DRAFT BGC 2021 Pre-Draft/Patriot-Type Prospect(s) thread

[captain stone]

One comment from Patriots owner Robert Kraft flew under the radar this week, but really shouldn’t have. Here it is: “In the end, if you want to have a good, consistent, winning football team, you can’t do it in free agency. You have to do it through the draft. I don’t feel we’ve done the greatest job the last few years and I really hope, and I believe, I’ve seen a different approach this year.” That Kraft wants better draft results, when you look at how the Patriots have done of late, isn’t a surprise. But a different approach? What does that mean? Well, in the past, Bill Belichick’s had a very closed-off process and, in his defense, for the most part it’s worked. But it’s also led to personnel people feeling like they were actively cut out where other teams’ people weren’t. In essence, the Patriots’ scouts would do their jobs through the season and then hand off the process to Belichick and the coaches in February, with only a couple guys on the personnel side really consistently involved from that point forward. Where most teams had draft meetings with their scouts in February and April, the Patriots would have theirs with scouts in December and February. And at that early point, it’s tough to set the board, with two and a half months of information still to come. So from there on, the scouts would just be gatherers, which frustrated plenty of them, and played into the exodus in the scouting department the last few years. It also, as some saw it, led to misses like N’Keal Harry in 2019. Harry killed his 30 visit that spring and had a college coach, Todd Graham, who was close to Belichick. In that end, without more input from scouts who preferred Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown, the coach wound up leaning on his own experience with Harry, rather than the red flags his scouts planted, and lost a golden opportunity to fill a hole on his roster. And that brings us back to what Kraft said: The Patriots have employed a “different approach” this year. My sense right now is that has translated inside the building in a more collaborative Belichick, who’s listening not just to his top guys, Dave Ziegler and Eliot Wolf, but also those rising through the organization, like national scout Matt Groh. Now, I don’t know if it’ll change the Patriots’ luck on draft day. Or if Belichick will pull back on it when we get there. But for now, it feels like a good positive step for them.

It was even worse than I thought in there...At least ownership has finally admitted publicly that there have been Way Too Many misses - including during the draft's first two days - than should be acceptable, especially when considering the reputation of the man making the Final Decisions...

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I always appreciate your work. The only thing I would add is that Belichick may still like the huge body guys on the OL and DL, but he's going faster and smaller elsewhere. I can't help but think some of the slow thumpers like Dylan Moses are not in favor anymore, whereas a guy like the Notre Dame LB may actually get a look in the 2nd round, though he's light. Belichick seems to be moving toward playing 6 DBs with one of them being more effectively a LB. I'm talking about Dugger here. Obviously Parsons is the best of both worlds.

I would add Jamie Newman to the QB list, even ahead of Mills. He has all the tools, but he reminds of the type of guys Belichick has gone for in the past, Cassels or Brisset, Etling etc. Guys with not much of a record, diamonds in the rough.

Cassel was basically the QB equivalent of "human clay."

Brissett was drafted with a very specific need in mind: someone to back up Garoppolo if/when Brady's suspension occurred.

I don't know what the Etling pick was all about.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Cassel was basically the QB equivalent of "human clay."

Brissett was drafted with a very specific need in mind: someone to back up Garoppolo if/when Brady's suspension occurred.

I don't know what the Etling pick was all about.

7th round flyer? Is there a lot of deep meaning in 7th round QB picks?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

It was even worse than I thought in there...At least ownership has finally admitted publicly that there have been Way Too Many misses - including during the draft's first two days - than should be acceptable, especially when considering the reputation of the man making the Final Decisions...

I don't know why Greer is covering. NKeal Harry crushed his workout with...McDaniels. same as why we got Chad Jackson, Sony Michel, Laurence Maroney, and why Denver got Tim Tebow. Belichick is getting screwed by the worst talent evaluator OC in the league that he listens to over his own national scouts.


.

 

[catent]

I don't know why Greer is covering. NKeal Harry crushed his workout with...McDaniels. same as why we got Chad Jackson, Sony Michel, Laurence Maroney, and why Denver got Tim Tebow. Belichick is getting screwed by the worst talent evaluator OC in the league that he listens to over his own national scouts.


.

