The optimistic case for Mac Jones

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Wozzy says "A weapon is only as good as the QB's ability to get him the ball" and pumps up QBs (to pump up N'Keal Harry.) Then when a QB like Mac is struggling, he pushes the onus to the receivers and coaches. Typical.

 

[Ian]

I think they've basically been as good as their players. Bill's splits with/without Brady correlate with this. Carroll might be a little less correlated (especially this last season with G. Smith) but that Seahawks team was loaded on a defense and had an above average QB in Wilson.

People say Carroll was such a terrible coach in New England, but you could also look at it as a failure by personnel with Grier. Yeah, it was a downward spiral from 10 - 9 - 8 wins, but then Belichick took over and they won 5. I assume Belichick was the same coach he was in 2000 than he was in 2001, and after that 0-2 start, things started to change. I just can't imagine that coincidentally Bill grew super powers of intellect.

That 5-11 season was more about guys not buying in coming off of the Carroll era, having had it pretty easy. So Belichick purged a lot of that locker room the following offseason, much like Parcells did when he got here.

I would say all things being equal, Belichick did a better job than Carroll in their respective stints both Carroll here, and Belichick in Cleveland. Belichick had an unreal staff and built a playoff team with a pretty good roster that probably would have been really good had the rug not gotten pulled out from underneath them with the team getting relocated. The documentary about that whole thing was eye-opening, and people look at the win/loss record without any of the context.

Carroll never really had control here because, as you mentioned, Grier was part of the equation, and the players played Pete against him during that process. I'm sure that's why Belichick let Grier go within days of getting hired.

That's why I said Carroll got a raw deal, but he never really fought for control, either.

I was there in 98/99/2000 and the environments were completely different. He was a rah-rah kind of guy, certainly didn't command the room the same way Bill did. Although, he was a super nice guy. I remember he also called me over one time after I went to pick up my tape recorder to ask where I was from, right after a press conference, and talked to me for a minute or so, which I always thought was cool. Good person, just wasn't ready for the chaos/egos he had to deal with there.

But like Bill, he learned from it, and good for him for the run he went on in Seattle. And more importantly, it was nice to see him overcome Wilson and get a little recognition last year even though they came up short. Certainly, nothing negative to say about him.

 

[crawhammer]

That's why I said Carroll got a raw deal, but he never really fought for control, either.

Bledsoe absolutely torpedoed the 1999 season. Pre-bye the team was 6-2 and Bledsoe had 13 TDs and 4 INTs. Post-bye they were 2-6 and Bledsoe had 6 TDs and 17 INTs. That's 2.1 INTs per game. There isn't a coach in the history of life that could overcome that degree of incompetent QB play.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

That 5-11 season was more about guys not buying in coming off of the Carroll era, having had it pretty easy. So Belichick purged a lot of that locker room the following offseason, much like Parcells did when he got here.

I would say all things being equal, Belichick did a better job than Carroll in their respective stints both Carroll here, and Belichick in Cleveland. Belichick had an unreal staff and built a playoff team with a pretty good roster that probably would have been really good had the rug not gotten pulled out from underneath them with the team getting relocated. The documentary about that whole thing was eye-opening, and people look at the win/loss record without any of the context.

Carroll never really had control here because, as you mentioned, Grier was part of the equation, and the players played Pete against him during that process. I'm sure that's why Belichick let Grier go within days of getting hired.

That's why I said Carroll got a raw deal, but he never really fought for control, either.

I was there in 98/99/2000 and the environments were completely different. He was a rah-rah kind of guy, certainly didn't command the room the same way Bill did. Although, he was a super nice guy. I remember he also called me over one time after I went to pick up my tape recorder to ask where I was from, right after a press conference, and talked to me for a minute or so, which I always thought was cool. Good person, just wasn't ready for the chaos/egos he had to deal with there.

But like Bill, he learned from it, and good for him for the run he went on in Seattle. And more importantly, it was nice to see him overcome Wilson and get a little recognition last year even though they came up short. Certainly, nothing negative to say about him.

Good post, Ian. Thanks for the story...I always love to hear first-hand experience like this.

I think a lot of people would say Carroll never changed, though, and that he's still a rah-rah kind of guy, same as before. Difference being a team will win a lot of games with Wilson, Lynch, Bennett, Wagner, Sherman, and Thomas.

