GM LOUNGE

[captain stone]

All 4 will probably be gone by #96 but one could fall to #77 (the pick that was ridiculously taken away). So in this sense the ****ing NFL theft was significant. BB will not have a hole from #45 to #96 so he'll create a pick in between and that one could be used on C if Andrews goes elsewhere.
I still believe there's a good chance Andrews returns but they will have options. With the surrounding OL talent and somewhat limited passing offence Karras should do ok. Mack is still playing well if they want more solid option for a year..

btw Finney's gone back to PIT

Yeah I just read that this very morning, thanks...Too bad...Editing now...

 

[captain stone]

Your picks in order:

#14 Andrews (29) $6M
#17 Mongo Jr (28) - $4.2M
#21 Tyler Larsen (30) - ST
#35 Dan Feeney (27)
BJ Finney (29) - extended by PIT
#73 Pat Elflein (27) - Guard

There aren't a lot of good options but I guess bringing back Mongo at a slight downgrade is one, if you want to save $$. You still need a back-up (draft).

Yeah there are some C/G prospects I would like to grab with our 3rd/4th-rounders, but we've had TWO of those picks Stolen from us, so now we have More needs than we do picks...Damn shame...Scrounging in the UDFA & Street FA barrels looks like the place to find backups now...

 

[captain stone]

@OT 2020

So Isaiah Wynn = Slightly above mediocre?

 

[long distance]

So Isaiah Wynn = Slightly above mediocre?

Thats quite a positive take coming from you Baby steps..

 

[long distance]

Another decent NE FA discussion..

 

[jah]

So Isaiah Wynn = Slightly above mediocre?

Do you think those lines in the middle of each axis represent "mediocre"?

 

[captain stone]

Do you think those lines in the middle of each axis represent "mediocre"?

I was counting the number of names above his.

 

[long distance]

OK LETS GO

During this evening/night ill be posting my ROSTER REBUILD PICTURE.
Id appreciate joining me for debates before it all explodes tomorrow noon..

Let me start with the abstract roster structure i find most sustainable and follow what NE does often as well.
This will be my blueprint - more or less - for filling the “empty“ roster spots.
(this is just general orientation - a lot is then about opportunities)


top contracts = 40% of total cap space

franchise QB = 30M* (*avg cap hit)
shut down CB = 15M -- FA/TRADE/DRAFT
franchise LT = 15M -- DRAFT/TRADE
top FS = 10M -- DRAFT/FA
slot rec (WR2/TE1) = 8M -- FA/DRAFT
3xST (P, K, LS) = 8M avg cap hit

high medium contract = c.30% of total cap space

(starting QB - 10-20M)
WR1 - 10M — TRADE/DRAFT
ED1 - 10M — DRAFT
DL1 - 8M -- DRAFT/FA/TRADE
IOL1 - 8M — DRAFT/TRADE/FA
RT2 - 8M -- DRAFT/TRADE/FA
LB1 - 8M — DRAFT/FA/TRADE
CB2 or slot DB - 8M — DRAFT/UDFA/FA/TRADE

low medium contract for position = c. 15-20% of total cap space
RB1-3, DL2, DE2, CB3/slot, IOL2-3, LB2, TE2, WR3

the rest is vet min territory (doesn't affect the cap) to max 2M apy = 1M cap hit


The more higher contracts you can replace with rookies, the deeper quality field you can build, as you can move lower positions upwards.
(f.e. most cost valuable player on current NE roster = Onwenu)

 

[long distance]

For appetizer here are MIGUEL'S FA PICKS as presented on Locked on patriots podcast
(last week before it got busy)



bridge QB > 8M cap #

WR1 > 11M cap # (17-20apy) Cory Davis

Adam Butler 6M cap #

LB/Milano 5.4 cap # (Schoebert contract)

Andrews 5.5 cap #

WR2 (Humphries deal) 5M cap #

Guy 4M cap #

TE1 Jonnu Smith 3.5M cap # (Hooper) ?

