We're on to the OFF-Season

[p8ryts]

I love Dugger, but he's not a "Free Safety". He's a Strong Safety in the mold of Rodney Harrison. While Dugger might be able to take McCourty's place as a leader, the Pats need someone with more range/speed at that FS spot.

We can agree to disagree. I think he is fast enough and has the instincts for a free safety.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

We can agree to disagree. I think he is fast enough and has the instincts for a free safety.

He could probably play free safety but he's just not as good at free safety than he is at strong safety imo. So he could play at FS but he is likely to perform worse at that position.

If the Pats are looking for an internal option at FS I'd look towards Mills, who played some of that with the Eagles. I'd bet money that the Pats wait out the market at FS in free agency then sign a vet who contributes at a discount near the end of free agency. I don't expect NE to spend a draft pick in rounds 1-3 on the position but expect them to draft one in rounds 4-6.

 

[patfanken]

2023 salary cap now set at $224.8m.
NFL sets 2023 salary cap at $224.8 million - ProFootballTalk

Most sites had used a $225m estimate so not too far off. Miguel now has the Patriots at around $34m in cap space - some of the performance enhancement adjustments were lowered since the cap is lower.

BTW- there is a key number that needs to be considered when figuring out the cap. I noticed that the list you gave showed the Pats with 61 players already under contract, one of the highest in the league. It is always important to check how many people are under contract when truly figuring out how much cap space you really have. For example. You might have 90MM in space, but if you only have 40 guys under contract, that will explain the reason.

 

[patfanken]

I wonder if the Pats will be interested in Dre’Mont Jones in free agency. If I am recalling correctly, they were very high on him coming out of OSU and he would pair well with Barmore to augment their interior pass rush.

Daron Payne would be an ideal addition next to Barmore because of his ability to both stop the run and get to the QB at 320 lbs and there is an Alabama connection but I highly doubt that Bill will want to match the big offers that he will likely get on the open market, after he balled out during his contract year. I am sure that Washington would love to keep him, but they may not be willing to sink that much money into their DL. They are already paying Allen big money, and Montez Sweat and Chase Young will want to get paid in the coming years.

Daron Payne is one the NFL's top free agents in 2023

Daron Payne will be a hot commodity this offseason if the Commanders can’t find a way to retain him.

commanderswire.usatoday.com

Payne showed early in his NFL career that he could be a stout run-defender from the nose tackle position, with his 86 defensive stops against the run the most in the NFL from 2018-20.

Daron Payne makes it clear what he's looking for this offseason

Payne is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent in 2023.

commanderswire.usatoday.com

“He established career highs in tackles, sacks [11.5] and tackles for loss [18.] He was third in the NFL in TFLs, two ahead of Allen, who missed the final game.”

The Pats basically have the space for at least ONE day one FA pick. Jones would be a GREAT one. Pairing him with Barmore would be IDEAL. Inside push is the best way to defend the modern pass game. Pay him his 18-20MM/yr and let the good times roll. He'd certainly be more impactful than ANY FA WR on the market.

I haven't looked at the FA market closely as yet, but an impact DLman would be HUGE. Guy is getting up there and was just "solid" last season (with WISE having a breakthrough year). Barmore, Jones, Godceaux, (DT/N) Wise (DT/DE, and Ekule would make a great interior DL group. It would mean they could bypass interior DL in the first 5 rounds of the draft and use that capital elsewhere

Besides you can't have too many Jones' on the team.

 

[mgteich]

BTW- there is a key number that needs to be considered when figuring out the cap. I noticed that the list you gave showed the Pats with 61 players already under contract, one of the highest in the league. It is always important to check how many people are under contract when truly figuring out how much cap space you really have. For example. You might have 90MM in space, but if you only have 40 guys under contract, that will explain the reason.

Until the season starts, only the salaries for the first 51 players count against the cap. The small bonuses for the others also count.

 

[mgteich]

The Pats basically have the space for at least ONE day one FA pick. Jones would be a GREAT one. Pairing him with Barmore would be IDEAL. Inside push is the best way to defend the modern pass game. Pay him his 18-20MM/yr and let the good times roll. He'd certainly be more impactful than ANY FA WR on the market.

