Debunking Brady being "carried" to Super Bowls by his defense

[sb1]

I found a site where you can find advanced stats on offense and defense per year with filters. One of these stats is EPA - expected points provided by defense or offense per game and per play. For offense positive EPA is good and negative EPA is bad and for defense it's the other way around.

rbsdm.com/stats

One of @MAC10's posts on this topic gave me an idea so I did some research about all of Brady's Super Bowl defenses and found some interesting facts.


Conclusions

• Not really seeing evidence here that Brady carried by a great dominant defense to the Super Bowl. His defenses were good, but being Super Bowl teams that shouldn't surprise anyone.
• The red numbers show the defenses were actually a liability in the playoffs that year (positive EPA which is bad for a defense) and they won the SB anyway
• The 2004 defense was #1 in EPA per play in the playoffs but that's offset by the fact the 2004 Patriots OFFENSE was also #1 in the same category.
• Our 2003, 2014 and 2018 defenses in the playoffs weren't nearly as dominant as we think they were, being responsible for allowing more points than the other way around. So that totally nullifies the idea that Brady was carried by them to the Super Bowl
• Looked up the numbers for the 2011 and 2017 Patriots defense, two of the worst Super Bowl defenses. Both of these would be red numbers (positive EPA) in the in the chart above. So that shows Brady carried them to the Super Bowl even if they didn't win it.

Here are the top 5 QB's who were really carried by their defense playing great in the playoffs and look at the difference between these numbers and the ones above:


Brady is nowhere to be found in the top 5 but guess who appears twice?

 

[sb1]

I went a little further and took the offensive EPA for each of these years plus playoffs in order to get a sense of who carried the team that year. You'll see how much of an impact Brady had by offensive EPA per dropback - this tells you Brady's contribution to that offense minus the running game.

"Who carried team" was based on taking the offensive EPA and comparing it to defense EPA in the chart above. If the difference between offense EPA and defense EPA in the playoffs was less than 1/100th of a point per play I said both carried the team that year.



Conclusion? The argument that Brady was carried by his defense to the championship is at least debatable in 2001 (and this number includes Bledsoe playing most of the AFCCG anyway) but since then it's total nonsense and this proves it. It's clear that Brady did WAY more of the carrying than the other way around.

 

[Ian]

I feel like this will be less of an argument as soon as people realize that occasionally even the best quarterbacks have an off game and they end up winning due their defense doing enough to get the victory. But the argument trying to diminish Brady is silly. He’s a once in a generation QB just like Belichick became, and is, one of the great coaches of all time. You can’t take that away from either one, it doesn’t have to be one or the other. Was he perfect 100% of the time? Of course not, that’s why it paid to have one of the best defensive minds as his head coach and most of us are happy with the way it worked out

 

[Ring 6]

I don’t understand the value of taking the plays in a game and using them to created “expected points” when you actually have a true result of actual points.
The players that created the expectation of points either actually created the points or did not.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I went a little further and took the offensive EPA for each of these years plus playoffs in order to get a sense of who carried the team that year. You'll see how much of an impact Brady had by offensive EPA per dropback - this tells you Brady's contribution to that offense minus the running game.

"Who carried team" was based on taking the offensive EPA and comparing it to defense EPA in the chart above. If the difference between offense EPA and defense EPA in the playoffs was less than 1/100th of a point per play I said both carried the team that year.

View attachment 42371

Conclusion? The argument that Brady was carried by his defense to the championship is at least debatable in 2001 (and this number includes Bledsoe playing most of the AFCCG anyway) but since then it's total nonsense and this proves it. It's clear that Brady did WAY more of the carrying than the other way around.

