Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3

[WE ARE NOT DONE]

That was the right call that was wrong by a couple of inches.

Why do people keep repeating this? It simply is not accurate. If he makes the kick I say that statistically it is at least 50% Brady leads Tampa to a game winning FG. My gut in the flow of the game says it was 80% Brady would have won it, and only that low because the FG could have been missed, I am 95% sure a final Bucs drive would have ended in a game winning FG attempt, just a matter of if it went through, and I am guessing Brady would have gotten it to very makeable range. He may have even gotten his first TD of the game.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

That wasn’t a given considering the time on the clock, rain and the way the defense was playing.

You need to consider though:
-our pass rushers were gassed, they did not get close to brady on the last 2 fg drives
-jones was hobbled. Brown had him beat 2 straight plays for a td but we were very fortunate they did not connect.

If it was looking like quarters 1-3 yes id have more faith in not allowing more points, but giving the ball back to brady at that point might have been an even worse decision than kicking the fg there. It could have literally taken one play like when brady got kvn on fournette and you get an easy dpi. Nobody’s better at spotting the mismatch and there for sure would have been one esp considering jones’ condition

 

[sb1]

Like I posted in the other thread, let's not use the 2/9 on third down as some kind of benchmark to decide whether not to go for it on 4th and 3.

Because they were actually 2/3 on 3rd and four or less. The ones they didn't make were like 3rd and 17, 3rd and 12, 3rd and 10, 3rd and 9 - totally apples to oranges

 

[MahomestoKelce]

If Belichick goes for it and they don't convert, people are screaming he should've taken the FG.

Sometimes the right decision doesn't end with the right result.

It can be argued he should've went for it. But by no means do I think it's clearly the wrong choice.

 

[nabwong]

What do you think Bill would have done if he had Brady and not Mac? Of course he would have gone for it. I mean he had no problem with going for it on 4th and 2 in his own end in that Colts game.

Didn't trust his rookie QB who was playing well up to that point against a depleted secondary - and it bit his team in the ass.

I don't think it's about not trusting the rookie QB. I think it's more about protecting him right now.

 

[JayNM]

If Belichick goes for it and they don't convert, people are screaming he should've taken the FG.

Sometimes the right decision doesn't end with the right result.

It can be argued he should've went for it. But by no means do I think it's clearly the wrong choice.

Lend me your cristal ball to alternate realities, please

 

[WE ARE NOT DONE]

Pats were 2-9 converting 3rd downs. Chances for Folk to make that field goal was at least 30%

On 1st drive: 3rd and 9, incomplete pass
On 2nd drive 3rd and 14, gained 7 yards
On 3rd drive: 3rd and 10, pass intercepted, but was catchable for a 20ish yard gain and conversion
On 4th drive: 3rd and 3, 15 yard completion
3rd and 5, 10 yard penalty
3rd and 4, 7 yard completion
On 5th drive: 3rd and 17, 15 yard completion
On 7th drive: 3rd and 12, sacked for a 9 yard loss
On 8th drive: 3rd and 9, completion for no gain
On 9th drive: 3rd and 3, incomplete pass batted down

So including the penalty that gave a conversion on 3rd and 5, we were 3 of 10. However, what relevance does the 0 for 6 on conversions of 9 yards or greater have on a 4th and 3? We converted 3 of 4 relevant 3rd downs with the only failure being the batted ball on the previous play. We converted 3rd and 3, 4, and 5, and failed on a 3. If we translate those numbers to the 4th and 3 we are at a 75% chance of success.

Here is game, set match in the entire game we were 11 of 14 converting on any down of less than 7 yards to go. If we throw out the 2 for 2 on less than 3 yards we are looking at "only" 9 out of 12 for 75% on any conversion attempt between 3 and 7 yards regardless of down. Keep in mind that many of those were before they lost 2 additional starters in the secondary.

It gets even better, the 3 failures were 2 sacks and the batted pass, so Jones was 9 of 10 on such downs, all for conversions with the only incomplete pass being a batted ball.

The prosecution rests its case, and there is no way to acquit. Once again I give BB an A+ for the first 59 minutes of this game, I almost always agree with BB's decisions in these situations and am about as far from a BB hater as possible. I believe BB is the greatest coach ever, but that doesn't make him immune from poor decisions, and this was simply an atrocious decision, and I don't see how you can read this post and disagree. That doesn't even take into avcount my analysis of the success chances of a Golf 56 yard attempt in that weather with questionable help compounded by the high chances of even a make just leading to a far more exciting loss that would have only added to the Brady legend.

