WR MATH
After this yr SB . analysts came up with some data that went against popular believe - and was at the same time not at all surprising - about influence top WRs have on the game in playoffs. The result by EPA metrics (Expected Points Added) was that WR1 influences the game less (almost no influence) than WR2 and that 3rd and 4th receiving options are the difference makers.
This doesn't mean WR1 is not important - it actually influences the game a lot - but many times in big games indirectly. This goes in hand w old BB mantra that you take the strength of opponent away and exploit the weakness. Or going form the opposite direction: the strongest your weakness is the more likely you will have positive outcome.
The problem of KC was not only OL but also the fact that receiving options behind Hill and Kelce did not show up. Watkins, Hardman and Pringle combined 20 yds on 9 targets (Watkins coming back from inj). This was the story throughout their playoffs that was much bumpier ride than expected - they only had two legitimate targets in passing game.
In the last patriots SB run (2014-2018) they had Jules & Gronk as top 2 targets but the 3-4 additional weapons they had to accompany them proved crucial. In the last SB they did not have that so they had to go with robust running game plan and top defence.
If we look at compositions of receiving weapons it was very similar on most part:
no WR1/X, top WR2 (slot/Jules), top TE (Gronk/Bennett), top rec RB (Vereen/White), top WR3 (Amendola/Cooks), solid WR4 (LaFell/Hogan/Mitchell)
These compositions were among most versatile, deepest and cheapest in the league.
Seeing a load of Cap Space now everyone is salivating for top WR1 that costs c. 20M apy - almost as much as the whole aforementioned compositions. It is no surprise that the 5 teams that have WRs on 20M+ apy contracts were not the most successful in NFL - ARI, ATL, LAC, DAL, NO - and even occasional relative success came/or will come with a receit (cap problems).
Composition of the groups and quality depth as deep as possible are the winning ticket that is also sustainable.
The math re. this offseason options continues..