Bethel 2M cap #

+ tender JC Jackson, Jakub Johnson

22M remaining of 64M (TOP 51 incl)

before cuts, restructures, extensions

opt-outs on 53: Hightower & Bolden

---

Some comments:

- Nice job, measured, nothing too greedy, safely within Pats culture
- Miguel like Pats players so they might be a bit overvalued here - and others undervalued
- Newton came 3M cheaper
- Milano indeed signed contract similar to Shoebert last yr, just 1y shorter and less signing bonus so his 2021 cap # is much higher - 7.8M
(thankfully he didn't sign this kind of contract here)
- Bethel did indeed re-sign w NE 3y/6M but his cap # will be significantly lower than what generous Miguel would pay him
- Adam Butler is the biggest head scratcher here but we will soon know

 

[long distance]

CAP CALCULATIONS

A reminder how accounting cap works.

I will be using Cap Hit as a term to qualify how much Free Cap Space under Top 51 rule certain signing actually takes away.

I will use projected APY (average per year) contract numbers where possible despite majority of contracts will be lower.

On average 1st year Cap Number is c. 30% lower than reported APY (maybe even more the way NE construct contracts).
So projected/reported 10 APY contract has (on average) about 7M Cap Number in 1st year.

Of that Cap Number you must deduct the 51st contract that the new higher contract replaces under TOP 51 RULE.
That is usually around 0.8M. So Cap Hit = Cap Number minus 0.8M. In case of 10M APY - Cap Hit would be on average c. 6M.
The longer the contract the lower 1st y cap hit will be.


My starting point will be 60M.

Miguel has his # at 65.3M
That accounts for Newton, Cannon, JC Jackson 1st round tender & Jakub Johnson ERFA tender.
It does not account for Brown and Bethel.
Brown + Bethel could take away some 6-7M (cap hit), but also JC could be tendered at 2nd rounder so 1.4M cheaper than presumed by Miguel



________________________________________
here reposting more from earlier in the thread:

1.
The 2021 cap # will be 20-40% lower than average per year contract.
So if you want and go spend 60M of Pats 2021 Cap Space - you can sign c 80M worth of apy contracts.

f.e.: Hightower 2017 - one of top LB on the market — reported 4y/35.5M = 8.9M apy (all projections well over 10) = 5.3M cap hit in 2017
This is a bit backloaded since Pats were well in SB window. Here is more normal example of signing solid vet:
John Simon - solid starter/rotation > first reported 2y/7.1M = 3.5M apy turned into 2y/4.4M = 2.2apy = 1.8M cap hit (projected iirc 2y/12M)

2.
Those Cap Hits are actually even lower bc of the TOP 51 contracts rule. Every new contract higher than 51st contract replaces that contract. Usually that contract is around 0.8M. Pats already have 62 players signed. Current 51st contract is already around 0.8M.
That means Pats only lost around 4.5M cap space signing Hightower on 9M apy contract.

3.
Another common mistake made in offseason roster building projection is Cap Space Hit for combined 2021 Draft Class.
While the cost for Pats Draft Class is currently projected at 9M most these contracts will not make TOP 51. Only 1st and 2nd round picks (if they keep them) would make the top 51. So when you account TOP 51 rule only 1.5M would be taken off Free Cap.
@Miguel or @Sciz can correct me if im too much off.

4.
Also - even if Pats don't NEED to cut or restructure players, some additional 2021 cap will come from that anyway (high priced opt-outs etc)

5.
Projected apy contracts (that i will include in my positional listings to follow) will probably be even lower than normally due to tighter League Cap - especially after top tier.

6.
180M is the new floor now & expectations are higher - speculations between 185-195.


BTW - as projected earlier, Pats are now #3 in 2021 Free Cap after Indy traded for Wentz (and lost 25.4M). This means they are even better situated to take advantage of the bargain FA market 2021.
Pats are #1 in effective Cap Space in 2022!


Bottom line: 63M+ Free Cap can buy you a lot of team. Hope you can enjoy your roster building even more.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

How's he doing? I missed his articles/rankings on nepatriotsdraft.com during the last two years...

He's good. Doing the right thing. Family, work, kids, he's busy. I've been telling him we need to start a Pats podcast 1-2 times a months - draft prospects, pats news etc but he never has the time and truthfully I've been busy too. I want start one though eventually.

