2025 NFL Draft Order Tracker (Tracking the Patriots Draft Position)

[One-If-By-Sea]

The Patriots are currently now at 3 and with the raiders playing the jags and the Giants playing the colts, it's entirely possible they can get the number 1.

That's assuming our SOS dictates so.

With that said, do we need Bills to win their games or to start losing some? How does that affect our positioning?

The tiebreaker for the teams that are tied is strength of schedule, listed as SOS. The team with the weakest SOS picks first among the tied teams. Right now our SOS is very weak. The SOS is updated every week, so for the next 4 weeks we need all of the teams we played this year to lose. That makes our SOS weaker if our opponents have worse records. If the Jets, Dolphins and/or the Bills lose that is better because we play/ played them twice.

 

[festy1986]

The tiebreaker for the teams that are tied is strength of schedule, listed as SOS. The team with the weakest SOS picks first among the tied teams. Right now our SOS is very weak. The SOS is updated every week, so for the next 4 weeks we need all of the teams we played this year to lose. That makes our SOS weaker if our opponents have worse records. If the Jets, Dolphins and/or the Bills lose that is better because we play/ played them twice.

I don't understand the logic of teams losing being better though. Wouldn't it make more sense for the team with the hardest schedule to pick first in a tie breakfast scenario? Not the team with the easiest schedule.

NFL is weird

 

[PatsFan2]

I want us to finish no lower than #3: it's obvious what both the Raiders and Giants need. Travis Hunter please.

 

[Ian]

I don't understand the logic of teams losing being better though. Wouldn't it make more sense for the team with the hardest schedule to pick first in a tie breakfast scenario? Not the team with the easiest schedule.

NFL is weird

I think the idea behind it is if the team with the worst record still lost that many games against lesser teams, they're weaker than the teams that lost against better competition. Or, at least, that's how I interpret it.

 

[Ian]

Patriots obviously sitting at #3 overall this morning after being idle this week:

2025 NFL Draft Order

2025 NFL Draft Order Tracker if the Season Ended Today.

www.patsfans.com

 

[festy1986]

I think the idea behind it is if the team with the worst record still lost that many games against lesser teams, they're weaker than the teams that lost against better competition. Or, at least, that's how I interpret it.

Perhaps but it also rewards a team for having a easier schedule vs a team who had the same record but had to play against hypothetical better teams.

I'm not complaining though, apparently the Patriots have had the second easiest schedule this year lol.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

One good thing under the radar is Atlanta losing games recently. Good chance they won't make the playoffs, which will improve their 3rd rounder that we hold to somewhere around pick 80.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I don't understand the logic of teams losing being better though. Wouldn't it make more sense for the team with the hardest schedule to pick first in a tie breakfast scenario? Not the team with the easiest schedule.

NFL is weird

Yes, but the earlier pick in the draft means the team was worse. Even though people say it is a higher pick in the draft, it is really an earlier pick. The worse or weakest team is the one that played the easiest schedule and still lost. A team that played a harder schedule and lost the same amount of games is a better team so they pick later, not earlier. It is kind of like golf where the lowest score wins.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I'm not complaining though, apparently the Patriots have had the second easiest schedule this year lol.

The year is not over so the strength of schedule is still changing. The Pats have had the 2nd easiest schedule this year at this point in the schedule. The SOS rankings could change as the season finishes up. Maybe you meant that.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I want us to finish no lower than #3: it's obvious what both the Raiders and Giants need. Travis Hunter please.

Yes you want us to finish lower than #3! #1 and #2 are lower than #3. Haha. It is like golf, the lower score wins.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

The year is not over so the strength of schedule is still changing. The Pats have had the 2nd easiest schedule this year at this point in the schedule. The SOS rankings could change as the season finishes up. Maybe you meant that.

Wish there were a simulator for this, as it does change all the time.

Any loss by a team on our schedule is good for our SOS, so for example the Chargers losing to KC was good, except that for a game between 2 other AFCE teams (like the Miami-Jets game yesterday), the loss by one is offset by the win by the other.

Does anyone know if a loss by an AFCE team to a non-AFCE team is more valuable than a loss by a non-divisional opponent who's on our schedule? Does it count twice/double because we face them twice? e.g., is our SOS better off because the Bills lost to the Rams yesterday instead of the Rams losing?

 

[patsfaninpa]

I don't understand the logic of teams losing being better though. Wouldn't it make more sense for the team with the hardest schedule to pick first in a tie breakfast scenario? Not the team with the easiest schedule.

NFL is weird

No. The whole point of the reverse order is to help poor teams. Losing to a good team isn’t always a bad thing. Losing to lesser teams is. The team that played the tougher scheyisnthe better team.

 

[festy1986]

No. The whole point of the reverse order is to help poor teams. Losing to a good team isn’t always a bad thing. Losing to lesser teams is. The team that played the tougher scheyisnthe better team.

And how do we know the teams playing the harder teams wouldn't also lose to the easy teams?

 

[hornetfb85]

To keep Buffalo motivated, we need them to lose to Detroit, then Baltimore to win out (NYG, Pit at home, Hou, Cle). Baltimore gets to 12-5, Buffalo would need to win last week to get to 13 since Balt won the head to head. Pitt going 3-1, but a tougher schedule would help too.

 

[Ring 6]

Perhaps but it also rewards a team for having a easier schedule vs a team who had the same record but had to play against hypothetical better teams.

I'm not complaining though, apparently the Patriots have had the second easiest schedule this year lol.

That’s the point. They are trying but determine the worst team, and rank them in worst order. If they have the sane record the team that played the weaker schedule is worse by inference. The entire point is to reward the bad team

 

[Ring 6]

And how do we know the teams playing the harder teams wouldn't also lose to the easy teams?

Are you serious?

 

[Ring 6]

Patriots obviously sitting at #3 overall this morning after being idle this week:

2025 NFL Draft Order

2025 NFL Draft Order Tracker if the Season Ended Today.

www.patsfans.com

Does the strength of schedule number count all 17 opponents on the schedule or only the ones that have already been played?

 

[festy1986]

Are you serious?

You have all the answers. We all noticed it.

So tell me kind sir, how do we know that a team with the same record as another, who lost to a 4 and 13 team, wouldn't also lose to the a team who is 3 and and 14, like the team with the same record as them did?

With such a condescending, stupid and simplisric response, I expect a real answer that is so convincing that I would have no choice but to immediately capitulate and apologize.

Do not disappoint.

 

[KCSVEN]

Does the strength of schedule number count all 17 opponents on the schedule or only the ones that have already been played?

Counts all 17

 

[KCSVEN]

Wish there were a simulator for this, as it does change all the time.

Any loss by a team on our schedule is good for our SOS, so for example the Chargers losing to KC was good, except that for a game between 2 other AFCE teams (like the Miami-Jets game yesterday), the loss by one is offset by the win by the other.

Does anyone know if a loss by an AFCE team to a non-AFCE team is more valuable than a loss by a non-divisional opponent who's on our schedule? Does it count twice/double because we face them twice? e.g., is our SOS better off because the Bills lost to the Rams yesterday instead of the Rams losing?

AFC East teams count double. Bills losing was more beneficial than if Rams lost. When you get down to about 2 weeks it's easy to do an Excel spreadsheet to calculate the options, since many games are in the division at that point many don't matter. You can do it now but probably not worth the time and effort.