Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3

[PatsWSB47]

A look at the incomplete 3rd down plays for context of the 2-9 efficiency:

• Drive 1 - 3rd & 9 at TB 48 (PUNT)​

  (13:09 - 1st) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to N.Agholor (C.Davis). 0-1

• Drive 2 - 3rd & 14 at NE 16 (PUNT)​

  (9:27 - 1st) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to B.Bolden to NE 23 for 7 yards (R.****rell, M.Edwards). 0-2

• Drive 3 - 3rd & 10 at NE 42 (INT)​

  (3:39 - 1st) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass deep middle intended for N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by A.Winfield (R.****rell) [D.White] at TB 34. A.Winfield to TB 34 for no gain (N.Agholor). Pass deflected by NE 15-Agholor at TB 40. 0-3

• Drive 4 - 3rd & 3 at NE 33​

  (13:22 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to J.Meyers to NE 48 for 15 yards (R.****rell). 1-4

• Drive 4 - 3rd & 5 at TB 47​

  (12:06 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short right to N.Harry. PENALTY on TB-R.Sherman, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at TB 47 - No Play. 1-5

• Drive 4 - 3rd & 4 at TB 31 (TD)​

  (10:23 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to B.Bolden pushed ob at TB 24 for 7 yards (M.Edwards). 2-5

• Drive 5 - 3rd & 17 at NE 41 (PUNT)​

  (2:39 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Meyers pass short left to B.Bolden pushed ob at TB 44 for 15 yards (A.Winfield). Backwards pass from NE 10-Jones to NE 16-Meyers at NE 34. NE 16-Meyers backs up and completes a forward pass to NE 25-Bolden. 2-6

• Drive 6 - Kneel down (END OF HALF)​

• Drive 7 - No 3rd downs (FUMBLE)​

• Drive 8 - 3rd & 12 at NE 21 (PUNT)​

  (8:25 - 3rd) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NE 12 for -9 yards (J.Tryon). 2-7

• Drive 9 - No 3rd downs (TD)​

• Drive 10 - 3rd & Goal at TB 9 (FG)​

  (5:21 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to B.Bolden to TB 9 for no gain (S.Barrett). 2-8

• Drive 11 - 3rd & 3 at TB 37 (MISSED FG)​

  (1:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to J.Meyers (L.David) 2-9

Summary of 3rd down plays:

Incomplete: 2
Incomplete (Penalty): 1
Complete (no gain): 1
Complete (fell short): 2
Complete (1st down): 2
Intercepted: 1
Sacked: 1

The 2 completed plays where they fell short were for 7+ yards so they could be counted towards the 3rd & 3 as positive plays. A penalty saved an incomplete. So you could say that Mac went 4-10, still not good. Seems that Bill didn't think Mac could make the play so he chose to kick it.

​

I know hindsight is 20/20 but that decision failed. There are arguments for both sides obviously but if Jones is going to be a difference in games he has to be a difference. Make the key plays down the stretch. Make that 3rd and 3. No? Then make that 4th and 3. That's what the difference makes do. Belichick needs to let that happen. Game managers aren't going to take anyone to the top. Its Take the training wheels off time

 

[Tony2046]

I know hindsight is 20/20 but that decision failed. There are arguments for both sides obviously but if Jones is going to be a difference in games he has to be a difference. Make the key plays down the stretch. Make that 3rd and 3. No? Then make that 4th and 3. That's what the difference makes do. Belichick needs to let that happen. Game managers aren't going to take anyone to the top. Its Take the training wheels off time

There's no winning this argument imo.

If Mac doesn't get the first down we would have heard about it for weeks.

They were technically in field goal range. Do you give away the shot to win the game?

Personally I wanted Mac to go for it but I do understand the decision.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I love how this directly follows my post about how this exact kind of post is dumb.

I honestly don't read most of your posts...and I can see why. I went back and read what you wrote.

I know for a fact that if the Pats went for it and failed I wouldn't be crapping on them for the decision, because having an aging kicker coming off an injury try to hit a 56 yarder in a downpour is inherently a bad gamble, especially because it would leave Brady with a minute and 2 time outs just to get in field goal range anyway.

Except Folk himself said he was able to kick from 58 yards in pregame during the rain. Perhaps it was Bill placing too much faith in his kicker's own words, but I don't think it was inherently a bad gamble. If it were 6 inches to the right, it would have been a gamble that probably pays off. And no guarantee that a guy who had a 50% completion percentage in the game would have led his team to a game-winning FG with 1 minute left and 2 TOs. This wasn't the 2009 defense vs the Colts when Bill went for it on 4th and 2. You go for the win and leave the game in the hands of your defense.

 

[captain stone]

Shaq Mason and Brandon Graham.

If you really want to piss on Bill . . . Daniel Graham was the guy Bill drafted the year the greatest safety to ever play the game was there for the taking. It still pisses me off and no one would call me a draftnik.

Thanks for the heads-up, I totally didn't see that mistake... And Tom Brady once admitted that Bill would love to adopt Ed Reed as one of his sons, that's how much he respects him.

