Many Want A Defensive Front Six Player At 21: Will Anyone There Be Worth the Pick

[holyredeemer]

Would be huge if he turned into something this year. Dude was a baller at Bama. It isn’t really fair to definitively judge any of the 2020 class based upon their rookie year alone….no offseason other than virtual sessions and a one month training camp with no scrimmages or preseason games. My main question about him is whether his play speed is good enough for the NFL. It looked like it in college but he looked slow to me as a rookie.

I try to never get my hopes up for guys that come to the team, hardly play, and then proceed to play even less. What was Jennings injury anyways? When he got placed on IR, I just assumed it was to give him another year. All we need is one of Jennings, Perkins, or Uche stepping up to be a good starter this season. Is that too much to ask? It’s going to be really ****ty if all 3 flame out.

 

[venecol]

Most would like a defensive front six player early.

Will one even be available at 21. Yes, Belichick would jump at Davis or Lloyd. Isn't it more likely that none left will be even close to being worth the pick.

Are there any worth the pick if we trade down to the bottom of the first?

How do we know who BB considers worthy of a pick?

 

[mgteich]

I try to never get my hopes up for guys that come to the team, hardly play, and then proceed to play even less. What was Jennings injury anyways? When he got placed on IR, I just assumed it was to give him another year. All we need is one of Jennings, Perkins, or Uche stepping up to be a good starter this season. Is that too much to ask? It’s going to be really ****ty if all 3 flame out.

all four, including McGrone.

 

[Ring 6]

Tbf to Jennings…
Tbf to Winovich…
Tbf to Uche…
Tbf to Perkins…

The pattern is concerning. These were really good prospects and for some reason, they don’t seem to be making any jump. I know it’s too early to say that about Perkins, and I bet the guy is as talented as many of the 2nd tier (at least) edge guys some here are hoping for in the draft.

Bottom line is that with Jennings, Uche, and Perkins, the Pats already gave the raw talent to cover that end opposite Judon, so what gives? How about we really see what these guys can do?

3rd and 4th round picks are far less than 50% of becoming top players.
What they have gotten out of these players is pretty typical of their draft slot, especially when you factor in injuries.

 

[holyredeemer]

all four, including McGrone.

For next year, I’ll give McGrone a flier as long as he shows some promise. I expect the others I listed to be in competition for the OLB spot. McGrone we know was definitely injured. I could see McGrone having a hard time getting ahead of seasoned players like Wilson and McMillan.

 

[50-yard-line]

3rd and 4th round picks are far less than 50% of becoming top players.
What they have gotten out of these players is pretty typical of their draft slot, especially when you factor in injuries.

Uche was pick #60. Jennings and Perkins were both around where the Pats 3rd pick is now.

All three were graded, and similar physically to Kingsley Enigbare. Unless we’re talking one of the top 3 or 4, the Pats have THREE similar players in house now, none of whom have seen much time.

I wouldn’t spend a pick just to make the pool bigger.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Davis or trade down for Quay Walker if we’re talking specifically front six players. Davis specifically would fix so many issues this team has, though.

Agreed, if Davis is motivated, trains well, and keeps his weight down. The GA coaching staff has indicated all three issues were a problem for Davis.

Travis Jones is not as athletic but is a far less risky choice. It might be better to try and draft Wyatt from GA and Jones from CT, then we would be much stouter against the run and greatly improved in our interior pass rush with Wyatt and Barmore. Wyatt and Jones are less flashy but much less risky too.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

O.K. Cousin....here goes.
We all have discussed the anxiety of a BB Draft. Was 2021 an outlier?

I am sure we can examine BB's trades as more of his forte than the Draft. But how ironic the Draft got better when Director of player personnel – Nick Caserio and Director of college scouting – Monti Ossenfort left.

Parker this year was a case in point. WR was and is needed but he can expand his target priorities to other positions. It used to be the big motto in the NFL to Draft the best player available at your pick.....not today. You have to be cognoscente of Team needs in the immediate future because of free agency and CAP. Even if you don't admit it you have to target roster holes. O.K. better Teams less holes.

