Pats have Slowest Skill Position Players - Why it May not Matter

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Just going to copy/paste here since you did the same...

Sure, nothing different other than the Titans being 2-4 at the time, them averaging almost sixty fewer passing yards per game, 70% completions vs 59% with Mariota, 29 PPG scoring with Tannehill vs 16 PPG scoring with Mariota... yeah, that's nothing.

AJ Brown

With Tannehill: 778 yards (78 yards per game), 20.4 yards per reception, 62% catch rate on almost twice as many targets, 6 TD’s (.6 per game)

With Mariota: 273 yards (46 yards per game), 19.5 yards per reception, 60% catch rate on half as many targets, 2 TD’s (.3 per game)

I don't know why they switched QB's at all?

N'Keal missed almost the entirety of his rookie season, then played with the worst starting QB in the NFL in year two.

Will Vanilla Ice admit that he has trouble reading stats or differentiating good from bad?

Definition of moving the goal posts. The discussion was about AJ Brown. I’m sorry you’re so confused about your own statements and argue against yourself.

Also, I went to PFR and went through game logs to get my data, since I knew I couldn’t take your word for it.

 

[Wozzy]

I abused you on this topic in another thread. You really need to learn the first rule of holes.

You lead a rich fantasy life.

 

[Wozzy]

Definition of moving the goal posts. The discussion was about AJ Brown. I’m sorry you’re so confused about your own statements and argue against yourself.

Also, I went to PFR and went through game logs to get my data, since I knew I couldn’t take your word for it.

I gave you Brown’s stats with and without Tannehill... substantially better with Tannehill. But let’s pretend that better isn’t better... that way we can feel good about Cam being horrible and blame the Patriot weapons instead.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Belichick worshipppers here are in denial we suck at drafting wide receivers

 

[Deus Irae]

You lead a rich fantasy life.

No. I just understand the rank stupidity of trying to pretend there's something to see about some mythological huge QB impact in a tiny difference between a rookie WR's first 6 games and his next ten. My mother raised me to be more mentally acute than that.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Here's a discussion with some references - there is some predictive power from the combine, but it's not overwhelming:

How Much Does the Combine Reveal About Future NFL Players?

(Inside Science) -- Despite his superstar status as quarterback of the New England Patriots, Tom Brady's athleticism never turned any heads. At the 2000 NFL Scouting Combine, an annual gathering where players dreaming of playing in the NFL show off their strength, speed and explosiveness in a...

www.insidescience.org

This was really fun to read. Thanks for sharing! Each of the papers was interesting but it also shows how flawed conclusions can be if one isn't paying attention to how the regression analysis or correlations are done.

2016 paper: I think a good point on the 10-yard dash for RBs, I can believe this one. but I think the whole WR analysis is flawed because it measures WR success based on yards per reception. A lot of other better measures than yards per reception so the WR conclusions can be ignored since they measured the wrong outcome across all the variables.

2018: Hyper focusing on only what was different about all-pro's compared to other players, is I think very flawed. Multi time all-pros like Big Ben or whoever obviously skew whatever conclusions they try to make by position, and a small all-pro sample size.

2019: some good stuff here. I think measuring on production (yards, total games, etc) is the right outcome. I like how they use formulas to create horizontal power scores or vertical power jump scores. Same conclusion on 10yard for RBs, makes sense. I can see why long jump might correlate with DE/DT's. Some obvious conclusions like faster 40yd QBs will run more and have more QB rushing yards (yawn). The r2 for all the WR variables was so low that the paper is wrong to conclude anything about WRs, this is probably how we ended up with drafting NKeal Harry if someone had no idea how to read this paper, thinking physical height and jump ball height overcomes inability to separate or run routes. A little bit of data in the wrong hands who doesn't know how to interpret it, can cause disastrous and wrong decisions.

Overall the combine scores have almost no major correlation with NFL success except in some extremely specific cases, like 10yard for RBs, broad jump for DE's/DT's. All the correlations are too low to conclude anything for WRs, definitely don't draft a guy because of their combine metric, have to go off actual game tape. Bench press is mostly useless. 40 times are mostly a waste of time.

.

 

[PScottman]

Belichick worshipppers here are in denial we suck at drafting wide receivers

Taking the argument to the far end of the spectrum huh?

Most don't disagree that the last few years (post Malcolm Mitchell) have not been highlights of drafting WRs for the Patriots, where there is disagreement is that drafting WRs is so important to the team that it overshadows every single other aspect of team building, that the draft is the only way to get WRs, and that they should be a focus of the draft. (there's the other end of the spectrum...commence 8 quadrillion more posts about the topic in 3...2...1...)

 

[SlowGettingUp]

This was really fun to read. Thanks for sharing! Each of the papers was interesting but it also shows how flawed conclusions can be if one isn't paying attention to how the regression analysis or correlations are done.

I wouldn't be surprised if the analytics departments at may of the teams have done much better and more specific analyses, but of course they aren't about to share their conclusions.

