Patriots Pregame Thread Week 5: Pats @ Buffalo

[Ross12]

NE’s upcoming schedule:

- Bills (4-0)
- Saints (0-4)
- Titans (0-4)
- Browns (1-3)
- Falcons (2-2)

 

[Kdo5]

NE’s upcoming schedule:

- Bills (4-0)
- Saints (0-4)
- Titans (0-4)
- Browns (1-3)
- Falcons (2-2)

Just take care of business where we should and the Pats will be 6-3 following that stretch. Then we have two wins against the Jets and probably another against the Dolphins.

 

[Nikolai]

The spread is there to get money on the Pats.

It's a winnable game in Buffalo. Last time I could say that was about....237 bottles ago.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Just take care of business where we should and the Pats will be 6-3 following that stretch. Then we have two wins against the Jets and probably another against the Dolphins.

3 straight road games starting with Buffalo.
I guess it's a bit of blessing that 2 of those are against the Saints and Titans, but still not easy to go on the road 3 weeks in a row.

 

[slash83]

Pound the rock, Bills defense has been leaky vs the run. Run the ball, stay ahead of the chains, minimize Allen’s opportunities, keep him off the field.

 

[GreenCow]

3 straight road games starting with Buffalo.
I guess it's a bit of blessing that 2 of those are against the Saints and Titans, but still not easy to go on the road 3 weeks in a row.

Saints and Titans are really bad football teams. Pats should have no problem there.

The next 5 games after the Bills are all easily winnable. However the Falcons are a better team than a lot of people recognize.

 

[jmt57]

Buffalo hasn't lived up to Vegas bettor's expecations/hopes/fantasies very often this year.

Week 1: home vs Ravens, favored by 1½ - failed to cover (Buf 41, Balt 40)
Week 2: at Jete, favored by only 6 (why so low?) - covered (Buf 30, NYJ 10)
Week 3: home vs Miami, favored by 12 - failed to cover (Buf 31, Miami 21)
Week 4: home vs Saints, favored by 12½ - failed to cover (Buf 31, Saints 19)*

* (Some sites had a lower line, may have been a push)



Bottom line is that Buffalo has not lived up to expectations thus far.
Is their won-loss record a façade?

In week four the Saints - a team I had considered to be the worst all offseason, a throne that Tennessee now holds - was within two in the fourth quarter, despite settling for a FG in the red zone, when a TD would have given them the lead.



The preseason 2025 AFC heavyweights (Bills, Ravens, Chiefs) all look very beatable right now, four weeks in.

Colts and Jaguars are doing better than expected, let's see if that can last.

 

[GreenCow]

Buffalo hasn't lived up to Vegas bettor's expecations/hopes/fantasies very often this year.

Week 1: home vs Ravens, favored by 1½ - failed to cover (Buf 41, Balt 40)
Week 2: at Jete, favored by only 6 (why so low?) - covered (Buf 30, NYJ 10)
Week 3: home vs Miami, favored by 12 - failed to cover (Buf 31, Miami 21)
Week 4: home vs Saints, favored by 12½ - failed to cover (Buf 31, Saints 19)*

Bottom line is that Buffalo has not lived up to expectations thus far.
Is their won-loss record a façade?

The Bills have won a bunch of games by double digits, but they didn’t meet some arbitrary number that vegas determined and therefore they have not lived up to expectations?

That’s an interesting take.

Bet 99% of the league would love to be winning their games by 10+ points each whether they cover or not.

 

[jmt57]

The Bills have won a bunch of games by double digits, but they didn’t meet some arbitrary number that vegas determined and therefore they have not lived up to expectations?

That’s an interesting take.

Bet 99% of the league would love to be winning their games by 10+ points each whether they cover or not.

I hear you, but a genuine super bowl contender doesn't hang their hat on beating the 2025 Jets, 2025 Dolphins, or 2025 Jets.


That's the equivalent of some SEC powerhouse beating Long Island University, Babson College, and Sister Mary's School for the Blind.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Saints and Titans are really bad football teams. Pats should have no problem there.

The next 5 games after the Bills are all easily winnable. However the Falcons are a better team than a lot of people recognize.

Maybe getting skunked 30-0 by the Panthers just last week has something to do with it?

 

[DaBruinz]

Wow, that's a big line.

Might be worth a hundo note..

 

[BobDigital]

Well it's pretty straight forward. Bills play their A game and we lose. They play their B or C game, we're in business maybe.

The Pats D needs to keep them under 30 to have a chance. It's possible. Will they? I don't know. Some teams have to this year.

As far as their D a lot depends on health. They have some banged up guys, particularly on the D Line. Given how our OL has played this year that means Maye should have time.

In any case while a win would be nice, and is possible, I'd be happy just having a solid game vs a very good team.

 

[DarrylS]

I channel Steve Sabol, "on any given Sunday"...
As we trend upwards, my Pats positivity increases exponentially..

 

[PP2]

Not a ton of respect for the Pats by the oddsmakers. Listed as +10.5 underdogs. Understandable I guess.

Opening NFL Week 5 Odds and Betting Lines: Rams Laying -3.5 vs 49ers

Get the opening NFL Week 5 odds with point spreads, Over/Unders, and football moneylines for every matchup starting on Oct. 2, 2025.

www.covers.com

If I know Vrabel, he has made 100 photocopies of that line and has posted it on every door inside their building.

 

[Real fan 02]

It might be the almost 40 losses since 2000

Gonzo on the TE, Davis on Coleman, Marcus on Shakir.. take away the tight end. You affect thier offense.

 

[PatsFan2]

Gonzo on the TE, Davis on Coleman, Marcus on Shakir.. take away the tight end. You affect thier offense.

I think we'll be able to keep up: I think Buffalo is going have their hands full with H Henry.

 

[PatsFan2]

Gonzo on the TE, Davis on Coleman, Marcus on Shakir.. take away the tight end. You affect thier offense.

Diggs in the Slot should Open up our Offense: really hope T Henderson breaks a couple he's due.

 

[Real fan 02]

Diggs in the Slot should Open up our Offense: really hope T Henderson breaks a couple he's due.

Absolutely we have been waiting for this. Have to give Vrabel credit for adjusting and putting playmakers in position to best be effective. Pop will likely be a role player now. Get Chism active and see what he can do to provide Buffalo a different look. The impact of gonzo was felt on defense yesterday.

 

[Real fan 02]

I think we'll be able to keep up: I think Buffalo is going have their hands full with H Henry.

Our TEs are pretty good for older players. Buffalo offense is cook and the TEs primarily. We have a top 5 run defense should be able to handle cook. Gonzo on kincaid should be the match up. Davis on Coleman.

 

[Real fan 02]

Well it's pretty straight forward. Bills play their A game and we lose. They play their B or C game, we're in business maybe.

The Pats D needs to keep them under ,30 to have a chance. It's possible. Will they? I don't know. Some teams have to this year.

As far as their S a lot depends on health. They have some banged up guys, particularly on the D Line. Given how the OL has played this year that means Maye should have time.

In any case while I win would be nice, and is possible, I'd be happy just having a solid game vs a very good team.

That's a fair assessment thier best defensive player is ed Oliver he's been sidelined. I think most NE fans are just looking for the team to be competitive and not beat themselves. I don't have us winning but showing Buffalo we can run with them is what will resonate throughout the team.