Mayo/Drake Is Starting A How Many Year Rebuild?

[mgteich]

As we enter the doldrums of May and June, I thought that we might voice our opinions of the length of the rebuild. Perhaps, this will set a standard against which to compare. Or, perhaps, we will just change the goal posts as we go.
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A FOUR-YEAR PLAN
For me, this is a Drake rebuild. I hope that we are competitive for the playoffs in his YEAR TWO, 2025, his first full year of playing. I expect us to be a solid contender for the division in 2026 (Year THREE) and in Year FOUR, 2027, to be the favorite to win the division and to be one of the top 4 in the conference, competing for the Championship.

AFTER THREE YEARS, the team will need to judge whether we need to draft another QB in Drake's Year 4 or make the option to pay him in his 5th, hopefully with an extension.

 

[Brick27]

For me, I’d like to see Maye take an NFL snap first.

 

[slash83]

I’m expecting to contend for the division starting next year. Maye plays this year gets some experience, trade or sign a true #1 WR next offseason and go tackle high in the draft and bam offense will be set to go with an already stellar defense. LFG!

 

[goheels22002]

Looking around the division, this Patriots team will be able to contend if the offensive line comes together. The offense got a huge shot in the arm at every position group. QB, WR, OL, TE, RB all got younger and better. My take on the re-build is that they let go the right veterans, and re-signed the right veterans. I wish they'd kept Zeke Eliot who was a solid veteran in 2023.

The offense , at the very least, should improve from 31st in the NFL in Time of Possession and from 27th in giveaways, both of which are critical to keeping the defense off the field. If they can move up above average in both stats as a team, they give themselves a chance to win games.

The defense looks like the best in the division with Judon and Hernandez back and healthy. With Mayo as HC and key guys rewarded for playing well (for a change), the defense will keep the Patriots in games.

The 2024 Patriots should be able to get a few more wins and get up in the 7-10, 8-9 range. Outside the division, which is a very unsettled group of teams, they Patriots get a number of teams in the same boat they are in - rebuilding, younger, new coaches, etc. How they do against their peer non-playoff teams (Seahawks, Cardinals, Bears, Titans, Jets, etc.) ,will be a key indicator.

Two-year rebuild with 2026 as the year to truly compete for a playoff run. By Drake Maye's third year, the Patriots should be a genuine threat.

 

[KCSVEN]

When Maye is playing full time they are contenders, whether it is 2024 or 2025, I'm 100% convinced Maye is going to be a top 5 QB, at worst.
He should be as good or better than Stroud in year 1.
As long as the coaching is good, they contend for a playoff from the day Maye starts.
They have a good defense that could be great.
They will average over 20 points a game when Maye starts.
In 2023 Every single team that scored over 360 points had a winning record.
Only the Jets and Raiders allowed under 360 per game and had a losing record.
Pats as a team allowed 367 with an offense responsible for many of those points against.
Which means the defense should allow less than 360 if offense is middle of the pack and then it might be closer to the elite number of 300 which is a guaranteed winning record.
Question to me is whether there is a big drop off in coaching.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I see it as a 2 year plan to become a decent team, basically a team that can fight for a playoff spot. And a 3 year plan to become a team winning playoff games. Once you get to the point where you are beating the true contenders then you can win a Super Bowl, but the goal from there on out should be to get in the final 4 as often as possible, and get some Lombardi’s out of it. I think the philosophy that Bill Walsh, Parcells, and Belichick all shared was one where they saw the playoffs as a tournament, and the more you are in it the more likely you are to win your share of Lombardi’s, as opposed to the philosophy of loading up for a shot at a ring, as the Rams did, The Rams got their ring, but then they had to purge salaries and go backwards and rebuild to try and get back into the tournament, as opposed to being a regular contender.