 

[long distance]

REPLACING PLAYERS LOST

Ok, lets start with a little exercise of re-signings and replacings of NE starters/rotational pieces that are Free Agents:
(remember: numbers are Cap Hits under TOP 51 rule as explained above)


Newton > Newton + Draft = 4.7M +

(Cannon > Brown)

Thuney > Onwenu = 0

Andrews > Andrews (plan B Mack/Karras + Draft 3rd round one of top 4 C) = 4M

Guy > Tomlinson = 7M

A.Butler > Guy (Anderson) = 2.5M

Wise > Wise or similar (Basham/Blair/Autry/Jenkins) or upgrade (Wolfe/Hyder/Houston) or Draft (Paye/Basham/Turner) = 4M or 6M or 0

Simon > upgrade+younger = Bowser = 4M

White > JJ Taylor + draft = 0

J-MAC > JoJu Williams = 1M

Byrd > upgrade WR 2 > Samuel = 5M

ST = 1M
Bethel > Bethel
C.Davis > King or vice versa

—

POSSIBLE VET MIN/DEPTH/TC
Burkhead, Eluemunor, Copeland, Calhoun,


_____

Here a nice article on rebuilding within:

In the midst of a rebuild, the Patriots need to get back to their roots

Related: Why re-signing Cam Newton is a good move for the Patriots

www.patspulpit.com

here a post - answer to @patfanken - from last week that holds pretty well for now
_____________________________________
I feel pretty certain they would like to bring back Andrews and expect/hope for some sort of Hightower scenario. Since they couldn't agree on extension my guess is they are keeping the communication open and Pats will try to match his market price. Projections vary from 6-8M apy and i wonder how far BB will go. If it settles around 3y/18M (c. 4M cap hit) like PFF is suggesting (lowest estimation out there) im confident he stays in NE. Miguel suggested 3y/22.5M with 5.5M salary cap # in 2021 which would take away c. 4.7M cap (TOP 51 rule). This might be on he high side for BB although lesser C have 10M apy existing contracts.

Also feel they would like to bring back Guy and that should be no prob. around 4M apy taking some 2.5M of cap in 2021.

I fully expect they bring back JC Jackson 1st or 2nd* round RFA tender. 1st rd tender = 4.8M = 4M adjusted cap hit in 2021
& Jakob Johnson - ERFA tender (close to 0 cap hit)

For the rest much depends on how market goes and what overall strategy BB takes. At first i didn't think this year BB will go for comp picks but am not so sure anymore. Besides Thuney who i believe will sign elsewhere for top contract there are a few more NE FAs that could qualify for FA lost in comp pick calculation: Wise, Butler, White, Newton, Byrd, maybe some more. So if they get good offers id guess BB will let them go. Newton is a wild card, they might want to bring him back if other options dont work out.

From the players that are unlikely to qualify for FA lost id guess they will bring back at least one of the two ST aces - Bethel and C.Davis - although some top ST players in the league are hitting the market as well. They would take about 1M cap each, maybe even less this yr.

Burkhead and Eluemunor are nice depth pieces to bring back if they get forgotten in first part of FA. Id guess about 1.5M cap hit each, possibly less. Jason McCourty could be a later vet option if he decides to continue for low $. Maybe Moncrief as well. But this is close to vet minimum territory.

They could bring back some guys for TC like Calhoun, DT Davis, Ferentz.. vet min.

If not signed elsewhere Folk might be there in the “shadow“ roster if the two young kickers both fail to satisfy in June/August.

So around 15M in this scenario.
If they bring back some of the mid tier FAs from the potential “FA lost“ group add c. 4M (2021 cap hit w TOP 51 rule) on avg per player (some will take a bit more and some less)

-.-

 

[long distance]

@ QB

QB POOL


NE ROSTER

4Stidham (25, 2022, $0.8), 8Dolegala (24,futures)