I completely agree that Grier was a big problem, and I've always felt one of the best things about BB is being the coach/GM in one role (at least that worked for many years.)

 

[Ian]

Bledsoe absolutely torpedoed the 1999 season. Pre-bye the team was 6-2 and Bledsoe had 13 TDs and 4 INTs. Post-bye they were 2-6 and Bledsoe had 6 TDs and 17 INTs. That's 2.1 INTs per game. There isn't a coach in the history of life that could overcome that degree of incompetent QB play.

There was more to it than Bledsoe. There was an issue between the team and Coates midseason, and I believe there were some contract frustrations on defense as well if I recall, and Carroll lost control of the team, although there were already whispers he was done and everyone knew it, so that finish wasn't surprising.

 

[Ian]

Good post, Ian. Thanks for the story...I always love to hear first-hand experience like this.

I think a lot of people would say Carroll never changed, though, and that he's still a rah-rah kind of guy, same as before. Difference being a team will win a lot of games with Wilson, Lynch, Bennett, Wagner, Sherman, and Thomas.

He definitely is the same guy, but he also had control at the GM level in Seattle and they didn't undermine him. He didn't inherit the same thing here. It also took him a few years to put that roster together.

I completely agree that Grier was a big problem, and I've always felt one of the best things about BB is being the coach/GM in one role (at least that worked for many years.)

Yeah, I've heard stories about a lot of what went on during that time, Carroll really had no chance. The players were really the ones who were in control back then more so than Pete. He tried to clamp down during camp that year, but we sort of all knew that guys weren't buying it. Was definitely a crazy time.

Obviously, Kraft understood that dynamic wouldn't work and learned his lesson, and fortunately with Belichick, he only had to wait just one year for it to pay off

 

[crawhammer]

There was more to it than Bledsoe. There was an issue between the team and Coates midseason, and I believe there were some contract frustrations on defense as well if I recall, and Carroll lost control of the team, although there were already whispers he was done and everyone knew it, so that finish wasn't surprising.

Sure, but Bledsoe was a complete disaster in the second half of the season, no? Bledsoe's not throwing picks left and right because Carroll was supposedly halfway out the door, which I wonder about considering they were 6-2 and playing well. Even a 10-6 finish to that season and Carroll's probably not getting fired.

 

[Ian]

I wasn't able to pull all of our content off of Rivals, but here's one I wrote at the time on that Coates situation:

Ben Coates Update: Carroll Says "He'll be in here in a little bit"

Well the big question on everyone's mind this morning was, "What about the tight end?" Head coach Pete Carroll gave the latest "Ben Coates Update" during his press conference on Thursday.

www.patsfans.com

 

[Ian]

Sure, but Bledsoe was a complete disaster in the second half of the season, no? Bledsoe's not throwing picks left and right because Carroll was supposedly halfway out the door, which I wonder about considering they were 6-2 and playing well. Even a 10-6 finish to that season and Carroll's probably not getting fired.

Again, the Coates situation was ugly and he was a well-respected guy in the locker room. There was friction over how he was being used under new coordinator, Ernie Zampese (the second or third OC for Drew in as many seasons) and the offense never really got into sync down the stretch. Drew certainly didn't play well, but obviously, there was a little more to it than just that.

 

[RodThePat]

Brady got sacked 4 times, he threw two interceptions as a result of that pressure, he had a 56 QB Rating, Dave Gug's got fired after that postseason...

All the dancing in the world won't change what happened in that game. Brady didn't make his offensive line better, their line coach literally made Brady and his line look worse.

The final drive started with 1:52 left on the clock, even a drive that ended in a TD like their final drive did wouldn't give them a win. That's garbage time. Relying on an onside kick in the final seconds isn't part of the grand plan. You obviously didn't watch the game.

I've read a lot of insane stuff in this board, but to call a drive that starts with a team down 8 "garbage time" might just take the cake.

They played that game without Solder, with an injured Vollmer, Josh Kline at guard and had Bryan Stork tipping the snap count all day long. To take that single game, in that context, against one of the best defenses of the past 20 years to make an argument about how "Brady didn't make his lines better" is absolutely asinine. Here's actual, big boy research on how QB play impacts not only sack rate, but EPA lost on sacks: i.e. how costly a sack is. This doesn't solely apply to Brady, of course, bur considering he's got the 8th best sack rate in NFL history, I'd say he did a whole lot to help his protection throughout his career. It'd be absolutely foolish to contradict that statement with a one game sample.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Carroll never really had control here because, as you mentioned, Grier was part of the equation, and the players played Pete against him during that process. I'm sure that's why Belichick let Grier go within days of getting hired.