I never said Brady "was carried" to any super bowl by the defense. I merely said that in a number of patriots super bowl games that defense was the main reason the Pats won that game. I don't think Brady ever performed so poorly in a super bowl like Manning did in 2015.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I feel like this will be less of an argument as soon as people realize that occasionally even the best quarterbacks have an off game and they end up winning due their defense doing enough to get the victory. But the argument trying to diminish Brady is silly. He’s a once in a generation QB just like Belichick became, and is, one of the great coaches of all time. You can’t take that away from either one, it doesn’t have to be one or the other. Was he perfect 100% of the time? Of course not, that’s why it paid to have one of the best defensive minds as his head coach and most of us are happy with the way it worked out

Not Montana in the super bowl

 

[Ring 6]

Not Montana in the super bowl

No with him his poor games kept them from the SB.
Those were against good defenses though, not the slugs he faced in the SB.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

No with him his poor games kept them from the SB.
Those were against good defenses though, not the slugs he faced in the SB.

Huh? He defeated 3 MVPs in the SB. And the 1984 Dolphins were ranked 6th in points allowed and the 1989 Broncos 1st. Granted the 49ers did not face the best defenses of the era in the SB since they were all in the NFC, their SB opponents were pretty darn good.

 

[PatsWSB47]

I went a little further and took the offensive EPA for each of these years plus playoffs in order to get a sense of who carried the team that year. You'll see how much of an impact Brady had by offensive EPA per dropback - this tells you Brady's contribution to that offense minus the running game.

"Who carried team" was based on taking the offensive EPA and comparing it to defense EPA in the chart above. If the difference between offense EPA and defense EPA in the playoffs was less than 1/100th of a point per play I said both carried the team that year.

View attachment 42371

Conclusion? The argument that Brady was carried by his defense to the championship is at least debatable in 2001 (and this number includes Bledsoe playing most of the AFCCG anyway) but since then it's total nonsense and this proves it. It's clear that Brady did WAY more of the carrying than the other way around.

You just don't understand. If you take away some of those stats and focus on just a few, it clearly shows that Brady hasn't accomplished anything. You just haven't narrowed and moved the goal posts enough. Perhaps if you had attended an elite school..........

 

[PatsWSB47]

I found a site where you can find advanced stats on offense and defense per year with filters. One of these stats is EPA - expected points provided by defense or offense per game and per play. For offense positive EPA is good and negative EPA is bad and for defense it's the other way around.

rbsdm.com/stats

One of @MAC10's posts on this topic gave me an idea so I did some research about all of Brady's Super Bowl defenses and found some interesting facts.
View attachment 42369

Conclusions

• Not really seeing evidence here that Brady carried by a great dominant defense to the Super Bowl. His defenses were good, but being Super Bowl teams that shouldn't surprise anyone.
• The red numbers show the defenses were actually a liability in the playoffs that year (positive EPA which is bad for a defense) and they won the SB anyway
• The 2004 defense was #1 in EPA per play in the playoffs but that's offset by the fact the 2004 Patriots OFFENSE was also #1 in the same category.
• Our 2003, 2014 and 2018 defenses in the playoffs weren't nearly as dominant as we think they were, being responsible for allowing more points than the other way around. So that totally nullifies the idea that Brady was carried by them to the Super Bowl
• Looked up the numbers for the 2011 and 2017 Patriots defense, two of the worst Super Bowl defenses. Both of these would be red numbers (positive EPA) in the in the chart above. So that shows Brady carried them to the Super Bowl even if they didn't win it.

Here are the top 5 QB's who were really carried by their defense playing great in the playoffs and look at the difference between these numbers and the ones above:
View attachment 42368

Brady is nowhere to be found in the top 5 but guess who appears twice?

Thanks for this! Over the years Colts, Jets, Steelers, Eagles, hell, fans from practically every team had been attacking Brady and Pats accomplishments. Recently its even been some Patriots fans using the same attacks. They all have their scrapbooks full of narrow arguments for all occasions armed and ready to fire the instant someone says something positive about him.

 

[Ring 6]

Huh? He defeated 3 MVPs in the SB. And the 1984 Dolphins were ranked 6th in points allowed and the 1989 Broncos 1st. Granted the 49ers did not face the best defenses of the era in the SB since they were all in the NFC, their SB opponents were pretty darn good.

The defenses he faced sucked. Those teams were patsies in a long NFC run of sb blowouts.

 

[gobesmug]

From 2011 to 2018 the Pats went to AFC championship game 8 straight times and went to the superbowl 5 of those 8 times.

