Pats have Slowest Skill Position Players - Why it May not Matter

[DropKickFlutie]

There's a correlation between measurables and who is good/great at football, but having good/great measurables do not ensure one is good at football. I would would argue that bad measurables almost alway guarantee a player won't be able to play at an NFL level.

1. Can you please share a source? I don't believe there is a correlation at all between combine metrics and who is good or not. Again, here's an example. A Tyreek Hill is an all pro and also super fast, but it's saying 1 out of 200 super fast guys are all pros compared with 1 out of 400 guys with mediocre-speed guys are good. Or 1 out of 100 high jumpers are all pros so look at jump metrics. The hit rate is so low it's basically worthless to use as a reason to draft. Using the combine metric is total fool's gold to make any sort of projection. Maybe this is why the Pats drafts sucked from 2013-2019, using low IQ John Carroll thinking.
2. Your second sentence I agree with. Having a beyond-poor combine metric makes it harder to succeed but again there are tons of examples of people who succeeded with poor combine results: Jerry Rice, Barry Sanders, Tom Brady (pretty much the best players of all time!). Meyers and Bourne here, Wynn being too short or short arms, etc. So even then you can't just rule out guys, again it should be about the core skill for their position and whether they can perform.
3. The Chad Jackson example doesn't prove your point. It proves my point. There are a bunch of knuckleheads, or guys who don't know how to get open, like Chad Jackson or NKeal Harry. But because they fit some dumb combine metric or size metric they get elevated even though they can't get open in the NFL. Bill Walsh had it right. He would literally put a WR in a workout and see if a player could beat a CB. That's the most important draft check by far. Not some dumb 40 time or how high they can jump.

 

[Wozzy]

1. Can you please share a source? I don't believe there is a correlation at all between combine metrics and who is good or not. Again, here's an example. A Tyreek Hill is an all pro and also super fast, but it's saying 1 out of 200 super fast guys are all pros compared with 1 out of 400 guys with mediocre-speed guys are good. Or 1 out of 100 high jumpers are all pros so look at jump metrics. The hit rate is so low it's basically worthless to use as a reason to draft. Using the combine metric is total fool's gold to make any sort of projection. Maybe this is why the Pats drafts sucked from 2013-2019, using low IQ John Carroll thinking.
2. Your second sentence I agree with. Having a beyond-poor combine metric makes it harder to succeed but again there are tons of examples of people who succeeded with poor combine results: Jerry Rice, Barry Sanders, Tom Brady (pretty much the best players of all time!). Meyers and Bourne here, Wynn being too short or short arms, etc. So even then you can't just rule out guys, again it should be about the core skill for their position and whether they can perform.
3. The Chad Jackson example doesn't prove your point. It proves my point. There are a bunch of knuckleheads, or guys who don't know how to get open, like Chad Jackson or NKeal Harry. But because they fit some dumb combine metric or size metric they get elevated even though they can't get open in the NFL. Bill Walsh had it right. He would literally put a WR in a workout and see if a player could beat a CB. That's the most important draft check by far. Not some dumb 40 time or how high they can jump.

You believe Tyreek Hill, Deion Sanders and Randy Moss didn't benefit from 4.2 forty speed?

Barry Sanders...

“Barry decided to come out early but did not work out or run at the combine. Instead he showed off his wares at his Pro Day at Oklahoma State. In those days, the timing days weren’t as well attended as they are now, so there must have been 20 or 25 teams represented. Everyone’s ready for the workout to start and Barry is nowhere to be found. Word was he was out of town picking up some hardware (trophies) but was on his way. So he flew into Tulsa and came right from the airport to the workout. He got out of the car, got into some sweats, limbered up a little bit and ran a 4.37 in the 40-yard dash. I remember standing next to Wayne Fontes, who was the Lions head coach at the time. The Lions picked third and we (the Cowboys) were picking first, and it was pretty obvious we were taking Troy Aikman. So Fontes whispers to me, “Hey, I don’t care if he works out or not, we’re taking him No. 3.” I joked with him and told him not to be so sure he’d be there, but he didn’t fall for it. Though I have seen slight variations telling of Sanders Pro Day, Gil Brandt is a respected analyst and I trust that his story is true."

Detroit Sports Nation

Detroit Sports Nation

detroitsportsnation.com

Jerry Rice ran a 4.5 but private workout in San Francisco had him timed in the 4.4 range. Tom Brady is a QB, he literally isn't a good athlete... kind of highlights how important running at the QB position is when the greatest of all-time didn't. I made the Chad Jackson point to make my point... great measurables don't guarantee anything, but if the brains are evident measurables set the ceiling.