I will get to the point. There are three other move Bill can make that can sacrifice lower picks for players that can play now. You don't get that in the Draft. Take Harry for example. 1st round Draft pick. Talented but maybe he plays better elsewhere. Look at players from other Teams who were lackluster on those first Teams that Drafted them but became better players on the Pats. Think of Vrabel and Van Noy or even Welker who did not become a star until BB......Trades

I will give you three cases that can be of benefit to the Pats roster yet not cost us serious Draft wampum. I will take these in place of the lower Draft picks we would give up because they can play or at the least have better potential to contribute in 2022. Keep this is mind. The analysis has show that the average success of every NFL Draft per Team is 17%-19%. This is summarized over a fair three year evaluation. In quick terms it means that after three years only two of your picks will still be on the roster as significant contributors. If only one make it it's 14% but the weaker Teams have more of their Drafted players stick on the roster so it kind of taints the numbers.

• 1 Clelin Ferrell DE/DT Raiders. Can be effective setting the edge whereas our D Line was awful in 2021. A top Draft pick (4th). Was Drafted to be a pass rusher and he is better at run defense. A little light in weight from what the Pats do but remember the role that Trey Flowers did at DE/DT in his best year here. The surprising figure people do not realize is he had 20 QB pressures in 2020 and 15 last year in a diminished role as a rotation guy. The kid fits the Pats mold. He comes from a military family. He was a round peg/square hole in Las Vegas. He's young. $4.7mm base salary this year that jumps over double in 2023 if you do a year 5 with him, so you take a decision. 6'5" and bout 270lbs EXAMPLEefensive end Kwity Paye, the 21st overall pick by Indianapolis, was the first player taken in the first round to sign. His fully guaranteed four-year rookie contract should be worth $13,644,834, which included a $7,283,516 signing bonus. He also played well against us.

Perhaps Trade a fifth rounder for Ferrell

• 2 Laviska Shenault WR. Jaguars. The Jags signed three receivers in FA. Kind of the same situation as Parker. He had 63 receptions on a bad Team in 2021. He is "Deeboesque" in the slot 6'1" 227lbs. Can play outside. Would be our second best WR immediately. Young and cheap $1.8mm. Can return kicks. No excuse on this one to not invest. Can be a little bit of a head problem but not as nuts as AB or Chad. So was Randy. Look at this kid's tape and tell me he isn't a find for Bill. He's a taste acquired.

Perhaps Trade a sixth Rounder for Shenault

Watch this:

• 3 Andy Isabella WR. Cardinals. We've beat this one to death. We need speed. Cheap $1.2mm

Perhaps Trade a sixth Rounder for Isabella

We won't get them all but I'd rather have these three than lower picks because they can play now.
DW Toys

Not sure if Ferrell is available for trade, or if this is just you spit-balling, but he'd be a great addition. He never developed into a premier edge rusher, but he's a solid all-around player who could thrive here. Great suggestion.

 

[50-yard-line]

Agreed, if Davis is motivated, trains well, and keeps his weight down. The GA coaching staff has indicated all three issues were a problem for Davis.

Travis Jones is not as athletic but is a far less risky choice. It might be better to try and draft Wyatt from GA and Jones from CT, then we would be much stouter against the run and greatly improved in our interior pass rush with Wyatt and Barmore. Wyatt and Jones are less flashy but much less risky too.

I would RUN to the podium if Davis was there at 21. For any other problems he might have, he's a stone wall. And with a LB corps that looks more like big safeties now, that stone wall is a must.

 

[patfanken]

I would RUN to the podium if Davis was there at 21. For any other problems he might have, he's a stone wall. And with a LB corps that looks more like big safeties now, that stone wall is a must.

I think Davis will go in the top 15 but even if he drops he's not making past the Chargers at 17, so it's time we forget about Jordan Davis becoming a Patriot. Plain and simple it's NOT going to happen.

That being said after watching the Andy Isabella highlight, I am hoping for a trade (Harry) or release for him. As long as the price is low enough he's DEFINITELY worth a look in camp and the OTA's. I'd really like to know WHY this kid has been such a bust thus far in his career

 

[50-yard-line]

I think Davis will go in the top 15 but even if he drops he's not making past the Chargers at 17, so it's time we forget about Jordan Davis becoming a Patriot. Plain and simple it's NOT going to happen.

