Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3

[203Pat]

I conversely love the notion that any chance to bash the team in its entirety (all its subsequent parts from management to groundskeeper) is seized upon by a vocal (what I hope is a minority) contingent to sound off on how much better they are at everything from drafting to play calling to actually playing.

There are a lot of posts here at that level of hyperbole, not just examining the nuances of the decision.

Maybe I missed them but I don’t see many people “bashing” Bill. I see plenty of people that disagree with his decision, myself included. Bill isn’t infallible. Us lowly fans are allowed to disagree with him on occasion.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

If we would have gone for it, a receiver would have dropped it.

 

[venecol]

Here's the math behind the analytics. Just have to wonder how Mac felt about Bill not letting him try to get the 1st down. I get that they only completed 22% of their 3rd downs but Mac's completions within 5 yards was pretty accurate.





At the end of the day it was a judgment call by Bill. It is what it is.

 

[captain stone]

Yup. Also if Branch and Welker make catches instead of two bad drops on that drive - then who knows?

fify

 

[captain stone]

The Eagles in SB 52 say hello.

Brady wouldn't have had Shack Mason trying - and failing - to block EDIT: BRANDONl Graham either.

 

[venecol]

I wonder if this dude would've made it. Lmao

 

[TomPatriot]

Brady wouldn't have had Shack Mason trying - and failing - to block Daniel Graham either.

Shaq Mason and Brandon Graham.

If you really want to piss on Bill . . . Daniel Graham was the guy Bill drafted the year the greatest safety to ever play the game was there for the taking. It still pisses me off and no one would call me a draftnik.

 

[Simpelton]

Here's the math behind the analytics. Just have to wonder how Mac felt about Bill not letting him try to get the 1st down.

Mac had 3 chances to get the first down.

 

[venecol]

Mac had 3 chances to get the first down.

The discussion is about the 4th down play not the 1st three. Pay attention.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

Folk just barely missed making the FG. It was not a bad decision. Probably Folk told him he had a shot at making it
Given how terribly the Pats were running the ball, The Bucs most likely would have blitzed. The Pats were only 2/9 on third down prior to this in the game and this one would have been more pressure than any of the previous 9.

Totally reasonable for BB to go for the field goal.
This crap about Folk not having a chance because he is an aging kicker and had not made one before is bologna. THe kick was long enough and it literally missed being good by ONE FOOT.

I could see the argument if it landed 10 yards short or was 15 yards wide....The actual kick proved it was a reasonable move

 

[sean10mm]

What I hate is the style of argument that's basically, "If he did the other thing and failed, people would complain anyway!" becaue it's irrelevant to if the decision was RIGHT or not. They're trying to change the conversation from what should be done to the futility of appeasing the talking heads. I don't care if the talk radio chowderheads would treat Bill nicer if he did A instead of B, I care about if A is more likely to lead to a win than B.

I know for a fact that if the Pats went for it and failed I wouldn't be crapping on them for the decision, because having an aging kicker coming off an injury try to hit a 56 yarder in a downpour is inherently a bad gamble, especially because it would leave Brady with a minute and 2 time outs just to get in field goal range anyway.

It's like when people treat ANY uncertainty as meaning everything is a total toss-up. "Bacon and Cobalt-60 are both cancer risks, so who can say which is worse to eat?"

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Folk just barely missed making the FG. It was not a bad decision. Probably Folk told him he had a shot at making it
Given how terribly the Pats were running the ball, The Bucs most likely would have blitzed. The Pats were only 2/9 on third down prior to this in the game and this one would have been more pressure than any of the previous 9.

Totally reasonable for BB to go for the field goal.
This crap about Folk not having a chance because he is an aging kicker and had not made one before is bologna. THe kick was long enough and it literally missed being good by ONE FOOT.

I could see the argument if it landed 10 yards short or was 15 yards wide....The actual kick proved it was a reasonable move

I have to agree. If the FG is within Folk's range, you have to kick it. You always take the lead and hope for the best. If the 4th down play doesn't work, then you would have people criticizing Bill for not taking the points. Folk's career-high is 58 yards. It's not unreasonable to think that he would make it.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Brady wouldn't have had Shack Mason trying - and failing - to block Daniel Graham either.

Freudian slip?

 

[Simpelton]

The discussion is about the 4th down play not the 1st three. Pay attention.

The funny part is you think that Mac failing the 2 of the 3 previous downs to advance the football isn't the lynchpin of the whole event we're discussing.

 

[venecol]

The funny part is you think that Mac failing the 2 of the 3 previous downs to advance the football isn't the lynchpin of the whole event we're discussing.

We're beyond the previous downs. This entire thread is about what happened in the 4th down and if the decision to kick a fg was correct or not. If Mac gets a 1st down in the previous downs, this thread doesn't exist. Get it?

 

[venecol]

Folk just barely missed making the FG. It was not a bad decision. Probably Folk told him he had a shot at making it
Given how terribly the Pats were running the ball, The Bucs most likely would have blitzed. The Pats were only 2/9 on third down prior to this in the game and this one would have been more pressure than any of the previous 9.

Totally reasonable for BB to go for the field goal.
This crap about Folk not having a chance because he is an aging kicker and had not made one before is bologna. THe kick was long enough and it literally missed being good by ONE FOOT.