I haven't looked at the FA market closely as yet, but an impact DLman would be HUGE. Guy is getting up there and was just "solid" last season (with WISE having a breakthrough year). Barmore, Jones, Godceaux, (DT/N) Wise (DT/DE, and Ekule would make a great interior DL group. It would mean they could bypass interior DL in the first 5 rounds of the draft and use that capital elsewhere

Besides you can't have too many Jones' on the tea

Jones will be paid $18M AAV, but not count for $18M against the team's 2023 cap. The cap hit might be $10M.
==========
That being said, I agree that after we re-sign or sign a replacement for Myers and Jonathan Jones, we will have room for at most one Day One pick, or trade for the equivalent of a Day One Pick, perhaps for an OT.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

Jones will be paid $18M AAV, but not count for $18M against the team's 2023 cap. The cap hit might be $10M.
==========
That being said, I agree that after we re-sign or sign a replacement for Myers and Jonathan Jones, we will have room for at most one Day One pick, or trade for the equivalent of a Day One Pick, perhaps for an OT.

The varying cap hits of signing free agents makes it so hard to try to guess what a team does in free agency. The $34 MM the Pats have in cap space could be used to sign $60 MM worth of contracts at the AAV. I could see the Pats going for a couple top of the market guys like they did two years ago, or I could see them taking their typical approach of yesteryear and saving their money for value contracts later in free agency.

I love the idea of pairing a really good d tackle next to Barmore and would be happy if the Pats signed him, he isn't the day one signing I want. Give me Orlando Brown Jr., start him at LT, move Brown back to RT and the line issues should be mostly gone.

I'd love to bring back Jacoby but I think it seems likely that his contractual cost could be better used as cap space to fill other positions.

 

[mgteich]

The varying cap hits of signing free agents makes it so hard to try to guess what a team does in free agency. The $34 MM the Pats have in cap space could be used to sign $60 MM worth of contracts at the AAV. I could see the Pats going for a couple top of the market guys like they did two years ago, or I could see them taking their typical approach of yesteryear and saving their money for value contracts later in free agency.

I love the idea of pairing a really good d tackle next to Barmore and would be happy if the Pats signed him, he isn't the day one signing I want. Give me Orlando Brown Jr., start him at LT, move Brown back to RT and the line issues should be mostly gone.

I'd love to bring back Jacoby but I think it seems likely that his contractual cost could be better used as cap space to fill other positions.

I just can't see us signing Orlando Brown at the $20M a year that it likely take to sign him. I see OT as our top draft priority, perhaps draft 2 in the top 4 rounds. However, I could see a trade for OT.

For me, I don't expect a major signing in the first week, as used to be the case, although a trade is certainly more likely.

My focus will be on who we re-sign before the official free agency starts. I'm expect/hope us to quickly re-sign Cardona, Jonathan Jones, and Peppers. I also see us re-signing one of the linebackers (McMillan or Wilson), Ekuale, and McDermott).
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For me, the above six re-signs would be good start on the off-season. I would then wait for Belichick to find his 2nd tier players, including a free safety.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

It is always important to check how many people are under contract when truly figuring out how much cap space you really have.

Overthecap provides the "effective cap" number, where they sign enough players to fill the top 51 players and the rookies. The Pats come down by only around $4m, while the Texans come down by $12m and the Chiefs by $15m. (I assume these slots are assumed filled with cheap players, so the reality will be worse than shown).

Note we have some $50m more effective cap space than either the Bills or the Dolphins. Lot of teams are going to have to restructure contracts, which just pushes the problem down the road and likely ends with dead money at some point.

NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

NFL salary cap space estimates for all 32 teams

overthecap.com

 

[Patsgofor4]

I wonder if the Pats could pry Godwin away from Tampa, now that Brady is gone and given their salary cap problems. He really came on strong during the second half of the year, and this likely coincides with additional recovery from his ACL repair. He is obviously very productive but also really impressed me with his toughness late in the year vs. AZ. He took some big hits bug kept getting up and looked like the only guy other than Brady who had any fire in his belly on offense that night.

His cap number is significant at almost 24m in 2023 but they could either restructure the contract or extend him to lower that number. Also, to offset some of that cap number they could cut Parker (my preference) and save just over $6 million with no dead money or trade Bourne and save 5.5 million with 1.4 million dead money.

He is still only 26-years-old and is exactly the kind of guy the Pats need on offense. The Bucs would likely ask for 14 and probably 46, given what the Raiders gave up for Adams (a 1 and a 2 in 2022) but may take 76 or a 2 next year instead of 46, given that Godwin is not quite at Adams level.

If the trade is officially consummated after June 1 the Bucs save $20 million in cap space with only $3.75 million in dead money.

I’m sure that the Bucs would rather deal Evans and he’d obviously be an big upgrade for the Pats but he’ll be 30 in late August and the potential for a cliff would worry me a bit. I would still ask about him as well and for the right price would pull the trigger if they aren’t willing to deal Godwin.

