Player Signing Report: Patriots Acquire DeVante Parker from Dolphins

[Jim Beankie]

People misuse stats so readily they almost have no value any longer.
Throwing around separation, catch % and Yac without accounting for the routes the players runs is more than useless.
Here is a great example

In 2020 Deebo Samuel had a catch rate of 75% and average YAC of 12.1.
In 2021 he had a catch rate of just 64% and YAC of 10.
Did he decline?
No, in 2020 his total catches were a combined -7 yards downfield, or -0.2 while in 2021 his average catch was 8.3 yards downfield.
His catch percent was less, but he performed better catching the ball because he wasn’t only getting easy to catch screen passes. His YAC actually improved because he was catching passes that we less conducive to running after the catch but the stat looks like he did worse.
I don’t know where you find separation stats but those were no doubt different because he ran an entirely different package of routes.
On almost every pass play a receiver runs a deep sideline route. 90% of the time they are never looked at and have a corner defending almost explicitly against that route. Counting that toward separation, counting screen passes, shallow crossing routes, etc make such a stat useless without analyzing how the number was built.

The separation stats are found in NextGenStats, which are very official (based on how they track it):

NGS | NFL Next Gen Stats

NFL’s Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics.

nextgenstats.nfl.com

TBH, I'm not the biggest fan of it as well as they measure separation per target. There are plenty of times when a QB throws it in the direction of a WR where it's not an obvious throwaway (like a lot of ultraconservative throws Mac threw to Jakobi), but it counts anyway.

 

[PatsFan2]

I'm hopeful but we're not the only team trying to get better. The other division teams that beat us twice last season, made significant moves to get better. Imo Parker is an improvement, but is it enough? The other concern is if Mac hits a sophomore slump. He may get 5-10% better, yet because the other teams now know his tendencies and weaknesses, it may overcome this slight improvement. I can't wait to find out.

We all know what it comes down to in the end in Football (((drum roll))) Good health...may the healthier Team wins.

 

[Pats2000]

There is no shortage of injuries in Parker’s history. However, the hamstring injuries stand out prominently. According to draftsharks.com, Parker has had 15 documented injuries since entering the NFL in 2015. That is an average of more than two injuries per season since he was drafted. Of those 15 injuries, 7 are recorded as some sort of hamstring injury of varying severities. Source How long is DeVante Parker out? Injury timeline, return date, updates on Dolphins WR

That is the very definition of a recurring injury, but I don't know if he had lingering problems with his HS after he was cleared to play (which would have made it more of chronic problem).

Up to 68% of players get injured in a season, most of them miss some time. It's a brutal game. He's still going to make the team better and hopefully displace Harry

 

[50-yard-line]

How come whenever people go nuts on the way the season ended, no one ever mentions that Dugger was hurt, JC was playing hurt, Mills was out, and of course, Jones was out?

So, here we get a solid, proven player for the AAV price of a Ted Karras, and people here are grumping and complaining. Talk about a symphony of the miserable.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

Jones is no more conservative than Brady was, if he sees the opportunity he will deliver it, the receivers just need to be able to give him it.

Nah that's not true. There's been multiple games this year and even breakdown videos of Mac clearing missing guys downfield because he checked down too early.

 

[mgteich]

Not sure I understand your last paragraph. The goal was always win Division, then try to get HFA, then try to get #1 seed.

It seems many are just satisfied with backing into the playoffs, where the chances of making a deep run are much lower. Is this team good enough to back into the playoffs? Sure. So, we're good enough to compete w/ 6 or 7 teams for the 3 lowest playoff spots. Is that the fruit of having a #2 D & #6 O? Something doesn't jive here.

Yes, the goal is always to win all your games. OK?

If you think that it is critical to play at home fine. You might check recent history. Ditto with regard to a bye.

Winning the division is very important to FANS and for bragging rights . It means a home game.

What is "really" important is to get into the playoffs, be healthy for the playoffs, and to have momentum going into the playoffs.

