No matter what, this was a successful season.

[Ring 6]

I've wonder if that was what Bill was doing.

Maybe he felt the road to successful rookie QB development wasn't paved with that untalented bunch from last season.

If it happened, great, but did Bill really built a team to win now with a rookie QB?




White might be back, but they need to find Mac Jones his own James White.

Since the beginning of free agency first year cap hits have been substantially lower. It has been the rule of thumb to pay a low salary in year 1 along with the entire signing bonus. This is not out of the ordinary at all. It’s the way the league works.

 

[RIpats88]

To basically have one down year (that was still 7-9) to possibly 10-7 or 11-6 a year after losing the GOAT is a success.

No matter what those who are negative think. Look at the Jets...

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

McMillian, Jennings, McGrone and Perkins

are comparable to Hightower and Van Noy

IMO, only with those with very, very strong preferences and beliefs in the value of inexperienced players over veterans.

McMillan (242 lbs) and McGrone (234 lbs.) are smaller and faster guys. How are they like Hightower (260 lbs) and Van Noy (251 lbs.)? Perkins is like Van Noy at Outside LB, and Jennings is like Hightower at Inside LB, but how are McMillan and McGrone like either?

 

[Ring 6]

McMillan (242 lbs) and McGrone (234 lbs.) are smaller and faster guys. How are they like Hightower (260 lbs) and Van Noy (251 lbs.)? Perkins is like Van Noy at Outside LB, and Jennings is like Hightower at Inside LB, but how are McMillan and McGrone like either?

Hightower hadn’t been himself this year and when he is, he is THE most important piece on the defense.
Getting Hightower to his 2018-2019 level for a 4 game run, and getting top play from the OL, so Jones have time to get the ball down the field and push the envelope with chunk plays, would give this team a chance to make a run and beat anyone.

 

[50-yard-line]

It’s been a successful year. The Patriots appear to have hit big on the draft, and that’s what you MUST do. Mac has played well above my expectations...and there’s nothing more valuable than a good QB on a rookie contract. Bill made me eat crow for thinking he had overestimated the roster, as a lot of players from previous drafts have started to play more of a role. All that said, you can call this a “rebuild” or whatever you want…it’s semantics, but however you define this year, keep in mind that outside optimistic player projections (like Mac and Barmore), they’re not in some great advantageous position the next few years from a cap standpoint.

Here are 12 players they committed to last offseason (Van Noy is the only one who could potentially be cut with reasonable cap savings.) In 2021, these players counted 45.3M against the cap; in 2022, these players are scheduled to count 100.5M against the cap. The cap will increase about 15%, or 26M in 2022, and the Patriots do have about 7M rolled over. Still, that doesn’t come close to accounting for this.

2021, 2022 - Cap Hits (may be restructured)
Judon: 6.3M, 16.5M
Henry: 6.8M, 15.5M
Smith: 5.6M, 13.8M
Wynn: 3.6M, 10.4M
Godchaux: 4.0M, 10.3M
Van Noy: 4.3M, 7.3M
Wise: 3.7M, 6.3M
Mills: 4.5M, 6.1M
Bourne: 3.1M, 5.7M
Andrews, 1.7M, 5.3M
Guy: 1.7M, 3.3M

Total: 45.3M, 100.5M

This roster was built to win now, and as you can see by the numbers, this is when the real charges come, almost like ”buy now, pay later sale.” Undoubtedly they’ll restructure a lot of deals, though that’s not a great long-term solution...I compare it to mortgaging properties in Monopoly…short-term cash that damages the long-term outlook...it’s a lot more sensible to do it for players who can be extended and are playing at a high level. Fact is, there’s a lot of guaranteed, unpaid money remaining on these deals, and a lot of these players aren’t likely to perform at the level they’ll be owed soon.

In 2022, the Patriots have about 31.2M. They don’t have many disposable contracts where they can must cut a low value player who is overpaid. Hightower is already included in that figure. Notable FAs are Jackson, McCourty, Hightower, Brown, Phillips, and Meyers. Jackson is likely to have a $20M AAV market. I’m sure they’ll figure out how to move cap space around as every team does, but it will be a huge challenge sustaining their current level of talent let alone improving. You can hope for major QB improvement and more draft picks hitting big, but every team is playing that lottery.

