Pats Rebuild Intermittent View of Progress

[Ring 6]

A few opinion-based thoughts, nothing scientific...

Keeping the other team's offense on the field gives them more opportunities for them to fumble, throw INTs, etc. Classic Patriots defenses were quite good at getting turnovers and even a bunch of YAC to put the offense in favorable positions. BDB means putting the opponent's offense into shorter/tighter fields with more opportunities for them to make mistakes. BDB means not letting in cheap/easy scores, making the other team earn their points, keeping the pressure on them.

Love the GOAT, but I think it's fair to say most of his years here he did not have a "greatest show on turf (tm)" weapons based offense that rang up points like crazy. We sadly know how the Moss era ended up, enjoyable but in the end not satisfying. Teams that did go with the GSOT approach like the aforementioned Rams, or the Manning-era Colts, did not have as much success overall as we did. I guess we'll see if that style does become the way to get prolonged success, but people here often mention that Rogers, Mahomes, et al have only gotten one SB instead of multiple, so the evidence isn't clear to me at least. Would need to see like three SB appearances in four years with two wins to consider the team to have prolonged success. Don't think the current Rams have that in them, IMO.

The GOAT has had a weapons-oriented offense the last two seasons. First season the team had good health and won the SB. Second year, not as healthy, and in the big game against the Rams Stafford outplayed the GOAT statistically and TB's defense broke instead of bent in the clutch. Rams moved down the field when it mattered. Not sure if they've addressed that very well or not.

I would like to see the Moneyball style analysis you describe, but would think people like Ernie Adams were being paid to look at such things from a high level and decide if we were on the right track or not. I think they've aimed for an overall higher level of talent across the team, and tried to avoid a "stars and scrubs" approach that some other teams have ended up with.

The difference in time on the field is neglible to the point of irrelevance.

 

[captain stone]

Bend but don't break is a misleading term. The Pats defensive mantra is to limit the number of big plays and force a team to be patient and not make drive killing mistakes. If a team is successful getting to the red zone, force FG's by exploiting the advantages of a short field. This strategy helps with clock management when the team has a lead and makes it more difficult to come from behind late in games.

BBDB is fine when you have a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter, as an alternative to the Prevent defense, which usually allows yards & points much too quickly.

 

[Ring 6]

BBDB is fine when you have a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter, as an alternative to the Prevent defense, which usually allows yards & points much too quickly.

Clearly you don’t understand what bend but don’t break means.

 

[captain stone]

But it doesn’t give your offense fewer opportunities so it is irrelevant.

It gives them fewer possessions with starting field position that has scoring potential... Take for example the first drives of each team in SB46...

 

[Ring 6]

It gives them fewer possessions with starting field position that has scoring potential... Take for example the first drives of each team in SB46...

But that is not what happens with a defense that has a “bend but don’t break” philosophy. The difference is virtually non existent.
It’s a false equivalency.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

A few opinion-based thoughts, nothing scientific...

Keeping the other team's offense on the field gives them more opportunities for them to fumble, throw INTs, etc. Classic Patriots defenses were quite good at getting turnovers and even a bunch of YAC to put the offense in favorable positions. BDB means putting the opponent's offense into shorter/tighter fields with more opportunities for them to make mistakes. BDB means not letting in cheap/easy scores, making the other team earn their points, keeping the pressure on them.

Love the GOAT, but I think it's fair to say most of his years here he did not have a "greatest show on turf (tm)" weapons based offense that rang up points like crazy. We sadly know how the Moss era ended up, enjoyable but in the end not satisfying. Teams that did go with the GSOT approach like the aforementioned Rams, or the Manning-era Colts, did not have as much success overall as we did. I guess we'll see if that style does become the way to get prolonged success, but people here often mention that Rogers, Mahomes, et al have only gotten one SB instead of multiple, so the evidence isn't clear to me at least. Would need to see like three SB appearances in four years with two wins to consider the team to have prolonged success. Don't think the current Rams have that in them, IMO.

The GOAT has had a weapons-oriented offense the last two seasons. First season the team had good health and won the SB. Second year, not as healthy, and in the big game against the Rams Stafford outplayed the GOAT statistically and TB's defense broke instead of bent in the clutch. Rams moved down the field when it mattered. Not sure if they've addressed that very well or not.

I would like to see the Moneyball style analysis you describe, but would think people like Ernie Adams were being paid to look at such things from a high level and decide if we were on the right track or not. I think they've aimed for an overall higher level of talent across the team, and tried to avoid a "stars and scrubs" approach that some other teams have ended up with.