Freudian slip?

Must be, and I even get Eagles coverage on NBCSPhilly, so I have no excuse!

 

[Simpelton]

We're beyond the previous downs. This entire thread is about what happened in the 4th down and if the decision to kick a fg was correct or not. If Mac gets a 1st down in the previous downs, this thread doesn't exist. Get it?

Imagine telling the OP what the thread is about.

 

[venecol]

Imagine telling the OP what the thread is about.

You're hijacking the thread.

 

[venecol]

Imagine telling the OP what the thread is about.

Thread title:

Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3​

Your OP doesn't say anything about first 3 downs. At all.

Maybe start a new thread?

We went 0-3 on 1st three downs so going for it wasn't worth it​

 

[venecol]

@Simpelton I'm just messing with you dude.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Surprised there wasn't a poll for this. I'm still in the go for it on 4th and 3 camp, although there were great points made for the kick. Excited to watch Mac grow.

That being said, that was an incredible play by the Bucs #54 LDavid to bat the ball down - that was a pretty big jump at the end of the game thanks to Mac telegraphing the pass, but that's just part of the learning process. LDavid was starting to get into his crouch just as Mac started his windup. Too bad because Jakobi would've gotten to at least the 25.

 

[Pape]

Surprised there wasn't a poll for this. I'm still in the go for it on 4th and 3 camp, although there were great points made for the kick. Excited to watch Mac grow.

That being said, that was an incredible play by the Bucs #54 LDavid to bat the ball down - that was a pretty big jump at the end of the game thanks to Mac telegraphing the pass, but that's just part of the learning process. LDavid was starting to get into his crouch just as Mac started his windup. Too bad because Jakobi would've gotten to at least the 25.

the biggest issue is who's catching the pass on the conversion attempt? and it would be a pass attempt, as our running game was nonexistent...

James White is out ... Kevin Faulk retired a looooong time ago ... Taylor, well, i think you get that point...

Who's on the inside to pick up the inevitable blitz?

Just an unenviable situation to be in...

 

[Bfanlc]

Mac had 3 chances. That's why it was 4th down

***

 

[captain stone]

the biggest issue is who's catching the pass on the conversion attempt? and it would be a pass attempt, as our running game was nonexistent...

James White is out ... Kevin Faulk retired a looooong time ago ... Taylor, well, i think you get that point...

Who's on the inside to pick up the inevitable blitz?

Just an unenviable situation to be in...

Meyers would've obviously been Mac's first read...

 

[Pape]

Meyers would've obviously been Mac's first read...

and what did he do on the previous play, the 3rd down conversion attempt?

incomplete to Meyers

 

[italian pat patriot]

In that moment i was sure we would have lost but i do not disagree with the call

But i had the feeling it was over

 

[Pats1971]

There's no winning this argument imo.

If Mac doesn't get the first down we would have heard about it for weeks.

They were technically in field goal range. Do you give away the shot to win the game?

Personally I wanted Mac to go for it but I do understand the decision.

Forget Mac and what he would do and all that. Here is my reason for going for it. If you try and kick the fg, you have two ways to lose and only one way to win. If you make it, Brady gets the ball with a minute and 2 timeouts, this has not been an issue. Tampa's issues were in the redzone that game, not moving up and down the field. You miss the fg, game over. Now if you go for it and make it, you basically get closer take time off and kick with no time left. You miss the 4th you lose. So its one way to win and only 1 way to lose. Hope that makes some sense. Making the fg did not in any way guarantee a win. Going for it on 4th down and making it does way more.

 

[Pats1971]

the biggest issue is who's catching the pass on the conversion attempt? and it would be a pass attempt, as our running game was nonexistent...

James White is out ... Kevin Faulk retired a looooong time ago ... Taylor, well, i think you get that point...

Who's on the inside to pick up the inevitable blitz?

Just an unenviable situation to be in...

Maybe he could have thrown to one of the huge high priced weapons they got in the offseason?

 

[Pape]

Maybe he could have thrown to one of the huge high priced weapons they got in the offseason?

or maybe nick coulda made the kick... all water under the bridge now...

i thought it was the right call... ymmv

 

[Pats1971]

or maybe nick coulda made the kick... all water under the bridge now...

i thought it was the right call... ymmv

There is no wrong or right answer. It something works its the right call if it doesnt its the wrong call. I just think we had a better shot of winning if they go for it there. Making the kick gives Brady a minute and 2 timeouts. I think going for it more assures a victory. With the kick try even making it did not assure victory.

 

[Nunchucks]

or maybe nick coulda made the kick... all water under the bridge now...

i thought it was the right call... ymmv

They could make the kick and still would likely lose. The defense was gassed and Brady would have no problem getting into field goal range.

I thought he would go for it and if they didn't make it, I would have been fine with it....

 

[captain stone]

and what did he do on the previous play, the 3rd down conversion attempt?

incomplete to Meyers

And they likely try it again, with maybe a little window-dressing, and hope that Lavonte David doesn't block the pass attempt twice in a row.