6]

All this back and forth makes me wonder what data we have on QBs being hurt on QB runs -- including designed runs and improvised runs. I know that introduces the definitional question. @patfanken says above that it hurts less to be the hitter than the hittee. I mean, sure, at a gut level... and we can all conjure up that favorite RB who makes the defense pay more than they can make him pay. But it's not like I saw Drake plow into Myles and knock the wind out of him. He's not that model of running QB, unless we mean running over a little corner in the secondary.

It's also weird that another guy here thinks that people are impugning Drake's accuracy? Not me. I did make the observation that you can look at the lack o' throwaways as a common antecedent to two unusual numbers: The sky-high accuracy, which I love, and the sack percentage, which I don't love.

Let's look at the Cleveland game stats. Stipulate an unproven variable, throw-awayable balls. Let's say he could find a way to safely "ground" (without penalty) on 3 of 6 sack downs. I said stipulate. This is to illustrate the numerical effect I am describing.

Drake went statistically bonkers that game, and I loved it. 18 for 24 (75% completions) for 3 TDs and 282 yards. Also 6 sacks for -37 yards.

let's focus on how this game would be affected if he could safely throw.away 3 of those 6 balls (on which he was sacked.) He ends up sacked 3 times. The rate declines, ipso facto, by 50%.

But his 18 for 24, for 75% completions, becomes 18 for 27, for 66.67% -- 2 completions out of 3 attempts, not 3 out of 4. That's still fantastic for our second-year messiah character, just not OMG high. Well, OMG when you look at where he is in his development.

My point is not whether it's good or bad to achieve that effect (although I do think it's good.)

My point is that there's a sneaky inherent common antecedent to a higher accuracy stat and a higher sack percentage.

Throw the ball away, and you both decrease accuracy (sad) and decrease decrements attending the increased sack rate. Drake's incredible accuracy prior to Atlanta (when he was just good, statistically), was boosted by the high sack number, because at least some of those sacks took away the opportunity for an incomplete pass.

By the way, throwing a very low number off interceptions also boosts accuracy in a much better way, but I've left it out to just focus on the relationship b/w the completion percentage and the sack percentage.

When you hear hoofbeats, look first for horses, not zebras. When you see outlier number in both sacks taken and accuracy, it's good to explore the mechanism empowering both.

That doesn't mean that Drakes inaccurate. It just means that the numbers correlate and that there's discoverable causation driving the correlation.

You can’t coach him to give up on the plays that turned out poorly without the consequence of him giving up on the plays that turned out well. Thats the point. You either extend plays or you don’t, there isn’t a magic button to extend the ones that would turn out well and stop the ones that wouldn’t.

 

[signbabybrady]

All this back and forth makes me wonder what data we have on QBs being hurt on QB runs -- including designed runs and improvised runs. I know that introduces the definitional question. @patfanken says above that it hurts less to be the hitter than the hittee. I mean, sure, at a gut level... and we can all conjure up that favorite RB who makes the defense pay more than they can make him pay. But it's not like I saw Drake plow into Myles and knock the wind out of him. He's not that model of running QB, unless we mean running over a little corner in the secondary.

It's also weird that another guy here thinks that people are impugning Drake's accuracy? Not me. I did make the observation that you can look at the lack o' throwaways as a common antecedent to two unusual numbers: The sky-high accuracy, which I love, and the sack percentage, which I don't love.

Let's look at the Cleveland game stats. Stipulate an unproven variable, throw-awayable balls. Let's say he could find a way to safely "ground" (without penalty) on 3 of 6 sack downs. I said stipulate. This is to illustrate the numerical effect I am describing.

Drake went statistically bonkers that game, and I loved it. 18 for 24 (75% completions) for 3 TDs and 282 yards. Also 6 sacks for -37 yards.

let's focus on how this game would be affected if he could safely throw.away 3 of those 6 balls (on which he was sacked.) He ends up sacked 3 times. The rate declines, ipso facto, by 50%.

But his 18 for 24, for 75% completions, becomes 18 for 27, for 66.67% -- 2 completions out of 3 attempts, not 3 out of 4. That's still fantastic for our second-year messiah character, just not OMG high. Well, OMG when you look at where he is in his development.

My point is not whether it's good or bad to achieve that effect (although I do think it's good.)

My point is that there's a sneaky inherent common antecedent to a higher accuracy stat and a higher sack percentage.

Throw the ball away, and you both decrease accuracy (sad) and decrease decrements attending the increased sack rate. Drake's incredible accuracy prior to Atlanta (when he was just good, statistically), was boosted by the high sack number, because at least some of those sacks took away the opportunity for an incomplete pass.

By the way, throwing a very low number off interceptions also boosts accuracy in a much better way, but I've left it out to just focus on the relationship b/w the completion percentage and the sack percentage.

When you hear hoofbeats, look first for horses, not zebras. When you see outlier number in both sacks taken and accuracy, it's good to explore the mechanism empowering both.

That doesn't mean that Drakes inaccurate. It just means that the numbers correlate and that there's discoverable causation driving the correlation.

Very interesting analysis. And first I want to say point taken.

Next: there is a long held saying eat the sack and move onto the next play. Trying to avoid sacks to throw the ball away and save from losing yards can lead to mistakes and hits too. If you know a hits coming bracing for it and being in a defensive position is probably safer than trying to side step just to throw it away even if most times you completely avoid contact occasionally you'll put yourself in awkward positions.

The key is to just balance it all out. We obviously don't want to neuter his scrambling abilities. We also obviously want to limit the amount of hits he takes. And if just throwing a few balls away helps with this balance I think Drake will learn to do it. We just have to trust his instincts on when to do each and trust he'll learn these things along the way.

I definitely think there is not some magic formula to rushing attempts/throw aways that we can just set that makes it safer. Just have to be cognizant that throwing it away isn't necessarily bad.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I want Drake Maye to hold the ball and extend plays when he can break free from the defender and complete the pass downfield. BUT if he can't break free or the pass isn't there to complete I want him to throw it away or check it down.

Pretty simple concept, but in reality he isn't psychic to know automatically what the right move is every time. I think you kind of have to accept how he plays and live with the results. Asking Maye to be a checkdown Charlie probably isn't playing to his strengths.

He's taken some sacks in the red zone that I don't like. And sometimes defenses play a certain way that dictates more checkdowns and quick throws. I think situationally and against teams playing a certain way I'd like to see him shift his mindset, but overall I think we should accept that he's the kind of QB who is going to take some sacks to chase big plays and that's ok because he's good at making them.