Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3

[stinkypete]

From 2009 through 2019, about 59% of 56 yard field goal attempts have been successful. Rain reduces the likelihood of a field goal by about 15%, so let's assume that Folk had about a 50/50 chance of making the kick. If Jones' completion % on 3rd and short is 40%, then the field goal is the smart move.

The problem is the remaining 0:50 on the clock and the two timeouts. What was Brady's chance of gaining 35 yards and setting Tampa up for a game winner? Are they greater than 10%?

If the call was straight up, apples to apples, kick and win vs. go for it, then the call would have been defensible. I cannot rationalize how giving the ball back to Tom with so much time gives the team the best chance to win. During the last few minutes my dialogue with my wife went like this: "Mac Jones is going to have a chance to Brady Brady...he's doing it...you gotta go for it...oh, no, they're going to kick and Brady is going to Brady us...and now he missed it and doesn't have the chance." Literally the worst possible ending.

I appreciate Belichick falling on his sword to protect the kid, but you have to give him a chance to win you a football game, and you shouldn't be sheltering him from failure. This is my least favorite in-game call since the fake punt in the playoffs against the Jets a decade ago.

 

[Ollie]

There's no winning this argument imo.

If Mac doesn't get the first down we would have heard about it for weeks.

They were technically in field goal range. Do you give away the shot to win the game?

Personally I wanted Mac to go for it but I do understand the decision.

Exactly if we had gone for it on 4th down and not made it there would have been lots of people questioning the need to go for it on 4th down when we were in field goal range. In a game where we had made 2 3rd downs all game i can see the logic of kicking it.

 

[Jim Beankie]

A look at the incomplete 3rd down plays for context of the 2-9 efficiency:

• Drive 1 - 3rd & 9 at TB 48 (PUNT)​

  (13:09 - 1st) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to N.Agholor (C.Davis). 0-1

• Drive 2 - 3rd & 14 at NE 16 (PUNT)​

  (9:27 - 1st) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to B.Bolden to NE 23 for 7 yards (R.****rell, M.Edwards). 0-2

• Drive 3 - 3rd & 10 at NE 42 (INT)​

  (3:39 - 1st) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass deep middle intended for N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by A.Winfield (R.****rell) [D.White] at TB 34. A.Winfield to TB 34 for no gain (N.Agholor). Pass deflected by NE 15-Agholor at TB 40. 0-3

• Drive 4 - 3rd & 3 at NE 33​

  (13:22 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to J.Meyers to NE 48 for 15 yards (R.****rell). 1-4

• Drive 4 - 3rd & 5 at TB 47​

  (12:06 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short right to N.Harry. PENALTY on TB-R.Sherman, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at TB 47 - No Play. 1-5

• Drive 4 - 3rd & 4 at TB 31 (TD)​

  (10:23 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to B.Bolden pushed ob at TB 24 for 7 yards (M.Edwards). 2-5

• Drive 5 - 3rd & 17 at NE 41 (PUNT)​

  (2:39 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Meyers pass short left to B.Bolden pushed ob at TB 44 for 15 yards (A.Winfield). Backwards pass from NE 10-Jones to NE 16-Meyers at NE 34. NE 16-Meyers backs up and completes a forward pass to NE 25-Bolden. 2-6

• Drive 6 - Kneel down (END OF HALF)​

• Drive 7 - No 3rd downs (FUMBLE)​

• Drive 8 - 3rd & 12 at NE 21 (PUNT)​

  (8:25 - 3rd) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NE 12 for -9 yards (J.Tryon). 2-7

• Drive 9 - No 3rd downs (TD)​

• Drive 10 - 3rd & Goal at TB 9 (FG)​

  (5:21 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to B.Bolden to TB 9 for no gain (S.Barrett). 2-8

• Drive 11 - 3rd & 3 at TB 37 (MISSED FG)​

  (1:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to J.Meyers (L.David) 2-9

Summary of 3rd down plays:

Incomplete: 2
Incomplete (Penalty): 1
Complete (no gain): 1
Complete (fell short): 2
Complete (1st down): 2
Intercepted: 1
Sacked: 1

The 2 completed plays where they fell short were for 7+ yards so they could be counted towards the 3rd & 3 as positive plays. A penalty saved an incomplete. So you could say that Mac went 4-10, still not good. Seems that Bill didn't think Mac could make the play so he chose to kick it.

