Here's why tonight is a MUST-WIN game...
Buffalo is going to win the East at 13-4.
I'm completely buying in on
Cincinnati... they're winning the North at 13-4.
Tennessee may actually gag up the South to Jacksonville but right now I'll give them the division at 9-8.
Kansas City is a lock for the West and probably the #1 seed.
Baltimore has quarterback issues but even with a 2-2 finish they're a wild card team at 11-6.
It gets tricky for the final two wild card spots... MIA, NYJ, NWE and LAC battling for those two spots.
Chargers are the most likely to get in with an 11-6 or 10-7 record because their schedule is a joke (TEN, @IND, LAR, @DEN).
So MIA, NYJ and NWE for the last spot.
Miami has been exposed a bit against better competition and their remaining schedule isn't easy (@BUF, GNB, @NWE, NYJ). I have them finishing the season at 10-7.
The
Jets are probably the hardest team to figure out. Firstly, Mike White needs to be healthy enough to play or they're totally screwed with Flacco or god forbid Wilson. Their remaining opponents are DET, JAC, @SEA,
@Mia. With White I have them finishing the season at 9-8.
So the
Patriots are currently 6-6 with remaining opponents (@ARI, @LVR, CIN, MIA, @BUF). Buffalo likely will need that last game for the #1 seed so that's a loss for the Patriots. I have Cincinnati winning out so that's another loss for the Patriots. That's 6-8. Therefore they have to beat @ARI, @LVR and MIA at home to reach 9-8 (which will bounce the Jets) and then hope Miami finishes 1-3 and not 2-2 like I'm projecting. If Miami does finish 1-3 (which would likely require a home loss to GNB), and they tie the Patriots record at 9-8, then it comes down to tiebreakers. Their division and conference records will be identical so it'll come down to common opponents, which Miami wins at 8-6 (Patriots at 6-8).
Either way, for the Patriots to have any chance at a wild card they have to win these next two road games vs lesser opponents (@ARI and @LVR).