That's why I said Carroll got a raw deal, but he never really fought for control, either.

Grier absolutely screwed Carroll. He had terrible drafts and horrible personnel decisions was both he and Carroll's downfall. It started with the 1997 draft with Chris Canty who Ted Johnson had said both he and Bledsoe told Robert Kraft after the first day of practice to not pay that guy much money he was so bad. And everyone remembers when he danced around after forcing a turnover while his teammates were fighting for the ball. People blame Parcells, but Martin had said the Pats badly lowballed him because they didn't like that he was nursing injuries two years in a row which prompted him to seek a deal with Parcells. Not re-signing Sam Gash was another blunder. Then Robert Edwards gets a freak injury (nobody's fault). Letting Willie Clay go for Chris Carter (the pre Jordan Richards) was a nail in the coffin move.

I was there in 98/99/2000 and the environments were completely different. He was a rah-rah kind of guy, certainly didn't command the room the same way Bill did. Although, he was a super nice guy. I remember he also called me over one time after I went to pick up my tape recorder to ask where I was from, right after a press conference, and talked to me for a minute or so, which I always thought was cool. Good person, just wasn't ready for the chaos/egos he had to deal with there.

I always liked Pete Carroll and seems like the cool thing to say he was a terrible coach. He was very well liked when he was at USC. Those Leinart/Bush teams teams were fun to watch and they were treated like a pro football out in LA.

Bledsoe absolutely torpedoed the 1999 season. Pre-bye the team was 6-2 and Bledsoe had 13 TDs and 4 INTs. Post-bye they were 2-6 and Bledsoe had 6 TDs and 17 INTs. That's 2.1 INTs per game. There isn't a coach in the history of life that could overcome that degree of incompetent QB play.

There was more to it than Bledsoe. There was an issue between the team and Coates midseason, and I believe there were some contract frustrations on defense as well if I recall, and Carroll lost control of the team, although there were already whispers he was done and everyone knew it, so that finish wasn't surprising.

Even with the pathetic ground game the Pats had, they were still fool's gold standing at a 6-2 record. They featured Terry Allen with no knees running the ball. The reality was, the Colts were coming. The Dolphins, Bills and Jets were a pain in the ass. They were not going to compete against Jacksonville and the Titans who were floating under the radar all year. People also forget Bill Belichick laid the blueprint that teams followed and derailed the Pats season on national TV. Bledsoe wasn't playing well after that, but he had a deteriorating O-Line, worst running game in the NFL, an aging Ben Coates and the defense was really bad in 1999.

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

 

[RIpats88]

Tua and Hurts were basically talked of whether their teams should move on before this season. Now both are looked at as franchise QBs

A lesson in a. How a #1 receiver is SOO important today and #2 rating a QB on their first 2 years is just premature

 

[Rob0729]

I don't think Mac sucks. He's had some really good moments and there's something there to build upon. His ceiling (as I imagine it to be based on what I've seen to date) is concerning, especially when looking at the extraordinary quarterback talent in the conference.

You and others say that, but it isn't like the Pats can cut or trade Jones and then just get an elite QB in the draft. That isn't how it works. It was what 30 years between when Boomer left the Bengals and they drafted Burrow. It was almost as long for the Bills between Jim Kelly and Allen. Teams like Detriot have never had an elite QB.

The fact is the Pats are unlikely to have a QB at the level of Burrow or Allen any time soon. They are going to have to compete with a lesser QB. Last year, people on this board mocked the Dolphins about Tua and now there are people on this board who thinks he is a very good QB and would gladly trade Mac for him straight up. But the biggest difference between the two QBs aren't the QBs, but the weapons and coaching around them.

Jalen Hurts was the same way. If you said this time last year that Hurts would be playing in the Super Bowl, most people would be laughing at you.

The hard truth is about 25-27 teams in this league have to compete with non-elite QBs and have to do it with teams with strong rosters top to bottom. The Pats are just one of those teams. If Jones hits his ceiling, he can go to a Super Bowl the way Hurts went this year - with a great roster top to bottom.

