"Not Worth The 4th Pick"

[imahobgoblin]

Chad Graff, is that you?

I have no idea who that is.

 

[zimmy]

I’m really not convinced by Warren at 4. He is apparently already 24 years old and will be 25 during the season. You wonder how much development he has compared to some of these young guys. Armand Membou and Mykel Williams are both just 20 for example.

If we can’t trade down my short list for 4 is currently Graham, Membou, Walker and Williams.

 

[Hyped]

I have no idea who that is.

Pats beat writer over at The Athletic. This morning he laid out the same exact scenario as what I bolded in your post.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Pats beat writer over at The Athletic. This morning he laid out the same exact scenario as what I bolded in your post.

I have never heard of him. I don't subscribe to the Athletic. He sounds very smart though. lol.

 

[BobDigital]

I do think we’re out of the Hunter/Carter stakes. It only takes one, but Shedeur is not getting good feedback as a top 3 pick right now.

Well the fact is, what are your options? A lot of bad teams wanted the first pick this year but only 1 got it. Tank for next year? Tanking may not even put you in the top 3. It didn't for multiple teams this year.

And how many QBs are you really high on that come out? Is your plan to wait for a year with 4-5 great QB prospects? Those are rare.

The fact is you are in position to pick a decent prospect now and may not be in position to again next year or the year after or the year after that. For all this talk downplaying Sanders, the dude can play and has a legit shot to be good. Yeah there will be some crap you'll have to deal with, so what?

Personally I don't buy that Sanders is falling out of the top 3. Everyone believes this is a class with only 2 QBs who have a chance to be good starters.... If teams think they can wait to get them in the 2nd or trade up into the first to get them from a high second they are delusional. He won't fall to them. They either pick him with their top pick or he's gone and just missed a fairly rare chance to take a shot to get their guy.

The Pats were lucky as hell to get Maye... That was a draft loaded with really good QBs and even in a QB rich draft it went QB QB QB with 3 more in the top 12 picks. Teams have wised up I think. You aren't going to ever see a high first round grade QB fall late in the first again like Rodgers did. Doesn't mean you can't get lucky and pick up a great QB late... but not of the guys who are universally believed to be really good prospects are ever falling that far again.

At the end of the day a QB needy team that passes on Sanders is a fool IMO. Cause the odds of you getting that once in a decade prospect at QB is low, and even if you get them (like when the Jags got Lawrence) you never know for sure. Take your shot on a guy while you can. Don't waste a year looking for a better one.

 

[PatsFan2]

The Deion Sanders factor is a real thing. Whoever drafts that kid has to put up with Deion's bullchit as well. And you have to figure you're signing a long term lease agreement, because his father was a mercenary.

There's a lot of buyer beware to me. I am glad the Pats got Maye last year.

Prime Time's BS really Steve: I like Deion as a person and player and think he raised so fine boys and girl.

 

[PatsFan2]

I think this is where my big board at the 4 pick ends up. This is subject change depending on what happens in FA obviously.

Tier 1

Abdul Carter
Travis Hunter

Tier 2

Armand Membou
Shemar Stewart (I could see myself jumping him over Membou but not yet)
Tyler Warren

Tier 3

Mason Graham (would jump up to tier two if we get bad news on Barmore)
Will Campbell
Tet McMillan
Colston Loveland

Tier 4

Ashton Jeanty
Jihaad Campbell
Jahdae Barron

Tiers 3&4 are only relevant in the case of a trade down.

Membou @ 4 too rich for my blood.

 

[bakes781]

Not to beat a dead horse lol buuuut....

 

[AQPE]

Not to beat a dead horse lol buuuut....

Third time that I know of that you posted this. That horse is not just beaten, it’s ready to be served somewhere that eating it is acceptable.

Stewart got a hurry or two but zero (0) sacks or hits. He did better against Membou but as was typical for him got no sacks or hits in that matchup. Going on memory here but I think Banks did even better against Stewart than Campbell or Membou. Neither Simmons, Ersery, nor Conerly faced Stewart.

It would be more informative to see some of the plays for those other prospects against Stewart or other guys in the current first round conversation, or against guys like Verse or Will Anderson that they went up against that were first rounders already. But that isn’t your objective here I guess. I can’t understand why this particular kid is so bothersome to you.

Hey @bakes781 I love ya anyway, you make great contributions here and I am mostly just yanking your chain, my kid can tell you all about how much I enjoy that but only do it for those I enjoy!

 

[bakes781]

Third time that I know of that you posted this. That horse is not just beaten, it’s ready to be served somewhere that eating it is acceptable.