 

[mgteich]

He's still going to make the team better and hopefully displace Harry

Yes, that is what makes the team better. He replaces Harry.

 

[JMC00]

 

[Ring 6]

The separation stats are found in NextGenStats, which are very official (based on how they track it):

NGS | NFL Next Gen Stats

NFL’s Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics.

nextgenstats.nfl.com

TBH, I'm not the biggest fan of it as well as they measure separation per target. There are plenty of times when a QB throws it in the direction of a WR where it's not an obvious throwaway (like a lot of ultraconservative throws Mac threw to Jakobi), but it counts anyway.

Seperation stats cannot be “official”. It’s some dude looking at film and making a judgment. An official stat is not an interpretation it a measure of results.

 

[venecol]

Yes, the goal is always to win all your games. OK?

If you think that it is critical to play at home fine. You might check recent history. Ditto with regard to a bye.

Winning the division is very important to FANS and for bragging rights . It means a home game.

What is "really" important is to get into the playoffs, be healthy for the playoffs, and to have momentum going into the playoffs.

The realistic goal isn't to win all games but some wins have more value than others, like division games. Assuming all teams go 2-0 against the Jete, it would be nice if you can go 3-1 or 2-2 against the other teams. The Pats went 1-3 in b2b seasons against the other 2 division opponents. They also ended the season with a 2-3 record in b2b seasons. That's hardly an improvement despite winning 3 more games & losing 1 fewer.

Winning the Division is more than for 'bragging' rights, it guarantees a seat in the playoffs w/ a better chance of success. Since 1975, only 11 teams in the WC have made it to the SB with 7 going on to win it.

The point being that despite having the #2 D and #6 O in pts, the team didn't improve at all within the division (3-3). Yes, the team made it to the playoffs, but the results were hardly reflective of a #2D & #6O.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

The Goal used to be to win the Division. Funny how times have changed.

that's weird ...I thought sports were static.

 

[50-yard-line]

The realistic goal isn't to win all games but some wins have more value than others, like division games. Assuming all teams go 2-0 against the Jete, it would be nice if you can go 3-1 or 2-2 against the other teams. The Pats went 1-3 in b2b seasons against the other 2 division opponents. They also ended the season with a 2-3 record in b2b seasons. That's hardly an improvement despite winning 3 more games & losing 1 fewer.

Winning the Division is more than for 'bragging' rights, it guarantees a seat in the playoffs w/ a better chance of success. Since 1975, only 11 teams in the WC have made it to the SB with 7 going on to win it.

The point being that despite having the #2 D and #6 O in pts, the team didn't improve at all within the division (3-3). Yes, the team made it to the playoffs, but the results were hardly reflective of a #2D & #6O.

The first game against Miami last year was a travesty. The Pats dominated tht game. They had the Dolphins beat and blew it...in their QB's first NFL game.

The last game against Buffalo, for all you might want to say, was a JC Jackson dropped pick away from being a potential win.

The Tampa game, the Dallas game...

This is not a bad football team. They tanked in the end, with multiple injuries in the secondary, and a LB corps that clearly needed - and is now getting - a revamp.

Pats this year go as far as Mac's progression can take them on offense, and on their ability to create the new scheme they're clearly shooting for on Defense.

 

[captain insano]

Up to 68% of players get injured in a season, most of them miss some time. It's a brutal game. He's still going to make the team better and hopefully displace Harry

And some players get injured more than others.

 

[venecol]

The first game against Miami last year was a travesty. The Pats dominated tht game. They had the Dolphins beat and blew it...in their QB's first NFL game.

The last game against Buffalo, for all you might want to say, was a JC Jackson dropped pick away from being a potential win.

The Tampa game, the Dallas game...

This is not a bad football team. They tanked in the end, with multiple injuries in the secondary, and a LB corps that clearly needed - and is now getting - a revamp.

Pats this year go as far as Mac's progression can take them on offense, and on their ability to create the new scheme they're clearly shooting for on Defense.

