Pats Rebuild Intermittent View of Progress

[Pats2000]

I think the "rebuild" will be stifled by four things:

1. Mac Jones is high floor low ceiling... most successful rebuilds require an elite quarterback. If Jones had even Miami's skill position players then I'd feel better about it. Right now people are talking up Meyers as his #2. Ouch. Overall I actually like New England's skill players but collectively they're not good enough to elevate a quarterback to the next level.

2. Josh Allen is going ape sh*t on the division for the foreseeable future. Buffalo in general is MUCH better than New England right now.

3. The coaching staff has the potential to be a train wreck... specifically Patricia and Judge... and of those two Patricia since he seems to be Bill's main guy.

4. Underwhelming drafts.

And Josh Allan was low floor high ceiling and Pat Mahommes was what? High floor ,high ceiling. Tell what combinations of floors and ceilings predict a good QB

 

[Ring 6]

I said that getting worse and not better is going to be a problem.

I never said it was easy and I never said it had to happen now, I said 3 to 4 years is more than enough time to reboot a team into a competitive, fringe Superbowl teams.

If they're out here at sub 500 this year or next then yeah, changes need to be made.

This is year 3 of the rebuild and I would view anything less than the playoffs as a failure.

They were a playoff team last year after ONE non playoff season. They were the 1 seed with a month to go.

 

[Ring 6]

All those accomplishments happened with TB under center though. I think Mac is a franchise QB and I think by next year that's when we can fairly judge BB. I expect at the minimum compete for a playoff spot. Next year I expect us to be contenders.

“Fairly judge” the guy who has the best results in the history of the league?
I mean he had one losing season then made the playoffs with a rookie Qb. Surely the jury must be out on him.

 

[Ring 6]

That’s not the point. Bill is the best of his generation. We all know that. But if the Krafts see a franchise that is middling, and knowing Bill’s age, do they continue to pay him $20+M a year? Or do they look for someone who they believe can lead the franchise for the next decade or more at a fraction of the cost. There’s been many, many great coaches in sports who have been let go or asked to retire once the franchise starts to flounder. I’m not saying Bill’s on the hot seat right now, all I’m saying is I don’t think he gets an automatic free ride for 5 more years if we aren’t seeing success.

When has he had 5 years without success?
So “the point” is you are going to project failure on the most successful guy so you can discuss what to do? Seriously?
My god, after loading up for the most successful run in history, there was a one year reset when he was stuck with Legarm Newton and had 9 players opt out for COVID. He responds with a playoff season with a rookie QB. How does THAT create a “what if he suddenly becomes a failure” pondering?

 

[sb1]

That’s not the point. Bill is the best of his generation. We all know that. But if the Krafts see a franchise that is middling, and knowing Bill’s age, do they continue to pay him $20+M a year? Or do they look for someone who they believe can lead the franchise for the next decade or more at a fraction of the cost. There’s been many, many great coaches in sports who have been let go or asked to retire once the franchise starts to flounder. I’m not saying Bill’s on the hot seat right now, all I’m saying is I don’t think he gets an automatic free ride for 5 more years if we aren’t seeing success.

Yeah Bill is not getting 5 years and I don’t think he would want that anyway right from his own words. I don’t think he’s on the hot seat yet unless he loses leaders like Slater and McCourty and the locker room but it’s hard not to think it would warm up if the offense is a mess this year. I do think the finish line is in sight no matter what. I hope Bill gets Shula’s record here but I don’t know if he’s really that obsessed with it. If he was then you would think Brady would still be here to give him the best shot at it.

You’re right about all great coaches being asked to step away at some point when it was their time. That’s exactly how Shula’s career ended. The Dolphins had become a middling team and the game had passed him by.

 

[PScottman]

To me that was the perfect opportunity to rip off the bandaid and start the full rebuild.

Code for "purposely lose every game". Is that so you could then proclaim the higher pick was the next "worst by a GM ever"?

Now it's like half the forum is composed of game day thread style negativity in thread after thread. You're right. We demand more. We're spoiled. Its not going to change much until we get back to winning consistently I don't think.

Was that way when they were winning too. Do the words pitchers and catchers ring a bell? There are indeed some men who just want to watch the world burn and their football team with it. It doesn't matter what the team does - they will continue to proclaim the horrors of the players, the coaches, the owners, pretty much everybody associated with the Patriots except maybe the Public Affairs staff...I haven't seen any negativity toward them...I don't think...

 

[PScottman]

Tell what combinations of floors and ceilings predict a good QB

4 floors X 3 ceilings, divided by the square root of a deck (but not a landing) = a foyer....which is pretty close to a Hoyer. Does that count?

 

[Guts]

“Fairly judge” the guy who has the best results in the history of the league?
I mean he had one losing season then made the playoffs with a rookie Qb. Surely the jury must be out on him.

Fairly judge him without TB

 

[Nunchucks]

I said that getting worse and not better is going to be a problem.

I never said it was easy and I never said it had to happen now, I said 3 to 4 years is more than enough time to reboot a team into a competitive, fringe Superbowl teams.

If they're out here at sub 500 this year or next then yeah, changes need to be made.

This is year 3 of the rebuild and I would view anything less than the playoffs as a failure.

Well, I'd say they need to be competitive in games. The coaching so far this summer has been questionable....let's see how it plays out, but if they are getting their arses beat, the tolerance for losing will be less than if they are competitive.

 

[sb1]

Fairly judge him without TB

17-16 and one terrible playoff loss so far.

I'm not expecting Bill to have anything resembling the same success without Brady but I would hope he could make the team competitive every year.

 

[203Pat]

Code for "purposely lose every game". Is that so you could then proclaim the higher pick was the next "worst by a GM ever"?