 

[TommyD4207]

We can agree to disagree. I think he is fast enough and has the instincts for a free safety.

He's a waste at deep safety.

 

[venecol]

Anyone else surprised by the LB franchise tag amount being the second-highest position after QB?

Two things surprise me:

1. Looking at TE tag, I can't believe we paid HH & Jonnu $12.5M two ****ing years ago.
2. Surprised at how much the tags have jumped from last season. Aside from K/P, even RB is now >$10M.

Quarterback: $29.70 million
Defensive end: $17.86 million
Wide receiver: $18.42 million
Linebacker: $18.70 million
Cornerback: $17.29 million
Defensive tackle: $17.40 million
Offensive line: $16.66 million
Safety: $12.91 million
Running back: $9.57 million
Tight end: $10.93 million
Specialists: $5.22 million

That $32M we have in cap space is nice but won't go far.

 

[venecol]

That doesn't mean he's not under contract. And the grievance was filed in regards to that guaranteed money.

But it would make it easier for him to be cut, wouldn't you agree? That was the point Toofy was trying to make.

 

[venecol]

As a follow-up, I messaged @Patscap - Miguel Benzan on Twitter asking him about Bailey. Here is his response. I'll take him over an article written a month ago by someone who's cap/contract knowledge is not remotely close to that of Miguel's.

Honestly shocked that Miguel hasn't blocked your ass.

 

[JackBauer]

Honestly shocked that Miguel hasn't blocked your ass.

After looking at that account, I agree.

 

[Ivan]

I disagree with the first part and agree with the second.

Do you think that Bill will really take full responsibility for not stepping in after the camp and pre-season experiments on the OL? Will Bill really take full take full responsibility for not doing what every great executive does, step in and be hands on when a part of the organization is failing?

I disagree with your historical analysis. I do NOT think that Bill publicly takes personal blame for past decisions. And that's fine with me.

Rather, Belichick analyzes the current situation, makes needed changes and moves forward.

I expect Belichick to take full responsibility for it by taking the actions to fix it, I have no delusion that he will do so in a public mea culpa.

 

[Ivan]

No to KVN, keep adding young defenders, they can get this defense to elite status with a few really good moves.

 

[Ivan]

The Patriots could also bring in Siaki Ika DT Baylor, and move Barmore to DE in a 3/4.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

Two things surprise me:

1. Looking at TE tag, I can't believe we paid HH & Jonnu $12.5M two ****ing years ago.
2. Surprised at how much the tags have jumped from last season. Aside from K/P, even RB is now >$10M.

Quarterback: $29.70 million
Defensive end: $17.86 million
Wide receiver: $18.42 million
Linebacker: $18.70 million
Cornerback: $17.29 million
Defensive tackle: $17.40 million
Offensive line: $16.66 million
Safety: $12.91 million
Running back: $9.57 million
Tight end: $10.93 million
Specialists: $5.22 million

That $32M we have in cap space is nice but won't go far.

Agree. 32 MUSD is petty cash, although some new signings can be structured so the 2023 cap hit is spread out over a few years.
Assume they keep 5 million for future in season transactions and emergencies...that leaves about 27 MUSD. Figuring their 2 biggest needs are at OT and CB, that would allow them to sign one or two premium players at most with the rest as second tier players.

 

[venecol]

Agree. 32 MUSD is petty cash, although some new signings can be structured so the 2023 cap hit is spread out over a few years.
Assume they keep 5 million for future in season transactions and emergencies...that leaves about 27 MUSD. Figuring their 2 biggest needs are at OT and CB, that would allow them to sign one or two premium players at most with the rest as second tier players.

There will be more competition as well. If I recall correctly, the Pats had about $60M+ in cap space going into the '21 FA period. We saw what they did and how it turned out. With x2+ the cap money they have now, they still didn't sign any elite players. Back in '21 the other advantage was the reduced overall yearly cap amount put us in a position to dominate the market.

Now, we have a record cap year (23% higher than '21) with several teams w/ = > cap than the Pats. We also have a team like CHI that has >$90M in cap space with the following needs: OT, RB, WR, TE, C, G, LB DT, CB, S. IOW they need everything, have the money to compete and will be bidding for the best players.

Finally, there's the whole approach to cap management. The Pats have traditionally balked at back loading contracts and especially adding void years. This means the $32M will not go as far as say $25M can w/ a team willing to back load + add void years to lower the '23 season cap hits.

Given the above, I don't expect the Patriots to sign any elite FAs. Maybe they surprise me.