FREE AGENTS top market: 40M-apy 2021 proj. FT=24M

Prescott, 28, DAL [40]— FT 37.7
Fitzpatrick, 39, MIA [PFF:1/10] —
Winston, 27, NO [7-10; PFF:1/5] — NO, CHI —
Newton, 32, NE — [PFF:1/5]
T.Taylor, 31, LAC — [PFF:2/10]
Dalton, 34, DAL [7, PFF:2/10] —
Brissett, 29, IND — [PFF:2/14]
Trubisky, 27, CHI — [8; PFF:2/15]
Mullens, 26, SF —
K.Allen, 25, WAS —
Sudfeld, 28, PHI —
Bortles, 30, DEN —
Glennon, 32, JAX — [PFF:1/1.5]
B.Allen, 29, CIN —
CJ Beathard, 28, SF — [PFF:2/6]
Griffin, 32, TB —
Shaub, 40, ATL —
McCarron, 31, HOU —
Flacco, 36, NYJ — [PFF:1/2]
--
Heinicke, 28, WAS — RFA — WAS 2y/8.8M


TRADE OPTIONS/CUTS

Stafford, 33, DET — $20+$23 — LAR, IND, SF, WAS, CAR — LAR : Goff, '21 3rd, ’22 1st, ’23 1st
Goff, 27, LAR —> DET
Wentz, 29, PHI (25.4,22,25,26) — IND, CHI — trade to IND ’21 3rd ’22 2nd(1st)
[Watson, 26, HOU (10.5,35,37,32,32) (no-trade)
[Carr, 30, LV (19.5, 19.8)
[Cousins, 33, MIN (21,35) — SF,
[Garoppolo, 29, SF (25, 25) (no-trade) [2-round+]
[Ryan, 36, ATL (23, 23.5, 28 )
[Bridgewater, 29, CAR (17/10, 20) — possible cut —
[Mariota, 28, LV (11.4) [5-round] — NE, WAS?,
[Darnold, 24, NYJ (4.8) (5y.opt=25Mfgtd) [2rd] — WAS, CAR, SF
[Minshew, 25, JAX (1) [late round]
[A.Smith, 37, WAS (18.8,20.8/14.7) — possible cut/retire —


DRAFT

QB *Trevor Lawrence #16 Clemson (6’6-213-10“) - 1
QB Zach Wilson #1 BYU (6’3-210) - 1
QB *Justin Fields #1 Ohio State (6'3-228) - 1
QB Trey Lance # N Dakota St (6’3-220) - 1/2
QB Mac Jones #10 Alabama (6’25-217) - 1/2
QB Kyle Trask #11 Florida (6’5-240) - D2/3
QB *Davis Mills #15 Stanford (6’4-212) - D2/3
QB Jamie Newman # Wake (6’25-235-30”) - D3
QB Kellen Mond #11 Texas A&M (6’25-205) - D3

INTERESTING POSSIBLE UDFA

QB Brady Davis #1 Illinois St (6’3-210)
QB Shane Buechele #7 SMU (6'1-207)
QB Sam Ehlinger #11 Texas (6’1-222)
QB Feleipe Franks # Arkansas (6’6-234)
QB Ian Book 12# ND (6’0-210)



[8; PFF:2/15] = projected apy contract (2021 cap hit 20-40% lower) - projections are not mine..
(6.9,6.3,6.3) = cap hits of remaining contract yrs. black is guaranteed, grey not gtd
FT = Franchise Tag

QB (2-3/3-4) = 5M+ cap hit

Newton + Draft 1 + ?Stidham/Dolegala/?


Comments:

- numbers mean 2-3 players on the 53 roster / 3-4 in Training Camp (Cap Hit already explained above)

- I might be in minority but with Newton signed BB has leverage to wait for opportunities for possible upgrade/future to come to him.
To me this team can be / will be competitive with Cam or any of the top 5 QBs.
I doubt any QB will be ready/trusted to start the season so if Pats draft QB high the likelihood of Cam starting increases.

