Vegas' 2024 Over/Under Win Total for Pats: 4.5

[Hugepatsfan]

There's no way the Pats win more games this season than in 2023 with Barmore gone, Judon possibly traded and an arguably worse roster than last season with a worse coaching staff. That 4 win season would've dropped to at least 3 had Rodgers played.

The difference between Bill and Mayo is that Bill had expectations to get the team back to the playoffs in 2000. The team massively regressed which was why the pressure was on in 2001. Mayo just needs to look competent and will exceed expectations if he pulls at least 5 wins out of his ass. If he does worse than Bill in 2023, media and fans will also want him gone.

This is a 2-4 win roster.

I agree the team will be worse. That doesn't necessarily have to reflect in the record. They were 4-13 last year, but 8 games were by one score. Ball bounces differently in a couple of games and they could have been 6, 7, 8 wins. That's not to say the team was actually better than their record, just highlighting how fine the line can be between win and loss.

There's no way anyone should expect Mayo to be as good of a head coach or defensive strategist as BB. AVP isn't as accomplished as an OC as O'Brien, even if a scheme change was warranted. Brissett might be better "vibes" than Mac Jones but he sucks as a starter. OL still horrendous, arguably worse without Trent Brown. WRs have some encouraging developmental guys but not sure that translates to a ton of on-field improvement right away. Defense probably a bit better if it's Judon/Gonzo in and Barmore out but overall it's pretty static on that unit. All that with a tougher schedule.

Hard for me to not think we're worse this year as a team. But when you're talking about such few wins, there's just such variability. We'll probably be the underdogs in every game we play. On paper, we should probably go 0-17, but we all know that's unrealistic. We'll steal some games vs. teams better than us on paper, but there's no exact science of if that's 2 games, 3 games, 4 games or 5 games.

 

[captain stone]

Not to mention both the new HC and DC have never called a play in the NFL.

The WRs coach has never coached NFL WRs, just college ones… The OLCs are also relative neophytes… and I still don’t trust the S & CB coaches…

 

[Ring 6]

I bet the over. For me it's a no loose bet, Pats go over and I win a little cash and if they go under we are looking at a top 10 pick.

Wouldn’t the under be the no lose bet, since if you lose the bet they had a better season?

 

[Ring 6]

The WRs coach has never coached NFL WRs, just college ones… The OLCs are also relative neophytes… and I still don’t trust the S & CB coaches…

Pellegrino may be the best coach we have.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Wouldn’t the under be the no lose bet, since if you lose the bet they had a better season?

With the over/under at 4.5, if you take the under then you can lose the bet still with no silver lining. A 5 win season is, for all intents and purposes, no more entertaining for me than a 4 win team. For them going over 4.5 wins and it to be any sort of "silver lining" outcome, I think they'd have to seriously push for the playoffs. That seems too hard for me to wrap my head around with this roster lol. If they go over, the more reasonable outcome is a 5-7 win team that still isn't fun to watch and now just picks later than ideal.

 

[captain stone]

Pellegrino may be the best coach we have.

It’s our RBs coach.

 

[Ring 6]

It’s our RBs coach.

Doubt that but its not exactly a battle of titans

 

[h0c2000]

With the extended preseason over, this team makes 5 wins feel like climbing Everest.

 

[Brick27]

Seeing them at 5.5 now on DraftKings.

The idea of going 5-8 the rest of the way sounds nuts

 

[sb1]

Standing by my 5 win prediction.

 

[h0c2000]

Seeing them at 5.5 now on DraftKings.

The idea of going 5-8 the rest of the way sounds nuts

The team that played Sunday regressed after having 10 days off after that **** show in New Jersey. 4-9 seems almost impossible.

 

[h0c2000]

Seeing them at 5.5 now on DraftKings.

The idea of going 5-8 the rest of the way sounds nuts

Looks like the current line is back to 4.5 wins. 3-6 should be plausible if Maye comes back healthy and they play with heart like they did Sunday. Losing to Will Levis or Mason Rudolph though would not be a good way to start.