That doesn't happen without both Brady and Bill.

I've grown tired on hating Bill, he and Brady are the GOAT duo, any other narrative is pointless and full of flaws

 

[Ring 6]

Not Montana in the super bowl

It’s too bad he went 4 years in his prime without winning a playoff game and putting up post season stats of:

46/88 51.2% 503 yards (168 a game) 0 tds 4 Ints.
And he put up 3,3 and 3 points (before being benched for young in the last one) that’s a passer rating if 50.5.
Hey 9 points in 4 years, he was perfect huh?

 

[SHOWTIME15]

It’s too bad he went 4 years in his prime without winning a playoff game and putting up post season stats of:

46/88 51.2% 503 yards (168 a game) 0 tds 4 Ints.
And he put up 3,3 and 3 points (before being benched for young in the last one) that’s a passer rating if 50.5.
Hey 9 points in 4 years, he was perfect huh?

In the super bowl, yes.

BTW, Montana never went four straight seasons without a playoff win. Where are you getting your facts from? And as a Niner, the only time Montana lost a playoff game was to a team that won the super bowl that same year or won shortly thereafter with the exception of the 87 Vikings.

 

[Ring 6]

In the super bowl, yes.

BTW, Montana never went four straight seasons without a playoff win. Where are you getting your facts from? And as a Niner, the only time Montana lost a playoff game was to a team that won the super bowl that same year or won shortly thereafter with the exception of the 87 Vikings.

My mistake 3 years. Those stats covered 3 consecutive post seasons. 3 one and dones, 0 offensive TDs and 9 total
Points.
That is far, far worse than advancing ti the SB and losing. But you knew that.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

My mistake 3 years. Those stats covered 3 consecutive post seasons. 3 one and dones, 0 offensive TDs and 9 total
Points.
That is far, far worse than advancing ti the SB and losing. But you knew that.

It’s what happens when you face the greatest defensive coach of all time in two of those three years. Montana lost to quality opponents in the playoffs, not Eli or Foles.

 

[Ian]

Not Montana in the super bowl

You're dreaming if you think Montana goes 9-0 (or 10-0). Highly unlikely.

Again, I see what you're doing but you're just digging for flaws that sure, are there, just like other players - but they're few and far between. However, Brady's overall body of work exceeds Montana's, as does the number of rings. Period. "It is what it is"

 

[Ring 6]

It’s what happens when you face the greatest defensive coach of all time in two of those three years. Montana lost to quality opponents in the playoffs, not Eli or Foles.

9 points in 3 games. There is no rationalizing or excusing that.
He lost to Phil Simms and Wade Wilson. He would have lost to Ryan Leaf if the other team trotted him out there against 3 Point Joe.

 

[Ring 6]

You're dreaming if you think Montana goes 9-0 (or 10-0). Highly unlikely.

Again, I see what you're doing but you're just digging for flaws that sure, are there, just like other players - but they're few and far between. However, Brady's overall body of work exceeds Montana's, as does the number of rings. Period. "It is what it is"

3 Point Joe couldn’t go 9-0 or 10-0 because he couldn’t win the games it took to get there.

 

[Ian]

Honestly, @MAC10 I'd be on board your train for that discussion if Brady was 6-4 or 5-5, which is why I sort of always preferred to see them get bounced in the playoffs than to see him lose a Super Bowl. I didn't have a lot of confidence against Seattle and the way it was looking, I didn't think the defense would keep them off the board. I had the same feeling about the Rams. Yet, they won both games and he did enough to help them win. That's what the great ones do.

You can keep harping on the Giants - but we've covered it. On Philadelphia, we've talked about that one as well because Brady outplayed Foles, but the defense never recovered with Butler out. Foles played out of his mind that day, which has sort of been a theme when it comes to no name guys lighting up their defense (look at Davis Mills this past season)...it's strange and I don't quite get it. But I have more issues with their defensive philosophies over that span than I do anything else. But that's a story for another thread

Needless to say, I don't get what we're still doing. He's the best ever. I know you're trying to needle people, but the stats and the championships are what they are