I could see the argument if it landed 10 yards short or was 15 yards wide....The actual kick proved it was a reasonable move

Not sure it matters whether kick misses by 15 yards or a c**t hair. A miss is a miss. Bill's face after the miss said it all. I guarantee he wasn't thinking "well he almost made it."

Bruce Arians said it was the right call. I guess that proves it. Lol

 

[GreenCow]

This is what I mean by letting the suds do the talking. Get some sleep man and do yourself a favor, don't post again until morning.

Every play looks like a bad decision when it doesn't work. Looking at the odds as I understand them and given the fact that the OL was getting wrecked all night, the FG was better odds.

I’m a Bills fan. I have no suds in me and no dog in this race.

It was a dumb decision.

There is no conceivable argument for kicking the field goal. None.

If he makes it, Brady drives the field and kicks a game winner. Loss. If he misses it, Loss.

It was bad.

 

[Ivan]

This is going to be its own discussion, might as well break it out now with a respectful title rather than one by another anguished fan who lets the suds choose his words for him.

Frankly, neither going for it on 4th and 3 nor the field goal were in any way guaranteed to work. Bill took his shot knowing the chances and it failed.

An argument could be made that going for it was better odds, but nothing guaranteed.

Frankly given the performance of the offensive line, I think Bill/Josh probably made the right call to try the field goal, the OL wasn't holding up well and I'd rather trust my kicker to make a tough FG than trust that OL to hold on a clutch do-or-die play against that DL.

Bottom line the team played way better than the naysayers thought and Mac looked like the real thing throughout. Just didn't quite ome together for us which is normal for a team with new leadership. I think we can bounce back from 1-3 especially since most of the drama is now behind us and the coach can just focus on one game at the time.

Also -- impressed by the defense. That's always been Bill's calling card and it was obvious he did a grreat job of keeping Brady off balance and frustrated. They did a successful bend-don't-break defense against Brady and only the suspect run D got cashed for a TD so that's something to think about.

Agree for the most part. I would have liked to see him go for it, and I think Jones would have converted, but I understand why Belichick made the choice to kick it. I came away from the game really optimistic about the future for this team, and whether they can get into the playoffs or not I want to see them compete like they did on Monday consistently for the rest of this season. Getting a franchise QB is the biggest piece of the puzzle in building a championship caliber team and I think Jones will develop into just that.

 

[venecol]

A look at the incomplete 3rd down plays for context of the 2-9 efficiency:

• Drive 1 - 3rd & 9 at TB 48 (PUNT)​

  (13:09 - 1st) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to N.Agholor (C.Davis). 0-1

• Drive 2 - 3rd & 14 at NE 16 (PUNT)​

  (9:27 - 1st) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to B.Bolden to NE 23 for 7 yards (R.****rell, M.Edwards). 0-2

• Drive 3 - 3rd & 10 at NE 42 (INT)​

  (3:39 - 1st) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass deep middle intended for N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by A.Winfield (R.****rell) [D.White] at TB 34. A.Winfield to TB 34 for no gain (N.Agholor). Pass deflected by NE 15-Agholor at TB 40. 0-3

• Drive 4 - 3rd & 3 at NE 33​

  (13:22 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to J.Meyers to NE 48 for 15 yards (R.****rell). 1-4

• Drive 4 - 3rd & 5 at TB 47​

  (12:06 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short right to N.Harry. PENALTY on TB-R.Sherman, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at TB 47 - No Play. 1-5

• Drive 4 - 3rd & 4 at TB 31 (TD)​

  (10:23 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to B.Bolden pushed ob at TB 24 for 7 yards (M.Edwards). 2-5

• Drive 5 - 3rd & 17 at NE 41 (PUNT)​

  (2:39 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Meyers pass short left to B.Bolden pushed ob at TB 44 for 15 yards (A.Winfield). Backwards pass from NE 10-Jones to NE 16-Meyers at NE 34. NE 16-Meyers backs up and completes a forward pass to NE 25-Bolden. 2-6

• Drive 6 - Kneel down (END OF HALF)​

• Drive 7 - No 3rd downs (FUMBLE)​

• Drive 8 - 3rd & 12 at NE 21 (PUNT)​

  (8:25 - 3rd) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NE 12 for -9 yards (J.Tryon). 2-7

• Drive 9 - No 3rd downs (TD)​

• Drive 10 - 3rd & Goal at TB 9 (FG)​

  (5:21 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to B.Bolden to TB 9 for no gain (S.Barrett). 2-8

• Drive 11 - 3rd & 3 at TB 37 (MISSED FG)​

  (1:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to J.Meyers (L.David) 2-9

Summary of 3rd down plays:

Incomplete: 2
Incomplete (Penalty): 1
Complete (no gain): 1
Complete (fell short): 2
Complete (1st down): 2
Intercepted: 1
Sacked: 1

The 2 completed plays where they fell short were for 7+ yards so they could be counted towards the 3rd & 3 as positive plays. A penalty saved an incomplete. So you could say that Mac went 4-10, still not good. Seems that Bill didn't think Mac could make the play so he chose to kick it.

​

 

[sean10mm]

If the 4th down play doesn't work, then you would have people criticizing Bill for not taking the points.

I love how this directly follows my post about how this exact kind of post is dumb.