In effect BB pushed him out by not agreeing to pay $25m.
I want to see Mac Jones' monster contract extension at $35-40m per year in a few years.
So Brady, WHO IS NOT A NEW ENGLAND PATRIOT, left the team after the 2019 season. LEFT. THE. TEAM. And yeah, however you want to put it, he just wasn't feelin' the Bill thing anymore. (I doubt it was because he'd have to sit in front of 7-11 asking for change in a styrofoam cup... I think he left because he could no longer take enough cuts to avoid the low-talent year that we saw unfold last year. He also knew that we shot a semi-big wad going after AB, and AB proceeded to be, in NE's view, unplayable. There's all sorts of room for speculation, but we can at least say that a) a QB always having to play without weapons would have seen his new toy evaporate, and (b) such a QB might have lobbied pretty hard to get said guy.
Whatever the play by play, he'd have to play with whatever we could scrape up in NE, where in TB he had this "Just Add Me, Makes Its Own Lombardi" recipe.
And don't kid yourself. Just like we couldn't afford any kind of QB last year, we are getting a massive break having Mac on a rookie deal rather than ANY veteran QB, never mind the GOAT.
"In effect, BB pushed him out to be able to restock other positions" is just as legit a way to phrase it.
Let's figure out what it means to say you'd give Mac a monster extension at 35-40M "in a few years." He's under contract for 4 years.
To somehow compare Mac's first real payday to anything from the Brady era, realize you'll be comparing a 2019 demand vs. a 2025 contract.
Subtract 5 years from 2019 and you have the 2014 comps (to measure against 2019, when Brady wanted $25M APY for 2020):
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In 2014, the franchise tag for a QB was $16.2M. Brady's $25 M 2020 ask would be considdable more, but actually in line w/general growth...
In 2014, the cap was $133M. It was $198.2M in 2020. So about 49% more.
2021 - now - is the "down" year, with a cap of "only" $182M. Next year it will be $208M. To get to Mac's 2025 numbers you have to know the cap in 2025, and I don't. (If this is a known number, tell me!)
Now a coupla things: Good on you for your ballsy praise of Bill Belichick for drafting our next franchise QB in Mac Jones. I tend to agree (though as always, the future is unwritten.)
This part is great: It depends in part on what you think will happen with COVID. I wasn't really even
thinking about that, but you know, omicron right?
So the $208M cap in 2022 is an "as much as $208M" number. I'm hoping the NFL remains on the rebound, that is, that this present variant or future variants won't result in a big virus rebound/empty stands/etc., which, in this context, affects gate. But let's say next year will still be a $208M cap.
Mac's 2025 contract, according to some projections I was finding of what we'd see going forward as the league "rebounded" from 2020, which was going to be "the" COVID year, was around $270M-$300M. I'm pretty sure that's a total guess, mind you, but I believe there was a huge TV contract signed in March so it's not like there's no money coming in.
The (hypothetical) increase of $182M in 2021 to $270M in 2025 would be about a 48% increase in 5 years.
The 2021 QB tag is $24M. Using that as a proxy for "elite QB," and multiplying by 1.48, brings the number to 35.52M/Year on the low end.
The variables on projecting this number are:
- The cap. If it's higher and every other assumption is the same, then the future franchise cap will be higher.
- The proportion that a QB gets. If the position is not calculated at the same percentage of the cap as it is now, then the number changes.
- It's a variable whether I figured something wrong even on the back of the envelope. I'm tired.
- the big one: all else being equal, you seem to be predicting that Mac will be paid like a Top 5 QB on his next deal; as I said, from your keyboard to God's monitor.
I mean, I want to see that too (the monster $35M-$40M APY extension), because it assumes both
1) The league is healthy in 2025, and
2) Mac Jones is dominant by 2025
And I like both of your predictions (though I cant say I can agree with them with this little data. I'd love it though!)