Stewart got a hurry or two but zero (0) sacks or hits. He did better against Membou but as was typical for him got no sacks or hits in that matchup. Going on memory here but I think Banks did even better against Stewart than Campbell or Membou. Neither Simmons, Ersery, nor Conerly faced Stewart.

It would be more informative to see some of the plays for those other prospects against Stewart or other guys in the current first round conversation, or against guys like Verse or Will Anderson that they went up against that were first rounders already. But that isn’t your objective here I guess. I can’t understand why this particular kid is so bothersome to you.

Campbell is the consensus #1OL so that's why lol but sure....

No sign of Will in this clip.



I don't normally have time to make my own videos. I just share them so don't kill the messenger!

Watching Texas vs Texas A&M now

 

[bakes781]

So much for that...Banks gets hurt on this play midway thru the 1st. That was Scourton who Banks was blocking that time.



The one play where Stewart lined up with Banks they sent the TE Helm over to doubleteam.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Teteroia MacMillen.

 

[State]

Mason Graham has a motor and moves very well powerful too. He can pack on some more pounds.

Or they can take the dominant TE from Penn State who is already physically where he needs to be to thrive.

 

[captain stone]

This is a phrase I keep seeing in relation to almost every prospect available at 4 outside of Carter and Hunter and it relates to positional value. A LG isn't worth the 4th pick. An undersized DT isn't worth the 4th pick. A RB, a TE, a slow WR etc. However, the phrase becomes redundant if no-one is worth the 4th pick because without the guarantee of a trade down, someone has to be taken at 4. I agree that the traditional value of the 4th pick isn't there this year. What we have to decide is who is most worth the 4th pick?

I did this on the main board but it should really be in the draft forum. I broke down the possible picks at 4 into three categories and because, following Campbell and Graham's measurements, I think things are now much less clear, I've thrown a pretty wide net.

Category One: Potential Fallers

Mason Graham - Weight, arm length and deep class
Will Campbell - Arm length and wingspan
Tet McMillan - Speed

Category Two: The High Ceiling, Low floor Prospects

Shemar Stewart - Lack of production
Mykel Williams - Ditto
Jalen Walker - Is he a tweener?
Marcus Golden - Undersized, relatively low production

Category Three: High floor, Low Relative Value

Armand Membou - RT only?
Tyler Warren - Positional value
Ashton Jeanty - Ditto
Jahdae Barron - Late riser and positional value
Jihaad Campbell - Ditto

Hopefully Carter or Hunter fall to 4 and render this thread moot. Or hopefully we get the trade down and the value proposition becomes less of an issue. However, if neither happens, I find myself leaning to category three. All are excellent prospects who might not justify a 4th overall pick in normal years (this is not a normal year) but will significantly enhance the prospects of this team and raise the floor.

So which category are you?

None of the Above.

Picking a player - Any player - at #4 overall is simply Not an option for me.

 

[manxman2601]

None of the Above.

Picking a player - Any player - at #4 overall is simply Not an option for me.

That's easy to say until no-one wants to trade up with you.

You would trade down if Carter or Hunter are on the board? I could just about understand Carter provided the haul was good enough, but it would be madness to trade down with Hunter on the board.

 

[State]

 

[manxman2601]

Probably the 3rd best prospect in the draft. If he was going to be the pick, I think they should have done more on the OL but I won't be shedding tears if he is the pick.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

nightmare scenario
I don’t understand why considering BPA a rb is possibly the best pick
For rb you need to consider the state of the o line and ir the o line is really good any rb out there can put up1000 yards season

 

[manxman2601]

nightmare scenario
I don’t understand why considering BPA a rb is possibly the best pick
For rb you need to consider the state of the o line and ir the o line is really good any rb out there can put up1000 yards season

you're talking about value rather than BPA. On a strictly BPA basis (ie grade), there's a very real case that Jeanty is just that at 4. BVA (best value available) is another matter. There's no way that drafting someone who could be one of the best RBs in the league is a "nightmare scenario". I can see the arguments against it but he's just too good to be considered a nightmare.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Probably the 3rd best prospect in the draft. If he was going to be the pick, I think they should have done more on the OL but I won't be shedding tears if he is the pick.

Tyron Smith is still available as a 1 year LT if necessary. Smith plus Trapilo is a good stop gap, a huge improvement over Lowe. 1st round LT in 2026 works.

We have a lot of IOL that Marrone can work with. Strange, Andrews, Sow, and even Wallace were injured last year and should be healthy. We added Moses and Bradbury. We can't sign and draft to fill every hole in 1 year.