- Since i don't have significant preference on top 5 QBs i wouldn't be too aggressive to move up. While moving up for a QB you strongly believe is your future QB is never a bad business (you get the investment in draft picks back in cap space) it is a question how far Pats can go. #2 & #3 picks are out of the question no matter the compensation (NYJ & MIA), #4 as well since ATL should be drafting one - and at that point QB you really like might be gone. On the other hand if you do like a QB and decide to Draft one in the 1st round then this is the year. Next year's class doesn't look to have 5 deep quality at the top of the draft - and also Pats original drafting position will likely be lower. The class below top tier should be deeper so some good QB prospects could be available all through 2nd round.
I would probably prepare myself for a reasonable trade up having a ready-made deal in the works with DET. If my choice is Trey Lance or Mac Jones there is a good chance that one of them falls closer to 15.

- If i miss on one of the top QBs i trade down for additional high second or even future first and can take a flyer on one of the mid round QBs. After Draft id keep my options open if opportunity for upgrade presents itself.

- I wouldn't mind a proper ride with Cam anyway. Im not sure Jimmy would be significant upgrade with the way i see the team will be constructed esp. keeping in mind that trading for him would take away 2rd pick and almost 25M of cap space = 5 quality starters.

- If i do get one of top 5 QBs in the Draft then id cut (or low trade) Stidham and have someone like Dolegala in TC and later on Practice Squad.

 

[long distance]

@RB


RB+FB (4+1/6+2) = 0-1M cap


Michel - Harris - JJ Taylor - Bolden/?Rex + Draft 6-7 + UDFA

Johnson + Mason



Comments:

- I offer opportunity to JJ to step in White's shoes and i feel good about it esp. if Cam is QB. White who was perfect for Tom can better use his skill set elswhere. I believe Michel and Harris can step up at receiving as they've shown before.

- If Bolden opts in he can enter RB rotation behind powerful OL and take his place on ST

- Rex is a wild card bc i like him so. Dont see the need but if he cant get gig elsewhere id bring him back at least for TC on a 1y deal.
But i don't like to keep an extra roster spot for RB again so id keep only one of Bolden/Rex in that case.

- I like very much Demetric Felton in draft but see no need in drafting RB high again. There are some nice options in later rounds or even UDFA - so someone to quietly develop on PS.

- I am very tempted to draft Mason to have again a proper FB destroyer who can also catch a ball or two - but i doubt BB would move in from Johnson bc he is doing a decent job and saves one roster spot in TC and Bill can be stingy about those things..

 

[long distance]

@ TE


TE (3/6) = 5-6M cap


TE1/HB — SMITH (7-8M apy) = 6M 2021 cap hit


TE2/HB/ST — Asiasi = 1M, *Keene = 1M


TE3/ST — MANHERTZ (2M apy) = 1.5M, *Izzo = 1M, *Bates/Soehner (UDFA)



Comments:

- Bringing 2 TE vets might be a bit rich but if opportunity is there, why not

- While Asiasi and Keene deserve at least one full preseason/normal season to see what they can be on Sundays, nothing that they've shown so far leads to believe they can carry significant part of the offence just yet. This position was mishandled for 3 years now so its time to stop playing around and address the best TE option available - bc especially in what NE offence will be predicated to (run first w lesser passing QB skill/experience) proper TE1 is almost essential to relief the pains.

- Some could argue Henry is a better option for either Cam or rookie being a bigger and possibly more reliable target, but id go with Smith as more athletic, better overall target who can create planty yds on his own and is a better run blocker fulll of experience from TEN run offense. If Ertz or Brate get cut and there's too much competition for Henry & Smith they would be intriguing options as well since they would not count for compi picks formula.

- I wrote about Manhertz earlier in the thread - the best blocker/QB protector is on the market and i just cant miss the opportunity to make a strong OL even more dominant. If i can get him below Free Agent Gained threshold (at around 2M) then its a no brainer.

GM LOUNGE

Have a bit of time on my hand over next month or so & w this being a very special offseason in general & Pats particular i decided to invest some in this thread. The purpose of this thread (hopefully) is to present as comprehensive Pats 2021 ROSTER BUILDING OPTIONS picture as possible so I hope...

www.patsfans.com

- TE is not too deep position in Draft and unless Pitts falls to 15 and we go QB plan B i would pass on the rest since i drafted 2 just last year for a hefty cost in draft capital and the need is - proven NFL vet. I would bring one UDFA to TC. Bates did some nice things in Senior Bowl and is ST ace, Soehner is a big, nasty, athletic blocker that looks like Manhertz and played everything from FB to OL.