The Patriots aren’t in full rebuild mode because they already have a really good defense, which basically has half the job done, so it was really an offensive rebuild they were looking at. More than anything else they had to find their franchise QB, so much if this question comes down to whether Drake Maye will be a franchise QB for the next 10+ years, or whether they will still be looking for that answer a couple of years from now. And while I love what they did in the draft, they are still going to need a couple more big pieces to get to the level of teams like Philly, Detroit, Buffalo, and San Francisco. I’m not going to include Kansas City in that equation because they are a true Dynasty right now, and no one else is on that level. Every team is going to have to get by them to win Lombardi’s, but no one is in their class. So I’m happy they went for a franchise QB, as that’s the critical piece to contend, but we will have to wait and see who pans out this season, and then address their needs in the next free agency and Draft. And although many here are pissed that they weren’t aggressive in free agency I was happy they weren’t, and I see it as a sign that Wolf is truly ready for this job, as he didn’t panic and throw money at lesser players just to get wins this season, and will almost certainly go into the next free agency as a player for the top talent available. I also think they did a great job keeping the young core players with contracts that didn’t ruin their future cap situation.

The other question relevant to this discussion is whether Jerod Mayo and his staff are up to the job or not? And as much as I like Mayo thats impossible to know right now. And for that reason and many others this is going to be the most interesting season we have seen in many years. There are many questions that need answers, and they can only be answered by how they perform. I’m looking forward to it more than any season in a long time. We spent 20 years writing them in for the final 4 before a game was played, and the last 4 in Suckville, so this will be fun to watch.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Assuming we can keep our defense together through resigning the key guys, 2026 is a reasonable goal for contending if maye is a legit starter.

2025 you focus on completing the OL with whatever doesn’t work out this year, devote multiple high picks if need be.

2026 you go all in for a #1 wr and maybe one more playmaker on D.

No reason we can’t do this unless we miss on a bunch of picks. At least around the qb position it should be set , obviously Maye is the major wild card.

 

[upstater1]

It all depends on the coaching. If the coaching ain't right, it's a 8 or 9 year plan.

If the coaching is right, it's a 2 year plan.

 

[BTTA]

Looking around the division, this Patriots team will be able to contend if the offensive line comes together. The offense got a huge shot in the arm at every position group. QB, WR, OL, TE, RB all got younger and better. My take on the re-build is that they let go the right veterans, and re-signed the right veterans. I wish they'd kept Zeke Eliot who was a solid veteran in 2023.

The offense , at the very least, should improve from 31st in the NFL in Time of Possession and from 27th in giveaways, both of which are critical to keeping the defense off the field. If they can move up above average in both stats as a team, they give themselves a chance to win games.

The defense looks like the best in the division with Judon and Hernandez back and healthy. With Mayo as HC and key guys rewarded for playing well (for a change), the defense will keep the Patriots in games.

The 2024 Patriots should be able to get a few more wins and get up in the 7-10, 8-9 range. Outside the division, which is a very unsettled group of teams, they Patriots get a number of teams in the same boat they are in - rebuilding, younger, new coaches, etc. How they do against their peer non-playoff teams (Seahawks, Cardinals, Bears, Titans, Jets, etc.) ,will be a key indicator.

Two-year rebuild with 2026 as the year to truly compete for a playoff run. By Drake Maye's third year, the Patriots should be a genuine threat.

Yeah, I think there's something to be said for that returning defense. Like every year, injuries will play a huge role. If they are one of the luckier teams in that regard, it could get done in two years.

We should keep in mind that the other three teams in the division are only better than us because they have established star QB's. They are that one injury from falling behind us.

 

[Thelonious]

I would predict two years under Mayo/Wolf with steady but unacceptably modest improvement, then a year or two under a duo capable of finishing the job. Four years.

 

[patfanken]

As we enter the doldrums of May and June, I thought that we might voice our opinions of the length of the rebuild. Perhaps, this will set a standard against which to compare. Or, perhaps, we will just change the goal posts as we go.
========
A FOUR-YEAR PLAN
For me, this is a Drake rebuild. I hope that we are competitive for the playoffs in his YEAR TWO, 2025, his first full year of playing. I expect us to be a solid contender for the division in 2026 (Year THREE) and in Year FOUR, 2027, to be the favorite to win the division and to be one of the top 4 in the conference, competing for the Championship.

AFTER THREE YEARS, the team will need to judge whether we need to draft another QB in Drake's Year 4 or make the option to pay him in his 5th, hopefully with an extension.