Unfortunately, the bottom of their roster this year is scrubs and they do not have stars or depth.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Unfortunately, the bottom of their roster this year is scrubs and they do not have stars or depth.

Poor drafting does that to the bottom of a roster.

Bb the coach is the greatest defensive mind the nfl has ever seen.

Almost half of the nfl teams have someone from patriots scouting in their front office.

Yet, when it comes to drafting bb seems to have lost his mind starting in 2018, except for 2021 when wolf was prominent.

 

[RodThePat]

A few opinion-based thoughts, nothing scientific...

Keeping the other team's offense on the field gives them more opportunities for them to fumble, throw INTs, etc. Classic Patriots defenses were quite good at getting turnovers and even a bunch of YAC to put the offense in favorable positions. BDB means putting the opponent's offense into shorter/tighter fields with more opportunities for them to make mistakes. BDB means not letting in cheap/easy scores, making the other team earn their points, keeping the pressure on them.

Love the GOAT, but I think it's fair to say most of his years here he did not have a "greatest show on turf (tm)" weapons based offense that rang up points like crazy. We sadly know how the Moss era ended up, enjoyable but in the end not satisfying. Teams that did go with the GSOT approach like the aforementioned Rams, or the Manning-era Colts, did not have as much success overall as we did. I guess we'll see if that style does become the way to get prolonged success, but people here often mention that Rogers, Mahomes, et al have only gotten one SB instead of multiple, so the evidence isn't clear to me at least. Would need to see like three SB appearances in four years with two wins to consider the team to have prolonged success. Don't think the current Rams have that in them, IMO.

The GOAT has had a weapons-oriented offense the last two seasons. First season the team had good health and won the SB. Second year, not as healthy, and in the big game against the Rams Stafford outplayed the GOAT statistically and TB's defense broke instead of bent in the clutch. Rams moved down the field when it mattered. Not sure if they've addressed that very well or not.

I would like to see the Moneyball style analysis you describe, but would think people like Ernie Adams were being paid to look at such things from a high level and decide if we were on the right track or not. I think they've aimed for an overall higher level of talent across the team, and tried to avoid a "stars and scrubs" approach that some other teams have ended up with.

The Patriots had the league's best offense from 2001-2019 by points scored, yards per game DVOA and EPA/Play. The Bucs have had the best offense in football in 2020-2021 by points scored, EPA/Play and DVOA. Only twice in Brady's career has his team's offense ranked lower than his defense by DVOA. This post severely understates the importance of offense to team success. Brady's teams have averaged 30 points per game in the playoffs since 2011. I think that has a pretty big correlation to their success.

 

[captain stone]

Poor drafting does that to the bottom of a roster.

Bb the coach is the greatest defensive mind the nfl has ever seen.

Almost half of the nfl teams have someone from patriots scouting in their front office.

Yet, when it comes to drafting bb seems to have lost his mind starting in 2018, except for 2021 when wolf was prominent.

Don't forget 2017... Among other ****-ups, we could've had Kittle with the pick Bill gave Indy for Dwayne Allen...

 

[Bill Lee]

Don't forget 2017... Among other ****-ups, we could've had Kittle with the pick Bill gave Indy for Dwayne Allen...

Kittle was picked in the fifth round 146th, so there were 145 other bites at that apple.

The league as a whole whiffed on him.

Just goes to show drafting is far from an exact science.

However, if you prefer to feel butthurt about it, go ahead, knock yourself out.

 

[p8ryts]

How is "...dont break" a negative instead of a positive? Shouldn't the definition revolve around the outcome (meaning less points per contest)?

Have the Patriots defenses over the course of a season devolved into a bend and break defense (usually due to injury, but also due to better competition and other less controllable variables)?

Absolutely, last year being a great example, but that doesn't mean when they WERE successfully implementing the traditional Patriot "make the other team execute successfully 10-12 times in a row to score in a given possession" approach that it's a negative as a defensive philosophy - which is what I think you're arguing.

It's always been bend don't break. Stu Pidassie explained the philosophy. You still have to have players that can make the plays. The difference the last couple years and I don't know if it will change this year, is we don't seem to have playmakers. As BB always explains it's the players that win the games and conversely they also lose the games. Our last SB teams had Donte, Trey, Stephon and Kyle make key plays. We haven't had that the last couple years. There have been several instances the last two years where the defense called was in position to stop the play and our guys didn't succeed. Can we find some playmakers this year? Can Barmore provide the inside disruption? Can the edge hold? Can the LB's get side line to side line? That's where the season will be determined. We have offensive players. They can win if they have time to adjust in a game. In my mind it's ON THE DEFENSE this year.