-

 

[long distance]

@ WR


WR (5-6/9-11) = 8-12M cap


FULLER//TY/SAMUEL/M.JONES - ?Edelman/R/E Moore D2/BROWN - ?Harry/HIGGINS/PERRIMAN/COLE - Meyers - Olszewski* - D3/VET MIN


Lee - Zuber - D.Smith - Wilkerson + UDFA


FA: Perriman/Agholor/Brown/Cole/Reynolds (Sanders,Golden Tate)


? TRADE: OBJ; after June1: Julio Jones



Comments:

- WR position is a mess judging from the outside: Will Edelman be healthy enough to still play a season in the NFL? Is Harry a trade candidate?
Hard to call decisions with that much uncertainty at the top of the position that you have no info. So I'll assume that Edelman can play another season but more in later Amendola rotational capacity with focus on bringing him healthy to December/Jan.

- I want to go into the season with 5-6 viable WR options bc its not the top WR that moves the needle in big games but the quality of depth as argued here: GM LOUNGE

- Myers stepped up nicely last yr so he should be a nice homegrown rotational/depth piece as WR 3/4. I feel Olszewski could slide into Edelman's route and step up in the slot. If my feelings are right about him then I wouldn't chase some of the Edelman replacements listed below. For the moment id keep him as WR5/6. Zuber showed flashes and is a wild card for borderline roster/PS.

- As you can tell from my blue print contracts roster structure - i dont pay top $ for WR1 in FA bc 20M apy can buy lots of goods:

GM LOUNGE

I was just talking with @midwestpatsfan about Stone Forsythe How's he doing? I missed his articles/rankings on nepatriotsdraft.com during the last two years...

www.patsfans.com

GM LOUNGE

I was just talking with @midwestpatsfan about Stone Forsythe How's he doing? I missed his articles/rankings on nepatriotsdraft.com during the last two years...

www.patsfans.com

- Im always looking for trade options for top WRs but at the moment unfortunately there might not be a lot there OBJ may be available and could be intriguing option if BB believes he can be dependable - but with his history and enough questions at WR position as it is Id prefer to bring in dependable weapon in FA.

- There is a lot to choose from in this FA and i don't have clear preferences so i'll keep many options opened here and see where FA goes. There will be ton of value a bit later in FA, maybe already from Day 2 so no need to push too hard.

- WR1b/2 4 options i would prefer are Fuller (if his price falls under 15M apy range), TY if he is not taken early (at around 8M), Marvin Jones who is also on the older side that id prefer but is just so consistently productive and still plays at his highest level -although he is on the record wanting to go to “contender“ - but if $ is equal (around 8M) id go with Samuel, young, versatile WR that covers a lot of ground and can also take top of D. Familiarity with Cam plays a role here as well (unless he wants to stay in CAR).

- So if id move Edelman to more of rotational/late season weapon - i might bring in another mid range vet to solidify top 2 positions (although this doesn't qualify as a pure need anymore) or - what would be more sensible - Draft WR on Day 2 - Rondale or Elijah Moore should be productive additions from Day 1 - although track record of drafting WRs is not too promising. Reynolds should come relatively cheap but might be too similar with Meyers so maybe id go with John Brown who was cut and wouldn't count for comp picks formula. Plenty of other options that should be available in the 2-5M apy range when the dust settles. Sanders and maybe Golden Tate could be 1y older options that Pats chased for a long time, Humphries as well if he can return to NFL (concussions). Returning Byrd (at least for TC) could be an option as well later in FA esp. if he falls under 2.5M threshold.

- If Harry is traded than another WR would be needed. The trade could be player for player. If i draft slot then another bigger WR in FA is an option. I love Higgins and Cole, Perriman, Sneed are other probable upgrades as well.

- More solid WR are on the chop block atm like Mike Williams, Crowder, Lockett so plenty to choose from for different strategies.

- Draft: if #15 is not for QB and one of the top 4 receivers falls there (Chase, Waddle, Smith, Pitts) id definitely consider it. That would of course affect dynamics in the second part of FA and Harry trade as well. In any case this is a deep WR draft full of nice options so id try to double dip if i can.