Well I don't disagree with your premise. It makes perfect sense and pretty much is right on line with my expectations. But just 2 points.

First and most importantly is that EVERY team is "rebuilding" EVERY year. Let's not forget that even during the Pats 2 hottest runs the team was turning over 30-40% of the roster every year. On paper, we got better. But "on paper" so did every other team in the league, Don't forget the old adage, (and I paraphrase greatly) "the object of the off season ISN'T to add talent, but to build a T E A M".

The second is related to the first. EVERY guy who makes a 53 man roster or even a practice squad is a VERY good player. Think of thef thousands of college football players who are eligible to turn pro each year, Only 250 odd guys get drafted and roughly half of THOSE guys never make a team. Players that fans call "JAGS" are extraordinary athletes. What is it, 80-85% of the league is made up of "JAGs". That is why 70% of NFL games end up being one score games. The Pats played 14 one score games last season (including the 4 wins). Those are games where a fortunate call, bounce, or deflection could have turned that loss into a win.

There is another old adage that states "football games are not "won", but rather NOT lost, Or "the team that makes the fewest mistakes usually wins the game", etc. You know them all. So believe me when I tell you that the Pats will field a team that will have 53 VERY good football players. Don't forget that very bad Pats almost (and should have) beaten the very good Eagles last year. We had a VERY good defense last year (top 10) despite losing Judon and Gonzales early. It SHOULD be even better this year, So I suspect, we will likely be in tight games most of the year.

THAT is all I want for this season. To watch entertaining close games while my team adds talent and LEARNS how to win,

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Three year plan to be to the point that we feel we can make the playoffs and win in the playoffs
I think Maye is not the problem. It is the coaching
We have a first year young coach. The staff was from teams that were not that good.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

Three year plan to be to the point that we feel we can make the playoffs and win in the playoffs
I think Maye is not the problem. It is the coaching
We have a first year young coach. The staff was from teams that were not that good.

How do we know if the coaching is a problem already and if Maye isn’t a problem? One hasn’t taken a NFL snap yet and the other hasn’t coached a NFL game yet. Frankly, we don’t know anything yet.

 

[TomPatriot]

Three year plan to be to the point that we feel we can make the playoffs and win in the playoffs
I think Maye is not the problem. It is the coaching
We have a first year young coach. The staff was from teams that were not that good.

What do you mean by “it is the coaching?” I agree to the extent that we don’t know how this all meshes.

 

[patsfan13]

IMo it will be about the coaching, BB downfall really happeded whe the Lost Scarneccia, and MCDaniel. wasn't able to secure adequate replacements.. Will be watching this staff closely over the enxt 2 years.

 

[stinkypete]

No regime gets 4 years to complete a rebuild anymore. I expect by the end of 2025 we are pushing for a playoff spot, and that by 2026 we're in.

 

[PancakeBlockPaul]

BB downfall really happeded whe the Lost Scarneccia, and MCDaniel. wasn't able to secure adequate replacements..

The thing about finding replacements is that for some (Scar), there are none. So you unfortunately get what’s available….

 

[mgteich]

No regime gets 4 years to complete a rebuild anymore. I expect by the end of 2025 we are pushing for a playoff spot, and that by 2026 we're in.

OK, so we don't get 4 years.

For you, we get THREE years to get into the playoffs.
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Most of us posting a FOUR year rebuild expect us to be competing for the DIVISION after 3 years, and to be a division favorite in the 4th years.
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This is semantics. You think that we need more time your 3 year rebuild than we need for a 4 year rebuild.

 

[IcyPatriot]

The left side of our line is suspect for now.
Absolutely do not start him until that situation improves.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

What do you mean by “it is the coaching?” I agree to the extent that we don’t know how this all meshes.

I posted it quick without a proof read. Commented without fully explaining myself. This is just a guess on my part.
What I meant to say is it could take three years because I feel it is a better chance that Maye is not the problem for a slow progress. That I have more reservations about the coaching staff than him.
Just a guess. It could possibly go the other way
Both Maye and the coaching staff have question marks.