Most of those contracts can be restructured to move money forward - and the Pats have a crap-ton of money in 2023.

They're not strapped next year, though I doubt it will look anything like this off-season.

 

[‘Mondre]

My max expectation for this season was nine wins and maybe sneak into the playoffs, given a rookie QB and a bunch of new players.

Now it looks like 10 wins and a playoff game are almost in the bag...with a little upside even. I'm tempted to say they "underperformed," but I think the truth still is they will have already exceeded expectations before the Playoffs begin.

My imagination recalls that once a well-coached team with solid QB play gets to January, anything can happen especially if a strong D plays the way it can and a few lucky bounces go their way....we all know that they lost a couple of SB's to teams that "didn't belong there" (helmet catch, Philly Special)....maybe it's their turn to even the tables.

Man we gotta accept that the team loaded up (somewhat) aimlessly, so 9-10 wins was right on par.

…so loading up this off-season = +2 wins.

now given the COACH… you’d imagine that adds maybe one to two wins tho…

…which we might get!

in short… bb equals +two wins. Mac as a rookie vs washed up cam = same thing. Team post dynasties is still in lukewarm waters. The chiefs selling out and doing what they’ve done = a problem and an opportunity. The afc being flat = problem and opportunity…

2021 won’t be the year that defines how we perform in the first 5 post Brady years… and the st and defense will be more important than tHe QuArTeRbAcK in figuring that out… (or a flashy wr, although I do want that one day too)

of course all of this pseudoanalysis is upended if ol play gets worse. I admit I know the players, but haven’t analyzed as much as the skill positions.

football is the ultimate team sport and has more parity in its leagues than basketball or baseball. Why I love it.

 

[‘Mondre]

To basically have one down year (that was still 7-9) to possibly 10-7 or 11-6 a year after losing the GOAT is a success.

No matter what those who are negative think. Look at the Jets...

We also lost one of the goat wrs.

troy brown was arguably one of the goat multi-pos players.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I am sure there will be a thread(s) about what needs to be done to move to the next level when this season is done. As well as looking at the areas mentioned in the thread I can only hope that in the draft we find a (Tee Higgins / CD Lamb / Jaylon Waddle type to inject some fire into the offence for Mac.

The chances of the Patriots hitting on a wide receiver in the draft are about the chances that you win the powerball tomorrow on a single ticket. This organization has shown an utter inability to identify and draft wideouts.

The incompetence is so gross that N'Keal 'I can get maybe 2 catches a game but look I can block!" Harry was our latest #1 draft pick at that position. In fact I'm suspecting that BB let his dog draft Harry, that's why we missed out on at least a half dozen wide receivers who were far BETTER drafted after his spot!

 

[mgteich]

McMillan (242 lbs) and McGrone (234 lbs.) are smaller and faster guys. How are they like Hightower (260 lbs) and Van Noy (251 lbs.)? Perkins is like Van Noy at Outside LB, and Jennings is like Hightower at Inside LB, but how are McMillan and McGrone like either?

My point was these four are NOT replacements for having Hightower and Van Noy.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

My point was these four are NOT replacements for having Hightower and Van Noy.

My question was "why not"? They are younger, faster, and have a year under their belts. If not our draft picks then who will we have? BB does not hold onto busts so I assume they can play. Who are you expecting?

 

[‘Mondre]

My question was "why not"? They are younger, faster, and have a year under their belts. If not our draft picks then who will we have? BB does not hold onto busts so I assume they can play. Who are you expecting?

Leadership is a factor for the ht replacement

 

[Scotty]

The chances of the Patriots hitting on a wide receiver in the draft are about the chances that you win the powerball tomorrow on a single ticket. This organization has shown an utter inability to identify and draft wideouts.

The incompetence is so gross that N'Keal 'I can get maybe 2 catches a game but look I can block!" Harry was our latest #1 draft pick at that position. In fact I'm suspecting that BB let his dog draft Harry, that's why we missed out on at least a half dozen wide receivers who were far BETTER drafted after his spot!