:: So - secure one of my top options early in FA, maybe take opportunity on one of the cuts in 2-5Mapy range, doube dip in the draft and revisit situation after June 1.

-

 

[luuked]

Two comments on the RB post:

- I offer opportunity to JJ to step in White's shoes and i feel good about it esp. if Cam is QB. White who was perfect for Tom can better use his skill set elswhere. I believe Michel and Harris can step up at receiving as they've shown before.

The thing to keep in mind with whoever replaces White is his often ignored but essential ability to be very dependable in pass-pro and blitz pickup. That is until last year when he inexplicably had issues with it. JJ's ability to be consistent in this area and what he has shown last year in practice will determine if BB will be fine with that transition or if they will bring in real competition.

White is a goner to either Miami or the Bucs.

I am very tempted to draft Mason to have again a proper FB destroyer who can also catch a ball or two - but i doubt BB would move in from Johnson bc he is doing a decent job and saves one roster spot in TC and Bill can be stingy about those things..

How does Dan Vitale fit into that picture ?

 

[luuked]

Some could argue Henry is a better option for either Cam or rookie being a bigger and possibly more reliable target, but id go with Smith as more athletic, better overall target who can create planty yds on his own and is a better run blocker fulll of experience from TEN run offense.

On the one hand you are saying it is time to stop playing around but on the other you are just projecting Smith to be a better overall target than Henry just because of his athletic profile. Henry has already proven he is an actual receiving threat (1000 yards more in the same number of seasons) whereas with Jonnu everyone keeps coming back to his "potential" but somehow he never has broken 450 yards a season.

The one thing that is pretty clear to me is that the gap between Henry and Jonnu as receivers is bigger than the gap as blockers. Henry is still a pretty good blocker and thus more versatile.

If you take the money aside the decision between Henry and Jonnu is relatively easy. If you want the better blocker who has receiving upside then Smith is your guy. If you want someone who is an accomplished receiving option then you go for Henry. Of course you can't just ignore the money and Henry will be a bigger investment in terms of guarantees. But as the move for Gilmore in 2017 has shown that additional cap hit might not really matter to BB if Henry fits the role they want to fill very well.

A final thought on this is that if you go to Mockdraftable and check Jonnu's profile one of the top comparisons that come up for him is Dalton Keene.

 

[long distance]

Two comments on the RB post:



The thing to keep in mind with whoever replaces White is that an ignored but key part of White's value was how dependable he was in pass-pro and blitz pickup. That is until last year when he inexplicably had issues with it. JJ's ability to be consistent in this area and what he has shown last year in practice will determine if BB will be fine with that transition or if they will bring in real competition.

White is a goner to either Miami or the Bucs.



How does Dan Vitale fit into that picture ?

Opt-outs look to be an afterthought even more than expected - even those who actually played significant seasons for their teams.
So he is an afterthought for me atm. BB might differ of course

 

[luuked]

@ WR


WR (5-6/9-11) = 8-12M cap


FULLER//TY/SAMUEL/M.JONES - ?Edelman/R/E Moore D2/BROWN - ?Harry/HIGGINS/PERRIMAN/COLE - Meyers - Olszewski* - D3/VET MIN


Lee - Zuber - D.Smith - Wilkerson + UDFA


FA: Perriman/Agholor/Brown/Cole/Reynolds (Sanders,Golden Tate)


? TRADE: OBJ; after June1: Julio Jones



Comments:

- WR position is a mess judging from the outside: Will Edelman be healthy enough to still play a season in the NFL? Is Harry a trade candidate?
Hard to call decisions with that much uncertainty at the top of the position that you have no info. So I'll assume that Edelman can play another season but more in later Amendola rotational capacity with focus on bringing him healthy to December/Jan.

- I want to go into the season with 5-6 viable WR options bc its not the top WR that moves the needle in big games but the quality of depth as argued here: GM LOUNGE

- Myers stepped up nicely last yr so he should be a nice homegrown rotational/depth piece as WR 3/4. I feel Olszewski could slide into Edelman's route and step up in the slot. If my feelings are right about him then I wouldn't chase some of the Edelman replacements listed below. For the moment id keep him as WR5/6. Zuber showed flashes and is a wild card for borderline roster/PS.

