stinkypete
In the Starting Line-Up
- Joined
- Dec 15, 2004
- Messages
- 3,387
- Reaction score
- 1,678
From 2009 through 2019, about 59% of 56 yard field goal attempts have been successful. Rain reduces the likelihood of a field goal by about 15%, so let's assume that Folk had about a 50/50 chance of making the kick. If Jones' completion % on 3rd and short is 40%, then the field goal is the smart move.
The problem is the remaining 0:50 on the clock and the two timeouts. What was Brady's chance of gaining 35 yards and setting Tampa up for a game winner? Are they greater than 10%?
If the call was straight up, apples to apples, kick and win vs. go for it, then the call would have been defensible. I cannot rationalize how giving the ball back to Tom with so much time gives the team the best chance to win. During the last few minutes my dialogue with my wife went like this: "Mac Jones is going to have a chance to Brady Brady...he's doing it...you gotta go for it...oh, no, they're going to kick and Brady is going to Brady us...and now he missed it and doesn't have the chance." Literally the worst possible ending.
I appreciate Belichick falling on his sword to protect the kid, but you have to give him a chance to win you a football game, and you shouldn't be sheltering him from failure. This is my least favorite in-game call since the fake punt in the playoffs against the Jets a decade ago.
The problem is the remaining 0:50 on the clock and the two timeouts. What was Brady's chance of gaining 35 yards and setting Tampa up for a game winner? Are they greater than 10%?
If the call was straight up, apples to apples, kick and win vs. go for it, then the call would have been defensible. I cannot rationalize how giving the ball back to Tom with so much time gives the team the best chance to win. During the last few minutes my dialogue with my wife went like this: "Mac Jones is going to have a chance to Brady Brady...he's doing it...you gotta go for it...oh, no, they're going to kick and Brady is going to Brady us...and now he missed it and doesn't have the chance." Literally the worst possible ending.
I appreciate Belichick falling on his sword to protect the kid, but you have to give him a chance to win you a football game, and you shouldn't be sheltering him from failure. This is my least favorite in-game call since the fake punt in the playoffs against the Jets a decade ago.