​

Thanks for the info. 3rd and 5 or shorter they were 2 for 3 and the miss was Mac Jones not getting enough air / great play by #54 to jump and bat. Blitz probably not an issue as a route to just get a 1st down is gonna take ~1.5s. The question is, would a 56yd FG in the rain be better than a jump ball to HH, N'Keal, or any of the other >6'0" receivers we have? Too bad we don't have an alternate universe viewer. I think if N'Keal picked up the 1st down with his (probably no longer) 38.5" VJ, and we won the game, I think we might've been looking at WW3. Looks like BB made the right decision to save humanity.

 

[LightSkinSmurf]

I didn't read any of this thread yet but personally this isn't hindsight with me, I would have went for it. First of all you had a kicker that isn't great at kicking from that distance. Plus the weather....PLUS, even if you do make it you have brady waiting with enough time left to come right back.. And I believe they had two timeouts if I'm not mistaken.

Even if we make that kick I think we still lose. I think we only win if we drain the clock leaving brady with not enough time to do anything. Just my opinion. That being said I'm not pissed at the call or anything. I'm just saying I would have went for it. I have too much respect for brady and not enough in folk's leg from that distance in those conditions.

 

[VJCPatriot]

BB was a Coward. Bottom line your QB is red hot and passing for over 75% completion for the game, and you don't go to him on 4th and short and instead opt for a long 56 yard field goal in the rain? Foolishness, you go with the stud that carried you. BB just didn't trust Mac Jones enough to get the job done and it cost us the game.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

BB once went for it 4th and 2 on his own 28 vs Colts. We failed but I still love that move to this day. It was the right call. Bill was at his peak then. Not so much anymore

 

[Ring 6]

I didn't like the call. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe the Bucs had two timeouts and would have gotten the ball back with about 50ish seconds even if we made the kick. Very strong chance we don't win the game in that scenario unless Succop misses again.

Brady was 7/16 for 86 yards in the second half. You have to trust your defense.

 

[venecol]

Brady was 7/16 for 86 yards in the second half. You have to trust your defense.

I don't mind the call to kick the fg but there was plenty of time for Brady to drive it 50 yds with 2 TOs for a winning fg. He did it at the end of the 1st half. He's done it 49 times. It is what it is.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't mind the call to kick the fg but there was plenty of time for Brady to drive it 50 yds with 2 TOs for a winning fg. He did it at the end of the 1st half. He's done it 49 times. It is what it is.

And there would be a defense out there to stop him.

 

[203Pat]

Brady was 7/16 for 86 yards in the second half. You have to trust your defense.

And AB lost what could have been a TD on back to back plays right beforehand. You may want to rely on the fact Brady won't do something we have seen him do 100 times and drive down the field to set up a game winning kick but I don't like our defenses odds.

 

[sb1]

And AB lost what could have been a TD on back to back plays right beforehand. You may want to rely on the fact Brady won't do something we have seen him do 100 times and drive down the field to set up a game winning kick but I don't like our defenses odds.

Oddly enough AB scoring that TD might have been better for us. Then it's 23-17 and there's no question about a long FG or time left after we score. Maybe Mac drives them all the way back to win the game.

 

[Ring 6]

And AB lost what could have been a TD on back to back plays right beforehand. You may want to rely on the fact Brady won't do something we have seen him do 100 times and drive down the field to set up a game winning kick but I don't like our defenses odds.