That being said after watching the Andy Isabella highlight, I am hoping for a trade (Harry) or release for him. As long as the price is low enough he's DEFINITELY worth a look in camp and the OTA's. I'd really like to know WHY this kid has been such a bust thus far in his career

I'm not sure about that.

I do see the Chargers as the most likely team to grab him, after the Eagles' trade. I also see it as more likely that he drops than Wilfork dropping...
"Not going to happen" is way too definitive. Fans get amped on the underwear olympics more than scouts and most GMs do.

There are some red flags there. I just think he fits what BB is building perfectly.

I'm hoping for Devin Lloyd, as well - and I see both of them likely gone, but maybe not.

 

[mgteich]

I think Davis will go in the top 15 but even if he drops he's not making past the Chargers at 17, so it's time we forget about Jordan Davis becoming a Patriot. Plain and simple it's NOT going to happen.

That being said after watching the Andy Isabella highlight, I am hoping for a trade (Harry) or release for him. As long as the price is low enough he's DEFINITELY worth a look in camp and the OTA's. I'd really like to know WHY this kid has been such a bust thus far in his career

Yes, he can compete for the non-existent #6WR position.

Parker, Bourne, Agholor, Myers, Draftee

Or are you consider Isabella instead of a drafting a WR in the first four rounds?

 

[DW Toys]

I think Davis will go in the top 15 but even if he drops he's not making past the Chargers at 17, so it's time we forget about Jordan Davis becoming a Patriot. Plain and simple it's NOT going to happen.

That being said after watching the Andy Isabella highlight, I am hoping for a trade (Harry) or release for him. As long as the price is low enough he's DEFINITELY worth a look in camp and the OTA's. I'd really like to know WHY this kid has been such a bust thus far in his career

Cousin, Round peg/square hole in the Cards offense. Historically all their receivers are on the larger size like Fitzgerald in the past. Bolden was another . Presently Hopkins is 6'1" 216, Wesley is 6'4" 206 (just signed his tender). AJ Green last year was 6'4" 211. Now Rondale Moore is the outlier but was a rookie last year.

It makes all the sense in the world for the Cards to consider a trade of Isabella for Harry. We get some CAP relief.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

Not sure if Ferrell is available for trade, or if this is just you spit-balling, but he'd be a great addition. He never developed into a premier edge rusher, but he's a solid all-around player who could thrive here. Great suggestion.

Cousins, Thanks for the retort.

Great breakfast to start the day!
Two buttered over medium eggs with a dollop of Amana (brand) whipped cheddar cheese spread after they were cooked, that melted in quite nicely, maple flavored bacon (had the share with the Dogs and Cat) and a superb thick cinnamon roll frosted just right, that was moist on the inside, not dried out, nor too gooey. Plus Orange juice and Coffee with the mint mocha flavor.

"It appears the Las Vegas Raiders are ready to move on from edge rusher Clelin Ferrell.
The Silver and Black have reportedly had trade discussions involving the 2019 No. 4 pick as the Nov. 2 deadline approaches, according to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer."

So even at the Trade deadline last year they tried to move him. Round peg/square hole. Mayock wanted pass rush. Got that from Crosby during that same Draft class but Ferrell, not so much. Was much better stopping the run. In fact he was inserted at DT many plays last year for quickness and actually did a good job. The same thing we did with Trey Flowers when he thrived.

Listening to Callahan from the Herald, he pointed to the fact that setting the edge was at issue last year. He also pointed out that during the final stretch especially losses to the Colts, Bills and Dolphins the only averaged 2 QB hits per game. Bill looks at QB pressures as being valuable like sacks. Ferrell had 20 in 2020 but few sacks and in 2021 with diminished snaps he still had 15 QB pressures.

“I think if you look at the overall passing game, the statistic that stands out the most in terms of correlation is pressure. So pressure on the quarterback leads to more bad plays than sacks do, in terms of turnovers unless you have strip sacks, obviously. That’s the No. 1. After that, pressures cause bad throws and potentially turnovers,” Belichick admitted.

Putting my chips on the table for this kid. BB could make Clelin's career. Will be cheaper to own that Flowers or Clowney (who I would love to have and still only 29). BB would love this kid's family military background.

A lower pick should do it (5th?6th) or perhaps a swap of Jennings who Josh knows well into a more pass rushing venue in Vegas across from Crosby. Jennings is not a LB nor DE that fits our system, and then 3rd rounder Perkins has "bust" stamped on his forehead. Callahan goes on to say he was shelved because he was not in shape.