 

[crawhammer]

You and others say that, but it isn't like the Pats can cut or trade Jones and then just get an elite QB in the draft. That isn't how it works. It was what 30 years between when Boomer left the Bengals and they drafted Burrow. It was almost as long for the Bills between Jim Kelly and Allen. Teams like Detriot have never had an elite QB.

The fact is the Pats are unlikely to have a QB at the level of Burrow or Allen any time soon. They are going to have to compete with a lesser QB. Last year, people on this board mocked the Dolphins about Tua and now there are people on this board who thinks he is a very good QB and would gladly trade Mac for him straight up. But the biggest difference between the two QBs aren't the QBs, but the weapons and coaching around them.

Jalen Hurts was the same way. If you said this time last year that Hurts would be playing in the Super Bowl, most people would be laughing at you.

The hard truth is about 25-27 teams in this league have to compete with non-elite QBs and have to do it with teams with strong rosters top to bottom. The Pats are just one of those teams. If Jones hits his ceiling, he can go to a Super Bowl the way Hurts went this year - with a great roster top to bottom.

I hear what you're saying. I count 7 for sure elite quarterbacks in the league right now (most in the AFC) and a few more as possibilities.

Given my preference for running (or dual threat) quarterbacks at this point, I really liked Hurts coming into this season and he was a major reason why they had a successful season. That roster is solid all round but Hurts put up an MVP caliber season and he had an outstanding performance in the SB.

I would not put Mac on a similar trajectory as Hurts. My comp for Mac right now is Derek Carr.

 

[JPPT1974]

Really hope Mac can rebound. That is all you can ask for. But need to give him an O.L. for sure.

 

[patfanken]

Tua and Hurts were basically talked of whether their teams should move on before this season. Now both are looked at as franchise QBs

A lesson in a. How a #1 receiver is SOO important today and #2 rating a QB on their first 2 years is just premature

Wasn't it Waddle who when asked who he'd rather throw him the ball, Tua or Mac, when he was waiting for the draft, said something to the effect, "Mac, a thousand times, Mac" It was ONE of the great Alabama WRs of 2020

 

[lancerman]

Tua and Hurts were basically talked of whether their teams should move on before this season. Now both are looked at as franchise QBs

A lesson in a. How a #1 receiver is SOO important today and #2 rating a QB on their first 2 years is just premature

Allen was going into what was largely viewed as a prove it year as well in year 3. He was on very shakey ground.

 

[patfanken]

Here's the thing as far as the OL goes, all we really need to do is add a serviceable OT who is say, top 20, have Strange improve into the top 20 at OG and we will have at least a decent and much improved OL, with the next goal to be adding depth. Hopefully Stuber, McDermott can do that for the OT's and then draft (in the 4th say) a C/G who can replace and improve on Ferentz.

Its not like we need to vastly improve everywhere with multiple picks or FA signings. Draft and OT in the first 3 rounds, get a OC/G in the 4th, then use the OTHER 9 or so picks to improve at CB, WR, LB

 

[Wozzy]

The situations are very different.

Mac isn't a terrible QB like Allen was in 2018-19. Mac is good enough to win games the team should win; he's not going to lose games, usually. He just isn't good enough right now to really be the X-Factor where the Patriots should win due to a major advantage at QB, which the better teams have. Will he get to that level? Well, I think of it in terms this: most QBs facing Mac are also in the same boat...they just need this or that, they just need to improve here or there a little. Odds are none of them are going to take some big leap...they all have roughly the same (unlikely) chance of that huge improvement. And as they continue on that journey, other guys are being drafted.

Matt Patricia was an incredible offensive coordinator who made everyone around him better, despite that Mac Jones wasn't good enough. Sounds like solid analysis for the Patriots 2022 season. Laughable...

Allen was bad and was costing the Bills games. The Bills stuck with him because of the upside, as they made a commitment to, and expected, his failures when they drafted him. It was all in the scouting reports and he was expected to show huge growing pains but had the ability to become a superstar quarterback because of his physical talent.

But Mac has no upside, Patricia was a genius who if he couldn't get the best out of Mac nobody will. He was a far superior offensive coach than Bill O'Brien, so obviously we're screwed in 2023.

It seems your assessment of Mac is shallow and it's basically just "Mac is a professional quarterback" just like you told us for years that N'Keal Harry "is a professional wide receiver" and called everyone who dissented a "Bill hater" and "Brady fan boy."

I"ll take things that were never said for $500 Alex.