Huge exaggeration about incomplete passes.
Brady has also NOT converted those situations many times, and the defense has stopped them many times.
If you fail on 4th and 3 your defense doesn’t get a lead to try to protect.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Oddly enough AB scoring that TD might have been better for us. Then it's 23-17 and there's no question about a long FG or time left after we score. Maybe Mac drives them all the way back to win the game.

ive actually been thinking the same thing since. Not ideal but in hindsight a td actually would have been better for us

 

[203Pat]

Huge exaggeration about incomplete passes.
Brady has also NOT converted those situations many times, and the defense has stopped them many times.
If you fail on 4th and 3 your defense doesn’t get a lead to try to protect.

I'm not sure what "huge exaggeration" was made. AB lost one in the lights and then dropped a perfectly thrown TD pass. I am also not going to argue with someone who is going to act like they think it is just as likely Brady blows it as leads a game winning drive. I know he doesn't wear a Patriots uniform anymore but he is still Tom Brady and I would most certainly not rely on this defense to stop him in that situation.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not sure what "huge exaggeration" was made. AB lost one in the lights and then dropped a perfectly thrown TD pass. I am also not going to argue with someone who is going to act like they think it is just as likely Brady blows it as leads a game winning drive. I know he doesn't wear a Patriots uniform anymore but he is still Tom Brady and I would most certainly not rely on this defense to stop him in that situation.

The first one landed about 8 yards from him and out of bounds, the second one was a diving circus catch attempt. You are essentially arguing that trying to score and failing is proof they would score, because it makes you feel better I guess.
You act as if he is 100% in that situation. He is not. Having the opportunity to defend a lead is a better chance than turning over on downs trailing.

 

[venecol]

The first one landed about 8 yards from him and out of bounds, the second one was a diving circus catch attempt. You are essentially arguing that trying to score and failing is proof they would score, because it makes you feel better I guess.
You act as if he is 100% in that situation. He is not. Having the opportunity to defend a lead is a better chance than turning over on downs trailing.

The math dissgrees with you.

 

[Ring 6]

The math dissgrees with you.

View attachment 36383

That isn’t “the math” it’s made up speculation.
A 52.3% chance of converting is pull out of their @ss. There is no data on the 2021 patriot offense, the box defense, the state of the OL, etc to calculate that.
There is no data to calculate Filks odds of making a 56 yard game winning kick.
There is no data to calculate the chances of Tampa getting to fg range or making the FG in that day against that defense.
Hypothetical guesses based upon what other people did in somewhat similar situations against different people has little value applied to an actual real life event.

 

[venecol]

That isn’t “the math” it’s made up speculation.
A 52.3% chance of converting is pull out of their @ss. There is no data on the 2021 patriot offense, the box defense, the state of the OL, etc to calculate that.
There is no data to calculate Filks odds of making a 56 yard game winning kick.
There is no data to calculate the chances of Tampa getting to fg range or making the FG in that day against that defense.
Hypothetical guesses based upon what other people did in somewhat similar situations against different people has little value applied to an actual real life event.

That's NextGen layman's summary of their model taking into account all measurables from that game including weather conditions.

Of course, nothing they can come up with, including their ball tracking technology will ever compare with Andy "The Taliban " Johnson's "eye test."

 

[Ring 6]

That's NextGen layman's summary of their model taking into account all measurables from that game including weather conditions.

Of course, nothing they can come up with, including their ball tracking technology will ever compare with Andy "The Taliban " Johnson's "eye test."

Football isn’t played on a calculator. There is nowhere near sufficient data to make that estimate for the players involved. And what different players did against different competitions in different games has no impact on what these players do against those players on that day.
Stick to Madden.
And stop with the ridiculous, immature name calling.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Oddly enough AB scoring that TD might have been better for us. Then it's 23-17 and there's no question about a long FG or time left after we score. Maybe Mac drives them all the way back to win the game.

It would be 22-17 and the Bucs would go for 2. But still, it might have been one of those scenarios where the Bucs just play some dumb prevent defense and let the Patriots match down to the 25 with ease for a pyrrhic clock victory.