Maybe Breer isn't "covering" but instead actually knows what he's talking about? Just a thought.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

@reamer @patsfanfromoversea @Mark Morse @long distance @Joker @KontradictioN @patfanken @One-If-By-Sea @borisman @Scotty @Uptown @upstater1 @Tony2046 @captain stone @DaBruinz @masterbouncer @JarOfMayo51 @State @ctpatsfan77 @Steve:Section 102

Apologies for the time but it was tough sorting through all the info. Last year I had one sheet with everything available. This year was a bit different, working off a few different sheets.

Anyway this is a decent representation of what a Patriots board would look like imo. I definitely plan on cutting some names. I want to be around 100. I'm around 120-130 now, I don't include on udfa prospects. It's said the Pats have a notoriously small board. Anywhere from 75-125 names. I have to think it changes every so often but again I'll try to get as close to 100 as possible. Updating it all the way until draft day.

How did I get here? Every team has a type. Whether its a DB's arm length, LB's 40 or OL 3 cone. Every team looks for certain things in different positions. Pats are no different.

I looked at height, weight, arm length, testing #'s for certain drills we favor for each position and then placed each prospect where I think their value is. This is the most subjective part of the process for sure. I have a good hit rate compared to the NFL, a little less so I feel good about where each prospect is in terms of value.

So I need a little help cutting down. Give me some suggestions. Someone not on there that should be? Let me know and I'll definitely consider it. This board is perfect amd I definitely make mistakes so please speak up. Fwiw there's a decent chance the prospect just didn't perform well in w/e drill we favor for that position.

I'll post this on the 1st page if anyone is looking and can't find this post. I should be done with me personal grades tonight/tomorrow so I'll post those as well when I'm done.

2021 PTP BOARD

NEP 2021 NFL DRAFT BOARD.xlsx

Microsoft Excel Workbook

1drv.ms

Thanks BGC for the great stuff, i was really looking forward to read it
Just a couple of thoughts/questions who popped into my mind after the first reading:
- For a relative new guy, can you please name the certain numbers the pats are looking at the different positions like idk vert jump, 3 cone stuff like that? This would be really helpful.
- Players I thought might make the list: Teven Jenkins, Kelvin Joseph, Jabril Cox and Daelin Hayes. Can you explain why they didn't make it?
- I wondered why Sample and Smith are rated higher than Odeyingbo and Turner

Really appreciate the input thanks !

 

[Steve102]

@BaconGrundleCandy This is amazing work. You should be commended. A couple guys I had read about I had questions on:

Reed Blankenship, S, Middle Tenn. Everything I have read on this guy is he's a perfect Patriot. Late Rounder.
Tommy Togiai, DL, Ohio State. You still have him as 3rd rounder. Do you think the 225x40 bench from his pro day will bump him up?
Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama. No love for the multi position player and the Saban relationship?

I am interested in your thoughts on these guys when you have a minute. Again, well done!

 

[Uptown]

FWIW..

 

[JarOfMayo51]

...So from there on, the scouts would just be gatherers, which frustrated plenty of them, and played into the exodus in the scouting department the last few years. It also, as some saw it, led to misses like N’Keal Harry in 2019. Harry killed his 30 visit that spring and had a college coach, Todd Graham, who was close to Belichick. In that end, without more input from scouts who preferred Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown, the coach wound up leaning on his own experience with Harry, rather than the red flags his scouts planted, and lost a golden opportunity to fill a hole on his roster....

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[DaBruinz]

How would Breer know whom the Scout's wanted? It's not like they would openly talk to him about who was on the board. Breer hasn't been on the "inside" of the Patriots for a long time..

 

[DaBruinz]

Probably for the picks and the salary cap ramifications of not having to pay the #4 overall slot.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

How would Breer know whom the Scout's wanted? It's not like they would openly talk to him about who was on the board. Breer hasn't been on the "inside" of the Patriots for a long time..

Many scouts have left the team to join other organizations. Maybe he’s hearing it directly from them. Obviously they’ll be self-serving (“oh no, I didn’t advocate for the bad guy who was picked, I wanted the good player but I was overruled!”) but that in and of itself doesn’t mean it’s not true. Could be, but not necessarily.