- As you can tell from my blue print contracts roster structure - i dont pay top $ for WR1 in FA bc 20M apy can buy lots of goods:

GM LOUNGE

I was just talking with @midwestpatsfan about Stone Forsythe How's he doing? I missed his articles/rankings on nepatriotsdraft.com during the last two years...

www.patsfans.com

GM LOUNGE

I was just talking with @midwestpatsfan about Stone Forsythe How's he doing? I missed his articles/rankings on nepatriotsdraft.com during the last two years...

www.patsfans.com

- Im always looking for trade options for top WRs but at the moment unfortunately there might not be a lot there OBJ may be available and could be intriguing option if BB believes he can be dependable - but with his history and enough questions at WR position as it is Id prefer to bring in dependable weapon in FA.

- There is a lot to choose from in this FA and i don't have clear preferences so i'll keep many options opened here and see where FA goes. There will be ton of value a bit later in FA, maybe already from Day 2 so no need to push too hard.

- WR1b/2 4 options i would prefer are Fuller (if his price falls under 15M apy range), TY if he is not taken early (at around 8M), Marvin Jones who is also on the older side that id prefer but is just so consistently productive and still plays at his highest level -although he is on the record wanting to go to “contender“ - but if $ is equal (around 8M) id go with Samuel, young, versatile WR that covers a lot of ground and can also take top of D. Familiarity with Cam plays a role here as well (unless he wants to stay in CAR).

- So if id move Edelman to more of rotational/late season weapon - i might bring in another mid range vet to solidify top 2 positions (although this doesn't qualify as a pure need anymore) or - what would be more sensible - Draft WR on Day 2 - Rondale or Elijah Moore should be productive additions from Day 1 - although track record of drafting WRs is not too promising. Reynolds should come relatively cheap but might be too similar with Meyers so maybe id go with John Brown who was cut and wouldn't count for comp picks formula. Plenty of other options that should be available in the 2-5M apy range when the dust settles. Sanders and maybe Golden Tate could be 1y older options that Pats chased for a long time, Humphries as well if he can return to NFL (concussions). Returning Byrd (at least for TC) could be an option as well later in FA esp. if he falls under 2.5M threshold.

- If Harry is traded than another WR would be needed. The trade could be player for player. If i draft slot then another bigger WR in FA is an option. I love Higgins and Cole, Perriman, Sneed are other probable upgrades as well.

- More solid WR are on the chop block atm like Mike Williams, Crowder, Lockett so plenty to choose from for different strategies.

- Draft: if #15 is not for QB and one of the top 4 receivers falls there (Chase, Waddle, Smith, Pitts) id definitely consider it. That would of course affect dynamics in the second part of FA and Harry trade as well. In any case this is a deep WR draft full of nice options so id try to double dip if i can.


:: So - secure one of my top options early in FA, maybe take opportunity on one of the cuts in 2-5Mapy range, doube dip in the draft and revisit situation after June 1.

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Personally, I just can't get myself to fully commit to Fuller even though he'd be the ideal receiver for our needs. In 5 years he has never played a full season. And it is not even primarily the contract that worries me -- because that can be addressed with incentives and injury splits -- but the opportunity cost.

I keep coming back to OBJ mostly because the Browns can't seriously be asking for a lot back in a trade for someone coming back from an ACL and most importantly he has no guarantees past this year but could be held on for two more years at a reasonable 15M APY if he can perform as a WR1. Also he seems tight with Cam so I think between that, our strong locker room and BB there wouldn't be much space for him acting out much.

But when would he be able to take a physical ? How does he even look in terms of rehab work. Only the Browns know and I am not sure how to reconcile that with BB's usual risk adverse approach.

I really like Humphries as a buy low option but as you are saying concussions are unpredictable.

I would also like Brown as an upgrade on Byrd but at the same time am wondering if it is worth giving up on the rapport Byrd already has with Cam over what would be small jump up.

Samuel seems like a no brainer as a potential target between his experience with Cam and someone who is versatile but won't require top end market money.