I got this really interesting feed on my MSN browser today. It put out the supposition that using that top pick to find your QB of the future to turn your team's fortunes around, almost NEVER works out for the team who did the drafting. And then they started to go down the list of QB's. Although some have turned out to be great QB's (like Goff, Darnald, and Stafford) it's never for the team that drafted them and then they went to name a number of guys who have flourished for other teams.
Interestingly they even include CWilliams, JDaniels, Nix, and Pennix, saying the they are not sure things and point out stats and ratings for all of them that are pretty mediocre even though their teams are currently above .500. Like barely 60% passing completion rates for them all and rating in the 20's for passing efficiency.
There is one exception of course and he is never mentioned in the article because he is clearly the exception that proves the rule. Drake Make. HE is the reason along with guys like Manning, Luck, Elway that teams waste all those high picks hoping that it brings them a guy that turns their fortunes around. I didn't realize just how rarely it actually turns to work out.
BTW TJ Stroud LOOKED to be one too, (he has TWO playoff wins to his credit) but this year he's looked very ordinary this year and last night he looked just bad. It should be a cautionary tale for us. Your QB is only going to be as good and the people you put around him, both players and coaches. And the seeming greatness we are seeing NOW has no guarantees for the future. The Texans screwed around with their OL and Stroud is paying the price and it looked ugly last night.