Of course, I hope you're right, but so far the Parker trade is the only move that's made the team slightly better than last year, though the loss of JC & Karras is yet to be addressed. I know, it's early.

 

[PatsFan2]

Jump ball Joe or is it jump ball Mac??

 

[Jim Beankie]

Seperation stats cannot be “official”. It’s some dude looking at film and making a judgment. An official stat is not an interpretation it a measure of results.

I know what you mean, but you might want to find different wording because this guy does the same thing... pretty official result after watching film and making a judgment.

 

[venecol]

I know what you mean, but you might want to find different wording because this guy does the same thing... pretty official result after watching film and making a judgment.

NextGen is actually more accurate since they have a tracker on the ball and helmets. Can't get any more accurate than that. I guess Andy doesn't know that.

 

[Ring 6]

I know what you mean, but you might want to find different wording because this guy does the same thing... pretty official result after watching film and making a judgment.

You are kidding right?

 

[mgteich]

The realistic goal isn't to win all games but some wins have more value than others, like division games. Assuming all teams go 2-0 against the Jete, it would be nice if you can go 3-1 or 2-2 against the other teams. The Pats went 1-3 in b2b seasons against the other 2 division opponents. They also ended the season with a 2-3 record in b2b seasons. That's hardly an improvement despite winning 3 more games & losing 1 fewer.

Winning the Division is more than for 'bragging' rights, it guarantees a seat in the playoffs w/ a better chance of success. Since 1975, only 11 teams in the WC have made it to the SB with 7 going on to win it.

The point being that despite having the #2 D and #6 O in pts, the team didn't improve at all within the division (3-3). Yes, the team made it to the playoffs, but the results were hardly reflective of a #2D & #6O.

I agree that Division games are more important than other games.

 

[Joey007]

That's a very interesting question, Joey. Let me TRY and explain my choice. I felt Aghular was very much underused last season. It seemed like he spent much of his time running clear out routes, than being an actual potential target. I don't know if that was because of Mac's rookieness, or because a belief that Aghular was limited in some way by McDaniel. I believe it was more of the former.

We all seem to want a WR who can "take the top off the defense". Well Aghular actually HAS that kind of speed. But we rarely saw him run stop and go kinds of routes, or the deep in cuts we see speed guys like Hill do routinely. Now was that because he couldn't run those kinds of routes well, or was it Mac wasn't ready to throw them in his first year. I'm hoping it was the latter and he will be better at it this season.

The passing offense this season could be greatly changed with Smith and Keane lining up at TE/FB and Wing positions creating even more dynamic problems for defenses to deal with. I don't think the addition of Parker/draft picks is going to change the fact that the running game is still going to be the heart and soul of our offense and that our passing offense is going to be based on how we can take advantage of teams that will be stacking their defenses to stop that run

As to Myers, I LOVE the kid. He is a classic overachiever, But the fact remains that he is limited as a receiver. He isn't fast. He isn't quick, and he can be taken out by good man defense. The very fact that he gets the production he DOES get is remarkable. My placing him as my 4th WR doesn't diminish what he's done. But it DOES recognize those limitations. In my humble assessment, Aghular offers a unique skill set that Myers doesn't. He can run fast. And in a league where speed kills, Myers can't kill, BUT he does have his place, but in my mind it's as quality depth.

But if say Tre Nixon or some rookie comes to camp and shows HE can do that job on the outside, I'd let go of Nelson in a nanosecond. But as of THIS moment, there is no one on the roster that can replace Aghular's skill set and until we do, we need to keep him. Just a thought

Very thought out answer, Ken. I can understand where you’re coming from. I don’t disagree that Agholor’s ceiling for his ability is far higher.

This is basically an overachiever vs. underachiever situation. I trust Meyers a bit more to provide consistent production, and he’s proven that. But Nelson at his peak ability provides an element to the offense Meyers cannot provide. If Meyers is WR4, that is actually a great sign for the offense.