Was that way when they were winning too. Do the words pitchers and catchers ring a bell? There are indeed some men who just want to watch the world burn and their football team with it. It doesn't matter what the team does - they will continue to proclaim the horrors of the players, the coaches, the owners, pretty much everybody associated with the Patriots except maybe the Public Affairs staff...I haven't seen any negativity toward them...I don't think...

Don't be so emotional. Code for "at that point the wins and losses aren't the real concern" the team was going nowhere and the young players could have got on the field earlier and got some experience. What difference does it make to anyone if we won 7 games or 5 in 2020? Unless you're chasing an all time wins record it really doesn't matter.

 

[RodThePat]

Fairly judge him without TB

Oh, don't worry. The talking point is already that last year he made the playoffs with a "rookie QB", as if he played like Zach Wilson or something, nevermind the fact Mac ranked right there with guys like Derek Carr in pretty much every advanced metric and was arguably a top 12 QB in football in 2021. This year if they make the postseason again, it'll be "see, he can do it without elite QB play", even if Mac is awesome, and if they don't make it, then it's going to be because Mac wasn't good enough. I don't think people are ready for the discrediting of Mac Jones that's about to come from the cult of Belichick crowd.

 

[Guts]

Oh, don't worry. The talking point is already that last year he made the playoffs with a "rookie QB", as if he played like Zach Wilson or something, nevermind the fact Mac ranked right there with guys like Derek Carr in pretty much every advanced metric and was arguably a top 12 QB in football in 2021. This year if they make the postseason again, it'll be "see, he can do it without elite QB play", even if Mac is awesome, and if they don't make it, then it's going to be because Mac wasn't good enough. I don't think people are ready for the discrediting of Mac Jones that's about to come from the cult of Belichick crowd.

You need very good to elite QB play to win an SB nowadays other than the 2015 Broncos. Those are just facts.

21-22- Stafford
20-21- Brady
19-20- Mahomes
18-19- Brady
17-18- Foles(not good but had elite postseason play)
16-17- Brady
15-16- Manning(not good but all time.D)
14-15- Brady

 

[sb1]

You need very good to elite QB play to win an SB nowadays other than the 2015 Broncos. Those are just facts.

21-22- Stafford
20-21- Brady
19-20- Mahomes
18-19- Brady
17-18- Foles(not good but had elite postseason play)
16-17- Brady
15-16- Manning(not good but all time.D)
14-15- Brady

Still can't believe the Broncos won that Super Bowl with this output from Manning. An 8 QBR is an absolutely wretched performance.

 

[Ghost_Rush02]

Tom Curran works for NBC, not the Patriots. He is by definition an outside source.
Ever watch a White House press conference? The people at the podium are inside sources. The people in the audience are not. That's the definition of being a member of the media - you are supposed to be an objective outside source. It is in the job description.

He is consider a inside source because a lot of the information he gets is from "the horses mouth" that is also the very definition of being an inside source and mainly how just about everyone recognizes Tom Curran to be.


literally there are times the patriots would like certain information to get out to the public and they will leak it to a Tom Curran or a source they trust to get the information out. You weren't hearing it from Ernie Adams per se.....

 

[Pats2000]

17-16 and one terrible playoff loss so far.

I'm not expecting Bill to have anything resembling the same success without Brady but I would hope he could make the team competitive every year.

I mean they were competitive last year with Jones. fell apart at the end, but they fixed a lot of the defensive issue it seems.

 

[PScottman]

Don't be so emotional.

Your concern for a state of mind that isn't relevant nor part of the original post is appreciated, but unnecessary.

The youth did get more snaps than normal (compared to their contribution/ability) that year already. Of approx. 1000 snaps on both offense and defense (2019 and 2020 classes):

2020 Duggar - 518, Uche - 178, Asiasi - 213, Keene - 141, Onwenu - 926, Herron - 351, Bryant - 156, Taylor - 50 - so an average of a third of the snaps.

2019 - Meyers - 665, Harry - 584, Williams - 171, Winovich - 594, Harris - 251, Froholdt - 61, and Coward - 419 - almost 40% of the snaps.

Compare that to 2019 and the two most recent draft classes - (also right around 1000 snaps)

2019 - Harry - 220, Williams - 80, Harris - 5, Coward - 43, and Meyers 416 - an average of 10% of the snaps

2018 - Wynn - 502, Michel - 420, Bentley - 275 - an average of around 40%, but meshed with the 2019 class - much lower total youth snaps of around 27% or so.

35% of the snaps vs 27% - that's a pretty good jump. Obviously this removes talent, draft position, injuries, and lots of other variables, but where are the numbers proving the Patriots didn't play their youth more in 2020 "just to win more games for Bill's benefit"?

 

[Ghost_Rush02]

I mean they were competitive last year with Jones. fell apart at the end, but they fixed a lot of the defensive issue it seems.

They are even weaker at corner and LB this year. Defensive line is also a question mark. The defense might ultimately look better than the offense this year but things look to be very concerning on both sides of the ball right now.

 

[Sicilian]

They are even weaker at corner and LB this year. Defensive line is also a question mark. The defense might ultimately look better than the offense this year but things look to be very concerning on both sides of the ball right now.

They're weaker at CB1, but have (potentially) more depth there depending on if the rookies can develop over the course of the season. Too early to tell ultimately. But their linebackers last year, while more experienced, were VERY slow. They've added speed there, and for the most part this camp that's translated well to the field. I wouldn't say they're weaker, it's just a group with different makeup than last year.

D line should be better than last year, if nothing else based on Barmore improving in year two. Safeties are also deeper with the addition of Peppers (who you could also say is more hybrid S/LB).

A lot has to come together as it always does over the course of the season, but I don't think optimism on the defense is unfounded.

 

[203Pat]

Double post