Analyses like these are complex because it might, for example, be the case that combine performance predicts a ceiling but not a floor. That would weaken simple regressions, but still might be very useful information.

And there is also some circularity - players with better combine performance tend to be drafted higher, and players that are drafted higher tend to be given much more of an opportunity to prove themselves. Teams can't overcome the sunk cost fallacy, and so a second-round bust is likely to stay on the team for three or more seasons, while the same player would have been cut a year or two earlier if they were drafted later.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

And there is also some circularity - players with better combine performance tend to be drafted higher, and players that are drafted higher tend to be given much more of an opportunity to prove themselves. Teams can't overcome the sunk cost fallacy, and so a second-round bust is likely to stay on the team for three or more seasons, while the same player would have been cut a year or two earlier if they were drafted later.

Exactly, which would make any minor correlations even weaker

 

[Wozzy]

If athleticism were unimportant why does the NFL hold a combine every year and visit the pro days of schools all across the nation... in short, why take measurements at all? It matters...

In other news, Olympic sprinters have an advantage if they're fast, power lifters if they are strong, high jumpers if they better vertical lift...

 

[DropKickFlutie]

If athleticism were unimportant why does the NFL hold a combine every year and visit the pro days of schools all across the nation... in short, why take measurements at all? It matters...

More backwards logic from you. It's like saying 'baseball's been doing this for 50 years, why is our scouting wrong'. They only did the 40-times in the first place because the Tom Landry Cowboys were looking for special teams fringe guys who can run 40 yards to cover kickoffs. To use other analogies, NBA combines also measure how high a guy can jump or how long their arms are, but it barely even matters, you don't see teams hyper-focus on dumb combine measurables because it's much more important if a guy can actually play basketball as opposed to make 1 highlight dunk a game. NBA analytics (and MLB analytics) are light years head of what the NFL is doing. The biggest reason they do the combine is for the doctor to do a medical eval.

You inferring the combine must be so important because they all do it, is like the same dumb backwards logic when you asked 'well how come Harris didn't start over Michel until Michel went on IR', or 'how come Meyers didn't start over Harry until Harry went down'. You assumed the guy playing was automatically better, when they weren't. It turns out our offensive staff had no clue who was good or not good, it was only when those busts went to IR that the better player got a chance.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

In other news, Olympic sprinters have an advantage if they're fast, power lifters if they are strong, high jumpers if they better vertical lift...

in other news, football is not like the Olympics which is literally a sport that measures how fast a guy can run or power lift.... thanks for proving your arguments are illogical.

.

 

[ohiopatsfan]

One thing that a combine or a pro day or stats doesn't tell you is whether or not the player involved has the "fire in the gut" to succeed. Brady has that in spades.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

One thing that a combine or a pro day or stats doesn't tell you is whether or not the player involved has the "fire in the gut" to succeed. Brady has that in spades.

Yes. Combines are mostly worthless as football is a game about spatial awareness and skill whether it be to tackle, catch, run routes, etc. It's no surprise that the very very few combine measures that have minor relevance are for positions that don't require a ton of thinking (RB, DT, DE), for every other position the combine measurables are basically worthless and have zero correlation with NFL success.

And even a pro day I think is a lot of BS in some ways. I saw a drill they put CB's through, you run up 10 yards, then pedal back 10 yards and catch a soft toss up. Then scouts clap that a CB did a good job. What? This is like a NBA player having a pro day taking shots against a static chair. it doesn't mean anything. Or a QB throwing a pass by himself to a WR without any context of how he slides in the pocket or reacts to pressure, is missing most of the picture....

 

[Deus Irae]

If athleticism were unimportant why does the NFL hold a combine every year and visit the pro days of schools all across the nation... in short, why take measurements at all? It matters...

In other news, Olympic sprinters have an advantage if they're fast, power lifters if they are strong, high jumpers if they better vertical lift...

Which posters claimed that athleticism was unimportant?

 

[Wozzy]

More backwards logic from you. It's like saying 'baseball's been doing this for 50 years, why is our scouting wrong'. They only did the 40-times in the first place because the Tom Landry Cowboys were looking for special teams fringe guys who can run 40 yards to cover kickoffs. To use other analogies, NBA combines also measure how high a guy can jump or how long their arms are, but it barely even matters, you don't see teams hyper-focus on dumb combine measurables because it's much more important if a guy can actually play basketball as opposed to make 1 highlight dunk a game. NBA analytics (and MLB analytics) are light years head of what the NFL is doing. The biggest reason they do the combine is for the doctor to do a medical eval.

You inferring the combine must be so important because they all do it, is like the same dumb backwards logic when you asked 'well how come Harris didn't start over Michel until Michel went on IR', or 'how come Meyers didn't start over Harry until Harry went down'. You assumed the guy playing was automatically better, when they weren't. It turns out our offensive staff had no clue who was good or not good, it was only when those busts went to IR that the better player got a chance.

Does Belichick care or pay attention to measurables?

Enough to rattle of a player's shuttle time 14 years later...