The best players in the NFL are the best athletes at their respective positions, that's not really up for debate. Aaron Donald, Tyron Smith, Chandler Jones... these guys are amazing athletes on top of being smart.

Denying speed, agility, strength or explosion is akin to denying science.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Here's a discussion with some references - there is some predictive power from the combine, but it's not overwhelming:

How Much Does the Combine Reveal About Future NFL Players?

(Inside Science) -- Despite his superstar status as quarterback of the New England Patriots, Tom Brady's athleticism never turned any heads. At the 2000 NFL Scouting Combine, an annual gathering where players dreaming of playing in the NFL show off their strength, speed and explosiveness in a...

www.insidescience.org

 

[Wozzy]

Here's a discussion with some references - there is some predictive power from the combine, but it's not overwhelming:

How Much Does the Combine Reveal About Future NFL Players?

(Inside Science) -- Despite his superstar status as quarterback of the New England Patriots, Tom Brady's athleticism never turned any heads. At the 2000 NFL Scouting Combine, an annual gathering where players dreaming of playing in the NFL show off their strength, speed and explosiveness in a...

www.insidescience.org

The most difficult task once you’ve determined who the best athletes are is to find out who has the brains, desire and health to succeed. You can’t measure desire or predict health... that’s why the draft is a crapshoot.

 

[mgteich]

Apparently, for many here, there is no advantage of having 4.2 or 4,3 speed compared to 4.5 or 4.6 speed. In fact, having the slowest players is OK, and somehow a badge of honor.

The proposition is simple. OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, would you prefer a WR with 4.3 speed or one with 4.5 speed? a TE with 4.4 speed or one with 4.6 speed? FOoks here seem to be saying that they have no preference.

 

[Deus Irae]

Apparently, for many here, there is no advantage of having 4.2 or 4,3 speed compared to 4.5 or 4.6 speed. In fact, having the slowest players is OK, and somehow a badge of honor.

The proposition is simple. OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, would you prefer a WR with 4.3 speed or one with 4.5 speed? a TE with 4.4 speed or one with 4.6 speed? FOoks here seem to be saying that they have no preference.

It's a sport. OTHER THINGS ARE NOT EQUAL, and game speed ≠ 40 time speed.

 

[mgteich]

Apparently, for many here, there is no advantage of having 4.2 or 4,3 speed compared to 4.5 or 4.6 speed. In fact, having the slowest players is OK, and somehow a badge of honor.

The proposition is simple. OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, would you prefer a WR with 4.3 speed or one with 4.5 speed? a TE with 4.4 speed or one with 4.6 speed? Folks here seem to be saying that they have no preference

 

[Joker]

post this one more time and win a cookie...

 

[mikey m]

Don't give care how "slow" we are as long as we are effective. Don't care if it takes us 3 minutes to score or 6 minutes as long as we can get the ball in the endzone with some consistency. Pros and cons to both.

 

[PScottman]

The proposition is simple. OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, would you prefer a WR with 4.3 speed or one with 4.5 speed? a TE with 4.4 speed or one with 4.6 speed? Folks here seem to be saying that they have no preference

There is never a scenario wherein all other things are equal so its a false proposition - what difference does it make to single out one attribute and ask if it's better across the sample whether or not you prefer it? "Water is wet, the sky is blue, women have secrets. Who gives a (*&^?"

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Before anyone mentions that I need to look at AJ Brown's production, tell me what Brown did with Marcus Mariota at QB... nothing is the answer. As soon as Tannehill became the starter AJ Brown transformed into a stud.

AJ Brown, Rookie Season w/Ryan Tannehill
5 Games, 12 receptions, 250 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

Projected over a full 16 game season: 800 yards, 6.5 touchdowns

In 5 games his rookie year with Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown has 250 yards; in his two year career with Tom Brady and Cam Newton, N'Keal Harry has 414 yards.

Will Wozzy simply acknowledge the point that he was wrong, proven by data (no, he won't)? Will Wozzy attempt a dangerous display of logic twisting acrobatics to continue to prove he was right (yes, he will)?

 

[Wozzy]

AJ Brown, Rookie Season w/Ryan Tannehill
5 Games, 12 receptions, 250 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

Projected over a full 16 game season: 800 yards, 6.5 touchdowns

In 5 games his rookie year with Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown has 250 yards; in his two year career with Tom Brady and Cam Newton, N'Keal Harry has 414 yards.

Will Wozzy simply acknowledge the point that he was wrong, proven by data (no, he won't)? Will Wozzy attempt a dangerous display of logic twisting acrobatics to continue to prove he was right (yes, he will)?