 

[Kontradiction]

Because I kill his takes…

Whatever helps ease that psychosis, I guess.

 

[Kontradiction]

Because I murder his takes…

 

[SHOWTIME15]

What do you think Bill would have done if he had Brady and not Mac? Of course he would have gone for it. I mean he had no problem with going for it on 4th and 2 in his own end in that Colts game.

Didn't trust his rookie QB who was playing well up to that point against a depleted secondary - and it bit his team in the ass.

I think this decision was about Nick Folk. Folk said he was very confident that he could make kicks 58 yards or less. It was with this that Belichick made his decision. This would all be moot had Lavonte David not batted down that 3rd down pass from Jones. A great player stepped up for them on D and made a game-changing play.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Like I posted in the other thread, let's not use the 2/9 on third down as some kind of benchmark to decide whether not to go for it on 4th and 3.

Because they were actually 2/3 on 3rd and four or less. The ones they didn't make were like 3rd and 17, 3rd and 12, 3rd and 10, 3rd and 9 - totally apples to oranges

Exactly. That's why i'm not getting caught up in the merit of the decision's.

The FG was low percentage

The 4th and 3 was low percentage

Bill made a decision. Another 2 ft to the right we take a lead and Brady gets the ball back with ~50 seconds left and 2 timeouts.

 

[WE ARE NOT DONE]

Why do people keep typing that 4th & 3 was low percentage? We were 3 for 4 on 3rd and 5 or less on the game. Additionally we got a 1st down on 6 of 8 2nd and 7 or less, not got a 1st down eventually, I mean got a first down on that play! Look at my long post above that goes into far more detail. One batted ball on 3rd and 3 the previous down doesn't nullify everything prior to that, and everything prior to that screams that the conversion chances were at worst 75%. Please explain how that is wrong!

 

[50-yard-line]

I'd have had 2 plays called on 3rd and three and gone for it, quickly. Do this...if we don't get it, go right to this, type of thing...

That's not a criticism or a second guess - it's just my preference in that situation. There was no right or wrong answer.

It's been called out a lot here: David made a game-saving play for Tampa. Meyers was WIDE open for an easy 4 yard catch and with several yards to run. 1st-and-10 on somewhere around the 25.

 

[TomPatriot]

Anyone really think the GOAT doesn’t take those last 50 seconds and march down the field for a GWFG the other way even if the kick was good?

A wretched call.

The Eagles in SB 52 say hello.

 

[WE ARE NOT DONE]

The Eagles in SB 52 say hello.

Not a fair comparison, 10 more seconds, but 2 less timeouts, starting from the 9, still ended up gaining 40 yards anyway. Oh, and an absolutely huge difference, we needed a TD and a 2 PT conversion to force overtime, vs just a FG to win, so that comparison is absurd, absolutely a night and day situation.

 

[RIpats88]

If we had prime gostowski I'd say sure kick it. But it's raining and you have folk. Let the kid go for it. It's 4th and 3. Not 4th and 6-7

 

[PatsWSB47]

I was at the game. The weather was really nasty. People in my section didnt want us to kick it. Then he kicked it and the angle we were in section 224 hid the ball hitting the doal post and thought he made it. Lots of cheering turned to sorrow.

 

[sb1]

If we had prime gostowski I'd say sure kick it. But it's raining and you have folk. Let the kid go for it. It's 4th and 3. Not 4th and 6-7

And if Mac is so weak and mentally fragile that failure in this spot is soul crushing for him and ruins his season then I think the Pats would need to think long and hard about whether Mac really is the guy they thought he was when they drafted him.

 

[PScottman]

Does it matter?

The same people would second guess either decision if it didn't work because that's their narrative.

 

[TomPatriot]

Not a fair comparison, 10 more seconds, but 2 less timeouts, starting from the 9, still ended up gaining 40 yards anyway. Oh, and an absolutely huge difference, we needed a TD and a 2 PT conversion to force overtime, vs just a FG to win, so that comparison is absurd, absolutely a night and day situation.

But the Pats didn’t even move the ball five yards on that drive. I was using this failed drive as one example of many in Brady’s career. And just because Brady has had many successful late fourth quarter drives in his career, doesn’t mean that one will be successful. You seem to think it’s a fair accompli. It’s not.