Like the last thing that was inside Pandoras box............Hope !.........Lol

 

[sb1]

we all know that they lost a couple of SB's to teams that "didn't belong there" (helmet catch, Philly Special)

We didn’t really belong there in 2001 but yeah the Giants certainly didn’t and got us twice. Time for us to get one back on another team!

 

[JMC00]

but the last two weeks have exposed the defense as a paper tiger.

What did the defense have to do with the offense not showing up in the 1st 3 qtrs of the colts game and ST gifting them 10 points? Take the ST blunders away and colts score 10 points because Pats would have played that final drive different and not tried to stack the box to force a punt.

As for this week ya they played subpar and yet it still basically came down to the refs making a bad call when the C false started and JC Jackson dropping a pick. 14 pts off the board there. They also were once again not helped by the offense. Yes the offense had 3 drives of 75 yard TDs but here was the other drives

3 plays -6 yards 1:28 TOP
3 plays 14 yards 1:04 TOP (INT)
3 plays 7 yards 1:34 TOP
5 plays 7 yards 0:45 TOP

4 of the 6 drives didn't go more than 15 yards or hold the ball for more than 90 seconds. That is just a tough thing for any defense to overcome when they are up against a top 5 offense in the league

I get the defense hasn't been great the last 2 weeks but the offense and ST hasn't helped them.

Best example to sum it up was the INT at midfield that put the bildos near the redzone. Defense ended up making a 4th down stop. They bailed the offense out on that one but offense didn't really return the favor

 

[JMC00]

The chances of the Patriots hitting on a wide receiver in the draft are about the chances that you win the powerball tomorrow on a single ticket. This organization has shown an utter inability to identify and draft wideouts.

Stares in Julian Edelman.

They also drafted a WR that was developing nicely and helped win a SB but had rotten luck in a pre-seson game.

Also Jakobi Meyers while not a draft pick was signed right after the draft. He's doing pretty ok.

Pats also are one of the teams that spend the least amount of draft capital on WRs so comparing them to other teams who spend 2-4x the amount of capital trying to draft WRs is not a good comparison.

Over the last 10 years they have picked WR before the 4th round only 2 times. Going even further they have selected only 9 WRs in the entire draft since 2010. 5 of them were picked in the 6th or 7th round.

Pats can't draft WRs because.........they really don't draft WRs. 9 WRs in 12 drafts and 5 of them were 6th & 7th round fliers

 

[amfootball]

The issue is not whether Mac is losing games. He's not.

HOWEVER, and this is a big however, Mac is NOT winning games for us. Just compare the QB's during our losses.

He has 4 picks over the past 2 games.

 

[amfootball]

To basically have one down year (that was still 7-9) to possibly 10-7 or 11-6 a year after losing the GOAT is a success.

No matter what those who are negative think. Look at the Jets...

It is a good point but we are Patriots fans who enjoyed a 20 year run of unparalleled success with 6 chips. To not be a legit contender for the SB every year is like being the Jets for us. Lol

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

It is a good point but we are Patriots fans who enjoyed a 20 year run of unparalleled success with 6 chips. To not be a legit contender for the SB every year is like being the Jets for us. Lol

I think we need to refocus expectations. Weve won six rings and had how many afc east titles and winning seasons? We will probably... closer to certainly never witness that success again for our franchise. Its kinda sad to think but it doesnt mean Mac cant win us a ring.

With Belichick? Its doable but Mac needs to make a jump over next two seasons.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I think we need to refocus expectations. Weve won six rings and had how many afc east titles and winning seasons? We will probably... closer to certainly never witness that success again for our franchise. Its kinda sad to think but it doesnt mean Mac cant win us a ring.

With Belichick? Its doable but Mac needs to make a jump over next two seasons.

I'm afraid we might be entering the Don Shula end-of-career phase where BB is getting old and the staff around him isn't good enough. Team will nose dive after BB leaves, his anticipated successor will be a total disaster trainwreck.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I'm afraid we might be entering the Don Shula end-of-career phase where BB is getting old and the staff around him isn't good enough. Team will nose dive after BB leaves, his anticipated successor will be a total disaster trainwreck.

Really? I thought that Josh McDaniels was in line to be coach. Don't you think that he will be better in his second turn as a head coach?