If Jordan Davis falls to #21 you have to take him, but the Chargers stand in our way . so.......Drafting Logan Hall might be a similar plan. Can play inside or out. Remember Aaron Donald is 6'1" and 280lbs.

To summarize; Getting Parker made a WR less of a Draft 'have-to-get". I think BB would still consider front seven on Defense a target (plus CB and LB with speed). We still need Team speed on defense so adding Ferrell who is young and not the cost of a Clowney, helps. You still need a WR and at least one more OL prior to the Draft.

OBJ? o.k. but he's not ready until November (ACL)....this is the same situation as Jameson at #21. Both are great to have but figure in 2023. Mr. Kraft is looking at 2022 in no uncertain terms. You have a kid on the Jaguars in the same situation as Parker on their depth chart. Laviska Shenault can be a Deebo type. Had 63 receptions lat year on a terrible Team. He is being shopped. Rather have his than a Draft pick WR mid round.

O-Line? J.C. Tretter would be my pick. Was a CAP causality. Rated top three Centers in Pass Pro the last three years running. Can play Guard. So RG and back up for Andrews. Only 31. Cheaper than Mason and much better than Ferentz. Now Draft a OT.

That is my take. I have mentioned these players before bit I give you my reasons.
Thoughts?
DW Toys

 

[50-yard-line]

Cousin, Round peg/square hole in the Cards offense. Historically all their receivers are on the larger size like Fitzgerald in the past. Bolden was another . Presently Hopkins is 6'1" 216, Wesley is 6'4" 206 (just signed his tender). AJ Green last year was 6'4" 211. Now Rondale Moore is the outlier but was a rookie last year.

It makes all the sense in the world for the Cards to consider a trade of Isabella for Harry. We get some CAP relief.
DW Toys

We'd get even more cap relief if the Cards traded for Harry with a pick...

 

[patfanken]

Yes, he can compete for the non-existent #6WR position.

Parker, Bourne, Agholor, Myers, Draftee

Or are you consider Isabella instead of a drafting a WR in the first four rounds?

I think that depends on how well we like the receivers likely to be there in the 3rd round. If we find someone we like a lot in that range you go an pick him and forget about Isabella. However if you are just meh on what's there, then I think Isabella offers a more immediate potential producer at that "#6" guy,

WR's are soon going to evolve into that area where drafting them early WILL be a wiser decision than in the past, but not necessarily because the position is so important, but because with the salaries of even good but not great WR's is now OVER $20MM/yr and truly elite guys will be approaching $30/yr, you REALLY will need to start developing your own guys in order to keep your cap costs under control

 

[Ochmed Jones]

1.) Bb is a value drafter.
2.) not all positions have the same value.

If we were to graph bb’s drafting trends, where the x axis are the rounds of the draft and the y axis are positions, we would see that in the first round he clearly values certain positions the most:

1st round - bb values front seven defenders, offensive tackles, and tight ends the most.

For purposes of this draft, there probably won’t be any offensive tackles or tight ends that make sense for us in the first round. Maybe one of the offensive tackles drops, but that is highly unlikely!

That leaves front seven defenders.

 

[Zuma]

Bottom line is that with Jennings, Uche, and Perkins, the Pats already gave the raw talent to cover that end opposite Judon, so what gives? How about we really see what these guys can do?

IMO the coaches expect those 3 and a couple other youngins to be a part of the plan going forward. The coaches will put them in the best possible situations to succeed. We know the LB room will look very different. I think they are part of the solution along with a high draft pick.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

IMO the coaches expect those 3 and a couple other youngins to be a part of the plan going forward. The coaches will put them in the best possible situations to succeed. We know the LB room will look very different. I think they are part of the solution along with a high draft pick.

Seems like I remember teams like Buffalo that ran at judon had tremendous success running and with RPO plays.

 

[Zuma]

Seems like I remember teams like Buffalo that ran at judon had tremendous success running and with RPO plays.

Right. We really need Davis up front and lighter faster LB’s. I really think that’s the way to go.

I’ll be shocked (be prepared to be shocked) if they don’t draft a 230ish pound LB in the 1st 3 rounds.