Just going to copy/paste here since you did the same...

Sure, nothing different other than the Titans being 2-4 at the time, them averaging almost sixty fewer passing yards per game, 70% completions vs 59% with Mariota, 29 PPG scoring with Tannehill vs 16 PPG scoring with Mariota... yeah, that's nothing.

AJ Brown

With Tannehill: 778 yards (78 yards per game), 20.4 yards per reception, 62% catch rate on almost twice as many targets, 6 TD’s (.6 per game)

With Mariota: 273 yards (46 yards per game), 19.5 yards per reception, 60% catch rate on half as many targets, 2 TD’s (.3 per game)

I don't know why they switched QB's at all?

N'Keal missed almost the entirety of his rookie season, then played with the worst starting QB in the NFL in year two.

Will Vanilla Ice admit that he has trouble reading stats or differentiating good from bad?

 

[scott99]

Interesting thing about this (the separation stat) is in Brady’s last year as a Patriot, with virtually the same receivers, the Pats were near the bottom in this category. The only different receiver was Byrd. Did he bump up that average THAT much ?

 

[Deus Irae]

Just going to copy/paste here since you did the same...

Sure, nothing different other than the Titans being 2-4 at the time, them averaging almost sixty fewer passing yards per game, 70% completions vs 59% with Mariota, 29 PPG scoring with Tannehill vs 16 PPG scoring with Mariota... yeah, that's nothing.

AJ Brown

With Tannehill: 778 yards (78 yards per game), 20.4 yards per reception, 62% catch rate on almost twice as many targets, 6 TD’s (.6 per game)

With Mariota: 273 yards (46 yards per game), 19.5 yards per reception, 60% catch rate on half as many targets, 2 TD’s (.3 per game)

I don't know why they switched QB's at all?

N'Keal missed almost the entirety of his rookie season, then played with the worst starting QB in the NFL in year two.

Will Vanilla Ice admit that he has trouble reading stats or differentiating good from bad?

I abused you on this topic in another thread. You really need to learn the first rule of holes.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Interesting thing about this (the separation stat) is in Brady’s last year as a Patriot, with virtually the same receivers, the Pats were near the bottom in this category. The only different receiver was Byrd. Did he bump up that average THAT much ?

Maybe teams played less dime and nickel, since Cam struggled with his passing accuracy, so the receivers gained more separation against bigger slower run stoppers.

 

[jimnance]

It's a sport. OTHER THINGS ARE NOT EQUAL, and game speed ≠ 40 time speed.

This is the truest statement in the entire
thread.

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

Speed only matters if you allow a game to turn into a foot race. You dont allow this to happen by running over the team. Being more physical than them (taking it as far as you can within the rules).

No doubt the rules and game flow has shifted to favor the high scoring ..air it out offense but it's not impossible to come out and stop. Preferably with a stout defense and smashmouth/clock killing running game (that can score points).

 

[Deus Irae]

Speed only matters if you allow a game to turn into a foot race. You dont allow this to happen by running over the team. Being more physical than them (taking it as far as you can within the rules).

No doubt the rules and game flow has shifted to favor the high scoring ..air it out offense but it's not impossible to come out and stop. Preferably with a stout defense and smashmouth/clock killing running game (that can score points).

Speed matters a lot, and it's mattering more and more as the rules change to make the NFL align more closely with flag football. But speed running in pads after starting in an upright, or semi-upright position on a football field, is different than speed starting out in the blocks, on a prepared track. That doesn't make the 40 useless, but it does mean that it shouldn't be looked as as the end all and be all of "speed" in the NFL.

 

[BTTA]

Is our position that we are just as happy having the players with the slowest times as we would be with players with average or relatively fast times.

This discussion seems to be similar to discussion of player's Wonderlic tests. Are they the best determination of football smarts? Of course not! Would you really be just as happy with a team with the lowest average score, rather than a team with an average score, or an score above average.

It amazes me that the NFL still uses the Wonderlic. It is so awful, and there are so many high quality tests of the various aspects of intelligence. Heck, someone could probably modify some of the other assessments to be specific to football positions.

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

Speed matters a lot, and it's mattering more and more as the rules change to make the NFL align more closely with flag football. But speed running in pads after starting in an upright, or semi-upright position on a football field, is different than speed starting out in the blocks, on a prepared track. That doesn't make the 40 useless, but it does mean that it shouldn't be looked as as the end all and be all of "speed" in the NFL.

Agreed on all points. I still do feel there are ways to counter a faster team by being physical with them and controlling the clock (while scoring points).