Frankly, the scouts leaving the organization part is the more concerning piece to me, and I can’t say I’m fully surprised. Belichick runs a tight ship and has his hierarchy, and it’s got to be tough to be working for someplace where you don’t think you’re valued. You’ve seen other teams war rooms on video — many have the entire scouting organization in there and it’s like Christmas for them, the culmination of their year of hard work. Whereas the Patriots have practically no one. I completely understand why BB does it that way — he wants to be planned and organized, ready for all contingencies, and doesn’t want last minute chaos as someone wants to reassess the rankings to pound for his pet project player while the team’s on clock — but it can foster exactly the type of ill feelings among the scouts that Breer is talking about. Especially when they can see how their peers are treated elsewhere. BB needs to find a middle ground where those guys can feel more appreciated and part of the process, while still preventing potential chaos in the draft room. They pay him the big bucks, he needs to figure out how to do that. Sounds like he’s trying, which is great to read.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

@BaconGrundleCandy This is amazing work. You should be commended. A couple guys I had read about I had questions on:

Reed Blankenship, S, Middle Tenn. Everything I have read on this guy is he's a perfect Patriot. Late Rounder.

Yea he's been on my radar for years now. He's heading back to school.

Tommy Togiai, DL, Ohio State. You still have him as 3rd rounder. Do you think the 225x40 bench from his pro day will bump him up?

Maybe but not for me. A little undersized with shorter arms. He'll have an uphill battle but love his strength and toughness. Feel like 3rd is a good spot for him.

Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama. No love for the multi position player and the Saban relationship?

Nah Moses was pretty bad this year. Maybe as a late-mid round flier.

I don't pretend to have any sources like the big shots in the media but I talk to a few people as plugged in as it gets for a few schools (alums, ex-player/coaches). Bama is one and I've heard Saban will tell it how it is in terms of a players value. So if I guy wasn't ready or good enough he'll let you know. I'm sure Bill will get all the details, good & bad.

I am interested in your thoughts on these guys when you have a minute. Again, well done!

Thanks Steve

 

[borisman]

One other thing Kraft may have meant is the size of the Pats draft. It's been reported that it may be the smallest in the league and we've likely passed on players that turned out to be good players that possibly weren't even on the Pats board. The draft board needs to be expanded.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Thanks BGC for the great stuff, i was really looking forward to read it
Just a couple of thoughts/questions who popped into my mind after the first reading:
- For a relative new guy, can you please name the certain numbers the pats are looking at the different positions like idk vert jump, 3 cone stuff like that? This would be really helpful.

PM me later it'll probably be easier through there.

- Players I thought might make the list: Teven Jenkins, Kelvin Joseph, Jabril Cox and Daelin Hayes.

It's not finished yet. Jenkins will be on there if hes not. I forgot a few guys between trying to keep the board small and looking through all the info.

Can you explain why they didn't make it?
- I wondered why Sample and Smith are rated higher than Odeyingbo and Turner

So the "rankings" aren't as concrete as mine. I'll tinker once I finish my own grades but I'll most likely have those guys higher.

Really appreciate the input thanks !

 

[upstater1]

Funny thing about this scout story and Harry is that we don't even know how Deebo Samuel is going to turn out. Certainly better than Harry, but if he flames out from here, which he certainly could, it's not like we'll be ruing the day we didn't pick him.

Always remember the Will McD inside scoop from 96 when Grier went against Parcells wishes and took Terry Glenn instead of Cedric Jones or Tony Brackens (who went in the 2nd round).

It sounded damning when Will McD. reported it, but a few years later Cedric Jones was a colossal bust, and Glenn was still a pretty good WR (not comparing him to Harry).

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

One other thing Kraft may have meant is the size of the Pats draft. It's been reported that it may be the smallest in the league and we've likely passed on players that turned out to be good players that possibly weren't even on the Pats board. The draft board needs to be expanded.

Fwiw I believe every teams board is a lot smaller than most of the fans/public think. I would be shocked if most weren't between 100-150, closer to 100-125. I just think New England's might be more to the extreme but who knows.

How many people have seen multiple big boards from us? Lots of speculation but I bet no team has hundreds of players on their board. Like us they'll cut down looking for their types.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Haven't pumped this propaganda in a bit. Remember ....

 

[captain stone]

Haven't pumped this propaganda in a bit. Remember ....

...Unless he's at the very end of the first round and his name is Nick Chubb...