Pats were 2-9 converting 3rd downs. Chances for Folk to make that field goal was at least 30%
On 1st drive: 3rd and 9, incomplete pass
On 2nd drive 3rd and 14, gained 7 yards
On 3rd drive: 3rd and 10, pass intercepted, but was catchable for a 20ish yard gain and conversion
On 4th drive: 3rd and 3, 15 yard completion
3rd and 5, 10 yard penalty
3rd and 4, 7 yard completion
On 5th drive: 3rd and 17, 15 yard completion
On 7th drive: 3rd and 12, sacked for a 9 yard loss
On 8th drive: 3rd and 9, completion for no gain
On 9th drive: 3rd and 3, incomplete pass batted down
So including the penalty that gave a conversion on 3rd and 5, we were 3 of 10. However, what relevance does the 0 for 6 on conversions of 9 yards or greater have on a 4th and 3? We converted 3 of 4 relevant 3rd downs with the only failure being the batted ball on the previous play. We converted 3rd and 3, 4, and 5, and failed on a 3. If we translate those numbers to the 4th and 3 we are at a 75% chance of success.
Here is game, set match in the entire game we were 11 of 14 converting on any down of less than 7 yards to go. If we throw out the 2 for 2 on less than 3 yards we are looking at "only" 9 out of 12 for 75% on any conversion attempt between 3 and 7 yards regardless of down. Keep in mind that many of those were before they lost 2 additional starters in the secondary.
It gets even better, the 3 failures were 2 sacks and the batted pass, so Jones was 9 of 10 on such downs, all for conversions with the only incomplete pass being a batted ball.
The prosecution rests its case, and there is no way to acquit. Once again I give BB an A+ for the first 59 minutes of this game, I almost always agree with BB's decisions in these situations and am about as far from a BB hater as possible. I believe BB is the greatest coach ever, but that doesn't make him immune from poor decisions, and this was simply an atrocious decision, and I don't see how you can read this post and disagree. That doesn't even take into avcount my analysis of the success chances of a Golf 56 yard attempt in that weather with questionable help compounded by the high chances of even a make just leading to a far more exciting loss that would have only added to the Brady legend.