“It’s hard to really compare anybody to Branch,” Belichick said Sunday morning before practice. “Branch had a rare quickness. I mean, what’d he run, like a three-seven short-shuttle? You just don’t see that. Deion was very, very quick and very smart. I’m not saying there aren’t other smart receivers, but Deion was really a smart receiver and very, very quick. We’ve had quick guys like Troy Brown, and Julian Edelman, and Wes Welker, guys like that. But it wasn’t Deion, they didn’t have Deion’s kind of quickness.” - BB

www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2016/08/10/bill-belichick-no-patriots-receiver-was-as-quick-as-deion-branch

Anyone arguing against measurables are similar to flat earthers, you're arguing against science.

It's absurd... and even the players who buck the trend and make it despite average (Malcolm Butler, Adam Butler) measurables, they still don't have bad measurables.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Does Belichick care or pay attention to measurables?

Enough to rattle of a player's shuttle time 14 years later...

“It’s hard to really compare anybody to Branch,” Belichick said Sunday morning before practice. “Branch had a rare quickness. I mean, what’d he run, like a three-seven short-shuttle? You just don’t see that. Deion was very, very quick and very smart. I’m not saying there aren’t other smart receivers, but Deion was really a smart receiver and very, very quick. We’ve had quick guys like Troy Brown, and Julian Edelman, and Wes Welker, guys like that. But it wasn’t Deion, they didn’t have Deion’s kind of quickness.” - BB

www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2016/08/10/bill-belichick-no-patriots-receiver-was-as-quick-as-deion-branch

Anyone arguing against measurables are similar to flat earthers, you're arguing against science.

It's absurd... and even the players who buck the trend and make it despite average (Malcolm Butler, Adam Butler) measurables, they still don't have bad measurables.

Thanks. This actually proves my point even more. You had to use a Deion Branch example, basically our last good WR drafted 18 years ago. Our WR and CB draft system has been broken since 2004. Maybe you haven't noticed the wrong hyper focus on 3cone or some other dumb stat (including CB height). I think it's fixed now, glad we punted CB/WR in this year's high draft picks, but for a long long time we were using insane logic to keep drafting a dozen BUST CBs and WRs.

Your science argument is laughable. There are literally 3 technical papers above that clearly show how worthless combine measurables are except in a couple very specific cases for RBs, DEs, DTs. Worthless everywhere else. It's you ignoring science and acting like a clueless 1970's baseball scout.

.

 

[Wozzy]

Thanks. This actually proves my point even more. You had to use a Deion Branch example, basically our last good WR drafted 18 years ago. Our WR and CB draft system has been broken since 2004. Maybe you haven't noticed the wrong hyper focus on 3cone or some other dumb stat (including CB height). I think it's fixed now, glad we punted CB/WR in this year's high draft picks, but for a long long time we were using insane logic to keep drafting a dozen BUST CBs and WRs.

Your science argument is laughable. There are literally 3 technical papers above that clearly show how worthless combine measurables are except in a couple very specific cases for RBs, DEs, DTs. Worthless everywhere else. It's you ignoring science and acting like a clueless 1970's baseball scout.

.

Your debating style is pretty consistent, keep telling me I’m making your point when I’m clearly refuting it. But yeah, Bill doesn’t equate agility drills to quickness even though he can recall Branch’s time 14 years later.

The CB system is broken? Don’t tell JC Jackson, Jon Jones or Stephon Gilmore who Bill made the highest paid corner in the league despite coming from a losing team and despite the fact the Pro Bowl corner on BB’s own team wanted that contract. Bill directly paid Stephon and not Butler #1 CB money because Gilmore’s athleticism makes him a #1 and Butler’s limitations make him a good 2 or 3.

Size, speed, agility, explosion and strength matter... otherwise they wouldn’t measure it at all. It doesn’t guarantee success, but it provides the potential ceiling.

Deion Sanders, Tyreek Hill, Randy Moss and Barry Sanders aren’t dangerous because they’re extraordinarily fast and quick... solid analysis. You’re set in your ways, let’s agree to disagree.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

The CB system is broken? Don’t tell JC Jackson, Jon Jones or Stephon Gilmore who Bill made the highest paid corner in the league despite coming from a

Ok I see I'm wasting time with someone who is a combo of crazy and also obtuse.

Look up each of those 3 guys. None were high Patriot draft picks.

This is getting hilarious. Keep going. Love the hole you're digging.

 

[Wozzy]

Ok I see I'm wasting time with someone who is a combo of crazy and also obtuse.

Look up each of those 3 guys. None were high Patriot draft picks.

This is getting hilarious. Keep going. Love the hole you're digging.

What does draft picks have to do with athleticism? The Patriots discovered great value finding Jones and Jackson, no doubt largely due to their very good and undervalued athleticism that other teams overlooked. It’s almost as if you’re making my point for me.

And yes, I’m digging a massive hole suggesting pro athletes benefit from being bigger, faster, quicker and stronger... I’m way out on a limb.